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The Answer to Who Wins Super Bowl LVII is Here

By Steve Schwarz | 2/9/23

It has been said many times, by many people, that “defense wins championships.” Well, I’m here to tell you that even in this era of offense, where all the rule changes have favored that side of the ball… it is still true.

Look at the results since Super Bowl 50. In every year, the Super Bowl winner gave up fewer points during the regular season than the runner-up.

And in six of the seven games, the team which gave up the fewest yards won. The only exception was the San Francisco 49ers in 2019, who gave up 1,085 yards fewer than the Kansas City Chiefs and still lost.

 Fewest Pts Allowed = Super Bowl Winner?
Season Winner Yds Pts Loser Yds Pts
2022 ? ?
2021 LAR 5863 372 CIN 5964 376
2020 TB 5234 355 KC 5733 362
2019 KC 5594 308 SF 4509 310
2018 NE 5746 325 LAR 5737 384
2017 PHI 4904 295 NE 5856 296
2016 NE 5223 250 ATL 5939 406
2015 DEN 4530 296 CAR 5167 308

So how does this defensive trend apply to the 2022 season and Super Bowl LVII?

Haason Reddick

The 2022 Philadelphia Eagles have given up fewer points and fewer yards than the 2022 Chiefs. The Eagles yielded 344 points and 5,125 yards this season while Kansas City allowed 369 points and 5,579 yards. I’d love to say this guarantees my boyhood favorite Eagles will win the Super Bowl, but I can’t. Because it was Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, of course, who beat the trend and the 49ers in 2019. Still, it’s trending in that direction.

You want a guarantee on who wins the Super Bowl this season… it’s the one who scores the most points.