12/5/01
To be honest, I have never thought much of "Keeper Leagues."
Having to keep players into the next season held little appeal. Between
players, owners and the NFL behavior police there are too many variables
to make keeping players an attractive proposition. Still, for the
last weeks, in response to an email, I have been trying to live the
life of a "Keeper League" player. As a result, the thought
of participating in a keeper league has become more palatable.
For the uninitiated, a keeper league is just what it says. A league
is set. Owners draft players, then for the life of the league, owners
are allowed to keep three to seven position players for the next season.
If, during the life of the league, an owner drops out their players
are relegated to the draft pool for next season or their "keepers"
are bought by a new owner.
Success in a keeper league hinges on being able to predict the future
in the guise of emerging young talent. The dynamics of the league
dictate you know when to cut an aging star, when to retain the services
of young established talent and when to wait until the draft to fill
a gap. This time of the fantasy season is especially critical to keeper
league players. As us "normal" fantasy players are heading
towards the crucial weeks of the play-offs, they are too. In addition
to this decisive time, they are planning what players to keep for
next season as trade deadlines loom. This creates a super vortex of
stress regular fantasy owners cannot comprehend making participation
in a keeper league attractive to any tension junkie.
I believe in the "KISS" principle. (Keep It Simple Stupid)
In observing life, it seems all things happen in threes, including
deaths. Life balances on a triangle. To this end I have developed
a keeper strategy based upon this simplest, yet strongest geometric
shape in the world. Not only is it used for strength in the design
of buildings, automobiles and bridges. It is also the basic shape
of any balanced offense in the NFL.
The triangle of quarterback, running back and wide receiver is the
foundation of any successful offense. The run sets up the pass, the
pass sets up the run. They work together to keep a defense off balance
creating scoring opportunities. Any team with the constant threat
of attacking with either tool is a nightmare for any defensive coordinator.
Take away any leg of the triangle, the job of stopping the offense
becomes much easier. Being able to assess the potential of any team's
offensive triangle is not only a tool for draft preparation, it can
also help determine what players to keep. To this end I have identified
five triangles I see existing in the NFL. They are the Bermuda, Right,
Obtuse, Isosceles and Dinner Triangle.
The
Bermuda Triangle
The Bermuda Triangle has supposedly been the excuse for the disappearance
of ships, planes and peoples. These teams disappeared leaving little
of their preseason dreams. Without major damage control, these teams
will disappear completely from radar for next season. In the NFL these
teams who are like the Flying Dutchman, a ghost ship. They have a
ghost of a chance for developing anything tangible for the 2002 campaign.
- Cincinnati Bengals: This team
has to be a constant frustration to their fans. They have one
of the best running backs in the league, yet nothing at quarterback
to make the system work. Is Kitna the answer? Probably not. They
have makings of a pass offense to help Dillon out, but no one
to pull the trigger. Warrick and Scott can fly, but they have
failed to soar. It is tough to get off the ground when the quarterback
spends all of their time running on or eating turf. They have
not had a passing game since Blake to Pickins, they will not have
one unless one of their passers decides to fill the leadership
role. Kitna or Smith will have to step up. With no solid quarterback,
this team will remain adrift.
- Carolina Panthers: This team
is floundering. Huntley may finally be a starter after four years
in the league, but he may be only an answer for a trivia question
ten years down the road. Weinke is developing, but it may not
happen next year. Wesley Walls is nearer to the end of his career
than the beginning. Muhsin Muhammad has not had a stellar year.
The team is in an offensive fog with no clear course. Eventually
Weinke may be the QB for a short future, he needs to be surrounded
with more talent than he has at the moment. In the meantime, this
is a rudderless ship. This offense is a question desperately seeking
an answer. It will come in a season or two, not next year.
The Isosceles Triangle
An isosceles triangle has two equal sides, with one side out of whack.
There are potential keepers here, despite little balance. Teams who
are "short sided" bear watching during the off season to
see if they will shore up their weak spots.
- Arizona Cardinals: This is
a team with a scrambling dynamic quarterback in Jake Plummer.
The problem is the Plummer has a leak at running back. It may
be the line, it may be him, but Michael Pittman has not developed
into the back for the Cards. David Boston has really come around
this season. The chemistry between him and the "Snake"
seems genuine. The rest of the receivers are aging gracefully,
but their careers are drawing to an end. It will be interesting
to see what the Cards do in the off-season to address their problems
in the backfield. They should end up with a high draft pick, or
they could look to the free agent market. They need to compliment
the two strong sides of their unit to be a strong unit for next
season. Without a runner, Boston is the only thing worth keeping
here. Plummer will be available in the draft.
- Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings
have felt the absence of Robert Smith for the entire season. Right
now they fall into this category as a result of the performance
of the line and Michael Bennett. Although both will improve, the
receiving tandem of Carter and Moss may not be with the team next
season. There has been talk of an outright release for Moss and
Carter may not have the heart for another rebuilding season. Currently
there is not a lot backing up either one of these guys. Lets hope
they don't get too desperate and begin to think along the lines
of Terry Glenn. After a classless entry into the league, Glenn
is making a classless exit from the Patriots. The thought of Moss
and Glenn as a wide out tandem is enough to make any fantasy owner
queasy. Between the two, how would they decide who plays?
The Obtuse Triangle
The obtuse triangle is a three-sided form with one angle being greater
than 90 degrees. Believe it or not, there are teams in the NFL with
too many options in their offense. It is a problem many NFL teams
would like to have, but it presents a problem for fantasy owners as
the team will go with whatever the defense gives them. They exploit
rather than dictate. They will use whatever offensive tool they have
to widen a crack in the defense. The problem is trying to guess which
tool they are going to use in any given week. Variety may be the spice
of life, but it is a nightmare for fantasy owners. Don't look to the
sides of this shape for consistency, look to the base. Try to avoid
the sides. They may look attractive, but they have a slippery slope.
- Oakland Raiders: Rich Gannon
may be the base of this team, still the number of weapons he is
surrounded by make selecting fantasy players nearly impossible.
Will it be Rice or Brown who catch all of the passes this week
in the end zone? Depending on down and distance which of the five
employed backs will carry the rock into the end zone or rush for
100 yards? Too many questions and not enough solid answers. Besides,
many of these players are playing at the end of their careers.
Combined, Rice, Brown and Gannon have 33 years in the NFL. I like
Terry Porter as a developing wide out. Depending on what happens
in the off-season he could be a sleeper. With two future Hall
of Famers who have work ethics filed under, "NO QUIT",
Porter could not have better teachers/role models.
- St. Louis Rams: What a foundation
in Warner and Faulk? It can't get any stouter. Even Faulk's back
up, Trung Canidate, looks exceptional, the problem is at wide
receiver. Any of these burners could start anywhere in the NFL.
The problem is, they are all on one team. They have all had their
moment in the spotlight this season, predicting who will shine
on any given Sunday is like the playing the lotto. You may win
big, but chances are you will lose. Any offensive coordinator
would be in heaven with the combination of talent they have, the
question is who to keep in a fantasy league? The answer is, none.
Place them all on waivers at the end of the season. The draft
will hold several consistent players. Let some other owner have
the headache and heartache of deciding who to start.
The Dinner Triangle
For anyone old enough to have seen, The Real McCoys" you know
exactly what a dinner triangle is. In "the day" it is what
farm wives used to use to call the family and the hands in from the
fields for supper. As sad as it is, players get old. When they do
they head out to greener pastures where they can no longer answer
the bell to feast on prime defenses. In the meantime they are living
on guile and guts. It is not a diet one can survive on for long.
- Vinny Testaverde: Vinny is
pushing 39 years of age. He has had a long productive career.
He has survived ridicule, fame, a nomadic life style and a variety
of offenses. He even made the adjustment to playing the west coast
system. On the other hand, Vinny has not been the most mobile
of quarterbacks the last few seasons due to age and his achilles
heel. Waiting in the wings is Chad Pennington. Next year will
mark his third in the league. He has the size as well as the athletic
ability to fit in with the Coles, Moss tandem at wide out. Santana
would not be the first "Moss" Pennington has had success
with.
- Emmitt Smith: Emmit has been
one of the classiest players NFL fans have ever had the pleasure
to watch. His persistence, work ethic and loyalty has been a model
to any player in the league. You may have hated the rest of the
Cowboys, but you had to appreciate the work of #22. If Emmitt
returns next season he will only be a shell of what he was. Backing
him up is a runner with the size and maybe the heart of the man
he will replace, Troy Hambrick. Despite this, the Cowboys have
problems. They are so desperate they are looking at Ryan Leaf
at quarterback. The "Rocket" is barely even a jet while
Galloway has never been what he was when he was Seahawk. Given
everything, the Cowboys may be a good home for Drew Bledsoe as
his tenure in New England appears to be at an end.
- Doug Flutie: At 39 no one
would expect this quarterback to stay in the way of a developing
talent like Drew Brees. He won't. The Chargers brought in Flutie
because he has almost all of the same physical liabilities of
Brees. They were hoping to provide a role model and a heart transplant
for a sick offense. The organization could not have done better.
Doug may still be around next season, but he will be a backup
to a second year player with just as much heart, yet more talent.
This Brees may allow the Chargers to blow through defenses next
season. The team warrants more than a passing interest.
- Chris Chandler: Chandler has
been one of the most valiant quarterbacks in the league. He has
survived being replaced by Steve McNair. He has had so many concussions,
he should have a degree in anesthesiology. He has spent most of
his playing career on artificial turf, yet has survived. He is
an ultimate team player, which is why he will once again step
aside. This time for Michael Vick. The move made by the Falcons
was more honest that the one tried by the Oilers. Chandler's support
could make Vick one of the most explosive weapons in the NFL.
The "Right" Triangle: (aka "The
Love Triangle" As Owners Just Love It)
All right triangles have a perfect 90-degree angle. Given any two
sides of the triangle, you can figure the length of the third side.
These are the teams with predictable fantasy numbers. Their consistency
makes them attractive. Their blend of youth and experience makes them
a force to be reckoned with. Barring stupidity, or worse during the
off-season, these teams could be even better next season. What makes
these teams even more desirable is their ability to reload at almost
any position with no depreciable drop in performance.
- Indianapolis Colts: I know
Mora is busy developing the attitude he had when he left New Orleans.
I understand Peyton has struggled this season. The causes for
this go deeper than a coach/quarterback relationship. The Colts
have not had a defense since Mike Curtis played the game. They
have always been in search of an offense hence the acquisitions
of Jeff George and Eric Dickerson years ago. Between injuries
at the wide out, the loss of Edgerrin James the entire offense
has been hurting. The good thing is the triangle of Manning, Harrison
and James should be back intact next season. Given all of this,
the question is, why have the Colts not spent the time on defense?
If they can take the constant pressure to score off of Manning,
the interceptions will decrease. James will get more carries.
They can become exploiters not desperadoes. The best thing is,
the triangle is young. They have room for development.
- New Orleans Saints: Though
they have not had big numbers in the win column this season, the
saints are beginning to develop an offensive to be admired. Brooks
has made mistakes in his first full season as a starter, so did
Brett Favre. So did almost any other great quarterback you can
think of. The connection to Joe Horn is strong. Ricky Williams
looks to be a back trying to fulfill the promise of three years
ago. This team has tremendous up side. Anyone of the players in
this triad are worth keeping for next season. Their back-ups may
be worth taking in the draft. The results could be heavenly.
- Philadelphia Eagles: This
team has had some hard times as of late, but they are amongst
the strongest in the league. Unlike last season, Donovan McNabb
has finally found receivers he likes to throw to in Thrash and
Pinkston. Freddie Mitchell is developing along with them. After
coming off his injury, Duce Staley has been amongst the elite
running backs in the league. He is young. His back-up Correll
Buckhalter is even younger. Given a staunch defense, the Eagles
will soar next season as the offense comes of age.
I have to admit, after spending two weeks in the role of a "keeper"
owner the concept now intrigues me. I have gained a healthy respect
for those who swear by, and at, this form of fantasy play. They are
the true seekers of talent who either develop a keen eye for talent,
or perish from the play-offs before the season even starts.
The entire dynamics of the draft takes on new meaning as they try
to fill in the holes they have intentionally left at the end of last
season. Even the NFL draft takes on new meaning as owners search the
talent pool. In a way these may be the truest form of fantasy player,
as they don't have to purchase a fantasy magazine at the beginning
of each season, they constantly have to stay on top of the information
to have any success. My hat is off to some of the craziest fantasy
players out there. They not only have to determine talent, the have
to assess character. Characters abound in the NFL, true character
is a rare commodity. These are players with a triangle of heart, soul
and commitment. They are the real keepers as they are the Never Fail
Leaders of the National Football League. In this league three is not
a crowd, it is a necessity.
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