For Detroit, the signs are on the wall that more and more of the backfield workload will go to explosive Jahmyr Gibbs and Monty wouldn't be likely to produce at his average $7 million-a-year salary for the next two seasons. For the Texans, it signifies the team's concern for the health of Joe Mixon, who missed all of 2025 and the age/free agent status of Nick Chubb.

Montgomery in Detroit

Montgomery was signed as a free agent in March of 2023 to be the team's primary running back after 2022's lead back, Jamaal Williams was released. So it was likely a surprise to fans and fantasy owners when a month later the team used a No.12 overall selection for Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs. "Thunder and Lightning" produced nearly identical numbers in the first year with Montgomery producing 219-1,015-13 and Gibbs 243-1,223-13. But over the next two seasons, Gibbs' workload and production increased (he averaged 21.7 FPts/G last season) while Monty has seen his touches go from 235-221-182. This upcoming season figured to be more of the same as Gibbs continues to grow more lethal with the football in his hands with No.5's talent wasted on the bench. Thus, the trade.

Montgomery in Houston

The Texans were a patchwork running back room in 2025. Joe Mixon, who posted 245-1,016-11 and 17.2 FPts/G in 2024 didn't get on the field for a single carry in 2025 due to a mysterious foot/ankle injury. From training camp through the early part of the season he was expected back at some point, but it never materialized. The team could move on from Mixon and the trade for Montgomery is a clear indication they are moving in that direction. Additionally, Nick Chubb, who was brought in because of the concern for Mixon and ended up as the early season starter, is an unrestricted free agent.

Without Mixon and Chubb, the running back workload figures to be shared between Montgomery and season-ending starter, Woody Marks. Montgomery didn't lose carries in Detroit because he was ineffective (he averaged 4.5 ypc in 2025), it was because they have a superstar in the backfield. Monty can, and likely still will be, the first- and second-down back for the Texans with Marks as the change-of-pace and third-down back since Montgomery has never been a big part of the passing game.

Conclusion

Here's the problem with predicting how Montgomery and Marks will perform in 2026... the offensive line. Even in a down year, with the loss of All-Pro center Frank Ragnow, Montgomery ran behind a top-10 offensive line. By contrast, the Texans OL ranked in the bottom-five in 2025 after trading away Laremy Tunsil. They just traded Juice Scruggs to get Montgomery and last year's free agent addition, Cam Robinson, didn't work out. Barring another trade or multiple draft day additions a line of; Aireontae Ersery (LT), Jarrett Patterson (LG), Jake Andrews (C), Ed Ingram (RG) and Trent Brown (RT) will likely continue to be subpar. Therefore, while I expect Montgomery's rushing attempts to be close to 200 this season, a lack of holes to run through will produce a reduction in effectiveness. I think we will see him post numbers like: 195-798-7 and 10.7 FPts/G. Those numbers put him at the very bottom of the RB2 ranks.