Because if they get in, the result can be utter devastation.

Too much? Perhaps. But depending on which round you miss on, one bad pick can absolutely alter your season and leave you wondering what went wrong.

The only thing more important than hitting on your early fantasy football picks is avoiding blatant misses. In an effort to help you do exactly that, let's put some wax in our ears, tie ourselves to the mast, and resist the following fantasy football busts for 2026.

2026 Fantasy Bust Snapshot

I opted to bypass Round 1 because I don't want to hand you fantasy busts I wouldn't actually avoid myself. I've also already broken down why Christian McCaffrey is one of my biggest fades this year, so the next logical candidate is Miami running back De'Von Achane.

On paper, Achane is a perfectly reasonable second-round pick. He's finished as the RB5 overall in each of the last two seasons, and even after missing time as a rookie, he still cracked the top 25.

There are mild concerns about Achane's size and durability, but I don't want to lean too heavily on those. He's actually stayed relatively healthy over the past two years. The much bigger concern is that he's entering a new offensive system on a team that projects to have one of the league's weaker offenses.

Miami has publicly promised to run the football more this season, and they may not have much choice. But asking a 191-pound back to hammer into defenders 20-plus times per game isn't a recipe for success. Achane needs his pass-catching role to remain intact, and his trademark explosiveness and efficiency can't disappear.

Those realities face two legitimate threats:

• Malik Willis has historically been reluctant to check the ball down to running backs.
  
  
• Achane has struggled when forced to play with poor quarterback play.

The first domino is Willis' style of play. Maybe Miami's coaching staff changes those tendencies -- and to be fair, the sample size is small -- but everything we've seen suggests Willis would rather take off and run or push the ball downfield. Checking the ball down simply hasn't been part of his game.

That doesn't mean Miami can't line Achane up as more of a true receiver. In fact, they may have to. But even if they do, defenses are likely to key on him regardless of how he's deployed. His talent is good enough to overcome that, but it's still a significant red flag.

Then there's the lingering shoulder issue that surfaced earlier this offseason. It's not the primary reason I'm fading Achane, but it's never encouraging to hear about shoulder concerns for a featured running back.

Dr. Vic Troha breaks down the latest injury update on Devon Achane ��

“He’s had shoulder injuries—an AC joint sprain, technically. Those are really lingering issues, especially for running backs. Part of the reason is because it’s a joint that gets compressed every time you hit… pic.twitter.com/pCLs4JrEmg

— Check the Mic with Steve Palazzolo & Sam Monson (@CTM_Show) July 24, 2026

I'm not telling you to avoid Achane solely because of his shoulder, a downgrade at quarterback, or changes to Miami's offensive scheme. But when you combine all of those factors, you're taking on a lot of risk for an early second-round pick.

Can Achane overcome the mounting obstacles in what could be a bottom-three offense? Absolutely. But there are safer players available in the same range, and I don't think you need to assume this much risk.

WR George Pickens, Dallas Cowboys

Pickens was outstanding last season. He finally broke out the way his talent always suggested he could, finishing as the WR5 overall after posting a gaudy 93-1,429-9 line.

He'll also have plenty of motivation entering a contract year with Dallas. That's the good news.

The concern is that the Cowboys may not be quite as pass-heavy in 2026. Their defense appears significantly improved, and if that proves true, Dallas may simply not need to throw the ball as often.

That's only a minor concern, though.

The bigger question is whether Pickens will see enough volume to justify his draft cost. After all, he wasn't nearly as productive when CeeDee Lamb was healthy as he was while Lamb was sidelined.

George Pickens with healthy CeeDee Lamb (Weeks 1-2):

11.9 PPG (WR34)

Pickens with Lamb OUT (Weeks 3-6):

24.2 PPG (WR1)

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) July 21, 2026

Down the stretch, once Lamb returned, Pickens topped 12 fantasy points just once over his final five games.

That isn't a death sentence, but what feels more likely? Pickens suddenly becoming Dallas' No. 1 receiver in a contract year, or a still-prime Lamb reclaiming his usual target dominance?

I'm still betting on CeeDee Lamb, which naturally has me fading Pickens at his current price.

RB Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Achane and McCaffrey aren't the only early-round running backs carrying significant risk. Another player I'm concerned about is Bucky Irving, and one of the biggest reasons is the same: a shoulder injury.

Shoulder injuries are concerning for any running back. They're even more concerning for smaller backs, where durability questions can quickly turn into efficiency concerns and workload limitations -- even when they're active.

This isn't just speculation. Every move Tampa Bay has made suggests Irving's workload could shrink.

After battling injuries throughout 2025, Irving's efficiency plummeted from 5.4 yards per carry as a rookie to just 3.4 in his second season.

The Buccaneers responded by signing Kenny Gainwell in free agency. That addition threatens Irving's receiving workload and could also siphon away early-down touches.

To recap: Irving's efficiency cratered, he's entering the season less than 100 percent healthy, Tampa Bay added legitimate competition, and there are already whispers of a reduced workload.

That's not exactly the profile I'm looking for in a third-round pick.

WR Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers

Sometimes a fantasy bust isn't about talent. That's true for every player on this list. My concerns revolve around situation, health, or role -- not ability.

Role certainly isn't the issue for Tetairoa McMillan. He drew 122 targets as a rookie and turned them into a strong 70-1,014-7 stat line, finishing as the WR16 overall.

That's an outstanding rookie season. Considering Tet's size, athleticism, and projected role, it's easy to get swept up in his upside. Carolina has even talked openly about moving him into the slot more often to create easier touches.

Again, I love the talent. I like the role, too.

What I don't love is that McMillan's ceiling remains tied to Bryce Young's development.

Maybe Young takes another major step forward and both players enjoy monster seasons. That's certainly possible. But Carolina has consistently tried to protect its quarterback, throwing the ball on just 55% of its offensive plays last season (20th in the NFL). The Panthers are likely to remain balanced in 2026, which naturally limits McMillan's target ceiling.

Then there's the efficiency concern. Young ranked 13th in bad throws last season, and his catchable pass rate was an even bigger problem at just 71.9%, ranking 27th among qualifying quarterbacks.

I like Tet. I just don't love the situation.

If you want to bet on talent and projected volume in the fourth round, you could do much worse. But you can also pivot to a similarly talented receiver in a more stable offensive environment.

Avoiding Fantasy Football Busts in 2026

The best way to avoid fantasy busts is to identify risk and compare each player to the alternatives available in the same draft range. It's also important to evaluate the context surrounding a player's production rather than simply chasing last year's fantasy finish.

Achane remains one of the league's most explosive per-touch backs, but he's dealing with a quarterback downgrade and an offense that could take a significant step backward.

Pickens is being drafted as though he'll repeat last year's production despite sharing targets with CeeDee Lamb. Irving enters the season with injury concerns, added competition, and the possibility of a reduced workload. McMillan has star potential, but his fantasy ceiling is still tied to an inconsistent passing offense.

Every player on this list has a realistic path to making me look foolish. That's the nature of fantasy football.

The goal isn't to predict failure with certainty. It's to recognize where the risk outweighs the reward and identify players capable of delivering similar -- or even better -- production with fewer question marks.