9/9/02  
               
            Change, the only true constant in life, is what every fantasy owners 
            is trying to be in tune with regarding the NFL. Many of the changes 
            in the world of professional football are predictable, injury, free 
            agency, salary cap reductions, trades, retirement and the ever-emerging 
            rookies and players stepping up. Most of these changes provide a ripple 
            effect upon the league and the organization. At best they may be a 
            wave worthy of ten seconds of surf time. They are nothing compared 
            to the tsunami of an ownership change. Outside of changing owners, 
            the biggest waves created in the NFL are those made by coaching changes. 
            These are waves big enough to challenge the best fantasy surfer with 
            their impacts possibly being long lasting. This season there have 
            been six coaching changes in the league. Three of them are retread 
            coaches getting another chance at the helm, while the other three 
            represent either fresh blood to the league or their first chance at 
            being in charge of a professional team.   
            Outside of the owner, no single person stamps their personal philosophy 
            on a team like the head coach. It eclipses concerns over who can recover 
            from last year's knee injury or who is due for a break out year. A 
            coach can determine who will be having the chance to recover or breakout. 
            The coach is the man who sets the tone for a team on both the practice 
            and playing field like no owner or player can. It is their system, 
            their assistants, their coordinators and their philosophy on the line 
            every day. The coach of any team is the direct instrument of change. 
            (Unless you work for Al Davis, more later.) This year of coaching 
            changes has been the most controversial and high profile. The waves 
            emitted by these changes will affect the league for years.   
            For the third time in three years, the Washington Redskins have a 
            new head coach. Daniel Snyder maintained his good record of changing 
            coaches like underwear when he rid himself of Marty Schottenheimer 
            hiring instead, Steve Spurrier. Although Marty may have had his entire 
            family on the payroll along with many of his friends, he did have 
            a respectable 8 and 8 record with the Redskins. Even more respectable 
            when one considers the Redskins started the regular season at 0 and 
            five.   
            During training camp veterans were complaining the drills were too 
            tough, the coach did not care, and they were on the verge of mutiny. 
            To his credit, Marty turned the team around. They team began to win. 
            They finished the season hungry, looking like a real NFL team having 
            the potential to make the 2002 play-offs. Not satisfied, Daniel Snyder 
            let him go. Still seen as a viable commodity by Alex Spanos, he was 
            hired by the San Diego Chargers. 
             Marty is charged with turning around a team with a single digit 
              winning record over the last two years. The man who loved running 
              back by committee in Kansas City, barely has a back up to LaDainian 
              Tomlinson. Seeming to always love a quarterback who does not make 
              mistakes, he is saddled with second year quarterback Drew Breeze 
              who will be a first year starter. At least he has one aspect of 
              the team to make him feel comfortable, an aging yet competent defense 
              led by one of the best line backers of all time. The Chargers will 
              be better this year with Marty in charge, but they will fall short 
              of the play-offs. Outside of Tomlinson, there is really nothing 
              to claim as a fantasy owner this year. The future could be brighter. 
             Steve Spurrier has an NCAA pedigree the envy of many. As a Heisman 
              Trophy winner at quarterback in 1966, he was drafted number one 
              by the San Francisco 49ers. He spent 10 years in the pros, but never 
              rose to the level of the hype preceding him. He ended his career 
              with the hapless Buccaneers in 1976 to begin coaching at the college 
              ranks. He spent a brief stint with the defunct Tampa Bay Bandits 
              in the USFL, before taking a downtrodden Duke team to the level 
              of respectability, before taking over the University of Florida 
              program. He stayed with the university for 12 seasons earning one 
              NCAA title in 1996. Despite a record of 127-27-1, the best of any 
              twelve-year coach, his team spent much of their time in the shadows 
              as the third best college team in Florida. With the departure of 
              Shottenheimer at Washington, Spurrier became a Redskin. 
               
              Spurrier brings with him the reputation of having an aerial attack 
              second to few. He inherits a team with a strong defense only made 
              stronger with the addition of Marvin Lewis from Baltimore. During 
              the preseason the Redskins set a new record for points scored, averaging 
              thirty per game. He has incurred the wrath of opposing coaches for 
              running up the score. Although he has no real star at the quarterback 
              position, the team has shown passing to be their strength. It will 
              only be complimented with the running of Stephen Davis who saw few 
              touches during the preseason onslaught. Receiver Rod Gardner has 
              made the sleeper list of virtually every fantasy publication. The 
              team seems poised for success in the regular season and should improve 
              over their 8 and 8 record from last season. The glaring problem 
              is at the QB position and Spurrier's philosophy regarding it. He 
              was never known to stick with one player. If starter Shane Matthews 
              falls short, he may be inclined to revert to one of his other U 
              of F grads. Quarterback by committee has never truly been successful 
              in the NFL and is a disaster for any fantasy owner. Unlike many 
              diverse offensive attacks, there is no value at the quarterback 
              position; the fantasy value lies in the defense and skill positions. 
              The play-offs are possible this year, but there is only one bowl 
              game in the NFL. This team may come close, but it is still out of 
              reach. 
             Aside from out and out changes in the organization, there are 
              two assistant coaches who have received their promotion to head 
              coach from within. For both coaches it is their first time being 
              in charge of a professional team. Both of them replace coaches who 
              had fair to great success with their teams, but were unable to put 
              the organization on top. One will be asked to turn his team around 
              after a five win season the other will be dedicated to a "Commitment 
              to Excellence."  
             Mike Tice came to the Vikings in 1992 as a tight end. He played 
              for two seasons at the position before moving on to the coaching 
              level in 94. In 1997 he was promoted to offensive line coach. With 
              the departure of Dennis Green at the end of the 2002 season he became 
              the head coach of the Minnesota Vikings. He has always been described 
              as unspectacular if not "blue collar' in his approach to the 
              game. 
               
              Last year, after a disastrous summer camp, the Vikings fell apart 
              during the regular season. Randy Moss and Chris Carter were seen 
              fighting with each other as well as fellow teammates. After coming 
              close to the big game a couple of times, Green was seen as not being 
              able to discipline his team. Owner Billy Joe fired him "Red" 
              McCombs at the end of the season. 
               
              On the surface, the changes seem to have been for the better. Players 
              are reported as being happy. Randy Moss has said he wants to be 
              a leader on the team. Daunte Culpepper has stated Randy will be 
              90% of the offense. It appears Michael Bennett has matured as a 
              person and a runner, while their non-existent defense has shown 
              some backbone. This team should have more focus than the past, but 
              there should be few changes on offense. Why mess with a good thing? 
              With a solid, if not spectacular defense, the Vikings should be 
              headed back to the play-offs. The addition Biekert, a veteran from 
              the Oakland Raiders, should assist in this process. (Like Marcus 
              Allen, another Davis casualty.) Their offensive triangle of Culpepper, 
              Moss and Bennett should be in the top five rounds of any draft. 
              Despite another death in the Viking family, the team appears to 
              have a great attitude, which should translate well into the regular 
              season. Given their performance last season, and subsequent easier 
              schedule outside of their division; the Vikings have a shot at the 
              play offs. The "Big Game" looms in the future if they 
              can adhere to the work ethic of their head coach. 
             Bill Callahan takes over a Raider team aging, yet still on the 
              brink of making it to the Super Bowl. Callahan was the offensive 
              coordinator/line coach under John "Chuckie" Gruden. He 
              may not have called the plays last season, but he has been a crucial 
              part of the Oakland offensive scheme. With Gruden taking the job 
              at Tampa Bay, Callahan has been hailed as a player's coach and the 
              change has been welcome. Although the Raiders were in double digits 
              in their first two games in penalties, most of them being of the 
              way stupid variety. Against the 49ers the Raiders looked to be more 
              focused, against the Cardinals they looked to be in control. Once 
              again they will challenge for the final showdown, once again they 
              have few fantasy players worth taking in the top four rounds of 
              any draft. The problem, they have too many weapons and their offensive 
              success is built around role players like Crockett, Rice and Wheatley 
              Outside of Rich Gannon, none of the Raider offensive players are 
              consistently good enough to be anything but a secondary player or 
              substitute. (As much as I love Tim Brown, he would not be my first 
              choice as a wide receiver.) Part of the Raider scheme is to spread 
              the touches of the ball between many players, this, unfortunately 
              for fantasy players, will not change. Another element unchanging 
              in the Raider organization is the megalomaniac personality of Al 
              Davis. Greg Biekert is gone, I have a strong feeling it is the reason 
              "Chuckie" wanted out. The more things change, the more 
              they stay the same. 
             One of the most high profile coaching changes of the season occurred 
              between Tampa Bay and Oakland Raiders. After several years of solid 
              success, Tony Dungy was asked to leave the Bucs. It seemed he could 
              not win the big game in the playoffs and get the team over the hump 
              to real respectability. To replace him the organization went after 
              John Gruden of the Raiders. The romance was one of the biggest soap 
              operas of the off-season. 
               
              Gruden comes to a Tampa Bay team in search of a savior. Even the 
              messiah "Chuckie" may not be able to lift this team to 
              the very top level. Their defense has always been amongst the league's 
              best; their offense let them down. Brad Johnson will be the starter. 
              He makes few mistakes, but seems to lack the leadership skills of 
              John's last quarterback project in Oakland. . Although Michael Pittman 
              is listed as the starter at running back, Mike Alstott will still 
              be the goal line guy making Pittman nothing better than a middle 
              round fantasy draft selection. Between McCardell and Keyshawn Johnson 
              they will have two solid receivers sharing the catches with neither 
              one being a constant scoring threat. It will be ball control offense 
              and just don't lose as the motto. The team may improve their record, 
              but will fall short of Super Bowl rings. Even with Keyshawn Johnson 
              and more freedom, none of their offensive fantasy players deserve 
              anything above a fourth round pick. This is not the case in the 
              new home of Tony Dungy. 
             Last season the Colts had an offense with the ability to score 
              from anywhere on the field. They better had because their defense 
              gave up points like a broken slot machine. Last year the Colt defense 
              was every fantasy player's dream. Even your average guy could have 
              a great day against a defense who could not get out of their own 
              way. Tony has been hired to change it. 
               
              Controversy surrounded the dismissal of Dungy in Tampa Bay. Many 
              people felt he had gotten the dirty end of the stick. Tony had brought 
              them out of the cellar giving them, a glimpse of the light, but 
              he could not take them to the "Promised Land." He has 
              the job of changing the attitude of every fantasy owner's whipping 
              boy, the Colt defense. He seems to have addressed the problem through 
              free agency and the college draft. Look for the Colts to be better, 
              but not great. At least defensive stats should not be on the bottom. 
              It would not take much of a defense to allow the Colt offense to 
              turn up the heat making the other team play catch up for a change, 
              allowing them to make more mistakes. 
             He has stated he will not overhaul the offense of the team. There 
              is really no need. Peyton Manning may have had his worst year for 
              interceptions, but it is understandable. When your team is constantly 
              down by two or more touchdowns you have to throw the ball more. 
              They should not be in the position this season. For the last four 
              years Peyton Manning has worked with Tom Moore Offensive Coordinator. 
              For the last four years the Colts have had one of the hottest offenses 
              in team history. To his credit, Tony Dungy has allowed Moore to 
              stay on showing both his faith and commitment to the offense as 
              is. After all, if it aint broken, why fix it? 
             The only broken thing on the Colts offense, outside of Manning's 
              nose, is their starting running back Edgerrin James. He went down 
              about mid-season last year with a knee injury. Pundits have cast 
              doubt regarding his return in full strength. They say he has not 
              worked out with the team during the off-season. They also say he 
              has seen little action during this preseason. It should be remembered; 
              James did not work out with the team last season either. Up until 
              the time of his injury it appeared he was on his way to his third 
              Pro Bowl. Few of the major starters play huge roles during the preseason. 
              It is a time to evaluate talent; James has already passed the test. 
              With James once again in the offense, the Colts should have very 
              productive fantasy players. Their defense may not be strong enough 
              to put them in the Super Bowl, but with Dungy at the helm, it could 
              come in the near future. 
             Of course coaching changes are not the only concerns facing fantasy 
              players on the eve of the first game of the season, but these are 
              player concerns whose impacts will be short lived in the history 
              of the game or organization. There are always replacements out there. 
              There is always going to be the rookie surprise on a team or the 
              veteran who finally has to hang them up. With the exception of Washington, 
              few teams change their coaches on a regular basis, especially if 
              the team has been successful under their regime. Coaching changes 
              are more permanent, with a larger impact than any player could ever 
              expect to have. 
             Sure Marshall Faulk has had tremendous success with the Rams. 
              Their system of wide-open offense, with a diverse back, lends itself 
              to his kind of play. Still, it was only a few years ago fantasy 
              owners were writing off Marshal as the latest in a long line of 
              busts at the position. Did Marshal get faster? Become a better receiver? 
              A more elusive runner? probably yes, but not far from his pre-injury 
              collegiate days. What happened was he went to a system where a player 
              of his diverse talent was not only appreciated, it was required. 
              The coach is the system. Follow the system to success. Good luck 
              to all this fantasy season.  
              
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