Like most people in this world, quarterbacks get "comfortable" playing
at a certain level of production in their job. For some, like Josh Allen, it's playing at an elite level (over the past five seasons
he's averaged 27.1 FPts/G and never less than 24.9 FPts/G).
Others are similarly consistent, but at lower levels of success.
At least they are predictable. Jared Goff is a solid example of
this type of player. Over the past four seasons he's produced
no lower than 20.3 FPts/G and no more than 22.7 per game.
But a significant number, the ones we will be analyzing today
and next week, produced drastically different numbers in 2025
from their “normal” NFL fantasy season. It's up to us to determine
which player will show up in 2026. Will he be a bargain or overpriced?
It's important for us to figure out why they went “rogue” and
whether they can or will do it again next season. Or, will they
return to what we have known them to be?
Stafford will be 39-years-old during this seasons' playoffs,
which we all expect the Rams to be a major part of. His 2025 season
was probably the finest of his career. He threw for 4,707 yards
and a career-high 46 touchdowns against just eight interceptions.
He was healthy for the entire season. He had an excellent pair
of wide receivers (Puka Nacua and Davante Adams), a gaggle of
proficient tight ends (combined 103 receptions) and an efficient
two-man running game (Kyren Williams and Blake Corum). After averaging
just under 18 FPts/G from 2022-24, he produced 24.7 FPts/G, a
37% increase in 2025.
Almost the entire offense will be back in tact for 2026 as the
team concentrated their offseason effort on the defensive side
of the ball and long-term quarterback plans (Ty Simpson). The
only offensive help that could likely come into play is second-round
selection Max Klare, who was added to the already crowded tight
end room. As long as Stafford, and his two star receivers stay
healthy, this elite offense should continue to produce (No. 1
at 30.5 PPG in 2025). The only concern I see, is if the defensive
additions make the Ram defense good enough (Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson) that the offense won't have to play for all 60 minutes,
but a tough schedule outside the NFC West division including;
Denver, Philadelphia, Buffalo, LA Chargers, Green Bay, Kansas
City and Dallas should prevent a lot of blowout wins. Stafford
is the one non-running quarterback who will finish top-five in
FPts/G in 2026.
Everything went right for the second-year quarterback… at least
in the regular season. Of course, that's all a fantasy owner cares
about. He took a weak schedule, which included just four playoff
teams, and both threw (4,394 passing yards and 31 touchdowns)
and ran (450 rushing yards and four scores) his way to a 14-3
record and 24.3 FPts/G. Maye produced the fourth-best quarterback
fantasy numbers despite a mediocre-at-best wide receiver room
(Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins, Kayshon Boutte and Demario Douglas).
Patriots' management is working hard to improve the WR room,
they released divisive Diggs and signed former Green Bay free
agent Romeo Doubs in March. Meanwhile, there continues to be consistent
noise that they will add elite Eagles' wideout A.J. Brown after
June 1. And they drafted a tough OT in Utah's Caleb Lomu to try
and protect their young quarterback. But the most important factor
in looking at whether Maye can reproduce his 2025 results is likely
the 2026 schedule. They will play twice as many 2025 playoff teams
this year and Detroit and Kansas City late in the season when
Patrick Mahomes is likely back on the field. The Pats start the
season against the defending Super Bowl Champions, then play Pittsburgh,
Jacksonville and Buffalo… all playoff teams from a year ago. They
played three top-10 defenses (based on yards) in '25, but will
face seven in '26. This year will be a much tougher challenge
and I'm expected a drop in production. How significant, will depend
on whether Brown is actually acquired. Until we know this answer,
it is TBA. Top-10 is reasonable, but he is unlikely to be top-five
this season even with Brown.
After four pretty mediocre seasons, we finally saw what a first-overall
pick should look like from Trevor Lawrence. He threw the ball
well and he showed off his running ability with a career-high
nine rushing touchdowns. That more rushing touchdowns than Jalen Hurts had, more than twice as many as Maye and four times more
than the no-longer-running Lamar Jackson's total. He led his team
went 13-4 and made the playoffs. Fantasy-wise he was 6.3 FPts/G
better than 2024 and 4.7 FPts/G over his Year 1-4 average (19.2).
And he did it mostly without the team's first-round selection
from 2025 – Travis Hunter.
He'll likely be without Hunter for most of 2026 too, as the team
seems to prefer him to concentrate on defensive back and be an
occasional wideout. They still have talented Brian Thomas Jr.
and the second half of 2025 saw the emergence of Parker Washington
(58-847-5). Washington averaged 7.4 FPts/G through Week 8 and
19.2 from Week 9 to the end of the season. Then the icing on the
cake was a 7-107-1 game in the first round of the playoffs. Lawrence
will be missing a big piece of the offense as Travis Etienne,
a not insignificant part of the passing game, left for New Orleans.
Between Etienne and Hunter that's nearly 600 yards receiving and
seven touchdown catches. Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez Jr.
will likely share the backfield. Lawrence should be able to overcome
the team's pass-catching changes, but the key to his fantasy value
will be those touchdown runs. It was more than twice his career
average (3.5). If he will continue to run, he can be a top-10
fantasy quarterback, but if Lawrence hesitates at all in leaving
the pocket near the goal line (eight were from inside the 10-yard
line) he would be destined to return to fantasy mediocrity.
Daniel Jones was a fantasy winner over the first two weeks of
the season, then the rollercoaster ride began. Three poor totals,
five solid numbers then two more poor weeks before an injury in
Week 14. If you leave out the injury game in Week 14, Jones averaged
22.8 FPts/G. That's top-seven numbers.
The bad news is that his veteran security blanket, Michael Pittman Jr., was traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The good news is that
he was no longer the team's elite receiver. That title goes to
Alec Pierce, who managed to produce a 1,000-yard season on just
47 receptions. Josh Downs also became a key contributor. Meanwhile,
rookie tight end Tyler Warren (76-817-4) will only get better.
The team didn't draft much offensive help in April, so Jones and
those three receivers plus the occasional 80-yard run from Jonathan Taylor will be the team's offense. The offensive-minded head coach,
Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter should be able to make it
work against what appears to be a much easier schedule.
Brissett has been an intermittent starter in his 10 years in
the NFL, with stops in New England (twice), Indianapolis, Miami,
Cleveland, Washington and now Arizona. Even when given a chance
to start, mostly due to injuries to the first guy on the depth
chart, Brissett had never averaged more than 17.7 FPts/G. In 65
starts, he has managed just 20 wins and 45 losses. And last year
was no different. As a starter he was 1-11. But in his 12 starts
he averaged a very respectable 23.6 FPts/G. The number was even
higher before a late season slump (18.5 over his final three games).
He threw the ball well, didn't throw to the wrong jerseys and
made it easier for the Cardinals management to jettison QB Kyler Murray. With the only other options being; another journeyman
(Gardner Minshew) or a third-round rookie selection (Carson Beck),
Brissett figures to be the Arizona starter on opening day.
The new coaching staff led by head man Mike LaFleur and OC Nathanial
Hackett, have shown by their offseason actions that this 2026
version of the Cardinals will be primarily a ground team and not
a high-flying bunch. To start, they signed former Falcons RB2
Tyler Allgeier to a decent-sized contract. Then, in April at the
draft, they shocked many by selecting Notre Dame running back
Jeremiyah Love with the third-overall pick. Meanwhile, James Conner
is still on this team. This team intends to run the ball early
and often. It's not that they lack guys who can catch the ball.
Tight end Trey McBride is one of the league's best (126-1239-11).
Michael Wilson had a breakout season (78-1006-7) at wideout and
the team still has Marvin Harrison Jr., who has all the tools,
but has yet to blossom as expected (41-608-4) after being the
fourth overall pick in 2024.
The question is whether new management will let Brissett wing
it as he did in 2025, when he threw an average of 40.3 passes
per game. The obvious answer is… not a chance. The Cardinals'
defense yielded 30 points-or-more in seven of the 12 starts, so
he was always playing catch up. They want to run the ball to control
the clock and not expose the defense more than necessary. Brissett
figures to be limited in opportunities and will likely rarely
throw more than 33 times a game. This significant reduction will
likely make Brissett a non-factor in 2026, unless your starter
gets hurt or the occasional bye.
Next week; quarterbacks who disappointed us and whether they
can return to form.
