8/2/04
The NFL "silly season" comes to a screeching halt on August
ninth when the Broncos take on the Redskins in the Hall of Fame
game in Canton. The off season had its usual number of arrests,
surgeries and free agent signings. To make this year special it
was capped off by the Titans letting a loyal Eddie George go to
Dallas and a stoned Ricky Williams deciding to take grass over NFL
turf. With the silly season over the fun really begins as fantasy
owners gear up for another seventeen weeks of stress, disappointments
and success. To this end the staff at Fantasy Football Today was
asked to rank players
as they saw them and provide this raw information to the fans.
This was a daunting task as some players had yet to sign contracts,
training camps were not open and depth charts were, at best, a
shot in the dark. Still, the staff went to work and presented
two completed player ranking charts, with another to follow soon.
The information presented was raw and, at times, seemed to make
little sense but there seemed to be some recognizable trends and
conclusions if someone was to take a deep plunge into the pool
and swim hard. In an effort to provide some sort of synthesis
to these staff project simple measurements of central tendencies
were applied to the results in an effort to make some sense of
these raw figures.
The results have been broken down and presented by position.
In some cases they go beyond individual positions providing some
indication to staff preference regarding team performances for
the season.
Quarterbacks - Link
to Rankings
Although we have Daunte Culpepper and Peyton Manning
rated one and two respectively, the gap between the two is narrowing.
What it seems to come down to is Culpepper has the added dimension
of being able to run like a bulldozer in high gear while Manning
is a straight pocket guy. They both have formidable receivers
in the form of Randy Moss and Marvin Harrison. What adds to both
of their strengths is the length of experience both quarterbacks
have at their positions and the number of years they have with
two of the finest receivers in recent NFL history. Either one
is a quality first round pick and someone you could ride to a
fantasy post season championship.
As a staff we are clueless as to who will really be starting
in Oakland; and we really don't seem to care. With none of the
Raiders offense ranking in our top 20's, with the exception of
Sebastian Janikowski, and it seems like we think the Silver and
Black may be facing a dark future for the 2004 season. What is
nice to know is the Raiders are not alone in our prognostication.
We feel Eli Manning, despite the draft day hoopla, will not be
the starter for the Giants. Kurt Warner may be the starter, but
is not really a viable player except for the faithful. Although
Carson Palmer has been tabbed as the starter in Cincinnati the
staff has little faith in him, or the Bengal offense in general.
As a whole the Forty-Niners are facing a gloomy future. Tim Rattay
may be ready by the second pre-season game of the season, but
we have little faith he will perform to a high level. (Perhaps
it is because we have no faith in his receiving corps or the rebuilding
job of Dennis Erickson)
We do see some teams as being successful, but the position
of quarterback being relatively insignificant. Baltimore will
be successful, but will not be because of the effort of Kyle Boller.
We see them depending on the running game along with the defense
to keep their kicker Matt Stover on the field to secure wins.
Other non-significant quarterbacks include Quincy Carter, Tommy
Maddox and Rex Grossman. Although Jake Delhomme may have taken
his team to the Super Bowl with an efficient passing game, we
don't see him as someone to waste a first or second round draft
pick.
There are other top guns in the quarterback stable and the
best of the bunch may be Michael Vick. We have the Atlanta defense
rated at or near the bottom and this will place a huge stress
on the offense to win games. Peerless Price and running mate Brian
Finneran will be the main targets creating a formidable receiving
tandem. With the low position we have Duckett and Dunn rated,
the arm and legs of Vick will the offense of the team. This makes
Vick worthy of being someone's first QB in the draft. We also
seem to like McNabb, Bulger, and McNair along with Aaron Brooks
as potential game busters worthy of going in the first round.
We are putting much faith in the Eagle's acquisition of Terrell
Owens and the receiving tandems of Holt/Bruce and Horn/Stallworth
as well as the revamped receiving corps of the Titans led by Derrick
Mason.
The best back ups of the draft would seem to be Tom Brady,
Trent Green, Chad Pennington, Jake Plummer and Byron Leftwich
On the surface it may appear Jeff Garcia should rank as a top
back-up, but the jury is out as to his ranking figures indicating
a certain amount of doubt in our minds. The same could be said
of Trent Green if for no other reason than we are only certain
he will be throwing the ball to Tony Gonzalez and handing the
ball to Priest Holmes a lot.
As a whole we see the steal of the draft being Matt Hasselback.
The only reason he is not above the ranking of number nine is
one of the staff writers has little faith in him. (With myself
being the writer, I can assure the opinion will change before
the next player rankings) Hasselbeck has a strong receiving corps
with Shaun Alexander to carry the ball effectively.
Though aging, sometimes not too graceful, we still see
Brett Favre as being one of the best QB's in the business. We
are unclear who will be his main receiver, but we are certain
he will find someone. (At the moment NFL.com is showing Donald
Driver and Ferguson as the primary targets.) Other aging quarterbacks
are not going to fair as well. Vinny Testaverde will not be the
starter in Dallas and we could see Kerry Collins supplant Rich
Gannon in Oakland. It seems Gannon, though healed, does not seem
to be able to complete the long ball as they have been falling
short in practice. (It is not because of the speed of the geritol
team of Rice and Brown) It could be the former MVP will be replaced
before the season starts by Collins as he fits better into the
Norv Turner scheme of stretching the field. Drew Bledsoe is tapped
as a strong back up, but not a starter for this fantasy season.
We do not see any of the "Big Three" draft picks
being of any consequence this season. We see Rivers starting in
San Diego but, outside of Tomlinson, there is nothing in the franchise
worth taking in the draft except for pure spec purposes. Despite
the dance steps taken by poppa and son Manning to land Eli in
the love fest known as New York City, he will not be the starter
at the beginning of the season and a solid performance by Kurt
Warner could leave him on the bench for the season. Roethlisberger
may start the season collecting metal shavings (there are no wooden
benches in the NFL) indicating a good performance by Tommy Maddox
will keep him there for the season. As far as Drew Breese is concerned,
he is not even on the staff radar; for that matter neither is
Rivers.
Running Backs - Link
to Rankings
Over all we see the running back position being the strongest
out of all positions we were asked to evaluate. We seem to be
in full agreement on the rankings from one to twenty with little
variation between the first and second set of rankings. Running
backs will be the bulwark of most fantasy teams and there is plenty
of room for speculation and surprise here as the free agent market
was very active in the of season.
The legal problems of Jamal Lewis will not interfere
with his performance this season. In short, we see him as not
being guilty and still being among the top backs in the league.
The top ten did not change between the two rankings.
Although Ricky Williams has decided to travel the world instead
of defensive back fields this season, his decision will probably
not have much effect on our rankings. At the moment Travis Minor
has been tapped as the starter. During the last three seasons
Minor has seen action a third down back showing some impressive
speed along with an ability to catch the ball. The fourth year
back out of Florida State has 930 total yards with a total of
six TD's. At 5'10" and 205 pounds he has never missed a game.
Given these factors, he could be the steal of the draft this season.
We don't see the free agents or rookies having much of
an impact for anyone's team. As far as Duce Staley, Charlie Garner,
or Corey Dillon are concerned, they all rate the role of back-up
and not as a premier back. It might be true Dallas drafted Julius
Jones and Detroit drafted Kevin Jones as starters, we don't see
them as being anything special this season.
Although we see Marshall Faulk as being nearer the end
than the beginning of his career, we don't see a clear back-up
on the Ram's roster. Marshall has finally dropped to the position
of back-up for anyone's fantasy team and, given his penchant for
injury and incomplete seasons; it has been a long time coming.
Michael Bennett may be the starter in Minnesota, but he is
going to split time with both Onterrio Smith and Moe Williams.
Other teams with running backs who may be splitting time making
them not worthy of first round consideration are the Eagles with
Buckhalter and Westbrook, the Falcons with Duckett and Dunn, the
Panthers with an aging Stephen Davis and an emerging DeShaun Foster
and the Raiders with Tyrone Wheatley and Justin Fargas.
As a group we have reached the conclusion Oakland, Atlanta,
Arizona, Denver or Cleveland will have much of a running attack.
In Cleveland William Green has stated he is clear of his demons
and ready to roll in his third year, but we see Lee Suggs replacing
him as the starter as a rookie. Garrison Hearst may be the starter
in Denver, but we really don't see him as being better than a
third running back on anyone's team.
Wide Receivers - Link
to Rankings
As a group we are much divided regarding who will be
stable receivers outside of the top three of Randy Moss, Holt
and Harrison. Although Terrell Owens comes in ranked at four consistently,
the spread of opinion amongst the staff is too wide to be an accurate
barometer of his performance this season. We seem to have no idea
who will be the receiving studs past the very top group.
We do not see any rookie wide out as having a dramatic impact
on any team's passing game. This is not to say another Boston
or Boldin will not emerge this season, it just means we don't
see it happening.
The best pass receiving duos seem to be on Pittsburgh (Ward
and Burress), New Orleans (Horn and Stallworth), Seattle (Robinson
and Jackson), Denver (Smith and Lelie), Colts (Harrison and Wayne),
Miami (Chambers and Boston) and the Rams (Holt and Bruce). Out
of these combinations we seem to have more faith in the Rams pair
than any other set of receivers in the league.
The worst passing teams in the league will be Oakland, Cleveland,
Kansas City, New England, San Francisco and Green Bay. There appear
to be a variety of reasons for doubts regarding these teams ranging
from too many receivers (New England) to no proven receivers or
quarterbacks, (San Francisco). Age also plays a factor as the
Raider passing and receiving units are nearer the end of their
careers than the beginning. (Some would suggest they should have
ended their respective careers at the end of last season.)
Although we have up graded Derrick Mason to the top ten
in the second round of selections, we still don't have a great
deal of faith in the Tennessee passing attack. We even up graded
McNair from a five to a fourth selection, but this does not appear
to be a ringing endorsement of the team's effectiveness.
It is not so much we see the receiving position as being weak
in the NFL, we seem to see the position as being very inconsistent
with a few exceptions. The old saying, "You can't win with
wide receivers," seems to be holding true. An owner may not
win with them, but they will surely lose if the stable is not
strong. This is a group which bares closer scrutiny and could
be the most interesting variable of the draft this season.
Tight End - Link
to Rankings
Like the other receivers, tight ends will be at a premium.
Outside of the top five, which includes rookie Kellen Winslow,
we don't see a lot of consistency or big numbers from the players.
An owner in a tight end required league should make their selection
at this position early if they are going to see any real production
from their players.
Tony Gonzalez may be the pick of the litter, and we feel
the main target of Trent Green in Kansas City, but Todd Heap,
Alge Crumpler, Shockey and Winslow will have productive seasons.
Like Gonzalez, we see Winslow being the mainstay of the passing
attack in Cleveland.
As a whole we seem to think the younger tight ends will
be more productive than the elder statesmen. None of the top ranked
players are near their thirties making them great prospects for
any keeper league owner.
Boo Williams may be slightly over-rated as a receiver.
Despite the fact Dallas Clark and Jim Kleinsasser play almost
the same position for their respective teams, we rate Clark higher.
It seems we think the main role of the "big man" in
Minnesota is to clear the way for Bennett and protect Culpepper.
We see a battle for the starting position in Oakland between
Doug Jolley and Teyo Johnson; in the long run it will not matter.
Oakland's offense this season is certainly suspect as we have
little faith in any of the players being productive.
Kickers - Link
to Rankings
For some strange reason we see kickers as being a fairly
stable group of players; there are plenty of good quality kickers
and they should be able to be found later in the draft. Hang in
there and focus on wide receivers instead of this group of stallions.
There seems to be no preferences of dome kickers over
their out door counter parts. In fact we seem to prefer the grass
kickers over those in the dome as only three of the top ten and
seven of the top twenty are dome kickers. Despite these numbers,
we see the top two kickers as being Vanderjagt and Wilkins and
they play in the sterility of an indoor environment with plastic
turf.
If kickers are an indication of the offensive power of
a team we don't see the Niners, Giants as being credible threats
and we see the unstable Sebastian Janikowski as being the rock
of the Raider's offense.
We may see Paul Edinger and Josh Brown as being over rated,
but we see the aging Morton Anderson as being slightly under rated.
Seems age has no influence on the production of kickers, in fact
we see age as being one of the factors contributing to the consistency
of these non-contact players. It seems the likes of Nedney, Carney
and Anderson has been in the league forever.
Defense - Link
to Rankings
We seem to have some semblance of agreement on the top
ten defenses with Carolina being slightly over rated compared
to the top two of Baltimore and New England. We also feel there
is great improvement in both Minnesota and St. Louis on this end
of the ball. Over all we see these two teams as being the most
balanced in the league as the offenses for Carolina, Baltimore
and New England will try not to make mistakes allowing the defense
to carry the team.
Over all we see Oakland and San Francisco as having fairly
miserable seasons with little offensive of defensive fire power.
It could be sad season for all of the fans in the Bay Area.
The best teams to have your players in against are Arizona,
Houston and Atlanta. We seem to have their offenses rated fairly
high, but their defenses as being non-existent. This factor could
make players on the offensive side of the ball sleepers for these
teams as they will have to score plenty to stay competitive.
We seem to over rate the defenses of the Dolphins, Panthers,
Titans and Chiefs. It seems the staff has faith in the traditions
of the first three and faith in the abilities of Gunther Cunningham
in Kansas City.
As far as under rated defenses we see Dallas, Washington,
Cincinnati and Cleveland as having the ability to rise and be
amongst the top teams in the league this season. It appears we
have confidence in the abilities of Joe Gibbs, Bill Parcells,
Marvin Lewis and Bruce Davis to keep their teams on a steady course
focusing more on success of the "D" while hoping their
offenses play mistake proof football towards victories. This seems
to be supported by the fact we have virtually none of their offense
flying high enough to be a radar blip.
Given the information, we seem to think the formerly
formidable AFC West as the dregs of football. With the exception
of a few players like LaDainian Tomlinson or Jason Elam, there
are few players worth considering outside of the role of back
up; even then we see them as fairly weak support players.
The biggest surprise in this area of ranking may be the Minnesota
Vikings. For the last few season they have been one of the league's
defensive doormats. We feel like Mike Tice may be making a difference
as they could be the power in the NFC Central. At the very least
we appear to think this will be another season where Green Bay
and Minnesota will be fighting it out for a play-off spot.
One factor which should have been anticipated is the staff
seeming to reach more agreement in the second ranking as opposed
to the first. This should not surprise anyone as shared rankings
are one means of achieving consensus. An update to the Rankings
will be coming out very soon; these numbers should be even closer.
Another factor which should jump out at people is the amount
of disagreement this expert staff seems to have regarding players
and defenses. There was no room in this survey for individuals
to explain why they rated players the way they did, but the
number of variables would probably be huge. This should give
all owners out there solace as it would seem we have as many
varied opinions as they do.
So here you have it folks; rankings by a staff of committed
fantasy observers who can't seem to agree on much but together
seem to have a finger on the pulse of the league. These are
the factors which make this game so dog gone interesting. As
usual there will be players who will emerge as the season unfolds
who are no where in the rankings now.
The only thing which can be said is owners have to do their
own research, rely upon their own opinions and make the gut
wrenching calls as they see them. It is said when we seek advice
we are only seeking affirmation of our exiting opinions. Have
faith in yourself, use these
rankings as a part of your research efforts, but don't take
anything the experts say as gospel; we don't. What makes all
of us successful, to a greater or lesser degree, is the fact
we trust our opinions and feelings regarding players. We employ
our own strategies into this wonderfully silly activity we call
fantasy football. It may be reassuring to use others rankings
to create a team; after all you can always blame someone else.
In the end there will not be anyone to blame or congratulate
except yourself; place your trust there and let the games begin.
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