Number one on the list is opportunity. Whether it's on his same team due to improved performance or an injury to a player ahead of him on the depth chart, opportunity is the easiest way to have expectations increase dramatically.

Changing teams, whether through trade or free agency, can open up opportunities too.

Additionally, the team around a receiver can change. Improved performance from the starting quarterback or a change under center can be a factor. Better quarterback play can offer better-quality targets. Similarly, new offensive coordinators may change which skill player will star in a given season.

I saved my wide receiver rankings from August 2025 to compare how values changed in just 12 months.

Let's see if the drastic increases and decreases are warranted or a mirage waiting to destroy your fantasy roster.

Positive Variance / Rising Expectations

Parker Washington, JAX

Washington has made the largest jump up the charts of any wide receiver -- 96.2 spots. His outlook actually began to change late last season after he averaged 18.6 FPts/G over the final three regular-season games and exploded in front of a national audience when he went 7-107-1 for 20.4 fantasy points against Buffalo in the first round of the playoffs.

His expected value for 2026 increased further after it appeared the Jags would have Travis Hunter concentrate on cornerback and fill in on offense when needed. But has the noise gone too far?

The team still has Brian Thomas Jr., who likely has the most talent of any Jacksonville receiver, underrated Jakobi Meyers and a young tight end in Brenton Strange. There are other receivers going around the same time with proven production, like DK Metcalf and Courtland Sutton.

I think I even prefer Thomas Jr. a round later with a higher upside. See below.

Christian Watson, GB

Watson has been and will continue to be one of my favorites this draft season. His jump from nowhere to the 30th wideout off the board is for multiple reasons.

He was injured at the start of last season. Also, two of the wideouts ahead of him entering last season are gone -- Romeo Doubs to New England and Dontayvion Wicks to Philadelphia. Instead of fighting with three quality receivers for targets, it's now just Watson, Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden.

Watson appears to be healthy, and with tight end Tucker Kraft likely to be slowly eased back into a full workload, Watson has a huge opportunity to finally show his stuff.

His ADP of 75 (eighth round) is a steal in my eyes.

Michael Wilson, ARI

In 2025, another out-of-nowhere wideout who helped many fantasy owners was Wilson. The opening left by a poor-performing Marvin Harrison Jr. was ably filled by Wilson (78-1006-7).

He'll have the same quarterback throwing to him, and until MHJ proves his first two seasons were just a learning experience, the Cardinals passing offense will go through tight end Trey McBride and Wilson.

I'm certainly willing to grab him at his current ADP of 82.3.

Jalen Coker, CAR

Coker came on late for the Panthers, recording four touchdowns and 378 receiving yards from Week 13 through the Wild Card game. His “arrival” took pressure off Tetairoa McMillan and quarterback Bryce Young to force the ball to their rookie first-round receiver.

From Week 13 through the playoffs, Young threw nine touchdown passes against just three interceptions.

Coker is getting no respect as the 56th wideout off the board, which means he may or may not get drafted depending on roster size. He produced four games of 16 fantasy points or more over the final six Panthers games, so he's certainly worth a 15th- or 16th-round choice.

DeVonta Smith, PHI

As a loyal Eagles fan, I still must admit I'm not sold on DeVonta Smith as a No. 1 receiver. He was a great receiver at Alabama, but he's never been a true No. 1 in the NFL.

He's added more concern by not getting reps at training camp in the new Sean Mannion offense while being sidelined by a hamstring injury. I would not be surprised by a slow start for Smith and the entire Eagles passing game.

Be careful assuming he'll give you elite A.J. Brown numbers. I'd much rather have George Pickens (WR12), Garrett Wilson (WR15) or, if you see Malik Nabers is a healthy go, absolutely go there (WR16).

Alec Pierce, IND

The good news is the Colts gave Pierce a big contract worthy of a No. 1 receiver and traded former No. 1 Michael Pittman Jr. to Pittsburgh.

On the other side of the ledger, Pierce had offseason ankle surgery, and we haven't seen much of him in training camp. This week, the team signed one of my all-time favorite wideouts, Keenan Allen.

Pierce's career has been built as a deep threat, and we don't know if he can be a No. 1 guy. At this point, he has huge upside but also could be a huge bust.

Still, at a ninth-round ADP, he might be worth the gamble.

Chris Olave, NO

Last year at this time, there were rumors Olave might retire due to multiple concussions. Instead, he ended up playing 16 games and producing 1,163 yards and nine touchdowns.

Still, a mainly unproven quarterback in Tyler Shough and management selecting wideout Jordan Tyson in the first round left me concerned for 2026. This week's injury, which will likely have Tyson sidelined for two months, takes one of those concerns away and leaves little competition for targets early in the season.

Still, if I have a choice between Nico Collins (WR9), Olave (WR10) and A.J. Brown (WR11), I'm likely to pick Olave third in that trio.

Negative Variance / Falling Expectations

Tyreek Hill, FA

He's a free agent at this time, coming off a knee injury and dealing with off-the-field issues. It's no surprise he's gone from a top-12 wideout in 2025 to WR74.

If I could get him in the final round while everyone around me is selecting their kickers, he'd be worth the gamble, particularly if he somehow returns to Kansas City.

Anything before that is likely not worth the gamble.

Calvin Ridley, TEN

In 2025, he was supposed to be the veteran leader to help then-rookie quarterback Cam Ward through his first season. He ended up playing seven games and producing a 17-303-0 line.

In the offseason, the team brought in target hog Wan'Dale Robinson and used the No. 4 overall pick on Ohio State wideout Carnell Tate. It's no wonder expectations for Ridley are in the tank for 2026.

He might even end up No. 5 on the depth chart behind the two young guys, Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike.

I'd rather take the shot with the aforementioned Hill.

Brian Thomas Jr., JAX

Thomas Jr. disappointed fantasy owners in 2025 (48-707-2) as an expected top-10 wide receiver, but at this level of expectations (WR33), he could be a value.

As the third Jaguars receiver off the board, he's not much of a gamble at an ADP of 80.7, with potentially significant upside.

Xavier Worthy, KC

Worthy showed a lot of talent and production at the end of his rookie season in 2024, but 2025 was a complete disaster (42-532-1).

The Chiefs receiving corps is a mess with Rashee Rice and Worthy, which might explain why they're looking at Hill to bolster the room.

Media and fantasy expectations are currently low, and he might not be a bad late-round selection. We are talking about Round 14, so we aren't talking about expensive draft capital. There's decent upside if Patrick Mahomes returns to form and Rice isn't cooperative on and off the field.

Marvin Harrison Jr., ARI

Are you a true believer in the third-year wide receiver theory? I am not.

Harrison Jr. was supposed to be a sure-fire Hall of Fame receiver like his father, but it's been rough going through two seasons. I'm not completely sold on his quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, and he's currently the third option behind Wilson and McBride.

On the other hand, expectations are for him to be a WR3, and at that price (eighth round), it's almost worth it.

Almost.