It was January of 2018, I was an avid Eagles fan (still am), and
I was trying to find a reason to be excited about upcoming Super
Bowl LII. It was hard, because my MVP-candidate quarterback, Carson Wentz, was sidelined by a torn ACL and my new starting quarterback
for the big game was backup Nick Foles.
Although the Eagles were the No.1 seed in the NFC, with a backup
quarterback they were listed as an underdog in both the first
game against Atlanta and in the NFL Championship game versus Minnesota.
They barely squeezed by Atlanta, 15-10, when Matt Ryan's
last-second pass sailed above Julio Jones' reach. Then they
blew out the Vikings after trailing early by a 38-7 score.
But this was the Super Bowl and they were facing the "GOAT"
- Tom Brady. The Patriots star already owned five rings, including
earning one the previous season in dramatic fashion with a comeback
from 28-3 to beat the Falcons 34-28.
Then, I stumbled onto the following fact.
Since 2000, the quarterback with the best TD-INT ratio actually
LOST the Super Bowl 64.7-percent of the time (11-of-17).
Some notable losses from elite quarterbacks include; Peyton
Manning's record-breaking season in 2013 when he threw for
55 touchdowns and 5,477 yards, but lost to a young Russell
Wilson. Or in 2007, when Brady (50-8) led the Patriots to
an undefeated regular season, only to be upset by Eli
Manning who barely threw more touchdown passes than interceptions
(23-20).
Applying this trend to the 2017 season, Foles threw five touchdown
passes versus two Interceptions and the mighty "goat"
produced 32 touchdowns against eight picks. Well, we all know
how that turned out... a 41-33 Eagles victory. Parade time
in Philadelphia!
Eight years later, this TD-INT ratio trend is still holding true.
In the eight-year timeframe from 2017-2024, the quarterback with
the best TD-INT ratio lost six of eight games. That makes the
record 17-8 over the last 25 Super Bowls with a winning percentage
now up to 68-percent.
So, let's look at the two starting quarterbacks for Super
Bowl LX.
Second-year Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has produced an MVP-type
season (likely to finish second behind Matthew Stafford) with
31 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions. That puts him
well ahead of Seattle's Sam Darnold who went for 25 touchdown
versus 14 interceptions.
If you tell me there is a 68-percent chance that one team will
win over another, I know which way I'd be betting...
sorry New England.
