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The Weekly Gut Check - Vol. 98
A Projections Primer Part 3: WRs
7/26/07

Rookie Scouting Portfolio The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information. This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.

Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic, he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider, or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast as you can!


Many fantasy football draft strategies involve owners projecting the statistical performance of players. Although the Gut Check has veered away from projecting stats for every offensive skill player with a likelihood of contributing on a roster, there are still a large percentage of people that either project their own stats, or at least consult the projected stats of others. The Gut Check uses the Cheatsheet Compiler and Draft Buddy as a stats projections resource. These are reasonable figures and they are calculated with a basic historical understanding of NFL stats, which shouldn’t be understated.

The Gut Check has decided to provide a historical overview of fantasy stats that will help owners avoid the common pitfall or projecting player performance—extreme over-and under-valuation of players. Last week, yours truly profiled the quarterback position. This week the focus is receivers.

Historical Stats For Fantasy Receivers

The key components one must consider when projecting receiver performance:

  • Total Fantasy Points
  • Targets
  • Receptions
  • Receiving Yards
  • Receiving Touchdowns

Pretty straightforward, but the way many people project stats they don’t bother to view how each stat influences the other. For instance, one isn’t demonstrating adequate knowledge of the position if one predicts a receiver to gain 1400 yards but sets the receptions so low, the average yardage per catch is 7 to 8 yards higher than the historical average. If one views the best performances with these stats, one should get a stronger idea of how to project performance.

Fantasy PointsThese point totals are for a standard scoring fantasy league: 1 point per 10 yards receiving and 6 points per touchdown:

Yrs WR1 WR2 WR3 WR4 WR5 WR6 WR7 WR8 WR9 WR10 WR11 WR12 WR13 WR14 WR15 WR16 WR17 WR18 WR19 WR20
00-06 237 218 203 196 189 186 184 179 175 168 166 162 157 155 153 148 146 144 142 140
89-99 232 209 196 187 180 176 173 166 162 160 154 151 145 143 142 139 136 133 132 129
78-88 209 182 171 163 159 152 146 142 139 136 132 129 126 124 121 120 118 116 113 111

There was a significant increase in production across the board during the 90s, but when one looks at the point differential between players with in the same decade, the performances look the same: The top 20 wide receivers in this decade are scoring more points than ever before but the differences between each receiver within their ranking is essentially the same as 25-30 years ago. What this means to the fantasy owner is there are generally 1-2 receivers who significantly outscore the next player ranked below them and the rest are merely separated 3-7 points.

When we compare WR stats with RB stats we see (in terms of total fantasy points) the top 20 receivers have actually become less valuable in comparison to backs in the past few decades.

Yrs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
00-06 68.7 77.6 74.3 67.6 61 56.9 57.1 56.3 52.2 51.4 51 50.7 47.8 44.6 43.4 40.6 38 37.1 35.8 35.5
89-99 73.3 64.3 57.2 50.4 42.8 36 29.4 31.2 29.9 25.7 25.5 23.6 24.5 20.4 18.9 13.8 13.8 13.2 11.4 9.65
78-88 128 104 99.7 86 73.6 67.3 61.2 54 49 42.4 39.3 39.3 37.5 34.1 34.4 35.3 34.9 31.7 30 29.1

For all three decades, it appears the top 7-8 backs have significantly better point totals than the top 7-8 WRs then the point gap narrows with the lesser-ranked players. This supports the idea that there are only a few stud receivers in a given year, at most. Even so, the best receivers were at best (in the 90s) ranked on par with the 5th or 6th ranked back and now closer to the 8th or 9th best back in this decade. Interestingly enough, the 90s was a decade where the receiver position temporarily experienced enough of an upswing in points where one would seriously consider drafting a top WR in the mid-first round. And the reason was really one player, Jerry Rice.

Yardage—The top 30 fantasy performances since the advent of the 16-game season is a testament to the 49ers receiver. Rice appears on this list an amazing seven times—and 50% of the top 10 fantasy performances all-time for a receiver are his! The next best receivers in terms of appearances in the top 30 are Marvin Harrison (4) and Randy Moss (3). Rice has the best fantasy-point total (280.8), the best yardage season (1848), the best td total (22), and the third-best reception total in a season (122). If Rice isn’t mentioned as one of the top five players in fantasy football history—and in my opinion real football—you haven’t absorbed the scope of his impact on the game. His stats and impact on the league’s offenses and defenses were revolutionary.

The Top 30 Fantasy Performances
Last First Year Team G Rec Rec Yd Rec Td Fpts
Rice Jerry 1995 SF 16 122 1848 15 280.8
Moss Randy 2003 MIN 16 111 1632 17 265.2
Bruce Isaac 1995 STL 16 119 1781 13 256.1
Rice Jerry 1986 SF 16 86 1570 15 253
Moore Herman 1995 DET 16 123 1686 14 252.6
Rice Jerry 1989 SF 16 82 1483 17 250.3
Clayton Mark 1984 MIA 15 73 1389 18 246.9
Rice Jerry 1993 SF 16 98 1503 15 246.3
Rice Jerry 1987 SF 12 65 1078 22 245.8
Harrison Marvin 2001 IND 16 109 1524 15 242.4
Holt Torry 2003 STL 16 117 1696 12 241.6
Rice Jerry 1994 SF 16 112 1499 13 239.9
Carter Cris 1995 MIN 16 122 1371 17 239.1
Harrison Marvin 1999 IND 16 115 1663 12 238.3
Harrison Marvin 2002 IND 16 143 1722 11 238.2
Owens Terrell 2001 SF 16 93 1412 16 237.2
Muhammad Muhsin 2004 CAR 16 93 1405 16 236.5
Smith Steve 2005 CAR 16 103 1563 12 234.3
Moss Randy 2000 MIN 16 77 1437 15 233.7
Moss Randy 1998 MIN 16 69 1313 17 233.3
Rice Jerry 1990 SF 16 100 1502 13 228.2
Brooks Robert 1995 GB 16 102 1497 13 227.7
Green Roy 1984 STLC 16 78 1555 12 227.5
Freeman Antonio 1998 GB 15 84 1424 14 226.4
Pickens Carl 1995 CIN 16 99 1234 17 225.4
Harrison Marvin 2000 IND 16 102 1413 14 225.3
Sharpe Sterling 1992 GB 16 108 1461 13 224.1
Owens Terrell 2000 SF 14 97 1451 13 223.1
Irvin Michael 1995 DAL 16 111 1603 10 220.3
Sharpe Sterling 1994 GB 16 94 1119 18 219.9

Jerry Rice aside, the very best receiving performance in a season would place Rice as a better draft pick than the #5 RB in this decade. Think about that fact for a bit. Before those of you who are unusually optimistic about Randy Moss’ move to New England, think about Rice before you predict an all-time great performance from Moss in 2007. Picking the right wide receiver to perform as the best at his position in a given year is hard enough, picking one to perform on par with the top backs in the game is at another level altogether. Even if Calvin Johnson turns into a mix of Randy Moss and Terrell Owens without the bad aftertaste, it’s unlikely you draft any receiver in the top 7-10 spots in a fantasy league.

The average reception total for these top 30 performances is 100. Interestingly, 50% of the 100-reception seasons have occurred in this decade. A huge historical increase, but as the stats indicated earlier, the increased fantasy impact of receivers remains minimal in non-point per reception leagues.

That may have to do with the fact that only 22 receivers have ever surpassed this list’s average total of 1494 yards. One can hypothesize that high-yardage players with high reception totals play in west coast offenses where there are a significant number of 5 to 10-yard routes, but you would be incorrect. Of the 100-reception players on this list, only 5 of these performances came from players from west coast offenses. In fact, the rest were primary receivers in a more vertical-oriented, passing game.

The common denominator among receivers on this all-time list is touchdowns. The entire list had at least double-digit touchdowns, and 28 of 30 receivers had at least 12-score seasons. In fact, one-third of the pass catchers averaged at least a touchdown per game. The overall average number of touchdowns for this list is 14 scores—and only 28 receivers in the history of the 16-game season have even reached this number in a season. When projecting receiving touchdowns remember that the number 14 is rarified air.

Receptions

Returning to the subject of receptions, do more receptions predicate high fantasy production? The Gut Check will examine this momentarily, but maybe the stat we should examine first is targets. Although yours truly does not have a 30-year history of target data, stats from recent seasons suggest high target figures correspond with high fantasy production. Only 8 players out of the 90 receivers that constitute the top 30 fantasy producers at the position from 2004-20006 had fewer than 100 targets and none of them started all 16 games in those seasons! The top 10 receivers during this same period have at least 140 targets—8.75 targets per game. They also convert between 35%-40% of these targets into receptions. Unlike runners, whose target to attempt ratio is bad if lower than a 95% conversion rate, or quarterbacks and their 60% completion rate, a quality receiver generally produces elite stats with a conversion rate 2.5-3 times less than a the other positions.

This means a premium should be placed on targets for receivers. It also means if you are projecting receptions for a receiver, you should look at attempts for quarterbacks and calculate what percentage of these attempts will result in targets for specific receivers. This will help you develop a balanced method for projecting reception totals for a receiver in his offensive system. This may be something The Gut Check will tackle this season.

When you begin to calculate stats in a cause-and-effect based manner, you’ll find your overall projections will be tighter. You may miss out predicting those surprises, but so will most everyone else—you’ll still likely land the player at a bargain price if you incorporate average draft position data and your own observations/feeling about a player into the mix. If you project performance without incorporating your non-statistically based beliefs into the mix you can then use the stats to know where the player “should go off the board. “ This will help you make note of how much of a risk you may be taking if you go against the traditional stats to select a player at a different point. This is helpful, because few owners go exactly with their stats when making decisions. Drafting is neither science nor art—it’s a craft. An excellent drafter does a great job incorporating both aspects of evaluation to make a decision.

Receptions
Last First Year Team Rec Rec Yd Rec TD FPts
Harrison Marvin 2002 Ind 143 1722 11 238
Moore Herman 1995 Det 123 1686 14 253
Rice Jerry 1995 SF 122 1848 15 281
Carter Cris 1995 Min 122 1371 17 239
Carter Cris 1994 Min 122 1256 7 168
Bruce Isaac 1995 Stl 119 1781 13 256
Holt Torry 2003 Stl 117 1696 12 242
Smith Jimmy 1999 Jax 116 1636 6 200
Harrison Marvin 1999 Ind 115 1663 12 238
Smith Rod 2001 Den 113 1343 11 200
Rice Jerry 1994 SF 112 1499 13 240
Sharpe Sterling 1993 GB 112 1274 11 193
Ward Hines 2002 Pit 112 1329 12 205
Smith Jimmy 2001 Jax 112 1373 8 185
Moss Randy 2003 Min 111 1632 17 265
Irvin Michael 1995 Dal 111 1603 10 220
Mathis Terance 1994 Atl 111 1342 11 200
Harrison Marvin 2001 Ind 109 1524 15 242
Perriman Brett 1995 Det 108 1488 9 203
Rice Jerry 1996 SF 108 1254 8 179
Sharpe Sterling 1992 GB 108 1461 13 224
Monk Art 1984 Was 106 1372 7 179
Moore Herman 1996 Det 106 1296 9 184
Johnson Keyshawn 2001 TB 106 1266 1 133
Moss Randy 2002 Min 106 1347 7 177
Metcalf Eric 1995 Atl 104 1189 8 173
Moore Herman 1997 Det 104 1293 8 177
Brown Tim 1997 Oak 104 1408 5 171
Johnson Andre 2006 Hou 103 1147 5 145
Smith Steve 2005 Car 103 1563 12 234
Fitzgerald Larry 2005 Az 103 1409 10 201
It appears the average all-time fantasy point leaders averaged fewer receptions, but more yards and touchdowns. Although the differences appear small over the course of a season, it may indicate the impact of big play wide receivers on the fantasy point list as opposed to the reception list. .

List Rec Yds TDs FPts
Fpts 100 1494 15 239
Rec 112 1454 10 208

The all-time fantasy point leaders at WR averaged nearly 2 points per game more than their reception-leading counterparts. The obvious difference is the rate of touchdowns scored for the fantasy point leaders. In contrast, the yardage and receptions are only marginally different between the two lists. This comparison further underscores the importance of targets, because of this minor difference in receptions over the course of the season. The average difference in targets remain marginal and it appears it is worthwhile to draft a receiver who averages slightly fewer receptions per game in exchange for lower percentage plays with a higher reward.

Look at some of the names on this reception list that are not on the total fantasy point list: Brett Perriman, Art Monk, Tim Brown, Eric Metcalf Terance Mathis, and Keyshawn Johnson did not even sniff the total fantasy points all-time list. These are safe players to draft, but their roles were as possession receivers. Only Terance Mathis had double-digit scores. Even in point per reception leagues, the fantasy point leaders still hold the advantage due to such a small difference in receptions between the lists.

The point is to understand the nature of the receiver’s game. What role does he have in the offense? At what stage is his career from a physical standpoint? What kind of offense is his team running? These answers should impact your projections. For example, west coast offense players should have higher reception totals at a lower yardage per catch rate than primary threats in a downfield passing game. Or, an athletic possession receiver (i.e.—Larry Fitzgerald or Hines Ward) in his prime has a chance to amass more touchdowns than an athletic deep threat in a struggling offense (Andre Johnson).

Yardage
Last First Year Team Rec Rec Yd Rec TD FPts
Rice Jerry 1995 SF 122 1848 15 281
Bruce Isaac 1995 STL 119 1781 13 256
Harrison Marvin 2002 Ind 143 1722 11 238
Holt Torry 2003 STL 117 1696 12 242
Moore Herman 1995 Det 123 1686 14 253
Harrison Marvin 1999 Ind 115 1663 12 238
Smith Jimmy 1999 Jax 116 1636 6 200
Holt Torry 2000 STL 82 1635 6 200
Moss Randy 2003 Min 111 1632 17 265
Irvin Michael 1995 Dal 111 1603 10 220
Smith Rod 2000 Den 100 1602 8 214
Boston David 2001 Az 98 1598 8 208
Moore Rob 1997 Az 97 1584 8 206
Rice Jerry 1986 SF 86 1570 15 253
Smith Steve 2005 Car 103 1563 12 234
Green Roy 1984 STLC 78 1555 12 228
Harrison Marvin 2001 Ind 109 1524 15 242
Irvin Michael 1991 Dal 93 1523 8 200
Rice Jerry 1993 SF 98 1503 15 246
Rice Jerry 1990 SF 100 1502 13 228
Rice Jerry 1994 SF 112 1499 13 240
Brooks Robert 1995 GB 102 1497 13 228
Morgan Stanley 1986 NE 84 1491 10 209
Perriman Brett 1995 Det 108 1488 9 203
Rice Jerry 1989 SF 82 1483 17 250
Moss Santana 2005 Was 84 1483 9 202
Bruce Isaac 2000 STL 87 1471 9 201
Sharpe Sterling 1992 GB 108 1461 13 224
Owens Terrell 2000 SF 97 1451 13 223
Moss Randy 2000 Min 77 1437 15 234
Yardage—When examining the all-time yardage leaders, the point the Gut Check made before is further reinforced.

List Rec Yds TDs FPts
Fpts 100 1494 15 239
Rec 112 1454 10 208
Yds 102 1573 12 229

Big play threats may have lower reception counts, but they still generate more yardage and scores. Names from the past and recent present such as Stanley Morgan, Santana Moss, David Boston, and Roy “The Jet Stream” Green epitomize the impact of the a good, vertical passing game.

It’s still very important to recognize that 1400-yard seasons are still all-too rare for the NFL. Slightly more than one third (8 out of 20) of the historical 1500-yard seasons came in the past seven years. Only once has a receiver surpassed this mark in the last three seasons.

100-reception seasons may be more common with the west coast offense, but these receivers are getting their total yardage in smaller chunks. As you can see from the chart comparison above, yardage leaders are closer to fantasy-point leaders in nearly every respect. While there is no clear statistical correlation at this point, the hypothesis of the vertical offenses or big-play receivers having a higher threshold for fantasy scoring seems accurate.

 

 

TDs
Last First Year Team Rec Rec Yd Rec TD FPts
Rice Jerry 1987 SF 65 1078 22 246
Clayton Mark 1984 Mia 73 1389 18 247
Sharpe Sterling 1994 GB 94 1119 18 220
Moss Randy 2003 Min 111 1632 17 265
Moss Randy 1998 Min 69 1313 17 233
Pickens Carl 1995 Cin 99 1234 17 225
Carter Cris 1995 Min 122 1371 17 239
Rice Jerry 1989 SF 82 1483 17 250
Owens Terrell 2001 SF 93 1412 16 237
Muhammad Muhsin 2004 Car 93 1405 16 237
Harrison Marvin 2001 Ind 109 1524 15 242
Rison Andre 1993 Atl 86 1242 15 214
Rice Jerry 1986 SF 86 1570 15 253
Rice Jerry 1993 SF 98 1503 15 246
Rice Jerry 1995 SF 122 1848 15 281
Moss Randy 2000 Min 77 1437 15 234
Harrison Marvin 2004 Ind 86 1113 15 201
Owens Terrell 2004 Phi 77 1200 14 204
Martin Tony 1996 SD 85 1171 14 201
Miller Anthony 1995 Den 59 1079 14 192
Rice Jerry 1991 SF 80 1206 14 205
Harrison Marvin 2000 Ind 102 1413 14 225
Owens Terrell 1998 SF 67 1097 14 200
Jackson Michael 1996 Bal 76 1201 14 204
Freeman Antonio 1998 GB 84 1424 14 226
Moore Herman 1995 Det 123 1686 14 253
Clayton Mark 1988 Mia 86 1129 14 197
Green Roy 1983 STLC 78 1227 14 207

Touchdowns—Based on what has been discussed already it should follow suit that the all-time touchdown scorers correlate highly with the best fantasy scorers.

List Rec Yds TDs FPts
Fpts 100 1494 15 239
Rec 112 1454 10 208
Yds 102 1573 12 229
TDs 89 1340 16 228

The comparison shows this is the case. Despite the touchdown leaders having the lowest average reception and yardage totals of the four profiled lists, the fantasy points per game are only marginally different from the point leaders and nearly the same as the yardage list.

Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, and Terrell Owens represent 43% of the seasons on this list and 36% of the list came from San Francisco’s offensive system. The make up of this list should tell you two things:

1. The West Coast Offense can generate a lot of redzone scores for its primary receiver because some of their short- passing plays are a staple inside the five-yard line. Antonio Freeman benefited in Green Bay as well. The same could be said about the run and shoot: Andre Rison and Herman Moore also got a lot of chances for a receiver in the redzone. Other than Jerry Rice’s freakish 65-catch and 22-td season, all but one receiver mentioned had no less than 80 receptions.

2. Your classic deep threats also represent well on this list. Sterling Sharpe (pre-west coast Favre), Carl Pickens, Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss, Tony Martin, Anthony Miller, Mark Clayton, Roy Green, and Michael Jackson were all prototypical field-stretchers.

In the modern era of the 16-game season, it’s telling only 10 receivers in nearly 30 years have averaged at least one touchdown reception per game. If you are projecting touchdowns, anything over 13 is extremely rare (it’s only happened 28 times in 29 years; only 8 of these seasons occurring in the current decade. If you put all of this together, you should surmise only the rare player in a great offensive system consistently posts high rates of receiving touchdowns for more than a season in his career. Rice, Moss, Owens, Clayton, and Harrison played with All-Pro or Hall of Fame quarterbacks and will likely be in Canton soon (Clayton is the only question mark).

So what numbers are the receiver’s equivalent of a quality statistical season in correlation to say, an RB’s season of 300 carries and 1300 yards? Here are some small facts to consider the limits for projections:

  • Flipper Anderson’s 1989 totals of 44 receptions and 1146 yards (26 yards per catch!) was the lowest catch total for a receiver to reach 1000 yards in a 16-game season. The Ram receiver was the ultimate deep threat. Stanley Morgan, Henry Ellard, and Chargers receiver coach, James Lofton also had multiple seasons of impressive yardage to reception ratios (over 1000 yards—sometimes over 1200 yards—on fewer than 50 receptions). But out of 1169 seasons of logged by a receiver only 7 receivers gained at least 1000 yards on fewer than 50 catches. Remember, most teams play a version of the west coast offense. Don’t project high yardage per catch totals for these receivers. If you are projecting more than 14 yards per catch, that player is most likely a great deep threat on a vertical passing offense like Scott Linehan or Mike Martz’s system or the play action pass is a big staple of the offense like the Colts or Broncos. If you believe a player will gain at least 1000 yards, historically that player will have at minimum, 65-72 receptions.

  • There have only been 165 out of 4503 seasons where a receiver has gained at least 1200 yards. Nearly 42% of these seasons have occurred in the current decade. Based on the past few years, a 1200-yard season is something 7-10 receivers experience per year. With this in mind, 1150-1200 yards is a good, minimum baseline for yardage among top-tier, fantasy starters. A typical receiver in the next tier down will be within the 1000-1150-range. There is an additional 261 seasons (426 total at 1000 yards ore more) where a receiver gained at least 1000 yards.

  • The seasons with the highest number of tds with the least amount of yards belong to two re-known deep threats
Last Name First Name Year Team G Rec Rec Yd Rec Td Fpts
Turner Daryl 1985 sea 16 34 670 13 145
Moss Randy 2004 min 13 49 767 13 155

More than half of “The Burner” Turner’s receptions were scores and the next closest season of this type happened nearly 20 years later.

All this data should help one understand some basic points about projecting fantasy performance for wide receivers:

  1. Yardage, touchdowns, and targets are the most consistent indicators for high fantasy performance.

    • Any projection of 14 touchdowns or more is treading into the territory of all-time greatness.
    • Any projection of 1400 yards is also rarified air, but becoming slightly more common for top WRs in the 00s.
    • 140 targets in season, or 8.75 per game, is a good benchmark for top-10 worthy performances from year to year.

  2. Calculate targets by using previous seasons of stats and compare them to their corresponding quarterback’s attempts to gauge some level of accuracy.

  3. A higher reception total does not always correlate with higher yardage totals due to the fact big-play receivers often compile very productive totals on lower reception counts.

  4. Try to ascertain the role this receiver will have in his current offensive system and look at stat performances from similar players with the related roles.

If one considers these points and the analysis from this article when considering projections, he will have a better chance of separating likelihood from hype.