1/8/01
It is strange how things go in life. The experts agree it is going
to be a hard winter, but the snow barely falls and the temperature
never dips below 20 degrees. The NFL pundits have the Rams in the
Super Bowl half way through the season, and they make the playoffs
by the skin of their teeth only to lose in the first round to the
Saints. The Saints lose Blake and Williams and people have them in
the grave, but they rose during the season like the Phoenix. At the
beginning of the 2000 NFL season all of the fantasy players I know
stressed about the lack of running backs in the league, but they have
blossomed.
The question is, who will be the first to be wrong about next year's
trends and when will they emerge? I would like to be among the first
to place my head on the chopping block.
At the beginning of the season there were Faulk, James and everyone
else at running back. I did not know anyone who, with confidence,
could select five consistent backs. I selected number six in one draft
and I was the first to select a wide out. During the previous selection
were four running backs and Kurt Warner. In the first round a total
of seven picks were running backs, aside from Marvin Harrison and
Warner, Peyton Manning was the only other non- rusher taken. All seven
of the running backs were standards; James, Faulk, Stephen Davis,
Eddie George, T. Davis, E. Smith, Martin, but two out of the six seemed
almost to be desperation picks due to the perceived shortage. Terrell
Davis was coming off of serious injury and had a terrible season,
while Emmitt is a sure third or fourth round pick, but not a first
rounder any more. It was obvious there was an air of panic to get
the best running backs before they were all gone.
Through the next few rounds the positions selections began to disperse
as owners sought to fill out a starting line up and quality back ups.
It was not until the final four rounds the panic again set in as people
scrambled to snatch up the remaining talent at the running back position.
One should take some chances during these rounds, but the choices
of Mike Cloud, Napoleon Kaufman, Kimble Anders, Natrone Means and
Donnell Bennett are really stretching the envelope. With apologies
to the Kansas City Chiefs, none of their running backs are worth a
pick because of the team philosophy and almost all of them were taken.
Natrone Means has not been a blip on the radar for two years and Napoleon
Kaufman has never produced beyond the level of being a free agent
selection. During 160 selections of that draft few players dared to
take the likes of a Jamal Lewis or Lamar Smith and I doubt the trend
was much different across the country.
The likes of James Allen, Ahman Green, Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson
were players, picked up in free agency, but they, with the exception
of Gary, were not the only backs to emerge in the season 2000. James
Stewart had a steady season for Detroit and Mr. Inconsistent, Corey
Dillon, had almost equal peaks and valleys. There were a couple of
thunder and lightening combinations in the form of Tiki Barber/Ron
Dayne and Jamal Lewis/Priest Holmes who were fun to watch. Jerome
Bettis once again became, "The Bus" and Lamar Smith, hidden
as a Saint, finally brought the Dolphins a running game. It seems
the running back position will be a rich vein to mine in the 2001
season as Duce Staley will return, Ricky Williams appears to be coming
into his own and everyone should have the problems of the Broncos
with Davis, Gary and Anderson. Some teams like the Ravens, Seahawks
and 49ers could come close. Perhaps the strength at running back in
the NFL has come at the expense of the tight end. There appear to
be running backs aplenty, but actual receiving tight ends are a real
premium.
Gone are the days of Casper, Winslow, Chester and Jackson. The tight
end has evolved into the H-Back or extra blocker to spring the running
back or protect the quarterback. With the exception of Tony Gonzalez
and Wesley Walls, who made a quick exit to the season, fantasy owners
were praying for a tight end who will score a consistent five or six
points per week. The last week of the season had four different tight
ends scoring, but this was a mirage. When the likes of Freddy Jones,
Kyle Brady and Kent Dilger are considered to be prime pick-ups, it
may be time for a change in the league format. To this end leagues
are considering adopting rules to allow three wide outs in a line
up and no tight end. If the NFL can change the rules of defense to
promote more offense, why not a fantasy league? An owner could still
use a tight at a higher weighting, but the position would be optional
in the line up. The demise of the tight end has not been the only
change in the NFL, finding a consistent wideout has become the search
for the Holy Grail.
Thinking back on the season, I cannot come up with one week in, week
out, consistent wide out. There were some outstanding performances,
record setting games, but many receivers were limited to a touchdown
and minimal yardage, or even worse. Jimmy Smith shined, at times,
but suffered through an inconsistent season along with the likes of
Issac Bruce, Terrell Owens, Tim Brown and Randy Moss. Even Chris Carter
struggled at the beginning of the season and did not really emerge
as "The Man" for any league owners receiving corp. Owners
next year may be looking to draft wide outs en masse on the bases
of match up potential and not the ability to score against "any
team." The shift of many teams to the philosophy of defense wins
championships, it may take four or more wide outs to have consistent
points from the position in 2001. Of course, the effectiveness of
any receiver is dependent upon the philosophy of the organization
and the ability of the quarterback. This position too has suffered
in the aspect of consistency.
The owner who drafted Kurt Warner at the beginning of the season was
the only owner to see consistent superior performances, but they only
lasted until his injury. The post injury Warner began weak and was
only been mortal in finishing the season. There are a lot of solid
veterans in the league, but even Brett Favre hardly lit things up
and Steve McNair is limited by the system of the organization. There
appear to be a lot of teams saying, "Don't make mistakes,"
as opposed to, "Make it happen." Fiedler in Miami, Collins
in New York and, to an extent, Drew Bledsoe in New England have all
fallen victim to, "Don't lose it for us, but win the game."
Of course there are seven quarterbacks entering into their third seasons,
but Akili Smith and Cade McNown have failed to show any true brilliance
and neither one finished out the season as the starter. Daunte Culpepper
may be the most productive of the bunch and he plays in a system where
three starting quarterbacks have had success in the last three years.
Although Aaron Brooks appears to be the real deal, he has not been
tested throughout a full season. Steve McNair has led his team during
the season, but his numbers have been less than spectacular. He wins
any way he can and that means scrambling effectively for first downs.
It seems the philosophy of "win ugly" has taken over in
many organizations and fantasy owners are going to be hard pressed
to find a consistently superior player at quarterback, but there are
a lot of ho-hum players in the league. The draft of 2001 would seem
vanilla at this position and it may be a place where a savvy owner
can sluff and fill in the cracks in the rest of the offense.
In the fantasy draft for the year 2001 consistency will be the thing
lacking from almost every team owner. To be effective, owners are
really going to have to do their homework and draft according to schedules
and divisions. Off-season trades and acquisitions are going to have
to be monitored closely as teams attempt to build an offensive line
to produce winners. NFL teams may even take the direction of the Ravens
and Tampa Bay and under rate their offenses to build defenses that
can thwart the lagging offenses now existing in the league. Balance
is going to be the key for any success next year as the superstar
player takes a back seat to the considerations of the salary cap and
free agency. There is a huge
side of me that hopes I am wrong. I love having a player who will
consistently have twenty or more points a week, but I have lowered
my expectations and hope for any group I have playing during a week
to each score ten points. Consistency is what will determine next
year's fantasy champions, as parody in fantasy football will parallel
the NFL. I just see it as a tough goal to achieve. Of course I could
be wrong, but I am not going to lose my head over the whole deal.
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