1/22/02
At my first fantasy draft I had absolutely no idea what I was doing.
I had received some expert advice, but I could not totally grasp the
concept. To assist me I picked up a, "Miller Lite Fantasy Draft
Preview." I began to study. I had decided if he were available,
I would select a rookie running back by the name of Barry Sanders.
I saw no problem with the choice. I did not realize rookies were iffy
propositions who probably should not be taken in the first round.
I cultivated this pearl of wisdom during a round of golf with one
of the other owners. Based on this, I began to question my choice.
Draft night arrived. I was picking lower down the ladder. It gave
me time to consider my selection. I kept pondering my selection. As
my turn neared, Barry was still available. Once again I turned to
the Miller Lite guide. I noticed all of the other top selections in
the book were taken. There was only one player left. I contemplated
my move. My original choice or the best choice left in the guide?
My time came. My head buzzed with confusion. I felt squeamish, indecisive,
excited. My first selection in the draft would be a true measure of
my football knowledge, something to show the rest of the owners my
savvy. I took a deep breath, then selected Nick Lowry, kicker for
the Kansas City Chiefs.
The laughter erupted then faded. "That's a new strategy. Kicker
first. Never seen it done before." Other comments followed. Despite
the razzing, I knew I had made the best choice available. I sat stoic,
not saying a word. I knew I had done the right thing.
Needless to say, Barry Sanders went on the have a terrific rookie
year. I finished the first half of the season dead last. I learned
quickly. By the end of the season I was in second place over-all and
second place for the second half of the season. I finished in the
money. In the process I became hooked on fantasy football, kickers
also haunted me every year. This season was no exception.
I have grown to loath kickers. I see them as a necessary evil in the
football world, but I did not always have this view. I used to admire
kickers. They were players who played in the game. They came to the
sidelines, put on their square-toed shoe, then booted the ball when
the team scored or the offense bogged down. They were as dirty as
the rest of the players on the field with nick names like, "The
Toe," "Slingin Sammy," or "The Old Man."
They were real players who also kicked.
Imagine having a guy like, "Slinging" Sammy Baugh on your
team. After running for 30 or 40 yards and passing for a touchdown,
the guy kicks the extra point. During the course of the game he may
"drop kick" a field goal from outside of 37 yards. In addition
to this Sammy was a defense back who was among the leaders in interceptions
and touchdowns. The possible fantasy points would be incredible.
The same could be said for the grizzled veteran George Blanda. Blanda
rarely started a game towards the end of his career for the Raiders,
but he came in during critical situations. He would take the snap,
stagger back, then connect with Warren Wells for a long TD. In many
games he was the difference. After connecting with a wobbler to Wells
he would kick the game winning field goal. One such performance against
the Browns had Raider announcer Bill King wanting to elect him, King
of the World." Eventually, into his forties, Blanda was forced
to retire. He was the last of the player/kickers who struck a ball
head-on. Another type of kicker had arrived on the scene…the
specialist.
Specialization has been a part of civilization since the founding
of farming led to sedentary life. Specialization in the NFL began
with the platoon system. For the first time players specialized in
offense or defense. By the end of the 60's specialization had become
so myopic as to include special teams, third down and snapping specialists.
The square-toed kicker had been replaced by the, "side winder."
The first was Jan Stenirude of the Kansas City Chiefs.
The coach of the Chiefs, Hank Stram, did a lot to revolutionize the
game of football. He brought in the, "Power I" formation,
the utilization of small, yet quick running backs like Mike Garrett
and Warren McVay and the, "Choir" huddle. Yet his legacy
may be the introduction of a soccer player, Jan Stenirude, to the
game of football. Stenirude never had a dirty uniform. Never participated
in a real play from scrimmage, but he was one of the more accurate
kickers to ever play the game. By the mid-seventies the league was
full of soccer style kickers with foreign sounding names making an
excellent living in the NFL kicking field goals.
Although I still grumble about the loss of "real players"
as kickers, I have learned to accept the reality. We live in a world
of run specialists, pass specialists, goal line specialists and dime
backs. Everyone on a team has a limited, but important role to play.
The team depends on everyone doing their job with a certain amount
of perfection to win. The same is true in fantasy football. The reality
has been a bitter pill to swallow. I figure I lost at least five match-ups
this season because of poor performance by kickers. Unfortunately,
this was not the first season I was thwarted by kickers. To improve
my performance for next season, I resolved to create a solid strategy
for the next draft.
One of the myths I hear from owners is to make sure you select a "Dome
Kicker." After all, they kick in the hermetically sealed confines
of perfect temperature and no wind. They will be warm when the weather
outside is below zero, dry when a regular field is a mud hole. There
could be no better, or more consistent place for a kicker to perform
than a dome covering plastic turf. The stats say no. Out of the top
ten kickers in the league, only three call their field, "Dome
Sweet Dome." The best, Jay Feely of Atlanta finished fourth over
all. The worst dome kicker was Jason Hanson. He finished number 20
in the leagues. Then again, he played for the Lions. Enough said.
Domes don't seem to be the magic answer. Perhaps another strategy
would be better to follow.
Why not select a kicker from a high-powered offense? They score a
lot and are always seeking points. A kicker in such a system should
score prolifically. Again, the stats would say this is wrong. Four
of the most high-powered offenses in the league were the Rams, Forty
Niners, Packers and the Colts. Only one of their kickers, Mike Vanderjagt,
finished in the top ten at number five. Jose Cortez finished 25th
in the league followed closely by Ryan Longwell at number 22. Jeff
Wilkins of the Rams was a perfect 58 for 58 at extra points finishing
first but in the middle of the pack for over all scoring. Selecting
a kicker from a high-powered offense seems to be more dead weight
than live foot. Apparently this too is not the answer. There must
be another solution.
I know! Select a kicker from a team sure to be a playoff contender.
They are always looking for points and some of their games could be
real tight requiring the services of a, "Big Foot" to keep
play-off hopes alive. Once again, wrong! First, there are very few
teams who are a playoff lock at the beginning of the season. Too many
things can happen from September to the end of December. But, even
if you could figure out the playoff teams back in the drafts of August,
the stats would kill you again. Out of the top ten, only four are
in the play-offs. Two of them, Matt Stover and Kris Brown, finished
second and third respectively. Olindo Mare and Jose Cortez finished
at the bottom of the league in kicker scoring. The rest of the playoff
bound kickers finished in the middle of the pack. Being on a quality
team does not seem to equate with being a top kicker. There must be
another means of selecting a sure-footed master.
Success strategies don't appear to be the solution; perhaps team failure
could be a measure of a winning kicker. Bingo! Out of the top ten
kickers in the league, six played for losing, or at best break even,
programs. The number one kicker in the league was Jason Elam of the
8 and 8 Broncos. Some may attribute this to the, "Mile High"
lack of air, but the same could not be said of Todd Peterson or Brett
Conway. To reinforce the, "Pick a loser" strategy, 11 of
the top 25 kickers in the NFL played for losing teams including John
Kasay of the Carolina Panthers. Kicking the ball for the losingest
team in football, he finished fourteenth in the league. Though this
strategy may appear to be successful, it equates with taking your
sister to the prom or playing low-ball poker. It does not feel like
playing to win. The thought is depressing. There must be a better
answer.
What about teams who pass the ball a lot? Nope. It appears these teams
have kickers who fall somewhere in the middle of the pack all the
way down to the bottom. The same could be said for teams with a balanced
pass/run offense. The last option would be to research teams who are
offensively challenged, teams who play offense not lose because they
win with defense.
Teams who are defensive oriented, with run as their primary offensive
focus, seem to have highly rated kickers. Almost 60% of the teams
who focus on defense to win, employ a consistent kicker, or play offense
not to lose have kickers in the top 25. This figure also holds true
for the top ten. Matt Stover and Kris Brown finished two and three
respectively. Kickers on teams who met this criterion also held the
spots of seven through ten.
So what does all of this mean? To have a successful/consistent kicker
on your fantasy team for 2002 look to teams who run the risk of finishing
near the bottom of the league or are on offenses so boring to watch
the kick itself is cause for celebration? Are we to select kickers
from teams offensively inept or aerially challenged? The answer appears
to be yes, because the longest play of the day will be the 46-yard
field goal to beat the opposition 9 to 7. Could there be anything
in life more boring? Is this what NFL specialization has brought to
us? It is a sorry state for owners who love fast action and play making.
Having the excitement of the game be a ground drive to field goal
range, then watch a clean uniformed "non-player" trot on
the field, pick his spot, pace his steps, then swing his foot into
the ball is about as exciting as watching paint dry.
Face it. The biggest kicking news stories of the year were Bill Gramatica
injuring his knee celebrating a field goal and Sebastian Janikowsi's
bout with cellulitis in his kicking foot. (After last year he decided
to tone down his off field antics.) Is there any wonder I dread selecting
these football specialists? (I refuse to call them players.) The most
entertainment a kicker brings to the game is when they make some sorry
attempt to tackle a player. It is hardly compelling action.
Kickers may not win you any match ups during the season, but they
can sure lose them. If fantasy football is supposed to simulate the
real thing, and it does, then kickers are an important part of the
game. Coaches pull out there hair over, "wide right." Some
times they even lose their jobs. Gamblers win or lose on the half
point. Kickers are the guys out there with three seconds left in a
two- point game and all of the pressure is on them. It would be nice
to find another solution, but they are the best percentage answers.
I doubt even Marshall Faulk could run for a 50 yard score more consistently
than a kicker can convert from the distance. The thing is, I doubt
Marshall would ever want to be a kicking specialist. Kickers are a
strange breed, unfortunately I enjoy watching a thoroughbred. Next
season I plan on taking one kicker from a team with a boring as heck
offense and not watch a single game. There is a place for kickers
in the NFL, most of the time it is on the bench.
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