Week 1 is in the books and there were both pleasant surprises and
unfortunate disappointments as there always is on the opening weekend.
But don’t go overboard from one week’s statistics. In
most cases, we need a larger sample side before we make drastic
changes. Because I can promise you Andy Dalton will not throw for
418 yards every game. And Sammy Watkins is unlikely to post 198
yards and three touchdowns again.
Although we are in the middle of hurricane season, only hot weather
should be a factor in Week 2 where at least eight games have an
early weather forecast of 80+ degrees.
“Never tell the truth to people who are not worthy
of it.” - Mark Twain
1) If you own the following quarterbacks you should be concerned;
Deshaun Watson, Kyler Murray, Andy Dalton, Mitchell Trubisky or
True. These five quarterbacks were sacked at least five times
in their season opener and hit a lot more. In particular, Watson
was sacked six times and threw his body around on a rushing touchdown
like he thinks he’s invincible. If you have these guys,
think about whether they can last 16 games and plan accordingly.
Perhaps trade him if offered enough in return. At least have a
handcuff or a backup plan when the starter inevitably goes down.
2) Julio Jones is the anti-Antonio Brown.
just signed an epic contract … the right way. He showed up every
day. He plays like a star, make that superstar. He conducts himself
as a positive representative of his team and sport that every
owner would want to have on his side. Just ask Arthur Blank. For
that, he was rewarded with a three-year extension worth $66 million
with $64 million guaranteed. Eat your heart out AB. If you have
Jones on your fantasy team you know by season’s end he’ll likely
rack up about 1,500 yards and 6-8 scores.
3) There is the New England Patriots management and 31 wannabes.
In this edition, the Patriots added Antonio
Brown without giving up the No.1 draft choice they offered
the Steelers last season and traded Demaryius
Thomas to the division-rival Jets for a sixth-round pick,
netting them one draft choice and a top-three wide receiver talent.
And knowing Bill Belichick as we do he will probably be able to
control AB … at least for this season. Is ring No.7 five months
4) Larry Fitzgerald looked like his old self.
Apparently he just needed a “real” quarterback and
OC who would throw him the ball downfield. Fitzgerald saw 13 targets
last Sunday, catching eight, for 113 yards and a touchdown, including
two 40+ yarders. If Murray can survive his subpar offensive line,
Fitz (preseason ADP 105.6) should end up being a huge bargain
this season. We will a lot know more after they play at Baltimore
in Week 2.
5) Two young tight ends stood out this weekend – T.J. Hockenson
and Darren Waller.
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his
own facts.” - Daniel Patrick Moynihan
1) Playing 100% of his team’s snaps is a good thing for
my running back.
In the short-term perhaps, but can Christian McCaffrey and Le’Veon
Bell play at a high level and play every down for 16 games? Expect
McCaffrey to want to re-negotiate his four-year, $17.2 million
contract. What a bargain he is for the Panthers and fantasy owners,
however, I prefer a head coach or OC that gives my guy a little
rest. If he runs 80-90% I’d feel better (As long as the
backup doesn’t look good).
2) Josh Jacobs outstanding debut is typical of Alabama running
Sorry no. The Raiders looked like a team trying to show they
are more than “AB fodder.” They played very well led
by Jacobs and Derek Carr. But Crimson Tide backs rarely get off
to good starts in the NFL. See below as a sampling. If they don’t
have an emotional letdown, the Chiefs’ defense is vulnerable
to the run and Jacobs should roll again.
3) Lamar Jackson’s right arm has suddenly turned into
Dan Marino circa 1984.
I don’t think so. Don’t overestimate Jackson’s
value from one game, particularly one game against the “tanking-for-Tua”
Miami Dolphins. Though he is on “pace” for 5,184 passing
yards and 80 touchdown passes the schedule says he can’t
play Miami 15 more times. I like what I saw of Jackson Sunday,
but until I see the “new” throwing Jackson through
at least eight more games I’m not convinced.
4) Just a bad day for Kerryon Johnson and Devonta Freeman …
nothing to fear here.
False. I’d be concerned if I were their fantasy owner.
Johnson saw just 57% of the Lions snaps (50-of-88) and C.J. Anderson
saw 30% (26 snaps) with Johnson seeing 16 rushing attempts and
Anderson 11. I thought Johnson would see a larger percentage in
Year 2, but apparently not and this was a game the Lions held
a big lead for the first three quarters. Freeman saw just 39-of-78
snaps in a blowout loss to Minnesota which could have been a factor
as the Falcons went three-receivers often. But be prepared to
make a change if this trend continues.
5) Gardner Minshew is a viable fantasy option.
Not buying it. Minshew went 22-of-25 for 275 yards and two scores
in his relief stint for injured Nick Foles. Both touchdown passes
came after the Chiefs had built a commanding 37-13 fourth-quarter
lead and were in prevent-defense mode. And the Chiefs’ pass
defense wasn’t exactly stellar last season yielding the
fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in 2018 (25.1
FPts/G). So this wasn’t much of a test. Houston and Tennessee
the next two weekends will tell us more and I’m betting
Mr. Minshew, a sixth-round pick from Washington State, crashes
to earth with a loud thud.