When and how you should proceed is a matter of statistical analysis. We have accurate projections on this site and current ADP. When we compare the two, we should have a great strategy of when to choose our next receivers.

For example: Why would I want to draft CeeDee Lamb with the 12th overall pick and get 252.7 points of production when I could use that selection for another position and still get nearly equal production from Rashee Rice (249.7) or Chris Olave (247.0) with my pick at the end of the third round? Is the three-to-five points over 17 games worth ending up with a much worse RB or TE? In the above example, it's the difference between your No.1 back being James Cook versus Breece Hall or Javonte Williams. While I actually like Williams this season, the difference between Cook and Williams is expected to be 38.9 fantasy points. So… based on FFToday projections the combination of Olave and Cook is about 33 points better than the combo of Lamb and Williams (522.2 vs. 489.0).

Drafting Lamb at No.12 seems counterproductive to winning a championship.

So let's find a few more bargains to draft and other wideouts to avoid at their current ADP.

Bargains

1) Garrett Wilson, NYJ – ADP 41.5

Garrett Wilson was a 1,000-yard receiver for three consecutive seasons before injury knocked him out for nine games last year. That's with a quarterback resume of: Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, Brady Cook, a 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers, Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, Tim Boyle, a 37-year-old Joe Flacco, and Mike White. This season begins with Geno Smith working his second tour in New York. While he's not primetime “ARod” he's likely the best passer he's seen in a while. People with short memories will only remember last year's debacle, but smart fantasy owners will see the possibility of 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns. His ADP is a round-and-a half lower than comparative wide receiver production like A.J. Brown and Chris Olave.

2) Zay Flowers, BAL – ADP 42.5

Zay Flowers ADP is similar to Wilson as is his expected production. His only real wide receiver competition for targets is Rashod Bateman and a couple of rookies. Meanwhile, with Isaiah Likely gone to Broadway, Flowers might actually see a few more touchdown passes. What I said about Wilson pertains to Flowers as well, except his quarterback is better.

3) Jameson Williams, DET – ADP 59

When the Lions want to stretch a defense, there is only one true option – Jameson Williams. He's averaged over 17 yards-per-reception for two consecutive seasons and seven touchdowns in each. It's true that Detroit has a multitude of weapons (Jahmyr Gibbs, ARSB, Sam LaPorta and Isaac TeSlaa), but Williams is a game-changer. He's set personal records for targets, receptions and yards in each of the past three seasons. I don't think the progression has hit its peak. You can get Williams for the same price as Jaylen Waddle, but production like Tetairoa McMillan (ADP 38.5) or George Pickens (26.5).

4) Christian Watson, GB – ADP 77.5

In four seasons, I have never been a Christian Watson fan or drafted him. But for 2026, I am ready to come to his side. He finished strong last season after missing the first seven weeks (35-611-6). Both Romeo Doubs (New England) and Dontayvion Wicks (Philadelphia) are gone leaving 131 targets, 1,000 receiving yards and eight touchdowns available. Tucker Kraft is coming off an ACL injury in Week 9 and may not be ready for a full workload to start the season. This is the best opportunity for Watson to show his talents. He just needs to get/stay healthy. Would you rather have Watson or disappointing Marvin Harrison Jr. who is being drafted at the same time? I'm loading up on shares of Watson in 2026.

5) Khalil Shakir, BUF – ADP 146

Khalil Shakir proved last season he couldn't be a team's No.1 receiver. If I could see it, so could Bills management. They went out and got D.J. Moore and the situation for Shakir is perfect. Moore sees the opponent's best cornerback and Shakir gets more room to roam. Moore's presence may take a few targets, but they should be more productive opportunities. Getting Shakir in the 15th-round, around the likes of Rasheed Shaheed and Jalen Coker is a bargain as we think he produces like a ninth- or 10th-rounder.

Flops

1) George Pickens, DAL – ADP 26.5

We can all recite George Pickens' 2025 production, but he produce much of it in the four games when CeeDee Lamb was sidelined, averaging 24.2 FPts/G. In the remaining 13 games he averaged just 14.9 FPts/G. Fantasy owners are remembering the “good times” but not being objective. Dak Prescott still looks at Lamb before Pickens. I might be too hard on him calling him a “flop”, he's just not going to reproduce 2025 and fantasy owners are drafting him as if he will. He's currently the 10th wideout off the board and we have him finishing 15th in fantasy points.

2) Malik Nabers, NYG – ADP 33.5

Nabers produced an excellent top-10 worthy rookie season (109-1,204-7) in 2024 and was prepared to improve in 2025 until an ACL injury. He'll be playing under a new head coach (who believes in run-first), with a new quarterback and a new wide receiver room including: Calvin Austin, Darnell Mooney, JuJu Smith-Schuster and even Odell Beckham Jr. If Nabers is healthy in Week 1, I would dismiss all the other issues, but I think a slow start off the injury is more likely as he might not be ready for a full workload. He's going at the same time as DeVonta Smith (ADP 33.5), but our expectations after a slow start is he produces about a point-a-game less.

4) Tee Higgins, CIN – ADP 47

Tee Higgins has always been the first No.2 receiver off the board, though that “honor” goes to Pickens in 2026. Even as a fifth-round selection, I think it's a bit too high. We have him producing the 26th-most fantasy points at wideout but he has been the 16th wideout off the board. You can get Davante Adams or Jameson Williams a round later and produce more points.

5) Brian Thomas Jr., JAC – ADP 79

It's interesting that as quarterback Trevor Lawrence has come into his own under center, Brian Thomas Jr. took a step backward. While his yards-per-catch stayed the same as in his breakout rookie season, his touchdown total took a deep and significant hit from 10-to-two. In the meantime, both Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers (traded from Las Vegas mid-season) showed up in his absence. Their production even sent Travis Hunter to a mostly defensive strategy for 2026. Some of the short touchdowns “BTJ” used to get became Lawrence rushing touchdowns in 2025. At his ADP I'd much rather have the previously mentioned Watson (77.5) or Courtland Sutton (ADP 79) or Alec Pierce (ADP 80).

6) Makai Lemon, PHI – ADP 104

Makai Lemon has big shoes to fill and big expectation from fans who usually have little patience (this writer included). He's the main addition to the wide receiver room to fill A.J. Brown's shoes. The Eagles traded up and ahead of Pittsburgh to get the USC wideout. For that reason he's going in the 11th round, despite our expectations that has his value in the ADP 150 range. Our expectation is he produces like Bateman or Jayden Higgins. That could all change if Jalen Hurts blossoms under the new Sean Mannion system, but it might be too much to expect from a rookie at this time. Even if he plays above expectations, he likely won't be of much help in the fantasy playoffs as his Week 15 and Week 16 opponents are Seattle and Houston, respectively.