12/6/00
The regular season of the NFL is beginning to wind down. Your league
may be looking at playoffs next week and the big boys are looking
toward the Super Bowl. It is the time of year where closure seems
to be everywhere, but it may be a great time of year to do some reflection.
Look at your draft from this year and check the last six players you
selected. If you are like a lot of people, you probably have not played
many of these players much, if at all. If this is the case, then you
have wasted one of the golden opportunities of the draft… The
chance to discover new talent and be the first one on your block to
have the next hot player in NFL fantasy football.
To see if you have squandered this chance, look past round eight.
In the first eight rounds of the draft you may have selected your
starters for the season and maybe a solid back up at one or two of
the positions. If you were typical you got the best kicker you could
find and settled for a tight end that may have one or two good weeks
during the season. From round nine on many people feel it is garbage
time and they are just trying to fill out the rest of the rounds with
players from their favorite teams, players who have newly entered
the league or may be coming off of injuries, or players who may be
in the twilight of their careers. Chances are there is nothing really
special in the last six picks of the draft and you are busy covering
off weeks, taking injuries into account or just trying to make yourself
feel good by selecting someone comfortable. If this is the case, break
out of the box and try some different strategies next season. Look
at these last six selections as a valued six-pack of your favorite
beverage and have some fun while you enjoy every sip. This way you
can covet every pick and look forward to taking situational advantages
during the long season ahead. Dare to be different!
Identify the strategies of the players in your league. They may be
dying to take a player from their favorite team, but the team really
has little in quality talent. Despite this, they will take any player
just to have them on their team. It gives them something to root for
though the player may be a major disappointment during the season.
There is nothing wrong in doing this, but it is not a productive tactic.
If you did this in the last draft, don't be offended, I once took
Marc Wilson. Mark the owner with this strategy as it provides you
with the opportunity to sluff a round and pick up some lesser-known
talent later. You should also note the player who is going to be smart
and stay within the numbers.
This owner has their starting players and is going to take back ups
for each of the positions. This being the case, they are going to
take five players and leave themselves with the chance to select one
risk player for the season. They will probably take the afore mentioned
player coming off of an injury, the one with a year to retirement
or the one they may have had three years ago during their glory years.
Their last six may cover an off week for another player, but that
will end his tour of usefulness. You can identify these owners by
looking at the master draft list from the beginning of the season
and guess they will be doing the same thing next year.
During the draft next year, look for the owner treating the last six
picks as garbage time. They will be thumbing through the fantasy magazine
they bought on the way to the draft and they will be selecting players
they have never heard of because the book says they are good. This
owner may not realize these publications are written and published
before the preseason even starts and the player they have selected
may have already been cut or out for the season with an injury. You
can figure their strategy by buying a fantasy magazine yourself and
becoming familiar with their selections. It does not matter which
one you buy, their draft ratings are all about the same. (I bought
three this year, but they are a tax write off.) Instead of wasting
these last selections, have some fun and approach them with a different
attitude and game plan.
Even if you are out of the playoffs in your league, and feeling discouraged,
watch some of the teams who have struggled this season and may have
poor records. It is still the NFL regular season and they may be playing
against playoff contenders. They may not win, but they may perform
well and be testing new talent for next season. According to the gurus
who do the scheduling for next season, these down trodden franchises
should get an easier schedule outside of their division by playing
teams who also struggled this last season. Study the players and take
note of those who are showing some potential, they could develop over
the off-season and be steady players next year. The 49ers had a terrible
season last year, and their record this year is nothing they want
to share with their grandchildren, but Jeff Garcia, Charlie Garner
and Terrell Owens would have been great selections for 2000. With
another poor record this year, and another year of development, 49ers
could be premier team for next year.
You can down play the performance of the three B's, Bengals, Browns
and Bears, this season, but they may have players who will blossom
next year. All three have quarterbacks entering their critical third
year of development and Akili Smith, Cade McNown and Tim Couch have
had moments of brilliance during the course of the season. They also
have wide receivers like Peter Warrick, Marcus Robinson and Kevin
Johnson who could have break out seasons. In addition to the passing
combinations they have backs like James Allen, Travis Prentice, and
the never consistent Corey Dillon to pin some sort of hope of a running
game upon. (Provided Corey is still in tiger stripes.) Aside from
these three league bottom feeders, the Cardinals have the likes of
Davis Boston and Michael Pittman who seem to be playing hard despite
their team's horrid performance this season. If there is any truth
in scheduling, these teams should have relatively cream puff schedules
and these players could be real terrors next year.
Looking at this season, there appears to be entire conferences with
a complete lack of defense. With the exception of the Saints, the
NFC West would fall into this category. The Rams can't win unless
they score over thirty points and you never know which Carolina team
is going to show. The two black and blue divisions, The NFC and AFC
Central, have the Bucs and the Titans, but the rest appear to have
put on the heavy gloves and seem to spend more time dancing than hitting.
Teams in the same conference play each other twice during the season
and this automatically provides double the opportunity for solid performances
from fantasy players.
Don't get caught in playing the numbers game when it comes to the
positions of tight end and kicker. With the exception of perhaps the
top five, tight end has become almost a non-scoring position. In fact,
some leagues are considering dropping the position all together and
allowing three wide outs to be played instead. The position of kicker
has always been a crapshoot. They are dependent upon the variables
of weather and an offensive that stalls when it nears the red zone.
Fill each of the positions with the best player available during the
draft, but don't select a back up. There are always emerging or solid
players you can get in the free agent market and it provides you with
two more open positions to fill with potential scoring players during
the last selections of the draft. In the past Kurt Warner, Terrell
Davis and Stephen Davis were all bottom round selections. Allowing
yourself two more spots to select a potential star could make you
the envy of the league, or at least provide some interesting trade
bait during the season. Besides, there is always a dome kicker available
sometime in the season, you don't need one up front when the sun is
shining and the snow is not flying.
Aside from winning, the draft is probably the most fun part of any
fantasy season. Why look at the final six selections like everyone
else? There is no fun in being a part of the crowd, it is just being
a part of the status quo and you may as well just flush your last
six picks because they will be the same crap as the rest of the owners
have. The greatest decisions are made by people who dare to be outside
of the box of convention and seek the greener pastures of the unknown.
If Knute Rockne had never utilized the forward pass, he may have become
an unknown chemist. If Bill Gates had not thought beyond FORTRAN,
there would be no Microsoft. The greats have never been confined in
their thinking, they have always been different from the rest and
their risks have changed our lives. Be different, be an individual,
think outside of the box and dare to be great. What have you got to
lose except watching another year of fantasy playoffs from the sidelines?
Take the road less traveled and see where you end up. What have you
got to lose except being in the money?
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