Notes From The Film Room
9/29/05
The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense
of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check
is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s
a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information.
This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s
potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining
the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines
that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.
Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic,
he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and
help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep
a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This
way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider,
or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast
as you can!
Next week, The Gut Check will perform an analysis of his Crank
Scores vs. the first quarter of the season. This will include
Crank Scores for the top 20 players at the QB, RB, and WR positions
and how they stack up to Yours Truly’s preseason ranking.
But this week, The Gut Check has more scouting profiles and checklists,
plus notes about future prospects to keep an eye on for next year.
It may seem early to begin looking at college prospects, but as
an avid dynasty league owner, drafting quality rookie talent can
make all the difference.
It can also be even more effective for re-draft leagues. Yours
Truly has been touting Cadillac Williams for months as far and
away the back in the best situation this year and at least in
this writer’s opinion, the most talented of the draft class.
The Gut Check projected Williams high enough that taking him as
your #3 RB with confidence should have netted you three quality
starting RBs and likely two, top-ten performers at the position
to start the season. Plus, Yours Truly did an
analysis indicating a good chance at least one back from this
draft class will have a rookie year that places him among the
elite fantasy talents at the position—guess who The Gut
Check tabbed as the best choice?
There has been a share of poor choices—Tony Hollings and
Onterrio Smith come to mind right away—yet The Gut Check’s
process to make these decisions has become more sound:
- An overall weighted score for the position on a 100-point
scale
- Position specific criteria broken down into key components
- Game day stats
- Analysis and commentary of each key component based on film
study of the prospect’s performance in live action
- Analysis and commentary of overall strengths and weaknesses
based on film study
Each player will have two pages of information devoted to his performance.
The Gut Check will be covering prospects at QB, RB, WR, and TE.
In the future, this will also include analysis of each player’s
fantasy prospects.
This week there three sets of reports—two on Louisville RB
Michael Bush and one on Wisconsin RB
Brian Calhoun. Both are very different runners, but with similar
scores. The reports are in Adobe Reader, a very common program on
most PCs today, but free
to download if you don’t have it.
Here are some Notes from The Gut Check’s film room—otherwise
known as a cluttered bedroom with random furniture, and a TIVO:
RB Laurence Maroney runs with
a style that reminds The Gut Check of Deuce McAllister. Last weekend
versus Purdue’s #1 rushing defense, Maroney had a 46-carry
performance with several nice inside runs that demonstrated vision,
patience, and good cuts. It helps to have a great offensive line—good
enough for coaching great Howard Schnellenburger says Minnesota’s
line is the most talented unit he’s seen in years and compared
them Nebraska’s unit from the mid-80’s that generated
several NFL stalwarts. Unlike a guy like Wisconsin’s Brian
Calhoun, who is a smaller back used to dart through huge holes,
Maroney’s patience got him extra yards and when the line broke
down, he knew how to utilize his power to gain yardage on his own.
Reggie Bush, if he declares himself
eligible, may be a better back but Maroney will be the power back
with breakaway speed that most RB-needy teams in the NFL will covet.
If Bush and Maroney participate in the drat, don’t be surprised
with a lot of debate similar to Brown, Williams, and Benson.
DE Elvis Dumervil of Louisville
leads the NCAA in sacks. He’s build somewhat like Dwight Freeney—5-11,
longer wingspan than height would indicate, and excellent speed,
anticipation, and leverage.
Don’t be surprised if Louisville becomes a more popular school
on draft day over the next few years. QB
Brian Brohm is the most polished passer The Gut Check has
watched on tape this year (he’s waiting on Leinhart)—very
poised and excellent mechanics. Louisville’s 6-5, freshman
WR Mario Uruttia has the type
of skills that may have scouts comparing him to Plaxico Burress
within a short period of time.
Last year my favorite two draft-eligible running backs were Cadillac
and Ryan Moats. A guy that has quickly become one of my favorites
is Alabama’s Kenneth Darby.
One of my friends feels the junior tailback has been a minor disappointment
because he hasn’t exploded against quality competition. The
Gut Check watched the Tennessee-Alabama game last year and couldn’t
find much wrong with this runner’s game. If anything, he didn’t
demonstrate great breakaway speed, but he’s one of the tougher
runners The Gut Check has seen thus far.
Another Crimson Tide player surely getting ready for the NFL is
LB Freddie Roach.
On the other hand, Yours Truly just doesn’t see the skills
many had touted in Gerald Riggs, JR.
For such a prized recruit, his career hasn’t lived up to the
notoriety. The Longhorns’ RB Jamaal
Charles already has moments where he runs like a seasoned
professional. If he remains healthy, he could be the best of the
Texas RBs that have moved onto the NFL.
Ted Ginn, Jr. may be getting all
the love at Ohio State, but WR Santonio
Holmes looks like a terrific playmaker in his own right.
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