I have compared the preseason draft rankings and the post-season finishes by position (based on total fantasy points earned). The idea of this exercise is to determine the primary reason for large variances in our expectations and a player's 2025 production and whether it can help our expectations for 2026.

Looking at many of the results, I've divided each position category based on four conclusions:

1) WILL REBOUND: Underachieved expectations primarily due to injury, so I'm not holding these results against the player.

2) REDUCE EXPECTATIONS: Underachieved expectations due to poor play or outside factors and lowering future outlook.

3) RETURN TO PREVIOUS LEVELS: Overachieved expectations, usually for a one-time reason, therefore I'm expecting a “return to the mean” in 2026.

Running Backs

Will Rebound

Ashton Jeanty - Blame the media, not the running back. He underachieved only because his preseason hype was always going to be impossible to match. He was drafted to be the "next" Barry Sanders... and he still might be, but not until the team around him improves. I remember when O.J. Simpson first got to Buffalo and in his rookie season, his best runs were just getting back to the line of scrimmage. He didn't become great until the Bills OL became the "Electric Company" behind Joe DeLamielleure and Reggie McKenzie.

Bucky Irving - Irving missed seven games due to injury, but averaged almost the same as he did in 2024 when he was a wonderful rookie surprise by averaging 14.5 FPts/G. This season he averaged 14.1 FPts/G. I'm willing to give Irving the benefit of the doubt, though I'm a little concerned that Sean Tucker has become the "goal line guy." In 2025, four of Tucker's seven touchdowns were from one-yard out. If this trend continues into 2026, Irving's ceiling may be limited.

Reduce Expectations

Saquon Barkley - He was never going to be able to reproduce his record-setting 2024 totals (2,283 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns) as the "Rule of 370" doesn't yield to anyone. Usually, it's the running back breaking down, but in this case, it was his offensive line. Unless GM Howie Roseman improves the OL in free agency or the draft, I'm afraid this may be Barkley's new lower level of production. Particularly if RT Lane Johnson retires, then I'm significantly lowering my expectations.

Alvin Kamara - Does he even come back for another season after the disappointment of 2025 (131-471-1 and 33-186-0). His 3.6 ypc was the worst of his career, receiving yards per reception was the lowest of his career (5.6) and he again spent time on IR. He has one year on his contract, but it would not be surprising if the Saints draft a running back in Day 2. His days of being an RB1 are over as are his days on any of my rosters.

Kaleb Johnson - He was supposed to be the replace for Najee Harris as his preseason RB27 showed, but he never materialized. Instead, Kenneth Gainwell took the shared role with Jaylen Warren and Johnson barely played (29 touches over 10 games for just 78 yards). If UFA Gainwell returns to Pittsburgh, I see no path for Johnson to be fantasy-worthy.

Return to Previous Levels

Travis Etienne - In 2024, Etienne was a ghost, having disappeared from all fantasy radar screens following his 8.8 FPts/G season. This season, however, he became a beneficiary of improved quarterback play. He returned to being a 1,000-yard rusher, but his true value spiked with six receiving touchdowns. I'm not sure six touchdowns on 36 receptions is repeatable (previous high was one), therefore we must expect regression here. Meanwhile, rookie Bhayshul Tuten (five goal line touchdown runs) is likely to limit Etienne's ceiling. Etienne's 2026 should fall from his No.10 finish in 2025, but certainly not as low as his pre-season expectations, which was RB38..

James Cook - He had his detractors heading into the season which all said the same thing - "no way he gets close to the 18 touchdowns he scored in 2024." Well, they were right, he didn't reach that total, but when you combined his league-leading 1,621 rushing yards to 14 total touchdowns you end up with improved fantasy production (16.7 FPts/G in 2024 to 18.1 FPts/G in 2025). He finished sixth in total fantasy points and fantasy points-per-game despite not being a big part of the passing game. There will be a new head coach in Buffalo, but I would expect Cook's numbers are repeatable.

Javonte Williams - The former Denver Bronco, now three years removed from knee surgery, solved the Cowboys supposed running back problem right from the start after he scored twice in the season opener in Philadelphia. He produced double-digit fantasy points in 13 of 16 games. Given how dangerous the Cowboys passing game with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens (assuming he resigns with Dallas), Williams should have plenty of room to run and little competition for carries.

Quinshon Judkins - The Ohio State Buckeye rookie had an offseason of legal issues and contract negotiations, so it was reasonable that many were afraid to select him early. He was the RB53 on Draft Day, but as soon as he got on the field, he showed his value was much higher. He averaged 15.3 FPts/G over his first six starts, but then got bogged down by the inefficient Browns offense and finally a dislocated ankle and broken fibula. If Cleveland can solve their QB issues, 14-15 points-per-game is viable, making him a high-end RB2.