There were six teams that had more running plays than passing plays in 2012, which is double the number from 2011. Will that trend continue in 2013? Let’s take a look at what this collective information could mean for 2013.

1. Option quarterbacks will go early: Three of the six teams (Seattle, San Francisco, Washington) that had more running plays than passing plays last season utilized option-style quarterbacks. Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III each ran for more than 400 yards with at least four touchdowns. With rushing scores being more valuable than passing scores, it behooves fantasy owners to snag a running QB. Cam Newton has proven his worth this way in the past couple of seasons, and even Andrew Luck ran for five touchdowns last year. But fantasy owners should be wary of reaching for the new-school quarterbacks—we aren’t sure how quickly defenses will adapt, and the risk of injury is, obviously, much higher.
   
   
2. The coaching carousel will have a strong effect on teams' run-to-pass ratio: There have been eight head coaching changes in the NFL this season, and a whopping 13 teams have different offensive coordinators than last year. In Arizona, new head coach Bruce Arians should help Carson Palmer stay relevant while renewing Larry Fitzgerald’s fantasy status because, as his run/pass numbers from last year with the Colts suggest, his offenses will throw the ball. Jacksonville hired former Seattle defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, and that means there’s little doubt the Jags will throw the ball far less than 62 percent of the time, which is what they did last season. Under Mike McCoy, the Chargers should see an uptick in running plays, while in Kansas City, it’s hard to believe Andy Reid will do anything but drastically increase the percentage of that team’s passing plays.
   
   
3. Rookie running backs will have more of an impact than one might think: Though there are almost always impact rookie running backs, this year’s draft was a bit different in that not one back went in the first round. It’s easy to think that may mean a lack of impact rookie runners, but don’t be misled—we will continue to see first-year backs be effective in fantasy. Denver ran the ball nearly 45 percent of the time last season, and that was with a mediocre stable of backs. Montee Ball should take a large percentage of those carries this season, and his nose for the end zone makes him highly valuable. Le’Veon Bell takes over for a Steelers squad that should run more than 41 percent of the time, Eddie Lacy will get goal-line carries in Green Bay, and don’t overlook Joseph Randle in Dallas, who is behind the oft-injured DeMarco Murray and on a team that figures to put more emphasis on their running game this year.
   
   
4. Success of free agents will depend on team as much as talent: A number of high-profile and productive players changed squads through free agency, and the teams they went to will impact how much fantasy owners can get out of them this season. Steven Jackson landed in Atlanta, and even though he remains productive for a long-time veteran back, the Falcons are a throwing team, having chucked it almost 62 percent of the time last year. Greg Jennings headed to Minnesota, and he should see a downturn in his production on a team that runs the ball so often. The opposite should be true for Danny Amendola, who is the perfect replacement for Wes Welker in New England and who should come close to the 100-catch mark if he stays healthy.