Editor's Note:
ADP based on 12-team non-PPR scoring system.
The word “value” gets thrown around plenty during
fantasy drafts, and for good reason. Acquiring key contributors
in the right round without reaching for need can make or break
fantasy owners. That’s why mock drafts are important –
to help owners get an idea of which rounds a player might go in.
But during these busy summer months, not everyone has the time
for that, so we’re going to give you a position-by-position
breakdown of overvalued and undervalued players based on their
Average Draft Position (ADP).
An offseason focused on becoming a more
complete TE may allow Ertz to see the field more in 2015.
The Case For Ertz Being Undervalued:
He’s an ascending player who operates in a Chip Kelly offense.
The Case Against Ertz Being Undervalued:
Brent Celek still gets plenty of snaps, making Ertz a part-time
player.
Verdict: Ertz had moderate numbers
last season, with 58 receptions for 702 yards and three touchdowns.
Those are decent numbers, but hardly mind-blowing. The Stanford
product will be entering just his third season, so he’s clearly
trending up. He's been focused on improving his blocking skills
in hopes to increase his snap count this season. The Eagles also
lost their top receiver in Jeremy Maclin, and some of those targets
will have to be distributed, with Ertz being one of the likely beneficiaries.
The Case For Gates Being Undervalued:
He was second among tight ends in scoring last season and has never
failed to produce.
The Case Against Gates Being Undervalued:
A four-game suspension looms for the future Hall of Famer, and at
age 35 he is nearing the end of his career.
Verdict: Gates surprised many last season by ranking behind only
Rob Gronkowski in fantasy scoring at his position with 69 catches
for 821 yards and 12 touchdowns. With the suspension and an inevitable
decline due to age, it is improbable to expect the same kind of
numbers this season, but Gates is worth more than a late 13th-round
pick. He won’t be among the top-five scorers at his position, but
on average he’s the 16th tight end drafted, and it is hard to believe
he’ll wind up outside the top-15 in scoring.
The Case For Fleener Being Undervalued:
Just five tight ends had more fantasy points than Fleener last year,
and his quarterback is a guy named Andrew Luck.
The Case Against Fleener Being Undervalued:
He was too inconsistent last season, and fellow Colts tight end
Dwayne Allen offers serious competition.
Verdict: Fleener amassed 774 receiving yards and eight touchdowns
last season on 51 catches while being targeted 92 times, totals
good enough to qualify him for TE1 status, yet there are 17 tight
ends being picked ahead of him on average. Clearly, the presence
of a healthy Allen will impede Fleener’s numbers to a degree. But
Fleener still plays with Andrew Luck in an offense that may struggle
to move the ball on the ground. Even if Fleener’s stats dip, it
won’t be enough to justify taking the likes of Vernon Davis ahead
of him.
The Case For Thomas Being Overvalued:
His quarterback had been Peyton Manning. It is now Blake Bortles.
The Case Against Thomas Being Overvalued:
He’s an excellent athlete who should see increased targets due to
the mediocrity of the Jags’ receiving corps.
Verdict: Thomas was a touchdown machine through the first five games
of last year, with nine scores on 24 receptions during that time
span. He wound up with 12 scores on 43 receptions (60 targets),
a rate that wasn’t going to be sustainable in Denver, let
alone Jacksonville. As mentioned, Thomas has some things going for
him, but it’s impossible to ignore the fact that he’s
done zero without Peyton Manning throwing to him. Thomas could have
a decent season, but there are better options available for fantasy
owners in the middle rounds of their drafts.
The Case For Cameron Being Overvalued:
He has a history of concussions, and only one decent season to his
name.
The Case Against Cameron Being Overvalued:
There’s upside aplenty if he can stay healthy, and he should get
plenty of opportunities with Miami having so many unproven receivers.
Verdict: Cameron played just 10 games last season and provided his
fantasy owners only 424 yards and two scores on 24 catches. Granted,
the quarterback play in Cleveland left a lot to be desired, but
those numbers were still a big drop from the previous year. Cameron
can certainly be useful to fantasy owners, but it would be useful
for anyone drafting him to keep his concussion issues in mind, not
to mention the fact that in his three seasons outside of 2013, he
has a total of 50 catches for 683 yards and three touchdowns.
The Case For Davis Being Overvalued:
He plays in a run-heavy offense. Oh, and he also had fewer than
250 receiving yards last year.
The Case Against Davis Being Overvalued:
He was very good just two seasons ago, with 13 touchdowns and 850
receiving yards.
Verdict: Davis has long been a fantasy darling, due mostly to his
(deserved) reputation as a freakish athlete and the 2009-2010 campaigns
in which he totaled 20 touchdowns and nearly 2,000 receiving yards.
But the fact is, Davis has amassed less than 600 receiving yards
and five or fewer scores in five of his nine seasons. Last season
was the worst of his career, as he failed to score after Week 1,
and had only 14 fantasy points the rest of the year. At 31 years
old and in an offense that will do everything in its power to run
the ball, Davis represents a lot of risk and seemingly little reward
compared to some of the tight ends being taken after him like Antonio
Gates and Colby Fleener.
