DraftKings

With DraftKings' Showdown all that remains in DFS this week, I will use the rest of my time to provide my readers with the kind of analysis one should expect in advance of the biggest game of the year. Much as I did in previous years, I included each player's captain and flex prices. (Each position is sorted by my DraftKings' projected point total.)

Key for quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and tight ends:
P Yds - Passing Yards
P TD - Passing Touchdowns
INT - Interceptions
Ru Yds - Rushing Yards
Ru TD - Rushing Touchdowns
Rec Yds - Receiving Yards
Rec TD - Receiving Touchdowns
Rec - Receptions

If we use his last four games as a barometer for the "new" Darnold, it reveals a quarterback who is completing 70.8 percent of his passes (67.2 through his first 16 games) in part because he is holding the ball longer (2.48 seconds before versus 2.8 seconds now) and throwing shorter (8.7 aDOT versus 7.7). One way to interpret that information would be that he is more of a "see-it-and-throw-it" quarterback than he was earlier in the year. I think the more correct answer is that he now understands his defense will probably erase any minor negative play he makes (i.e., sack) and knows the running game will pick him up if he simply keeps the ball out of harm's way (i.e., fumble or interception). There is a certain peace of mind that comes along with knowing the weight of the world is not on your shoulders as a quarterback, which is probably the very thing that led to his demise at each of his previous stops (specifically the Jets and Panthers).

I don't think there is any question that New England will be the best defense that Seattle has faced since Darnold started playing smarter ball following the team's Week 16 comeback win over the Rams. Much as was the case following the Seahawks' most recent victory, Darnold will need to be a primary reason why they win this game as well since the Patriots have shut down about every rushing attack they have faced with DT Milton Williams in the lineup.

Patriots - There is a world where Seattle does not need Darnold to be at his best to win this game. I am not sure the same can be said for New England and Drake Maye. The Patriots are going to need the regular-season version of their second-year signal-caller and not the playoff version - the one that has taken 15 sacks, thrown two interceptions and lost three of his six fumbles.

What does the regular-season version look like statistically? The league MVP runner-up completed 72 percent of his passes, averaged nearly nine yards per attempt and 258.5 yards per game, posted a 3.9:1 TD-to-INT ratio and attempted a deep throw on 12.4 percent of his pass attempts. The playoff version is completing 56 percent of his throws, averaging 6.9 YPA and 178 yards per game, posting a 2:1 TD-to-INT ratio and averaging a deep throw on 19.5 percent of his pass attempts.

There is no question small sample size and the snow game in Denver are contributing to some of the difference between the two versions, but I would also ask readers to consider that the Patriots only played four games against playoff teams during the regular season (only one of which happened after Week 5). In those four contests, he averaged 224.8 yards passing and 27.8 yards rushing and totaled seven touchdowns (three rushing). He admittedly hasn't caught much of a break during this postseason in facing the strong defenses of the Chargers, Texans and Broncos, but the problem for him is that the Seahawks are in the same class as those teams defensively at the very least.

Maye's production has undoubtedly suffered because of the quality of defenses he has faced this postseason. It has also suffered because the Patriots have not needed him to be Superman with their defense holding their opponents to an average of 8.7 points. With that said, only one of those teams had a healthy(-ish) offensive line and starting quarterback. The Patriots have been extremely lucky facing the teams they did WHEN they faced them. New England will likely do a much better job (than the 49ers and Rams) of keeping Seattle's offense in check, but that will only happen if Maye limits the mistakes and negative plays. Consider for a minute that the Patriots have played with a lead for most of their playoff run and have still allowed 15 sacks. How ugly could this get for the Patriots if they are forced to throw more often than the 25.7 times they have through three playoff games?

Seahawks - One of the things I don't do nearly often enough is look at how well a runner operates behind zone blocking versus man/gap blocking. It would appear Seattle did not crunch the numbers during the regular season either (or at least care about the results). Across 18 regular-season games, Kenneth Walker ran 126 times behind zone blocking and 90 behind a gap scheme. (Five of his runs fell into a miscellaneous category.) Despite being considered a zone-blocking enthusiast, OC Klint Kubiak called those runs for Walker on only 57 percent of his rush attempts. On those runs, he averaged five yards per carry. On the man/gap runs, his average was 4.17. With that kind of disparity, one would expect a bigger variance than 57:41 (percentage of zone versus man runs). It has been a much different story during the postseason. In two playoff games, Walker has 31 zone runs versus only seven gap runs, and the results have been significantly different. While Walker's zone proficiency has remained roughly the same (5.1 YPC), his gap success has not (2.86). As one might expect, there is a similar gap in his actual success rate (67.7 percent in zone, 28.6 percent in gap).

I thought it would be interesting to compare Walker's metrics to those of Zach Charbonnet during the regular season, just to see if Kubiak used Charbonnet - whose profile is much more of a back who thrives in a gap scheme - in a different way. The result might surprise you. Charbonnet ran significantly more zone (64.7 percent) than gap (32.6 percent). He was slightly more efficient as a gap runner (4.17 versus 3.87 YPC), but 11 of his 12 rushing touchdowns came as a zone runner. Considering how often his touchdowns were near the end zone, I would chalk most of the difference in yards per carry to that.

One reason why we should not expect much out of Walker as a runner in the Super Bowl is how good New England has been at stopping the run this postseason, particularly against zone runs. The Patriots' success in stuffing the run has depended mostly on the presence of DT Milton Williams. In the 15 games he has played, the Patriots have allowed 3.65 yards per carry, including 3.1 versus zone runs. In the five games he missed, New England surrendered five yards per carry, including 3.85 against zone. (They really struggled against gap scheme runs during his absence, yielding 5.51 YPC). The difference in opponents' success with and without Williams is not a coincidence; his ability to command (and defeat) double teams makes a huge difference.

Patriots - From Week 10 to Week 15, only Jahmyr Gibbs and De'Von Achane were more productive on a per-game basis in fantasy than TreVeyon Henderson. His averages over that time: 15.2 carries, 98 rushing yards, 2.8 catches, 16.2 receiving yards and 1.8 total touchdowns. In the six games since: 10.1 carries, 32.5 rushing yards, 0.5 catches, 2.7 receiving yards and 0.3 total touchdowns. In reality, the latter marks have been greatly inflated by his work during garbage time in a Week 17 win (19 carries for 82 yards).

The point of this statistical breakdown is simple: Henderson has been a virtual non-factor for over a month following a five-game stretch during which he was as productive as any running back in the league. Did he hit the rookie wall? Has he lost confidence because the explosive runs have disappeared? While I think the real answer lies in New England's preference to keep players in certain roles (Henderson in the James White/Kevin Faulk/Shane Vereen role, in this case), the fact of the matter is the Patriots have shown little interest in making him an important part of the offense again.

To his credit, Rhamondre Stevenson has not given New England much of a reason to go away from him. The AFC Championship win over the Broncos marked the first time since Stevenson's return from a foot injury that he did not produce at least one 20-plus yard run or catch in a game. (Henderson has none over that same six-game stretch.) The difference in production between the two backs over those six games is startling:

The AFC Championship was the first time since Stevenson's return that there was a noticeable difference in touches between the two backs, so it would likely be wrong to suggest the rookie has become a true backup. Henderson's inactivity against Denver also likely came as a result of OC Josh McDaniels reaching the logical conclusion that the rookie's speed and quickness were probably going to be neutralized by the playing conditions. All of this is to say that Henderson could easily handle 10 or more touches against the Seahawks. The problem is he hasn't given the Patriots much of a reason to believe an explosive play is coming and the Seahawks have allowed a league-low 2.1 percent of the rush attempts they have faced to go for more than 15 yards this season (including the playoffs). Only 1.9 percent of the runs Seattle has faced have ended up in the end zone. In other words, the odds are very much against New England breaking a long run or scoring a rushing touchdown.

Seahawks - Without question, the most interesting aspect of the Super Bowl this weekend will be how the Patriots decide to defend Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Under former HC Bill Belichick, I think the approach would have been relatively simple: let their second-best corner (Carlton Davis) travel with him anytime he lines up on the perimeter, give him safety help and let Christian Gonzalez lock down the other side of the field. Under HC Mike Vrabel and interim DC Zak Kuhr, that plan of attack seems unlikely for multiple reasons - the main one being how well Davis and slot CB Marcus Jones have been playing of late.

That fact does not, however, make it any less important that New England gives its cornerbacks safety help against JSN whenever possible; this is not a game the Patriots should hope for the best when it comes to going one-on-one with JSN. He is the key to this game. If New England can stifle him, it should be able to contain the running game as it has most of the season when Milton Williams has been available. At that point, the Seahawks would have to rely on Cooper Kupp, Rashid Shaheed and AJ Barner to carry the offense. Neither team may get to 20 points in this contest, but Seattle will not sniff that total if the Patriots contain Smith-Njigba.

That means OC Klint Kubiak should strongly consider using JSN out of the slot at least as often as he has recently (season-high 41 percent slot usage in the NFC Championship and 40 percent in Week 18). The reason for this is that not only is Jones the Patriots' weakest (and smallest) link in the secondary, but also because it is often the most difficult spot for a safety to provide help against a receiver. That is especially the case when there is a legitimate field-stretcher on the field with him, which is why Shaheed remains an important part of the offense even though he rarely sees a target. While Kupp's heavier involvement in the playoffs has been a nice development for the Seahawks, a strong argument can be made that he is easily the third-most important receiver for Seattle this week. It is hard to imagine a scenario in which he plays a big hand in the outcome of this game, mostly because he will likely line up across from Gonzalez or Davis more often than any other Seattle receiver. In a best-case scenario, I think Kupp catches maybe six short passes.

One other thing to consider is how aggressive the Patriots' defense has been during the playoffs: New England has brought an extra rusher on 40 percent of drop-backs during the postseason - up from 27 percent during the regular season, according to Tru Media. A continuation of that trend in the Super Bowl likely means JSN or Shaheed - if not both on certain occasions - will only have to beat one defender when the Patriots blitz.

Patriots - Much in the same way that Smith-Njigba's slot usage will likely play a big role in the outcome in this contest, how often Stefon Diggs lines up inside could have a similar effect. New England OC Josh McDaniels has committed to keeping Diggs in the slot more often over the second half of the season, typically doing so at least 50 percent of the time. While it is difficult to say any of the Seahawks' secondary players are a good matchup, New England probably likes its chances if/when Diggs lines up across from 6-3, 227-pound Nick Emmanwori, who is a ridiculous athlete for his size but will be playing on a bum ankle. Perhaps Seattle opts for a more traditional matchup in Devon Witherspoon, but the likelihood is that both players will play about half of the time against Diggs in the slot.

The primary difference between the Seahawks and JSN and the Patriots and Diggs is that Diggs' involvement has been very hit or miss for most of the season. As recently as Week 16 and Week 17, he caught 15 of 16 targets for 239 yards and a touchdown. In the four games since, he has combined for a 14-116-1 line on 20 targets. Seattle has occasionally leaked production to the slot this season, but it has done a much better job of correcting that during the playoffs. The Seahawks' preferred Cover 3 defense could also limit how often they get hurt by Diggs since the natural design of the defense puts in an extra safety closer to the box.

One can make the argument that Kayshon Boutte and Mack Hollins bring a bit more to the table than Kupp and Shaheed, but they seem to do most of their damage downfield - something that New England won't get to test very often if its offensive line doesn't hold up better than it has during the playoffs. I am not sure that Boutte and/or Hollins are capable of getting open very often against Seattle's corners unless Drake Maye consistently extends the play and makes some magic happen out of the pocket.

Does Barner warrant much fantasy consideration in this game, though? Not really. Dawson Knox (3-37-2) is the only tight end to do much of anything of consequence against New England since Week 10. Barner has played an important role in Seattle's passing attack only twice during the team's nine-game winning streak. One could argue that his most meaningful role - outside of what he does as a blocker in the run game - will be if/when they use him on the "barnyard" at the goal line.

The Patriots mix up their defensive schemes as well as any team, utilizing man coverage 28 percent of the time while also being one of the few teams to play four different kinds of defense (Cover 1, Cover 2, Cover 3 and Cover 4) on at least 17 percent of snaps. In short, there is not much reason to believe Barner will become a big part of the offense in this game unless New England sells out to stop Jaxon Smith-Njigba (which is a real possibility I detailed above). With that said, I don't think the Patriots can (or will) fully commit to that bit and will probably allow JSN to operate independent of Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis - likely with safety help in both cases - in the slot often enough that OC Klint Kubiak will not have to get overly creative to keep his top receiver highly involved.

Patriots - The areas that opponents have consistently attacked this year when facing Seattle are the flats and within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage over the middle of the field. How do I know that? The Seahawks surrendered a league-high 97 catches to running backs (thanks, Christian McCaffrey) and ranked fifth in most receptions allowed to tight ends during the regular season (thanks, Trey McBride). Sometimes defenses allow a certain position to be productive because they lack the personnel to defend it. In other cases (as was the case for the Seahawks in 2025), secondary pass-catching positions such as running backs and tight ends are productive because the defense is so good at slowing down the primary threats at receiver.

New England has an underrated receiving corps, but I would stop short of saying the Patriots can honestly expect Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte and Mack Hollins to force Seattle out of its preferred Cover 3 shell (30.1 percent). No New England player has been more productive against Cover 3 this season than Hunter Henry, who led the team with 465 yards receiving and three touchdowns. To put those numbers in some perspective, 54.7 percent of Henry's receiving yards for the season came against a coverage that New England saw just over a third of the time (33.8 percent). For anyone brave enough to bet on a Patriots offensive player having a good game, the odds greatly favor it being a tight end.

The problem with betting on Henry is something I mentioned just a bit ago: Seattle's "weakness" against tight ends this season is more about its defense forcing the action to that position more than it is about the Seahawks being unable to defend them. S Julian Love finished the season as PFF's top graded safety in coverage (min. 300 coverage snaps), while rookie S/CB Nick Emmanwori ranked 14th. (Things could change slightly if Emmanwori's ankle injury during Wednesday's practice turns out to be serious.) When we consider how often Drake Maye has been under pressure this season (43 percent of drop-backs), how often Seattle creates pressure on a quarterback (38.3) and how many times Maye has been sacked (62, including 15 during the playoffs), it makes sense that Henry and Austin Hooper will be frequent targets because they will need to be.

Key for defense/special teams units:
Bonus - Points allowed bonus for DraftKings
TD - Defensive/return touchdowns

SUMMARY

Points will be at a premium in this game. If these two teams played 10 times, they might combine for more than 40 points twice. Both defenses are ahead of the offenses. Seattle has not given up more than 16 points to a non-Rams opponent since Week 12. New England has not allowed more than 16 points in five straight. If there is a prop available that allows people to bet on more field goals than touchdowns, I would drop some money on that in a heartbeat. I might bet even if the prop was twice as many field goals as touchdowns.

While the Seahawks are probably the best (and healthiest) offense the Patriots have faced over that stretch, they are not exactly a juggernaut. If New England's run defense continues to play well and the Patriots find a way to minimize JSN, then the Seahawks' offense becomes ordinary very quickly. My problem with New England this weekend is relatively straightforward: the defense has been on point throughout the postseason, allowing an average of 209.7 total yards to three playoff-caliber (albeit highly flawed) offenses. The Patriots have also forced EIGHT turnovers. Despite the extra possessions and short fields, the most points the offense has scored in any game is 21. (They ran an interception back for a touchdown against the Texans to get to 28.)

The Patriots' path to winning this game likely involves them exploiting the C-RG combination of Jalen Sundell and Anthony Bradford regularly. A defensive score would like be enough to tip the balance as well. In the unlikely scenario that Seattle does not maintain pass-rush integrity and allows him to escape the pocket, Drake Maye could put the offense on his back from time to time as a runner.

As for Seattle, its ability to protect the ball will be paramount. New England won all 10 games in which it enjoyed a positive turnover margin this season. Naturally, the key variable here is Sam Darnold. While he could revert to his pre-Minnesota form at any moment, he has also valued the ball for long enough that it seems unlikely he will fall apart in this one. Kenneth Walker does not need to be a difference-maker in this one, but he needs to run well enough to make sure New England cannot devote all of its attention to Smith-Njigba. Last but not least, the run defense needs to play like the third-ranked unit it is, so the back seven can focus on limiting Maye as a runner and make him uncomfortable as a passer.

Prediction: Seahawks 16, Patriots 13