12/9/99
Over seventy percent of the season is complete and the time has
arrived to begin planning next year's draft. If you have been astute,
you have been checking out some of the developing talent and deciding
whether or not the existing talent will hold up for another season.
A strategy you may want to consider, in getting an early start to
next season, is to look at the draft and the season the same way
investors look at money markets. In particular the stock market.
There are many parallels between the market and a fantasy draft. If
players and teams are looked at as investments, they are very similar.
Players can be rated as SUPER BLUE CHIP, BLUE CHIP, INITIAL PUBLIC
OFFERINGS, BOTTOM FEEDERS and HOT NEW ISSUES as they share many of
the characteristics of their monetary counter parts. Owners fall into
the categories of VALUE INVESTORS, SPECULATORS, MOMENTUM INVESTORS
and PLUNGERS. If you can begin to look at your team as a portfolio,
and your league as the pool of investment sharks, then you may be
able to plan more accurately and improve your possible performance
in the ensuing season.
Before you even begin to track this year's draft and free agent market,
think about what kind of investor you profile you seem to fit. Of
course a solid portfolio depends on being all of these types of investors,
but I think you will find that one of these profiles may suit a dominant
side of your draft/investment personality.
When left between a selection of two players, one being a reliable
veteran, and the other being a possible up and coming star, you select
the latter, then you are a Value Investor. Whether it is a coaching
change, a recent acquisition, or a shift towards the positive for
a team at the end of the season, you reason this player is ready to
blossom. If you can be the one to grab him, you will be the first
to cash in and reap the rewards of a major acquisition. The list of
players here would exclude all rookies, but would include first year
pros. Realizing the coaching change at Buffalo, when many experts
had written off O.J., would have been akin to buying Standard Oil
before the split up of the corporation. Scoring the Come Back Player
of the Year on offense is like buying Coca-Cola in 1920 at ten dollars
per share. Being more current, players like Charlie Garner, Stephen
Davis, Jon Kitna, Marvin Harrison, Issac Bruce and Duce Staley have
realized steady to formidable seasons because of changes in their
playing realm. There is an element of risk here, as with anywhere
in the market, players like Ryan Leaf, Lawrence Phillips and Rick
Mirer will probably be mediocre to losers for the rest of their careers.
For some people environment will never overcome being a head case.
If you see yourself as primarily a Value Investor, do your homework.
Check the histories of coaches and systems with performance of individual
players and see how well odd balls have done under their tutelage
and rely upon your gut educated guess. As a Value Investor you may
like to take risks, but it is backed by facts, Speculators rely just
upon their ego and their desire to obtain the latest Initial Public
Offering first.
Speculators are the biggest risk takers,
the biggest winners and the biggest losers in the market. If you were
the first to take Ricky Williams this year or saw the potential
of Edgerrin James and David Boston, then you are probably a big time
Speculator. If you took one of them in the top three rounds then you
may even be a Plunger. Speculators read the press clippings, check
draft position and then go for it. James is doing great and Boston
and Williams may well be great, one day. In the market these investors
live for the discovery of an Initial Public Offering. They would have
been the first to buy Martha Stewart or ebay. Initial Public Offerings
have both tremendous risk and staggering yields. Still for every Terrell
Davis there are two or three Desmond Howards. Many of these top round
picks hold out of training camp and they have never been tested in
the pro level of speed and aggressiveness. There are more, "coulda
beens" the Super Blue Chippers in NFL history. Blue-Chippers and Super
Blue Chippers is the realm of the Tight Faced Investor.
The Tight Faced Investor will draft where they feel the draft
market is most limited to insure a return on their investment. They
will stick to their charts and go Blue Chip to Super Blue Chip no
matter what new talent is in the offering. The difference between
a Blue Chip and a Super Blue Chip is a fine line. A Blue Chip player
will get their 100+ yards per game and ho hum touchdown with the occasional
great performance. In the market "Big Blue" (IBM) is a traditional
Super Blue while GM is among the regular Blue Chippers. In fantasy
term the Super Blue Chip has a great performance virtually every week.
Given the choice between Randy Moss and Chris Carter last year, the
Tight Faced Investor would have taken Chris Carter. These investors
see themselves as practical people, not risk takers. They have a distinct
strategy entering the draft and will stick to their set draft lists
no matter what comes. Cracking their code will allow you to adjust
your draft selections and beat them at their own game. The person
with the Tight Face will scoff at Speculators and look with disgust
at the Plungers. In their mind these risk takers might as well use
a dartboard for their draft selections for all of the return they
will get on their investments. Tight Faced Investors are merely amused
by Free Market Investors.
The Free Market Investor views the entire market and invests
according to trends they see in the future. They are people who shop
the free agent and trade markets looking for the player with the spotty
past, but given the right environment, the player will produce. They
are slightly different from Value Investors because they are seeking
players who have a level of risk, but may have shown virtually undetected
improvements in attitude or work ethic. At the beginning of the season
Tyrone Wheatley, Jeff George or Curt Warner could only have been taken
by a Free Market Investor. The Free Market Investor is seeking the
Bottom Feeders of the league. Players, who are having trouble, but
could have an exceptional three or four games during the season. With
a collection of these players, and the knowledge to play them at the
right time, this type of investor can have success with a minimum
of investment. Free Market Investors can reek havoc in an auction
league. All investment is risk and strategy and, perhaps, the Momentum
Investor employs one of the more interesting strategies.
A Momentum Investor is seeking a total team effort, literally.
They are not so much seeking an individual player as they are seeking
a team on the rise, or already there and then selecting the individuals
from the offense regardless of their lack of marquee value and disappointing
past. Investors like this do get burned, but many get solid performing
players with little in the way of severe peaks and valleys. These
investors, in recent years, have selected the players on the offenses
of Green Bay, San Francisco, Denver, Minnesota, New England and Seattle.
The Momentum Investor would be having a field day this year if they
had managed to gain the St. Louis offense. Some of these investors
will take every piece of the offense if they have the opportunity.
They may not play the entire offense weekly, but if the team is up
against a weak opponent you can almost guarantee they will start the
entire bunch. The portfolio of the Momentum Investor would have strong,
stable stocks in both the DOW and the NASDAQ. There are no guarantees
in the investment or fantasy world, but these could be some of the
solid investments for next season.
The lofty altitudes of the Super Blue Chippers have under gone massive
change this year due to injury or performance. It remains to be seen
if Brett Favre, Jamal Anderson or Terrell Davis can reacquaint themselves
with the thin air. For the moment they seem to have been replaced
with the likes of Marvin Harrison, Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner.
Issac Bruce seems to have made an appearance after spending a couple
of years as a Bottom Feeder and perhaps Marshal Faulk has found a
home in St. Louis. The verdict may not be unanimous on Edgerrin James,
but he, along with Eric Moulds and Stephen Davis may join the eagles
and soar to levels beyond most of the Initial Public Offerings.
Ron Dayne may be the brightest of next years Initial Public
Offerings, but his future is not certain. His value may rise because
he remained for his senior year, but the NFL is not the Big Ten. Peter
Warrick may be the best receiver in college football, but he seems
to have some problems off of the field. He has said all of the right
things to be reinstated, but what future millionaire "team" player
risks the entire season for $400 worth of clothing at huge discounts?
Investors looking for the best in Initial Public Offerings should
watch the bowl season carefully and follow Mel Keiper's draft selections.
It is a huge step from being a new comer to becoming a Blue Chip Player.
Germane Crowell may have risen to the level of the Blue
Chip Player. He has been more then a solid replacement for Herman
Moore and it remains to be seen if Moore can attain the level of Blue
Chip after the last few seasons. Randy Moss is a tough call. Some
investors rate him as a Super Blue Chipper, but this year he seems
to have been over shadowed by Chris Carter. No matter the category,
Randy Moss is an excellent player to have on your roster. JJ Johnson
appears to have taken the step to Blue Chip as has Jon Kitna and,
perhaps Ricky Williams. Those that have dropped to the level of Blue
Chip may include Brett Favre, Antonio Freeman and Emmitt Smith. Others
that have re-entered the Blue Chip realm include Eric Rhett, Ed McCaffery
and Jeff George. (If George has finally grown up. The jury is out
on this one.) These players could one day rise to the level of Super
Blue, but they may not be worth a first round selection. Bottom Feeders
never deserve a first round pick.
Among the successful Bottom Feeders, who may move to Blue Chip are
Charlie Garner, Duce Staley and Doug Flutie. They have proven
themselves over the season and appear poised to make the next move
up. Terrill Owens seems to have moved to this level, but the move
may not have been of his own making. San Francisco needs to have a
quarterback and new blood could improve his stock. With the right
QB Jacques Green could be an outstanding receiver, but he is not going
to get there with Trent Dilfer. On the other hand, Trent Dilfer could
be the ultimate Bottom Feeder quarterback. Sometimes getting benched
and then injured will help a player grow. It did not hurt Vinny Testaverde
and, with his injury this year, Vinny could become the Hot New Issue
once again next season.
Hot New Issues are tough to call, but interesting to watch. Greg Hill
has had some flashes of stardom, but seems a little insecure about
the system and his place in it. If he is not looking over his shoulder,
and survives the year, he could be "Bottom Feeder of the New Millennium".
Terrance Wilkins of the Colts may not be a bad pick up as a
third or fourth receiver on your depth chart and Cory Bradford appears
to be getting his share of catches in the Packer Offense. Other individual
players are developing and so are some teams. This makes the Momentum
Investor smile.
The Rams have to be the surprise team of the season. The likes of
Kurt Warner, Issac Bruce and Marshal Faulk are great selections for
any team. They are all running hot and show no signs of age. The
Colts are another Momentum Investor dream. Peyton Manning has
come into his own and, after years as a Hot New Issue, Marvin Harrison
has stood the league on its ear. Edgerrin James is young and tough,
but constant playing on astro turf can wear a running back out. The
Barry Sanders of the world don't come around every day, so you might
as well take them when they are young and healthy. Seattle appears
to have some momentum as a team and they are under their first year
with Mike Holmgren. The continued growth of Kitna and the possible
return of Galloway next year make them very attractive. To be on top
of things they better begin to search for a future replacement for
Ricky Wattars. Depending on the stability of Jeff George, the Vikings
could be an offense machine on into next season. The 49ers, Packers
and Patriots seem to have dropped in their level of consistent returns,
but only two on the investment next season. Still, no matter how much
you study, what investment strategy you use or how many Super Blue
Chippers may be in your arsenal, no one is exempt from a, Black Sunday."
In the first few weeks of this season we saw Jamal Anderson, Vinny
Testaverde, Terrell Davis, Shannon Sharpe, and Steve Young go down
for the season or perhaps their careers. Injuries are a part of the
business as are aging and coaching changes. These are all factors,
which have to be considered when drafting players, but the risk is
half of the fun. What can give you the edge in your league is research
and the knowledge to plan ahead. Give yourself a dose of conviction
to know the path you have chosen is correct, and the season could
be yours. To thyne own self be true, but get the edge on everyone
else and recognize their draft strategies. Keep your strategies close,
but your opponent's strategies even closer.
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