As veteran fantasy owners, sometimes we get complacent about our
expectations for our players. Then when they go outside the standard
deviation, we get surprised. But we really shouldn't. Quarterbacks,
running back and receivers are human after all. They will have good
days and bad days. They will have good years and bad years.
Our job, as prognosticators, and your job as fantasy owners are
similar. We are all just trying to predict the unpredictable.
Easy right?
Last week we examined
those quarterbacks who played above expectations to see whether
we thought they would continue at their new level… or return to
their “normal” level of production.
This time around, we will analyze those quarterbacks who failed
us in 2025, did not produce as expected, and try to find out why
they didn't. That answer will help us determine whether they can
improve on a disappointing 2025, return to their “normal” production
level or maybe even better and help our fantasy teams by becoming
a value pick for the upcoming season.
In 2024, Jackson led many fantasy owners to titles by averaging
a league-leading 28.7 FPts/G with a line of 4,172 yards passing,
41-4 TD-INT ratio and rushing for 915 yards and four scores. He
outscored the NFL MVP by 3.8 FPts/G. But 2025 was not so accommodating.
The team went 6-7 in his 13 starts and he averaged a pedestrian
19.9 FPts/G. That was 16th-best, behind the likes of Daniel Jones,
Bo Nix and Jacoby Brissett. Jackson threw for 50 less yards-per-game
and 20 fewer touchdowns. He rushed for career lows of 349 yards
and two touchdowns. His running game cost fantasy owners 3.6 FPts/G
by itself.
Why did this significant fall off take place? To begin with,
his pass protection was horrible. He was sacked 10.65% of the
time (36 sacks on 338 attempts). He was sacked/pressured 34.25%
of the time. Meanwhile, other than Zay Flowers (86-1,211-5) the
wide receiver room was pmediocre. DeAndre Hopkins looked like
the 12-years in the league had taken a toll on him and Rashod Bateman is not start-worthy. Mark Andrews produced one game of
more than 48 receiving yards. That's a tough way to make a living.
There will be a lot of “new” in 2026. A new head coach (former
Chargers DC Jesse Minter), a new OC (from Bears OC Declan Doyle)
and new help along the OL. They drafted OG Olaivavega Ioane (PSU)
in the first round and signed free agent guard John Simpson (three-year,
$30M). They drafted two wideouts in the third and fourth rounds
(Ja'Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt, respectively).
What will the future hold for Jackson? One good note: he won't
have to face Trey
Hendrickson twice a year… the team signed him away from Cincinnati.
But the loss of top-five center, Tyler Linderbaum, will be hard
to fill. Also, Derrick
Henry is 32-years old. I just saw an early OL ranking which
places Baltimore at No.24. Given all these changes, it's hard
for me to tell you Lamar will return to an MVP level (28 FPts/G).
He should certainly improve on last year's 16th-best fantasy total,
but the nine-year veteran isn't getting any younger and will have
to protect himself better. That usually means running less and
throwing more, but the receiving corps will have to step up their
game because Flowers and Andrews is not enough. Interestingly,
one casino has set Jackson's over/under for passing TDs at 24.5.
At that level of production there is no way he's a top-five fantasy
QB. I'm thinking eighth to 10th place.
In contrast to Jackson, analyzing Burrow is a breeze. If he plays
a full season… he's elite. If he's injured, his season goes in
the dumpster. In Joe's three seasons where he played 16-or-more
games, he's averaged 25.7 FPts/G. In Burrow's other three seasons,
where he played a maximum of 10 games, he averaged just 20.2 FPts/G.
So the question fantasy owners must ask themselves before drafting
Burrow is, “Did the team do enough in the off-season to protect
their franchise QB? The Bengals ranked 17th in pressure rate and
27th in “time-to-pressure” which isn't good when you don't have
an elusive quarterback. Their best tackle, Orlando Brown Jr.,
gave up nine sacks at LT and 46 pressures. He'll have to be better
as will second-year starter Amarius Mims. The team also drafted
two offensive lineman (Dylan Fairchild and Jalen Rivers), but
neither was a first- or second-round selection, so whether they
can help right away is to be determined. Burrow's current over/under
has been set at a league-high 32.5 TD passes, so someone thinks
he's going to survive the 2026 season intact, in which case he's
a top-five fantasy quarterback.
Hurt's 2025 fantasy numbers were the worst since he became a
full-time starter. That still was enough to be ranked ninth in
fantasy at 22.0 FPts/G. But after averaging 25.6 FPts/G from 2021-24,
the last season was a disappointment. You will be surprised to
know the difference wasn't from his passing, it was from his running…
or lack of it. He ran the ball 30% less, accumulated 33% less
rushing yards and 43% less touchdowns from 2024 to 2025. That
difference cost him 4.3 FPts/G.
Now for the hard part. Will he run more or will the new offense
behind new OC Sean Mannion be able to make up the difference in
the air? I think the answer is unlikely. The OL was often injured
last season after the Super Bowl run of '24 and it showed. Saquon Barkley took the biggest “hit” falling from 22 FPts/G to 14.5,
but the struggling line also effected Hurts' totals. The Eagles
still have weapons on the outside even if they do end up trading
away wideout A.J. Brown. DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, first-round
selection Makai Lemon and second-round TE Eli Stowers, along with
Barkley, make this offense dangerous. How quickly Hurts adapts
to the new offense will determine how high up the charts for Hurts.
I do not expect double-digit rushing touchdowns anymore as he
protects himself in his seventh season (fewer "Tush Push"), so
Hurts figures to finish the season ranked between No.6 and 10.
Those who believe Justin Herbert is an elite fantasy quarterback
are living in the past. Yes, he throws a pretty ball, looks great
standing in the pocket and even ran for a career-high 498 yards
last season. But he is not the guy who averaged 26.4 FPts/G in
his first two seasons. Neither is his team. Under current head
coach Jim Harbaugh the Chargers are a run-first team. They averaged
just 508 passing attempts from 2024-25. That compares unfavorably
to the average 633 attempts in Herbert's first two seasons when
he put up elite numbers. The team drafted Omarion Hampton with
the first pick of 2025 and when not hurt he proved to be pretty
useful. They picked up Keaton Mitchell in the offseason (formerly
of Baltimore) and still have Kimani Vidal.
The Chargers OL was a mess a year ago due to injuries to both
tackles – Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. Assuming they return healthy
they also built the interior line by signing Tyler Biadasz, Cole
Strange and drafting Jake Slaughter from Florida in the second
round. Harbaugh has made it clear he wants to run the ball. Herbert
figures to have solid numbers, but limited attempts and be a low-end
fantasy QB1 in the 22 FPts/G range.
Mayfield's 2024 season was a career year and he will never reach
those heights again. I'm sorry if that hurts, because he seems
like a nice guy. But look at the numbers, He's only cracked the
20 FPts/G mark twice in eight seasons. His rookie campaign in
Cleveland and the 2024 miracle run where everything fell into
place. His All-Pro wide receiver, Mike Evans, is gone. Can Chris Godwin stay healthy? Will we get first half Emeka Egbuka (40-677-6
thru Week 10) or the second half guy who did very little (12-261-0)?
In 2024, Mayfield found his running backs 108 times. In 2025,
that number fell to 78.
The Buccaneers OL took on water in 2025, No lineman played more
than 800 snaps or appeared in more than 12 games. The first requirement
for a Mayfield comeback is they get healthy. Same with Godwin.
Even if that happens, this is a balanced offense and I can't see
Mayfield putting up 4500 passing yards and 41 touchdowns as in
2024. Don't let dreams of another “career year” cloud what you
see in front of you. He's a high 19 FPts/G quarterback which makes
him a QB2.
Daniels rookie season had everyone salivating for the second
year, but injuries disrupted the “lovefest.” After averaging 23.7
FPts/G in 2024, his numbers dramatically dropped to 19.3 FPts/G
over just seven games played. His 69% completion rate fell to
60.6% last season.
Gone are Deebo
Samuel and tight end Zach
Ertz and their 122 receptions. Terry
McLaurin remains and is still a big threat. But whether Treylon
Burks, third-round selection Antonio
Williams and free agent signee tight end Chigoziem
Okonkwo can pick up the slack is unknown. A new OC (David
Blough) leaves even more question marks. Daniels will truly
be the biggest gamble of any QB1 quarterback selected.
It's been five years since Murray put together a QB1 worthy season.
He hasn't cracked 22 FPts/G since 2021 and fell below 20 FPts/G
in the five games he played last season. But perhaps a change
of scenery and receivers will help him return to glory?
Having Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings and tight
end T.J. Hockenson can't hurt his chances of improvement. Aaron Jones catching balls out of the backfield is another asset. It
will also help that the Vikings defense is lightyears better than
the Cardinals defense. He shouldn't be playing catch up as often.
He'll also have little competition for the starting role given
what we saw from J.J. McCarthy last season. But I have yet to
see Murray grasp an offense and play within it. He's always been
a "run-around until someone breaks open or he runs for the first
down" type of guy. He needs to play under control. And he needs
to feed Jefferson to keep him happy. I believe he has the tools
to be a low-end QB1 in 2026.
