I have compared the preseason draft rankings and the post-season finishes by position (based on total fantasy points earned). The idea of this exercise is to determine the primary reason for large variances in our expectations and a player’s 2025 production and whether it can help our expectations for 2026.

Looking at many of the results, I’ve divided each position category based on four conclusions:

1) WILL REBOUND: Underachieved expectations primarily due to injury, so I’m not holding these results against the player.

2) REDUCE EXPECTATIONS: Underachieved expectations due to poor play or outside factors and lowering future outlook.

3) RETURN TO PREVIOUS LEVELS: Overachieved expectations, usually for a one-time reason, therefore I’m expecting a “return to the mean” in 2026.

Wide Receivers

Will Rebound

Malik Nabers - After an excellent rookie season (109-1,204-7), Nabers failed to repeat due to a torn right ACL and meniscus in Week 4. The target hog (170 in 2024), left those who selected him high (WR5) with a gigantic hole in our receiving corps. Given that he suffered the injury so early in the season, there is no reason he can't be ready for Opening Day and Jaxson Dart should be the best quarterback he's played with in the NFL.

Tyreek Hill - The soon-to-be 32-year-old was already on the decline due to inconsistent quarterback play and could retire rather than face the journey back to the field. But even if he returns, he's fighting age and more quarterback questions. Can he succeed with Quinn Ewers, the benched Tua Tagovailoa or someone else? Too many questions to believe he can return to elite status.

Justin Jefferson - Jefferson's six consecutive 1,000-yard seasons was in doubt this past season due to poor quarterback play. He's still a great receiver if Vikings management can fix their quarterback situation. Max Brosmer, J.J. McCarthy and Carson Wentz weren't very good, though Wentz-to-Jefferson did average 16.4 FPts/G. If McCarthy is the starter, significant reduction must be expected. I'm guessing Minnesota fans long for Sam Darnold.

Brian Thomas Jr. - Like Nabers, Thomas excelled in his rookie season (87-1,282-10), but unlike the Giants wideout, BTJ can't blame all of his sophomore year failures on injury. He did lose some time due to an ankle injury, but he was much less efficient overall in 2025. His catch percentage dropped from 65% to 53%. The team dealt with this and the Travis Hunter season-ending injury by adding Jakobi Meyers from Las Vegas, raising third-year wideout Parker Washington and tight end Brent Strange usage. Lawrence and the team succeeded in this new reality. I don't believe BTJ will see the volume needed to return to his rookie level production.

Michael Wilson - Wilson took advantage of the injury and poor play by Marvin Harrison Jr. to become a fantasy starter. It also helped when the team benched Kyler Murray (192.4 passing yards-per-game) for Jacoby Brissett (280.5). The problem for Wilson, is the Brissett-led Arizona Cardinals went 1-11, so there is no guarantee he'll be the 2026 starter. Too many questions surround this team to expect Wilson to produce top-10 total points. He isn't likely to fall all the way back to 2024 level, but it could be a significant drop.

Wan'Dale Robinson - Robinson took great advantage of the Nabers injury in Week 4. It wasn't in targets, but it was in the quality of the targets. Less wide receiver screens and more downfield targets as evidenced from his rise from 7.5 yards-per-reception in 2024 to 11.0 yards in 2025 which resulted in his first 1,000-yard season. Nabers should be back and it wouldn't surprise anyone if the Giants added another weapon on offense either in free agency or the draft. (Ohio State's Carnell Tate perhaps?). A return to his old short passing game is possible.

Davante Adams - For the first time in his career, Adams was NOT the best wide receiver on his team. That won't change in 2026 either. Puka Nacua was the target hog while Adams was the touchdown maker (14) this season, while only managing 60 receptions and 789 yards (lowest since 2015). It's hard to imagine he can continue to produce a touchdown every five receptions, though certainly not impossible if Matthew Stafford continues to play at an MVP level when he turns 38 in a couple of weeks.

George Pickens - Assuming Jerry Jones doesn't screw it up (see Micah Parsons negotiations), Pickens is in for another great season. He has a quarterback who can throw and does so frequently (404-of-600 for 4,552 and 30 touchdowns) and a receiver on the other side of the field that draws double coverage (CeeDee Lamb). Having dealt with less passers in Pittsburgh for his first three NFL season, I expect he will be happy to remain in Dallas. Pre-season he was WR 35 and finished WR5 (17.1 FPts/G). He might not finish quite that high, but should still be a top-10 receiver if he's wearing the "star" in 2026.

Parker Washington - Injuries to Hunter and BTJ led to the Jaguars looking elsewhere for pass catchers. They traded for one, but found one on their bench in former Penn Stater Washington. He likely helped a few fantasy owners win titles with 26.5 points in Week 16 and 19 more in Championship Week. I'm thinking Jacksonville will confine Hunter to defense when he returns from his knee injury and leave the pass catching to Washington, BTJ, Meyers and tight end Strange.

Quentin Johnston - Johnston still drops too many balls, but he became Justin Herbert’s favorite deep threat in 2025 averaging 14.4 yards-per catch. The most important question to answer for fantasy owners is whether 34-year-old Keenan Allen returns for a 14th season. If he hangs up his cleats, Johnston would be in for an increased workload. But even if the “old guy” returns, Johnston is starting to answer why he was a first-round selection in 2023 (no.21 overall) out of TCU. His WR32 finish is certainly repeatable and more is possible.