Granted, some of the experts out there are pretty good at what they do, but others are accurate at a level of 50% according to FFToday staff writer D.J. Nestrick. This puts them in the same statistical accuracy as a coin toss. It also means people using attractive models are predicting performance at the same level of the traditional opening of a football game. Thankfully FFToday is working at a level of 57% accuracy second only to Yahoo and RotoWorld who are running at 62.5%. It appears no one has cornered the market on fantasy football prophet.

There are numerous reasons for this level of inaccuracy in fantasy football. Being 100% accurate is nearly impossible, but you would think experts in their fields might be in the upper 70’s or lower 80 percentiles. This is not, after all, baseball where someone hitting a high speed spinning orb 30% of the time is considered a hero worthy of many millions of dollars. It is just football and with all of the stats readily available on virtually any football web site one would think they should have an edge. Heck, there are even pay sites which boast about their accuracy to a level where people are willing to drop actual money for their advice. Still, many do a fantastic job of upholding the obvious while ignoring the potential. I count myself as among this less than elite group.

I was so excited for this fantasy season to start it was stupid. For the first time in a decade I had the first pick in the draft, naturally I selected everyone’s number one, LaDanian Tomlinson. After his performance last year, as well as the changes in the Charger organization I had a double lock winner. “Marty Ball” had been permanently abandoned. The wide-open offense of Norv Turner was going to unchain the monster within LT. I felt born again, until week three of this season.

What started out so bright was cast in shadows. My commissioner had given me the kiss of death by saying he was impressed with my receivers. Of course by week three between all five of them they had one score and almost 200 total yards. With my receiving corps near death, my season was in darkness. I found myself in second to last place. In the midst of my early season depression I received an email which would turn my season 180 degrees.

One of our owners wrote me proposing a trade; Tomlinson for Santonio Holmes and, I thought, Joseph Addai. I wrote him an email accepting the trade, then forwarded one to the commissioner. Evening brought a phone call from “The Man.”

“Are you sure you want to make this deal?” he queried.

“Yeah, is there a problem?”
“It kind of looks like you said awe screw it and took the deal without thinking.”

“That’s true, why the phone call?” I queried. Our league is pretty much a free market. It is rare for any trade to be questioned by any of us.

“Just checking,” there was the pregnant pause, “So you are going to trade LT for Adrian Peterson and Santonio Holmes?”

The silence on my end of the line was deafening. Finally I spoke up, “*&% I thought it said Joseph Addai,” Grand Canyon size pause, “I gave my word the deal is set.”

“I thought you might have made a mistake. You can back out of this if you want, it is not done yet.”

Again silence, “Naw. I gave my word. As stupid as it sounds, this season is already in the tank. I am trying to be a good sport. I’ll keep my word and go with it. I Okayed the deal, I will live with my idiocy.”

I hung up the phone feeling more depressed than I was at the start of the day. I felt moronic. I knew the rest of the league was laughing at me. They should have a great time at my expense. My misery had been reduced to entertainment. I had given up the most valuable player in virtually every fantasy league last year for a damn rookie along with a so-so receiver in a running offense with an existing number one receiver.

I plowed ahead to week four knowing I was doomed for another season; by the end of the day I was pleasantly surprised. The performance of the rookie and the so-so receiver, along with the first week Maurice Jones-Drew actually showed up, got me out of cellar. I inched towards the middle of the pack. After a few weeks I was out of the middle edging towards the top, then came this last weekend.

On paper the Vikings-Chargers game looked like a snoozer. LaDainian, accompanied by the defensive minded Chargers, against the quarterbackless, receiverless, Vikings who had the number three defense against the run. It looked like the perfect spot of LaDainian to have a terrific day. Phillip Rivers should shred the Viking defense in the air with Gates and newly acquired Chris Chambers. The big guys on the Viking defense should wear themselves out rushing the QB in vain. While the Charger “O” ate offense, the Viking offense would be a testament to the futility of “three and out” as an offensive game plan.

The Viking offense, if there really was one, struggled to find a starter at QB. Between Tavarias Jackson, Brooks Bollinger and Kelly Holcomb there had been nothing in the way of stability at the position. Their front line had not protected them. Between the injury bug and the search for actual talent, the Nordic QB corps did not strike fear into the hearts of defenses around the league.

The big money people in Vegas had made the Chargers a 7 1/2 point favorite on the road. It is their way of saying. It was the Vegas way of saying the Vikes had a snow ball’s chance in Hades of surviving this game. The “spread gods” had spoken. There was no chance the Vikings could win this game.

The talking heads and prognosticators across the league agreed. The script for the game looked like Rivers and the flying circus go crazy grinding the Vikes to pulp, then the slash and burn running attack of the Lightening Bolts takes over late in the first half and the entire second half as the hapless Purple and Gold are pounded into puppy chow. LT was rated the number one back of the week on virtually every web site while Rivers made a rare appearance in the top ten of Sportsline. The poor Nordsmen from Minnesota never had a chance; then the game started.

The first TD is scored by LT on a one yard run. Peterson matched it with his own score. Then the game begins to be turned on its’ head when Antonio Cromartie set a new NFL record with the run back of a missed field goal of 109 yards for a score. The first half ends with the Chargers in the lead 14-7 and looking sort of like how the script should go. The talking heads still felt the Bolts had the game as they had pushed around the Vikes. With Jackson at QB the Vikes had looked nothing short of terrible, it could only get worse when Merriman and crew got their collective stuff together. It did get worse.

The third quarter had Peterson getting another TD, then things exploded. Peterson went crazy. He had to do something. By the end of the game the two Viking quarterbacks (Jackson got hurt) ended the game with a combined 158 passing yards with one score to the ever-present Sidney Rice. Not only did Peterson explode, he incinerated the Chargers by gaining 296 rushing yards and scoring three times. He also had 19 yards with one reception for a total of 315 combined yards. No matter how you score in your fantasy league, this performance was off the hook.

To make this even more embarrassing for the Thunder from Down Under California was the fact they scored a mere three more points in the second half. LT was thwarted with pedestrian numbers, 77 total yards and one score while gates and Chambers combined for 69 yards. They lost by a score of 35-17.

Instead of being depressed I am the happiest man in the league. I finally have a shot at making the money this year and the last laugh could come from me. My integrity is in tact and I know some of the owners are beginning to think I am on the shrewd side. I do nothing to discourage them.

Football is not game which fits into a ready-made mold. It is what makes the game so addictive. There are 22 guys on the field playing in an atmosphere of controlled mayhem. At times it may seem as a brutal ballet, but it is one of the toughest spectator sports to make sense out of at times. The number of variables existing on any given play when almost two-dozen people are in full motion, at full speed, with aggressive intent is off the hook. It is also what makes this such an entertaining means to an exciting end.

After the performance in the Viking game, I received great performances from almost all of my players. I racked up a league record 205 points moving me three more positions up in the league. At third place over all I am not sure how long I will stay there, I will enjoy my stay at this lofty position.

Anyone who claims to have created the perfect model for computing fantasy performance is two beers short of a six pack. Football, like many runway models, is a seductive mistress whose simplistic beauty is fleeting.

The premise of football is easy. Take a ball and some big guys. Knock down as many people on the opposition side of the ball. Get fast guys who can outrun their guys being knocked down. What you have is an offensive performance which is predictable, easy to model; best of all it is logical. The problem is, just like the runway variety of models, nothing can measure the size of neither a player’s heart, nor the variables inherent with 22 guys going full speed crashing into one other. It is what makes fantasy seasons an out of control rollercoaster ride we love, or love to hate.

Following up stunning performances from last week, Santonio Holmes paled in comparison while Peterson may be looking at sometime on the bench. He is a casualty of the improving Packer defense and will likely be out at least a few weeks. Can someone show me the model to predict when a player is going be injured? A lot of love is being sent by owners all over the fantasy world to an ailing player in Minnesota.