* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For running backs, a player needs to be a
three-down option as well as a realistic threat for 1,000 rushing
yards and 500 receiving yards to be a candidate for a perfect
grade. Positional scarcity at the pro level is also a part of
the equation.
Positives
Fearless inside runner who is more north-south than
a back of his size typically is.
Excels on outside zone runs; anticipates the hole well,
plants his foot and explodes in a split second.
Three-down back potential; he often runs the way a 215-
to 220-pound back usually does; may only need to add a bit more
lower-body muscle to be a much more consistent yards-after-contact
producer.
Film against Purdue (2024) highlighted his ability to
line up across the formation and serve as a matchup nightmare.
Well-rounded weapon in the passing game; very good hands
(45 catches versus two drops over the last two seasons) and
consistently stymies his man with good technique and effort
in pass pro.
Two fumbles (zero lost) on 667 career touches.
Negatives
Keeps churning his legs upon contact but lacks the
lower-body strength to win the battle at the point of contact
consistently.
More of a one-cut back than one who can stop on a dime
and change direction laterally, which could make life difficult
in the NFL for a back of size on expected running downs.
His abilities as a receiver and blocker will keep him
on the field on passing downs, but he is unlikely to handle
much short-yardage work; likely will need to be part of a committee.
Too many instances of him running into the back of his
blockers.
Proved capable of handling heavy workloads but recorded
19 or more touches in a game only 12 times in 47 games; missed
eight games during sophomore and junior seasons with foot and
rib injuries.
Bottom Line
For the upside case of what Henderson can be in the NFL, watch
how he was used and how well he ran against Purdue last season.
He was used in the slot and out wide (even ran a beautiful stutter-and-go
for a 32-yard gain). He ran with power and displayed above-average
contact balance. The problem with using that game to project him
as a NFL player was Purdue finished 1-11 and went winless in the
Big Ten. In just about every meaningful game, Henderson did not
run with great power and was tripped up on first contact a bit
too often. His "superpowers" were too boom-or-bust.
Even his work in the passing game was limited to mostly screens
and swings, which did not do a great job of maximizing his talents
in that area. Needless to say, Henderson's highly efficient final
college season could have been even better. However, some of his
earlier film (2021-23) revealed a player who could be effective
in short-yardage situations, which has to account for something.
It is unlikely he got worse in that area and more likely he was
a victim of relatively small sample size.
While it remains to be seen what version of Henderson the NFL
will get, it also seems reasonable to assume teams will try to
use him in the same way that the Lions utilize Jahmyr Gibbs. Henderson
is not quite in that class, but he should have no issue making
an instant impact as a moveable chess piece. The former five-star
recruit never handled more than 210 touches in a season (as a
freshman in 2021), so logic would suggest he will begin his professional
career as a complementary back who might usually be capped at
12 or 13 touches most games. He possesses the necessary mindset
and passing-game skills to be a featured back, but he will need
to do a better job of picking yards after contact to become one.
An Aaron Jones career arc feels about right for him, especially
from an efficiency perspective.
Doug Orth has written for FFToday since 2006 and joined the
Fantasy Points website before the start of the 2024 season. He is
also a highly successful high-stakes player who often appears as
a guest analyst on Sirius XM. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association. Please check out his new podcast with
JJ Wenner called "The All-Out Blitz."
