6/15/04
As we enter the early stages of the '04 fantasy football season
many owners are piecing together their rankings and projections.
To help in the RB evaluation process, here is a study of "RB
Studs" and how they perform the following year after a heavy
workload the previous season. What percentage of these "heavy"
RBs continue to put up big numbers? LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal
Lewis, & Deuce McAllister were all big RB producers a year
ago... what can we expect from them in '04? In order to answer
these questions, lets go back in time and take a look at other
RBs with similar heavy workloads and see how they managed the
following year.
To analyze the relationship between the number of carries in a
given season and production the following season, we need some
standards. We obviously need the total number of carries for each
RB but we also need to factor in receptions. Let's make things
simple and go with the following formula... 1 carry = 1 carry
& 1 rec = .5 carry.
The rationale being receptions still account for ‘wear
and tear’ but less so than carries where a RB is often tackled
by several players, those players are often bigger, stronger as
in DLs & LBs. I did research using this formula, which will
be referred to as f/carries.
We also need to define what constitutes a "Heavy Workload"
for a RB. I tried several different numbers for this formula and
settled on 370 f/carries as the benchmark. It netted
23 RBs who reached 370 f/carries a grand total of 38 times over
past 25 years. The following are the results of data, my own conclusions,
which RBs could be affected in ‘04 and relevant annual statistics
for all RBs in study.
Games Missed for RBs coming off a 370
f/carry Season
- 20 of 38 (52.6%) RBs missed at least 1 game
- 10 of 38 (26.3%) RBs missed 1-3 games
- 10 of 38 (26.3%) RBs missed 4+ games
For comparison I looked at the top 30 FF RBs the past 10 years
and found 108 RBs who missed at least one game.
30 RBs x 10yrs = 300 RBs; 300 RBs / 108 RBs missed 1+ games = 36.0%
What it means: Data suggests that
RBs coming off a 370 season are more likely to miss time due to
injury than a typical RB in a given year... 52.6% vs. 36.0%.
f/Carries for RBs coming off a 370 f/Carry
Season
- 7 of 38 (18.4%) RBs increased in f/carries...
- Avg Increase: +17.2 f/carries
- 31 of 38 (81.6%) RBs decreased in f/carries…
- RBs who missed any games - Avg Decrease: -82.3 f/carries
- RBs who missed no games - Avg Decrease: -28.4 f/carries
- 20 of 26 (76.9%) RBs who missed no games, decreased in f/carries
the year after a 370 season.
What it means: RBs coming off
a 370 season have decreased in f/carries almost 8 out of 10 times
whether they were injured during the season or not. When doing
projections or rankings of the top tier backs, consider this data.
The difference may be nominal even if you go with conservative estimate
of -24.8 but will likely yield more accurate projections/rankings.
FF Production Of RB Following a 370 f/Carry
Season
- 7 of 38 (18.4%) RBs met or increased FF production (300 FF
pts = 2100yds/15tds)
- 5 of 38 (13.2%) RBs decreased FF production by 1-10%…
(10% decrease = 270 FF pts)
- 2 of 38 (5.1%) RBs decreased FF production by 11-20%…
(20% decrease = 240 pts)
- 10 of 38 (26.3%) RBs decreased FF production by 21-30%…
(30% decrease = 210 pts)
- 5 of 38 (13.1%) RBs decreased FF production by 31-40%…
(40% decrease = 180 pts)
- 3 of 38 (7.9%) RBs decreased FF production by 41-50%…
(50% decrease = 150 pts)
- 6 of 38 (15.8%) RBs decreased FF production by 51%+
What it means: 12 of 38 (31.6%)
met or slightly decreased (10% decrease or less) versus 24 of 38
(63.2%) RBs that decreased their ff production by 20% or more. Future
Career FF Production Of a 370 f/Carry RB
Once a RB has a heavy workload season (370 f/carries), what can
we expect from him the rest of his career? Again we'll turn to
history. In total, RBs have turned in 130 seasons following a
heavy workload year.
Note: Originally I was going
to ignore seasons with 250 carries or less to discount the seasons
at end of careers where RBs may have had limited playing time.
But, while doing research I found the number of seasons where
250 carries was not attained, to be substantial, many due to missed
games and not necessarily because the RB was at the end of his
rope.... 50 out of 130 (38.5%) seasons to be exact. So percentages
will be of 130 total seasons (50 less than 250 f/carries &
80 greater than 250 f/carries).
- 19 of 130/80 (14.6%/23.8%) RBs reached 200-249 FF pts
- 10 of 130/80 (7.7/12.5%) RBs reached 250-299 FF pts
- 4 of 130/80 (3.1/5.0%) RBs reached 300-349 FF pts
- 3 of 130/8080 (2.3/3.8%) RBs reached 350+ FF pts
- 36 of 130/80 (27.7/45.0%) RBs reached 200+ FF pts (total of
above)
What it means: Just 5.4 to 8.8%
attained 300+ FF pts after their first 370 season. Emmitt Smith
is responsible for three of those seven. And, of the ten times 250-299
points were attained, seven seasons came from three players, (Walter
Payton 3, Curtis Martin 2, Eric Dickerson 2).
Conclusions
RBs coming off 370 f/carry seasons have a lot of statistical data
working against them. But we FFers have heard similar and discouraging
data before... "5 of 10 players will fall out of top10 each
year," "‘WRs do poorly their first year with a new
team..." What’s important to note is that these statistics
deal in probabilities and are not infallible year to year.
Yes, 5 may drop out of top 10 in a given year. But next year it
may be 3... year after that 6... then 3 again. The point of such
data is not to say, "Don’t draft last year’s top
10 or a RB coming of a 370 season," but to consider the data
and be aware when drafting one of these players. Watch and note
a player’s team and individual situation and adjust draft
strategy or rankings/projections accordingly.
It’s rare to have a 370 season…even more rare for a
RB to repeat the feat: Often times no where to go but down for a
RB following a 370 season. It’s not that the RBs always come
back with bad years… just bad years in relation to expectations
and projections. You should consider that statistical history says
it’s highly unlikely for RBs coming off 370 seasons to repeat
the number of f/carries and account for that in your projections
and rankings. Just to remind you...
- 38 total ‘370’ season / 727 individual NFL seasons
(expansion accounted for) = 5.2%
- Just 6 of those 38 times (15.8%) a RB has met/exceeded f/carries
of previous 370 season
- 20 of 38(52.6%) RB’s missed any games
- 10 of 38(26.3%) RB’s missed 4+ game
- v sample of 300 RBs the last 10yrs which yielded 55 of 300
who missed games (just 36.7%)
If you draft a RB coming of a 370 season (will take a look at those
RBs below) you may want to get the back-up (handcuff) and/or draft
running back reserves early. Data history says you have 1 in 2 chance
of needing them for 1-3 games, 1 in 4 chance you will need them
for 4+ games.
We often talk about this point and the numbers below justify it....
"last year’s stats are last year’s stats,"
relevant but not last word in future performance. Do not assume
that most RBs will meet or increase their f/carries and continue
their heavy workload. Adjust your draft strategy and rankings/projections
accordingly.
- 12 of 38 (31.6%) RBs met or only slightly decreased their
FF production vs. 24 of 38 (63.2%) RBs that had a decrease of
20% or more.
"Not wanting to miss out on a big year" shouldn’t
be your rationale for ignoring the data and picking one of these
guys… big year’s (300+ FF pts) following a heavy workload
season haven’t happened that often (7) and 3 of them were
done by the NFL’s all time leading rusher and most prolific
FF player. Yes, you could’ve missed out on LaDainian Tomlinson
last year or Edgerrin James ('02), Terrell Davis ('98)
a couple years back, but you may have avoided Terrell Davis and
Edgerrin James' injury-plagued seasons or Ricky Willams & Eddie
George's down seasons. A number of RBs have had good FF years (200+pts)
after their 1st 370 season but that’s a level of production
one could find from several other RBs.
Who
Are We Talking About In ‘04?
Ricky Williams: 392 carries/50recs
= 417 f/carries ‘03
Only one 370 RB has ever continued that workload 3 consecutive
years. Erick Dickerson, James Wilder, Emmitt Smith, Edgerrin James,
Terrell Davis all did it 2 consecutive years and then all missed
time due to injury... 2, 4, 2, 10,12 games respectively. Only
Earl Campbell kept it going three years in a row, but it should
be pointed out that his fantasy production dropped almost 23%
(22.9 to be exact). Williams currently has
a total of 1704 f/carries for his career. In the past, only 2
of 5 RBs with similar f/carries met or slightly decreased in FF
production the following season; Curtis Martin ('00) and Emmitt
Smith ('95). The three who didn’t include Walter Payton
('80), Jerome Bettis ('98), & Terrell Davis ('99). Which group
of backs does Ricky's running style most resemble? Also consider
his drop in yards-per-carry last year (-1.3 yds) and he could
fall out of the Top 10 on that alone. I’m not touching Williams
this year.
Jamal Lewis: 387 carries/26recs = 400
f/carries ‘03
Attaining 400 f/carries last year does not
bode well for Lewis this season. Only 3 of 17 times (17.6%) has
a RB coming off a 400 f/carry season met or only slightly decreased
in FF production... Edgerrin James ('00), LaDainian Tomlinson
('03), Walter Payton ('85). Some dropped as much as 20+% including
Ricky Williams ('03), Eddie George ('01), Jamal Anderson ('99),
& Terrell Davis ('99). I’d be very cautious with Lewis
in '04… if you draft him be sure to get his back-up or consider
picking up reserve RBs early.
Ahman Green: 355 carries/50recs
= 380 f/carries ’03
Many who had there first 370 season at a similar stage in their
career (1453f/carries) did not bounce back well. Names include
Marcus Allen ('86), Ricky Watters
('97), and Ricky Williams ('03).
From an FF standpoint, I believe Green truly topped out last year
and will project fewer f/carries for him in '04. I see a 20% decrease
in production (still top 5-7) which seems to be a common value
in most projections I've seen to date.
Deuce McAllister: 351 carries/69recs
= 386 f/carries ‘03
At 759 f/carries, McAllister has the lowest f/carries of this
’03 group and enters his 3rd year as a starter. Of the 12
times a RB coming of a 370 f/carry season, has come back to meet
or only slightly decrease in FF production, 7 of those times (58.3%)
it happened to a RB in his first three years as a starter. Based
on this info, he's got the best chance of this group to attain
another 370 f/carry season. If he does reach 370 again you can
expect a huge year... currently my #2 fantasy RB.
LaDainian Tomlinson: 313 carries/100recs
= 369 f/carries ‘03
(Not 370 mind you, but close enough to mention)
This is a tough one. Only Marshall Faulk* has had 3 consecutive
seasons with 300+ fantasy pts… that’s of all RBs.
Emmitt Smith did it 2 consecutive seasons; Priest Holmes* and
Tomlinson are at two going into ‘04. Tomlinson, Faulk, and
Holmes are similar RBs used in similar ways but just 1 of 6 (16.7%,
Curtis Martin) RBs who were going into their 3rd consecutive 370
season met or slightly decreased in fantasy production…
the other 5 had an average drop of 43.3%. Wow. Statistical history
isn’t encouraging. I do see Tomlinson reaching 300+ FF pts
again, but given these numbers, I’ll error on the side of
caution and say a 10% decrease in production putting him at the
#3 or #4 fantasy RB.
Fred Taylor: 345 carries/48recs = 369 f/carries ‘03
(Again, not 370 but close enough to mention)
I'm surprised to see Taylor’s 345 carries, good for top
5 in ‘03. At 1467 f/carries, Taylor is in company with Ricky
Williams and Ahman Green. I also see him reducing his workload
(likely for his benefit) and would strongly consider grabbing
a productive/reliable reserve RB early, despite his recent stretch
of health.
*Marshall Faulk & Priest Holmes never attained 370 seasons…their
f/carry highs: Holmes 358 ('01),
Faulk 367 ('98)
Numbers Used in the Study Walter
Payton
| 1979 chi | 16 | 369 1610 4.4 14 | 31 313 10.1 2 |
| 1980 chi | 16 | 317 1460 4.6 6 | 46 367 8.0 1 |
| 1984 chi | 16 | 381 1684 4.4 11 | 45 368 8.2 0 |
| 1985 chi | 16 | 324 1551 4.8 9 | 49 483 9.9 2 |
Earl Campbell
| 1979 hou | 16 | 368 1697 4.6 19 | 16 94 5.9 0 |
| 1980 hou | 15 | 373 1934 5.2 13 | 11 47 4.3 0 |
| 1981 hou | 16 | 361 1376 3.8 10 | 36 156 4.3 0 |
| 1982 hou | 9 | 157 538 3.4 2 | 18 130 7.2 0 |
George Rogers
| 1981 nor | 15 | 378 1674 4.4 13 | 16 126 7.9 0 |
| 1982 nor | 6 | 122 535 4.4 3 | 4 21 5.2 0 |
Eric Dickerson
| 1983 ram | 16 | 390 1808 4.6 18 | 51 404 7.9 2 |
| 1984 ram | 16 | 379 2105 5.6 14 | 21 139 6.6 0 |
| 1985 ram | 14 | 292 1234 4.2 12 | 20 126 6.3 0 |
| 1986 ram | 16 | 404 1821 4.5 11 | 26 205 7.9 0 |
| 1987 ind | 9 | 223 1011 4.5 5 | 13 133 10.2 0 |
| 1987 ram | 3 | 60 277 4.6 1 | 5 38 7.6 0 |
John Riggins
| 1983 was | 15 | 375 1347 3.6 24 | 5 29 5.8 0 |
| 1984 was | 14 | 327 1239 3.8 14 | 7 43 6.1 0 |
James Wilder
| 1984 tam | 16 | 407 1544 3.8 13 | 85 685 8.1 0 |
| 1985 tam | 16 | 365 1300 3.6 10 | 53 341 6.4 0 |
| 1986 tam | 12 | 190 704 3.7 2 | 43 326 7.6 1 |
Gerald Riggs
| 1985 atl | 16 | 397 1719 4.3 10 | 33 267 8.1 0 |
| 1986 atl | 16 | 343 1327 3.9 9 | 24 136 5.7 0 |
Marcus Allen
| 1985 rai | 16 | 380 1759 4.6 11 | 67 555 8.3 3 |
| 1986 rai | 13 | 208 759 3.6 5 | 46 453 9.8 2 |
Herschel Walker
| 1988 dal | 16 | 361 1514 4.2 5 | 53 505 9.5 2 |
| 1989 dal | 5 | 81 246 3.0 2 | 22 261 11.9 1 |
Christian Okoye
| 1989 kan | 15 | 370 1480 4.0 12 | 2 12 6.0 0 |
| 1990 kan | 14 | 245 805 3.3 7 | 4 23 5.8 0 |
Emmitt Smith
| 1991 dal | 16 | 365 1563 4.3 12 | 49 258 5.3 1 |
| 1992 dal | 16 | 373 1713 4.6 18 | 59 335 5.7 1 |
| 1993 dal | 14 | 283 1486 5.3 9 | 57 414 7.3 1 |
| 1994 dal | 15 | 368 1484 4.0 21 | 50 341 6.8 1 |
| 1995 dal | 16 | 377 1773 4.7 25 | 62 375 6.0 0 |
| 1996 dal | 15 | 327 1204 3.7 12 | 47 249 5.3 3 |
Barry Foster
| 1992 pit | 16 | 390 1690 4.3 11 | 36 344 9.6 0 |
| 1993 pit | 9 | 177 711 4.0 8 | 27 217 8.0 1 |
Thurman Thomas
| 1993 buf | 16 | 355 1315 3.7 6 | 48 387 8.1 0 |
| 1994 buf | 15 | 287 1093 3.8 7 | 50 349 7.0 2 |
Curtis Martin
| 1995 ne | 16 | 368 1487 4.0 14 | 30 261 8.7 1 |
| 1996 ne | 16 | 316 1152 3.6 14 | 46 333 7.2 3 |
| 1998 nyj | 15 | 369 1287 3.5 8 | 43 365 8.5 1 |
| 1999 nyj | 16 | 367 1464 4.0 5 | 45 259 5.8 0 |
| 2000 nyj | 16 | 316 1204 3.8 9 | 69 505 7.3 2 |
Ricky Watters
| 1996 phi | 16 | 353 1411 4.0 13 | 51 444 8.7 0 |
| 1997 phi | 16 | 285 1110 3.9 7 | 48 440 9.2 0 |
Jerome Bettis
| 1997 pit | 15 | 375 1665 4.4 7 | 15 110 7.3 2 |
| 1998 pit | 15 | 316 1185 3.8 3 | 16 90 5.6 0 |
Terrell Davis
| 1997 den | 15 | 369 1750 4.7 15 | 42 287 6.8 0 |
| 1998 den | 16 | 392 2008 5.1 21 | 25 217 8.7 2 |
| 1999 den | 4 | 67 211 3.1 2 | 3 26 8.7 0 |
Jamal Anderson
| 1998 atl | 16 | 410 1846 4.5 14 | 27 319 11.8 2 |
| 1999 atl | 2 | 19 59 3.1 0 | 2 34 17.0 0 |
Edgerrin James
| 1999 ind | 16 | 369 1553 4.2 13 | 62 586 9.5 4 |
| 2000 ind | 16 | 387 1709 4.4 13 | 63 594 9.4 5 |
| 2001 ind | 6 | 151 662 4.4 3 | 24 193 8.0 0 |
Eddie George
| 2000 ten | 16 | 403 1509 3.7 14 | 50 453 9.1 2 |
| 2001 ten | 16 | 315 939 3.0 5 | 37 279 7.5 0 |
Stephen Davis
| 2001 was | 16 | 356 1432 4.0 5 | 28 205 7.3 0 |
| 2002 was | 12 | 207 820 4.0 7 | 23 142 6.2 1 |
Ricky Williams
| 2002 mia | 16 | 383 1853 4.8 16 | 47 363 7.7 1 |
| 2003 mia | 16 | 392 1372 3.5 9 | 50 351 7.0 1 |
Ladainian Tomlinson
| 2002 sdg | 16 | 372 1683 4.5 14 | 79 489 6.2 1 |
| 2003 sdg | 16 | 313 1645 5.3 13 | 100 725 7.2 4 |
|
