By “quality running back” we refer to backs who have had at least three one-thousand yard seasons during their career. This criteria would exclude many great running backs throughout the eight-six years of the National Football League. The field had to be narrowed further.

In order to accomplish this only players of the modern era were included. By modern era we mean backs who played since the inception of the sixteen game season. This excludes all players ending their careers prior to 1978.

Of course by limiting this survey to running backs who have played since 1978 we are eliminating greats like Jim Brown, Gayle Sayers and Paul Horning. They are eliminated not just because they played twelve or fourteen game seasons, but also because of the size difference between players of past eras and those of today.

Jim Brown stood a solid 6’2” and 230 pounds. He retired at age thirty after averaging 104 yards per game or 5.2 yards per carry for the Cleveland Browns. The problem is, during his era most linemen were slight heavier than Brown. Offensive linemen played at about 250 pounds, their defensive counter parts were sometimes lighter, but rarely heavier.

The three hundred pound lineman, common today, was not truly common until the middle of the 1980’s. One of the most renown lineman of the three hundred pound variety was William Perry. With the nick name of “The Refrigerator” Perry was the first round selection of the Bears in 1985. His weight soared as high as 370 pounds and his fame spread as wide as his mid-section. His celebrity probably reached it’s peak during Super Bowl XX when he scored a TD from the half back denying Walter Payton the opportunity to score in his only Super Bowl appearance. Perry played for eleven years. During his time the 300+ pound lineman became the norm rather than the exception in the NFL.

There was to be one final criteria for selection in this study; age. When the idea for this article came about it was assumed the age at which running backs began to diminish in returns was thirty. Before this criteria was employed the sample size was almost fifty, by imposing an age limit of at least thirty the sample size was reduced to twenty-six players. Some are currently playing like Corey Dillon and Fred Taylor, but the majority have put in their time with the league; they no longer rush to make a living.

There are some working terms which need to be defined before proceeding further. When the term “touches” is used it refers to both rushing attempts and receptions. They are combined into touches because both acts put the ball in the hands of the running back for the purpose of contributing to the team. Both acts also put the running back in danger of injury.

The term “productive years” is also used in this piece. When referring to running backs productive years we mean those years he was close to his average number of total yards gained or scores obtained. It also means the back in question was able to play in at least 13 games in the season. Not all years in a running back’s life are productive neither do they necessarily come only at the end of their career.

Out of this sample of twenty-six, five were Heisman Trophy winners. This group was started by Tony Dorsett in 1976 then came Earl Campbell, Marcus Allen, Barry Sanders and Eddie George. Four of these players, Campbell, Dorsett, Allen and Sanders, are in the Pro-Football Hall of Fame. They are joined there by John Riggins, Walter Payton and Eric Dickerson. Out of all of the players only Payton and Sanders finished their careers with the team who drafted them. The rest spent their last year or more with another team.

The statistics for this group were gathered from one place, Pro-Football-Reference.com. It is a wonderful site with information and statistics on NFL players from 1920 to today. Only skill players are listed. The tables are easy to read showing a players entire career including draft status, college attended and their birthday. The best thing about the site is the cost; free.

There are several questions which this article seeks to address.

1. Is there an age where a quality running back ceases to be productive?
   
   
2. Does age, or the number of touches seem to affect productivity the most?
   
   
3. What current players are approaching the numbers which might indicate they are nearing the end of their careers?

The first two questions are intertwined. Either quality running backs are able to be productive in their extensive careers because they have been injury free or because medical technology has reached a point where they can heal players quicker and better than the past. Still, there can be no doubt running backs are punished game after game. With regard to knees this certainly has to be the case. Compare the injury Edgerrin James had several seasons ago to that of Gayle Sayers in the 60’s. No longer are there the large half-moon scars on either side of the joint, instead there are almost unnoticeable incisions where the arthroscopic work is completed. Now reconstructive knee surgery is not a death sentence to a productive running career, it is merely time lost in rehab.

Most running backs enter the NFL at the age of twenty-one or twenty-two. They enter through the draft but a few have entered as undrafted free agents. The most famous of the later would have to be former Texas running back Priest Holmes. The accuracy of the statistics in this piece have been checked through a site from Vassar University. The Vassar stat site is one of the quickest and easiest places to create quality numbers without grinding them out yourself. The numbers are accurate to a 98% level of confidence.

The answer to the first question regarding age seems to have a ready answer. Thirty years of age seems to be a turning point for most quality backs in the NFL. With a spread of plus or minus 1.5 the average age of a quality running back’s productive years seem to end at 30.42. During their time in the league they are going to rush a total of 2728 times at a rate of 273 rushes per season. They are going to play in about fourteen games per season. (13.79 during their career) This would seem to be an indication that quality running backs either play through pain or they are seldom injured to the point where they can not perform at a high level. It also demonstrates those running backs not seriously injured in their careers will eventually wear out anyway.

For the most part the quality running backs in the NFL are going to play for twelve years in the league. Given these quality backs can perform at a high level for about 10 years (9.73) most will spend two years of their career being relatively unproductive. These years are not going to be at the beginning of their careers. Few players in this survey, and Priest Holmes is the exception again, have not waited until their third or fourth year to take a starting role. For the most part these runners came out of college with high expectations allowing them to start in their first or second year. It would seem to indicate in the case of running backs NFL owners want an immediate return upon their investment.

Once again there are exceptions to the years of productivity. Some players who have ceased to be large ground gainers have become specialists. Marcus Allen (16 years in the league) along with recently retired Jerome Bettis (13 years in the league) ended their careers as TD specialist. Although Bettis was rated as “productive” for twelve of his years, he had twenty-two TD’s in his last two seasons. After being released by the Raiders, Allen joined the Chiefs. In his final five years in the NFL Allen scored forty-four TD’s with eleven of those coming in 1997 his final season in profession football.

Allen might be seen as one of the most durable backs in NFL history averaging over 225 touches and 1,100 yards per season, but he did spend some time injured. In 1989 he blew out a knee falling out of favor with Raider owner Al Davis. Allen is not alone in being either a “work horse” with carries or a “grey beard” in longevity; there were others. A look at all four of their stats reveals what it takes to have a career of more than a decade in the rough and tumble world of the running back.

Marcus Allen
Allen survived a couple of events outside of injuries many running backs never had to face. In 1982, his first year in the league, the NFL went players went out on strike. This shortened the season by almost half limiting the number of carries for all backs during the walk out. During the middle of his career he had three seasons where he did not attain 100 touches of the ball. During this period he never gained a combined 100 yards rushing and receiving. After the Al Davis inspired disaster of 1992, where Marcus was available for all sixteen games yet only touched the ball 95 times, he began his career with Kansas City as a TD specialist. He entered the Hall of Fame in 2003.

Walter Payton
Sweetness entered the league as the Bears number one draft pick from Jackson State. He had a thirteen year career in the NFL; all of them with the Chicago Bears. Like Allen he too had to weather the strike season of 82, unlike Allen he did not have to face the eccentric behavior of an owner. During his career there were only three times he did not have over 300 attempts rushing the ball; his first year, the strike year and his final season in 1987. Only twice during his career did he have under thirty receptions. His peak reception year was 1983 when he snagged the ball on 53 occasions. Once the NFL season was raised to sixteen games he missed being fully eligible in only two seasons; the strike season of 82 and his final season. He may have been known as Sweetness, but he could easily be Ironman. In his thirteen years he had over 4100 touches of the ball and 125 scores. He was inducted into the Hall in 1993.

John Riggins
With fourteen years in the league Riggins rates amongst the best for longevity; there are a couple reasons for this. For one he was the same size and weight of Jim Brown; 6’2” and 230 pounds. Although drafted number one by the Jets, he spent most of his career with the Redskins. Like Allen and Payton he faced the strike shortened season of 1982. During his career he never played in less than ten games except for the strike season and the injury season of 1977 in Washington where he was eligible for only five contests. During his career he had almost 3000 productive touches of the ball while retiring at the ripe old age of thirty-six. He was never known for his ability to catch a pass and he only passed the 300 rushing attempts mark twice; in 83 and 84. His achievements culminated with his Hall of Fame induction in 1992.

Otis Anderson
Otis spent an amazing fifteen years in the NFL. He was not always active for entire seasons, but the start and finish of his career mark him as an elite carrier of the rock. The middle three years of Anderson’s career were marked by injury and an inability to complete a season. From 1985 to 1987 Anderson did not play more than 12 games. In 1986 he split the year between the St. Louis Cardinals and the New York Giants. He retired at age thirty-three with over 2,800 productive attempts with the ball. The final two seasons in the league were two of his least productive totaling 74 touches of the ball. Omitting the middle three years and these two, Anderson was a work horse rushing the ball over 300 times in four seasons while falling just short an additional two seasons. He gained over a thousand yards rushing six times including his rookie season in 1979.

Thurman Thomas
For thirteen seasons Thomas played in the AFC East, twelve with the Bills his final season with the Dolphins. During his career he averaged fourteen games per season playing less than that in only two. For nine of those years he was one of the most productive backs in football. He could both rush and catch, the later ability allowed him to have over sixty receptions twice in his career. During his productive period, which began with his rookie season, he had 2,963 touches of the ball. He ended his productive period at age thirty, but managed to hold on until he was thirty-four years of age. He gained over a thousand yards per season in his first nine, then began to drop radically in 1987. The last year of his career was statistically forgettable in Miami.

Emmitt Smith
Like everyone one of these back field studs, Emmitt played over thirteen seasons in the league. He too finished his career with someone other than the team who drafted him. For the last two years of his career, neither of which were considered productive, he was with the hapless Arizona Cardinals. Until 2003 he was the most productive running back in the history of the National Football League. He rushed the ball over three hundred times seven seasons. In his eleven productive years Smith touched the ball 3,990 times, four of those seasons were with over fifty catches. In the combined years of 1994 and 95 he scored an astronomical 47 TD’s with 25 of them in 94 alone. Many were saddened to see Smith try to sustain his career a few more years by going to Arizona. He left the Cowboys, where he had been a Super Bowl MVP. At least in his final season he once again gained over a thousand yards. Smith will enter the Hall of Fame in first year of eligibility as a Cowboy.

Jerome Bettis
The final stud on the granite list retired after the 2005-06 season. It was nice to see Bettis go out on top even though last season was one of his least productive during his thirteen years in the league. He spent twelve of those years being one of the most productive while punishing backs in the history of the NFL. For eight of those twelve seasons he gained over a thousand yards on the ground. He was never known for his ability to receive the ball, yet during his first two seasons with the Rams he had almost 300 yards in receptions. Bettis spent his last two seasons as a TD specialist. He scored 22 times when he was given the ball inside the five. At 5’11” and nearly 250 pounds he had the ability to take on linebackers after deftly clearing the line of scrimmage. “The Bus” should make a trip to Canton in five years.

The final question to answer should identify current running backs who are nearing the critical benchmarks indicating the end of a productive career; or not. One of the interesting trends in this study was regarding the longevity of players. It seems as we get closer to more modern times, the number of years players actually have in the league are getting fewer and fewer. It seems more and more and more backs are taking their cue from Barry Sanders. They are ending their careers as productive backs or within one year of their last productive season. They are also right on or darn near thirty years of age. The reasons for this could be plenty, but most probably they have to do with the richness of the contracts running backs are signing in these times. It is good for running backs to get the money while they can because no amount of money frees a player from a career ending injury or the ravages of age. When looking at the current crop of quality running backs bear in mind the age factor of thirty and the benchmark of 2,728 touches of the football.

Corey Dillon
Dillon reached the magic thirty mark in 2004 the year he started with the Patriots. In 2005 he had a drop in production as well as games due largely to an injury. None the less, 2004 marks his last productive year to date. Another indication of Dillon nearing the end of a productive career is right on the mark of 2,728 with a personal total of 2,648 plus what he has attained so far this season. There is a reason the Patriots picked up Maroney in the draft this year, it called an aging running back. Maroney has already proven himself a valuable asset this season the time to acquire him is now. Regular franchise owners may want to look at trading Dillon for something of quality while the getting is good. He will be getting less carries with Maroney in the back field. The needle on the Corey Dillon career fuel tank is nearing empty. Owners in keeper leagues should have this fact in mind.

Fred Taylor
Fred turned thirty last June, but he may still have some mileage in his legs. Taylor has the over hyped reputation of being hurt when he has averaged about 12 games a season. He has this number despite the fact he missed fourteen games in 2001 due to injury. Despite the age “red flag” Taylor is almost two and half seasons under the attempts benchmark. Of course this is barring injury and he does not increase his number of touches radically. If he can last another couple of seasons and be productive he might be worth hanging onto, yet if last year is an indicator Fred’s productive years are now behind him. Taylor gets a rating of “IFFY” regarding his performance though he has looked fairly strong at the outset of this season.

Stephen Davis
The Rams may have picked up Davis for a time this season, but there is no reason for any fantasy owner to do like wise. The last productive year Davis had was in 2004 when he turned thirty. Since then he has played in a total of fifteen games over two seasons. It nice for Stephen to pick up some extra cash and avoid the reality of retirement, but even if Steven Jackson gets hurt Davis will not be the answer.

Tiki Barber
The age of thirty was attained by Tiki last season; he is now 31. Still, at 2,417 touches he is a full season away from the magic attempt number. Tiki spent his first three season with limited touches and production though he was eligible for 44 of 48 games. This respite early on in his career should give Barber at least one more productive season. This could make next season a question mark. Keeper owners should consider this while Tiki is still a player of value. Time waits for no one.

Warrick Dunn
Dunn has participated in a couple of “Thunder and Lightning” scenarios playing the role of lightning. With Tampa Bay he was partnered with Mike Alstott. When he arrived in Atlanta he was partnered with T.J. Duckett. Duckett has been banished to the Redskins, in his place is a rookie Jerious Norwood. It is no mistake the Falcons drafted an elusive rookie; they are looking down the road. To date Dunn is still a productive back. Going into week three he leads the NFL in rushing with 266 yards, yet he has zero scores. This is one of the draw backs of being the lightning in a two back equation. He has never had more than nine rushing TD’s in his career, but this could change this year. (Probably not, but you never know) Dunn has averaged under two hundred touches of the ball per season (175.85) but he is up around the three hundred mark since joining the Falcons. At his current rate he should have one more productive season. Keeper owners should consider a trade while Dunn still has value.

Edgerrin James
At age twenty-eight James is still two seasons from the magic thirty mark, but he is near the 2,728 touches. (2,598) He has this number even after missing almost an entire season due to injury. Given his rate of touches per season of 363, James should be hitting the mark a third of the way through this season. He seems to have healed well from his knee reconstruction, but healthy knees may not trump an inept line. James is going to struggle initially this season, but may still be worth owning for the season. Barring injury, the line will continue to develop and the Cardinals certainly have the passing crew to open up the running game. Where his numbers are going to suffer the most is where the Cards have to play their porous defense. They may be too far behind in games this season to make the rush a viable option at the end of games. The Edge has to be a wait and see decision.

LaDainian Tomlinson
At twenty-seven LT is still a babe at the running back position, but this may not be the case for long. Tomlinson averages a whooping 408.8 touches of the ball every season. No other back looked at in this study came close to the 400 mark; Tomlinson lives there. He may lose some touches this season to his back-up Michael Turner, but he is still going to be the workhorse as well as the face of the team. Given his current rate of travel Tomlinson has two more years of being productive, then he should begin to fade. He seems to have the ability to avoid the huge hit, but the number of touches he gets each season could put him in harms way sooner than later. Fantasy owners should enjoy his production while they can.

Shaun Alexander
The record setter for most touchdowns in a single season has one more year as a youth, then he hits the dreaded thirty. The day is actually August 30 next year. His average of 317.5 touches per season is deceptive as he had contact with the football on only 69 occasions his rookie year. In that year he was playing behind the very productive Ricky Watters, he took Ricky’s place in the 2001 season. Since then he has not touched the ball less than 350 times. At his current rate of production Ricky has two more good seasons in him.

Jamal Lewis
Jamal is still a young man at age twenty-seven and he still has at least three more productive years according to the stats. It would be nice if he would score more TD’s, but his career trend would not seem to indicate this is ever going to happen. Ever since his 2,000+ yard season where he scored fourteen times, he has failed to match the number. Up until this season you could take the 2004 and 05 seasons and get a total of ten scores on the ground. For being a punishing back he seems to lack the ability to find the end zone.

There are players which are done, even though they may not have officially retired. Priest Holmes is listed on the physically unable to perform list for the Chiefs, but he is done. The undrafted free agent who originally went to the Ravens has not played more than half a season over the last three years. At age thirty-one he has over 2000 touches of the ball. In his day he was a class act for both organizations gaining over a thousand yards on the ground in his second season. Having been cut down by injury, it would seem Priest has seen his final days on the field as a player.

Marshal Faulk looks great on the NFL Network in his suit; this genre’, not the football field, is where his futures lies. At age thirty-two his productive years are behind him. Age is not the only factor when looking at Faulk’s future, the man has almost 3,000 touches in his twelve years of professional service. Considering he spent his entire career playing on an artificial surface at home, he is lucky to still be walking.

Another back who should consider a career outside of the gridiron is Curtis Martin. After eleven years in the league his knees seem to no longer support what his heart desires. For his career he is a thousand touches above the mark of 2,728. Sadly, it would appear Martin’s tank has run dry.

Of course there are a myriad of reasons players are successful or not. The biggest reason stands right in front of a running back; his line. An individual player can have all of the skill, desire and heart in the world, but he is going no where without the beasts of burden. (See Lamont Jordan) As popular as many of these running backs were in their time, no one can last forever in a sport where collisions are a part of the equation. Few players retire on top of their game. In this study only Barry Sander and Walter Payton managed this feat. Perhaps Jim Brown had it right, age thirty is a time for a man to get on with other things in life other than football. The number of running backs having success past this magic age is few and far between.

During the turbulent times of the 1960’s the youth of America had a saying; “Don’t trust anyone over thirty.” The same words could be said when referring to running backs in the NFL. Given the level of punishment these players endure it is amazing any of them can be productive to the age of thirty. This study may not answer all of the questions regarding longevity of running backs in the league, but it should add to the decision making process of fantasy owners. When it comes to being a running back in the National Football League no one is an ageless wonder.