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Truths and Lies - Week 4



By Steve Schwarz | 9/30/26

In Week 3, running backs took a beating which means waiver claims will be a popular place for the next few days. De'Von Achane, Travis Etienne (maybe he shouldn't have changed his last name pronunciation) and Breece Hall will all miss varying amounts of time. Wide receivers also weren't immune to injuries with Justin Jefferson, Jalen Coker and Jalen McMillan also going down. Not to add insult to injury, but bye weeks are just around the corner (start in Week 5).

Truths

“The first step toward wisdom is silence. The second is listening.” - Solomon Ibn Gabirol

1) I may be a bit slow, but I've finally come around to believing in Bears wideout Kalif Raymond.

True. He's getting consistent targets over the first three games and he's producing better than Rome Odunze (who dropped an easy touchdown pass Monday night) and as good as Luther Burden III. Ben Johnson's confidence level seems to be Burden and Raymond first and Odunze a tier lower. We also saw an improved Colston Loveland meaning Odunze may end up being the Bears' fourth option.

2) If you just include Josh Allen's running and not his passing, he'd be averaging 15.8 FPts/G.

Fact. Among quarterbacks he's first in rushing attempts (28), second in rushing yards (114) and by far first in rushing touchdowns (6) with the nearest competitor at two rushing touchdowns (Cam Ward and Caleb Williams). Allen is ninth in passing yards and 12th in passing touchdowns, yet leads all quarterbacks with a 35.6 FPts/G average.

3) Those who expected Fernando Mendoza to quickly replace Kirk Cousins, never, ever, expected the Raiders to be undefeated at 3-0.

Kirk Cousins

Correct. I, for one, expected the Raiders to win the opener against the sad Miami Dolphins and then lose the next six games in a row. At that point, with a 1-6 record and the Jets up next on the schedule for Week 8, I was looking for Mendoza to be named the starter. What we have instead, is Cousins ranked 11th at the position averaging 23 FPts/G. It could still go south quickly for Cousins with Kansas City, New England, Buffalo and the Rams the next four opponents, but for now, Cousins is a solid low-end QB1 quarterback option.

4) The Seattle Seahawks have zero rushing touchdowns from their running back room.

True. In fact, tight end AJ Barner is the only Seahawk with a rushing touchdown this season. Among their running backs only George Holani (5) and Emanuel Wilson (3) have rushing attempts from within the 5-yard line and zero success. Perhaps they should let their first-round draft choice, Jadarian Price, try one... he couldn't do any worse.

5) "They talking about this the year he gotta go do this, or gotta do that, or he's gone. I ain't hear you say that about Justin Herbert." -Marshawn Lynch

He's not wrong. Whether its fantasy production or real life wins, in a comparison with Justin Herbert, the better numbers are with Jalen Hurts. What has Herbert done over the past five years to make him worthy of all the praise he gets? In the meantime, Hurts gets told his career is on the line while being a better winner and a better fantasy option in four of the last five years (2025 was a tie). Oh, and he's gone to two Super Bowls and won one.

FPts/G - Herbert & Hurts
Season Justin Herbert Jalen Hurts
2026 16.1 21.9
2025 22.0 22.0
2024 19.3 24.3
2023 21.3 25.6
2022 20.7 28.5
2021 26.5 24.0
2020 26.3 26.3*
reg rec 52-46 59-26
post rec 0-3 6-4

Lies

“The more you defend a lie, the angrier you become.” – Mitch Albom

1) Braelon Allen took every snap after the Breece Hall injury and should be a solid replacement for as long as Hall is sidelined.

Maybe. Allen even caught three balls out of the backfield which is one more than he caught all last season (though he only went for three total yards). A fourth-round pick out of Wisconsin in 2024, Allen will get his chance to shine the next few weeks, but beware, he's only produced double-digit fantasy points twice in his career. Allen has never seen more than 12 rushing attempts in an NFL game or rushed for more than 55 yards. He's more hopeful question mark than guaranteed production.

2) Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye and Patrick Mahomes were top-10 QBs last weekend.

False. In fact, Geno Smith, Jacoby Brissett, Aaron Rodgers and Case Keenum WERE top-10 fantasy quarterbacks in Week 3. Maye's 11.8 fantasy points beat just one starting quarterback, Jameis Winston, who played in the middle of a "northeaster."

3) Ben Johnson isn't a genius offensively he's just had great players in Detroit and now Chicago.

He just took career backup Case Keenum and made him look like a star. Keenum produced 27 fantasy points against a supposed good defense in Philadelphia. He went 24-of-34 for 247 yards and three touchdowns (one running). Yes, he has had good players, but plenty of other teams have good players and they just aren't used correctly. While Dak Prescott claimed his offense was the GOTI (greatest offense there is), I'm beginning to think under the direction of Johnson and Caleb Williams, this Bears offense might be the best by the end of the season.

4) Brock Bowers is a legal "cheat code."

No, he's just a great tight end in a perfect situation with little competition for targets and a competent quarterback. After missing two games due to injury, Bowers returned to action in Week 3 and saw a position-high 13 targets which he turned into 10 receptions, 116 yards, a score and 27.6 fantasy points. Meanwhile, the Raiders wide receiver room as a whole saw 11 targets. As long as Las Vegas doesn't bring in any other talent at receiver, Bowers will continue to produce big numbers. There are other tight end, who given this situation could also produce at this level, but they aren't in Nevada and Bowers is.

5) The Broncos or the Texans have the best defense in the league.

Sorry, no. The Minnesota Vikings with Brian Flores as their coordinator, have grabbed that moniker to date. The Vikings lead the league in sacks (14) are tied for the league in interceptions (4) and are fourth in rushing defense. They currently lead the league with an 8.7 FPts/G defense/special teams average. They do it by blitzing, early and often. They led the league last season blitzing 75.9% of the time and through the first two weeks raised that percentage to 78.2%.