Why do I say this?

Last season, 15 quarterbacks produced at least 20 FPts/G and that total did not include perennial top-5 quarterback Lamar Jackson. It didn't include Baker Mayfield. It did not include the Super Bowl-winning quarterback. It also didn't include 2024 rookie sensation Jayden Daniels' injury-plagued second season (23.7 FPts/G in 2024).

The second reason not to draft a quarterback early is because the "best" fantasy quarterback in the league, Josh Allen, only averaged 25 FPts/G last season. That production was less than one point higher than the next four quarterbacks (Matthew Stafford, Brock Purdy, Drake Maye and Patrick Mahomes). Allen's total was the lowest total to lead the league in 17 years, dating back to Drew Brees in 2008, who led the league at 24.3 FPts/G.

Can you expect Allen to drastically increase his production this season, given the team's success (12-5 with the No. 4 offense averaging 28.3 PPG) and a more balanced offense that features James Cook as much as Allen's arm? Unlikely. True, the addition of D.J. Moore will surely help the wide receiver room (it could hardly have gotten worse), but might more passing decrease Allen's elite rushing touchdown totals (41 rushing touchdowns over the past three seasons)? For this reason, I can't see Allen producing much more than a year ago.

If Allen is at 25-26 FPts/G, is he really worth spending a 22.7 ADP, which is at least two rounds before any other quarterback, and as much as nine rounds earlier than those who produced at least 24 FPts/G (Maye ADP 52.3, Stafford ADP 96.7, Mahomes ADP 107 and Purdy ADP 110)?

If we are in agreement that Allen is not worth a late-second-round selection, and also that someone in your league will surely draft him at that level anyway, then it's our job to determine a better-valued quarterback for our roster.

Let's look at the list based on their ADP.

Lamar Jackson, BAL (40) – Jackson's 2025 season produced his worst fantasy totals since his rookie season. His touchdown pass total dropped almost in half (41 to 21), his passing yards-per-game dropped almost 50 yards (245 to 196) and his rushing yards dropped 27 yards-per-game (53.8 to 26.8). They added two rookie receivers (Ja'Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt), but lost their “1A” tight end Isaiah Likely. They still have the never-aging Derrick Henry, whose presence has cut into Jackson's rushing touchdown totals. What should convince me he's 2019–24 Jackson again? The new offensive coordinator? The second quarterback off the board should be a sure thing and I cannot say that about Jackson in 2026.

Drake Maye, NE (52.3) – The progress Maye made from his rookie season to his second year was remarkable. His passing was more accurate (66.6% to 72.0%) and his passing yards-per-game rose a stunning 83 ypg (175 to 258) without significantly affecting his running game. He'll be playing a first-place schedule in 2026, but the team added an All-Pro-level wideout in A.J. Brown in the offseason. I would have no concerns drafting Maye at the beginning of the sixth round over Allen near the end of the second.

Joe Burrow, CIN (56.3) – Do you feel lucky? When Burrow plays a full season, he's averaged 25.7 FPts/G. He's done that three times. He's also played three partial seasons (10 games or less due to injuries), and in those he's averaged 20.2 FPts/G. That's a 50/50 proposition that he finishes top-five or around 15th at the position. So… do you feel lucky?

Jayden Daniels, WAS (58.7) – If Burrow is a gamble, Daniels is more so. He finished in the top seven as a rookie but fell to 19th in 2025 due to injuries, averaging just 19.3 FPts/G. A questionable offensive line adds to the crapshoot, as does the change in personnel. He still has Terry McLaurin but lost his “safety blanket” Zach Ertz and veteran Deebo Samuel. They added Stefon Diggs and tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo, which is probably a wash. Drafting Daniels means you believe he can get his rookie-season magic back. I'd rather gamble on Burrow's health for the same price.

Jalen Hurts, PHI (62.7) – Sadly for this Eagles fan to say, but I think Hurts' fantasy value peaked in 2022 and has been slowly sliding since. That's not his value as a leader of a team with Super Bowl aspirations. I believe the Eagles would prefer to have Saquon Barkley run the ball over all other options behind their “elite-when-healthy” offensive line. The preseason injuries to both DeVonta Smith and rookie Makai Lemon are likely to send the passing game off to a slow start. Meanwhile, Hurts was reluctant to run this past season for fear of injury and the “tush push” was less effective, leading to him rushing for just eight touchdowns after four consecutive double-digit seasons. If he's not going to run effectively, let someone else draft Hurts, there are better options at a lower price.

Caleb Williams, CHI (81.0) – For all the excitement surrounding Williams, his completion percentage dropped from his rookie season to his second year (62.5 to 58.1). That was mainly from taking more chances in his sophomore season, and his touchdown total rose from 20 to 27 without a corresponding rise in interceptions. The team allowed a quality receiver to leave (D.J. Moore) because they liked what they saw from youngsters Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III. And they loved how tight end Colston Loveland came on at the end of the season and into the playoffs. With Ben Johnson calling the shots again this season, Williams should continue to improve and a 24 FPts/G average is possible. He would be a much better value here than taking Allen six rounds earlier for the possibility of 25–26 points.

Jaxson Dart, NYG (82.7) – Rookie Jaxson Dart made himself a solid fantasy option more based on his legs than his arm. He only threw for 162.3 ypg while he rushed for 34.8 ypg and nine touchdowns. The downside is he suffered about five concussions and spent more time in the “blue tent” than on the field. He's an injury waiting to happen if he continues to run, but his fantasy value likely drops if he doesn't. That's a conundrum I'll leave for other fantasy owners. I'm not willing to go here even though the team has made improvements in the passing game, primarily because their “new” head coach (John Harbaugh) is well known for wanting to control the clock on the ground. I'd much rather have Caleb Williams or Trevor Lawrence than Dart.

Dak Prescott, DAL (83.0) – Prescott threw for over 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns for the fourth time in 2025. He led the seventh-best scoring offense (27.7 ppg), yet the team had a losing record because of its 32nd-ranked defense. The offense should be just as potent in 2026 with all the leading players back in the fold, and the defense should be improved after the team spent most of its draft capital there. Oddly, the improvement of the defense may hinder Prescott's ability to repeat his numbers because they may be playing with a lead more often this season. While I think he can get close to last season's totals, I think the defensive improvement will limit Prescott's ceiling while helping running back Javonte Williams close out victories. Prescott will probably stay in the bottom half of the top 10 at the position, which makes him a viable draft pick at this ADP.

Trevor Lawrence, JAX (90.7) – Lawrence produced the best statistics of his five-year career, but it wasn't because of his arm; it was his running that made the difference. His nine touchdown runs were more than he ever had even if you combined his 2023 and 2024 totals. His 23.9 FPts/G ranked sixth-best, yet he's the eighth quarterback off the board. The receiver room is the best he's had in his career with Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers. That doesn't include “cornerback” Travis Hunter. Lawrence is already throwing for 4,000 yards regularly, so the key to repeating his 2025 numbers will be whether he continues to use his legs. I think he will do just that.

Justin Herbert, LAC (94.3) – I understand why Herbert is always mentioned in conversations with more productive quarterbacks. He throws a beautiful ball. He looks great in the pocket. But people, that was 2020 and 2021. He's averaged 20.8 FPts/G over the last four seasons. He hasn't thrown for 4,000 in three seasons. Stop living in the past. He has a Harbaugh (Jim) as his head coach who just paid $9.25 million, including $5 million guaranteed, for a backup running back. Harbaugh will want to run the ball with Omarion Hampton and Keaton Mitchell first. Also, with a top-10 defense, he rarely needs to put 30 points on the board to win a football game. Do you want a quarterback who looks pretty or one who produces fantasy points?

Matthew Stafford, LAR (96.7) – Stafford will turn 39 years old a week before this year's Super Bowl, and by the looks of what the team has done this offseason, they want him there in uniform. They return all the skill players from last season when they led the league in scoring (30.5 ppg). Everything went right for Stafford right up until they lost the NFC Championship Game to Seattle, but even then he threw for 374 yards and three touchdowns worth 32.3 fantasy points. The question is whether he can repeat, or get close to, the 46 touchdowns and 4,707 yards he produced in 2025. His legs won't help in this equation as he doesn't run at all (29 times for one yard). But a 10th-round selection who produced 24.7 FPts/G in 2025 is a better bet than Allen at ADP 22.7, who produced 25 FPts/G. Count me in if he's still on the board in the 10th round.

Bo Nix, DEN (104.3) – Nix has been pretty consistent over his first two seasons, averaging 21.9 in his rookie year and 21.3 last season as the team fell one game short of the Super Bowl. In the offseason, the Broncos took a big swing at taking the final step by obtaining Jaylen Waddle from the Dolphins for a couple of high draft choices. Waddle and Courtland Sutton should make for excellent targets for Nix. But as in Dallas, where I think an improved defense could hurt the offense, the Denver defense is so good that the offense rarely has to force the issue. They were No. 2 against the run, No. 7 against the pass and No. 3 in scoring defense. Because of that, Nix will hover around the 4,000-yard passing mark as he did in 2025 and likely produce similar results (21.3 FPts/G). That's solid production, but likely between 10th–12th place at the position. Nice numbers, but if you start Nix the rest of the team will have to carry you to the championship.

Patrick Mahomes, KC (107.3) – Oh Patrick! You were elite from 2018–2022, then declined (fantasy-wise) in 2023–24 despite winning on the field. Last season was very good until the knee injury ended it all. The problem is, the difference in last season from the previous two was your running ability. You rushed for career highs in yards (423) and touchdowns (5) in 2025. Coming back from the ACL injury, I doubt you will be in a running mood, which is bad news for fantasy owners. So is the inevitable drop in production from once-great Travis Kelce. A full season from Rashee Rice (we hope) and speedster Xavier Worthy can't make up for Kelce's decline. I can't go here even at this low, low price of an 11th-round pick and expect an every-week starter.

Brock Purdy, SF (110.7) – Purdy finished third last season, producing 24.6 fantasy points. Interestingly, he did so well because he threw to his star running back early and often. Christian McCaffrey didn't run the ball particularly well last season (3.9 YPC), but his 102 receptions helped CMC lead all backs at 24.5 FPts/G and helped Purdy finish in the top three. Fantasy owners must be concerned with CMC's workload last season (413 regular-season touches) as well as the health of Purdy's receivers. Underrated Jauan Jennings is no longer here and Ricky Pearsall is already out for the season. The receiver room is led by new 49er Mike Evans along with old 49er Deebo Samuel. Surprising rookie (at least in preseason) De'Zhaun Stribling could be a key to Purdy's season along with the health of his 30-year-old running back and his 33-year-old star receiver. If they all stay healthy, Purdy could repeat a top-five finish, but the floor could also be closer to 21 FPts/G. In the 12th round, however, he's worth a selection.

Jared Goff, DET (127.3) – If you select Goff here in the 13th round, you likely won't be disappointed. He's averaged between 21.3 and 22.7 the past three seasons. But you also won't see a huge ceiling either. His 22.7 FPts/G, in Ben Johnson's last season for the Lions, was Goff's best in five years with Detroit. His skill-position players as a unit are as good as anyone's: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs. His downfall is he doesn't run the ball (45 yards last season and no rushing touchdowns in two seasons). He won't lose you the championship, but he most likely won't win it for you either.

Baker Mayfield, TB (143.3) – Don't be fooled by Mayfield's 2024 season (26.2 FPts/G). That appears to have been a “career year.” In six of the last seven seasons, Mayfield didn't crack 20 FPts/G. Mike Evans is gone. Chris Godwin is injury prone. Your hope for Mayfield is Emeka Egbuka plays like he did at the beginning of last season and that Mayfield learns very quickly how good a receiving back Kenneth Gainwell can be. I don't believe Mayfield can be a stand-alone fantasy starter, but could be valuable in a shared quarterback situation.

Kyler Murray, MIN (147.7) – Like Herbert, Murray hasn't been a full-time, start-worthy fantasy quarterback in four seasons. Multiple injuries and mediocre performance left the Cardinals looking elsewhere for a starter in 2026. Fortunately for Murray, he landed in a perfect situation with the Vikings. It won't take much to be better than the Vikings quarterbacks from last season and his wide receiver corps is led by one of the best in Justin Jefferson. Jefferson (six consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to start his career), Jordan Addison, the aforementioned Jennings and tight end T.J. Hockenson will be the best group Murray has been with. Aaron Jones can catch the ball out of the backfield… when healthy. Murray has been at his fantasy best (2020–2021) when he adlibbed plays, but he might not need to in 2026. His ceiling is high, but his floor mediocrity. I could certainly choose Murray in the 15th round if I also had a steady quarterback on my roster (like Goff maybe).

Tyler Shough, NO (153.7) – Shough was getting a lot of offseason hype after finishing the season with six consecutive 20-plus-point performances. He was also expecting to have first-round selection Jordyn Tyson opposite veteran wideout Chris Olave, but the rookie is expected to miss two months due to a hamstring injury. Also, Alvin Kamara is dealing with a sprained MCL, leaving the backfield to newcomer Travis Etienne. I don't think this offense will be ready to go early in the season, so Shough should only be drafted for a backup role.

Jordan Love, GB (155.0) – I'm not sure where all the fantasy “love” for Love comes from since he hasn't cracked 19 FPts/G in the past two seasons. Even his best season was just 22.6 FPts/G. The Packers receivers could be good if the trio of Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden rise to expectations. Tight end Tucker Kraft was onto a monster season before a season-ending injury. Still, as long as the offense runs through Josh Jacobs, Love can't be a “set it and forget it” fantasy starter.

Sam Darnold, SEA (175.0) – Winning the Super Bowl in 2025 validated Darnold's previous season in Minnesota, but it didn't make him an everyday fantasy starter. Yes, he can throw to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but the remainder of the receiver room is aging Cooper Kupp and Rashid Shaheed. The Seahawks like to run the ball (and spent a first-round pick on Jadarian Price after losing Kenneth Walker to Kansas City), throw when needed to JSN and play great defense. That got them a ring, but also left Darnold averaging 18.3 FPts/G. Don't expect much to change in 2026.

Malik Willis, MIA (177.7) – There has been abnormal hype around Willis this offseason after he finished last season with a 36.4 fantasy-point game for Green Bay against the Ravens (288 yards passing, 60 yards rushing and three combined touchdowns). But now he's the starter in Miami, which might just have the worst roster in the league. Fantasy “experts” are expecting him to run a lot, but that brings injury into play. When he does go back to pass, if the OL holds up, he's throwing to a group led by Malik Washington, rookie Caleb Douglas, Jalen Tolbert and tight end Greg Dulcich. His best asset is running back De'Von Achane, who has averaged 72 receptions the past two seasons and rushed for 1,350 yards in 2025. In my opinion, this is a “hero” selection, because that's what you are if it works out, but the odds are steeply against it.

C.J. Stroud, HOU (184.3) – Speaking of bucking the odds, Stroud is being drafted about the time kickers are being selected... if at all. The Texans pattern their team like the Seahawks: great defense, run the ball and pass to Nico Collins when needed. They lost up-and-coming Jayden Higgins in preseason, but Tank Dell may return after missing the entire 2025 season. I can't see Stroud repeating his rookie-season production (22.1 FPts/G), so keep looking elsewhere.

As you can see, there are a decent number of options I like better than spending significant Draft Day capital on Josh Allen.