* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For receivers, a player needs to be a realistic
threat for 70 catches and 1,000 receiving yards at some point
early in their career to be a candidate for a perfect grade. Positional
scarcity at the pro level is also a part of the equation.
Positives
Multifaceted offensive weapon/chess piece who was
used in a somewhat similar way to how San Francisco utilized
Deebo Samuel; handled 34 carries for 234 yards and four touchdowns
during his three-year college career.
Lethal in the open field; can start and stop on a dime,
create his own yards and make something out of nothing (forced
a missed tackle on 32 of 66 receptions in 2024).
His 2023 film revealed a receiver with superb ball-tracking
and contested-catch ability.
Can serve as his team's sparkplug with his willingness
to take the fight to the defense after the catch.
Production dropped off a cliff from 2023 to 2024;
how much of it was his injuries or injuries to his quarterback
(fellow NFL Draft classmate Brady Cook missed two games) and
how much of it was playing on the perimeter more often?
Moments of separation were hard to find on film despite
speed and shiftiness.
Worked almost exclusively from the slot and generated a
large percentage of his production on two routes (slot fades
and screens); almost three-quarters of his career catches were
targeted inside 10 yards.
Has so much confidence in his elusiveness that he attempts
to reverse field too often.
Struggled with drops (career 6.8 percent drop rate,
although less than five percent in each of his last two seasons),
did not do the best job of working back to his quarterback and
was inconsistent in finishing routes over the middle of the
field.
Flagged three times for unsportsmanlike/unnecessary roughness
penalties in 2024, including twice against Boston College -
here and here
- and once against
Arkansas.
Bottom Line
Burden's production and profile raise the age-old
question: was he limited to a handful of routes because the coaches
knew he was not very good at the others or did they scheme him
touches because Missouri believed in him so much as a space player?
His 2023 film suggested the latter. His 2024 suggested the former
AND potentially revealed a player who either was not happy about
his role or had an attitude issue of some sort. The former five-star
recruit may be the closest thing to Percy Harvin who has entered
the draft in years, which could be considered a good and bad thing.
When healthy, Harvin was a dynamic player in space that defenses
had to game plan for even if they knew he was not the primary
option in the passing game because he could score from anywhere
as a receiver or runner. Unlike Harvin, Burden's 2023 film showed
he could be more than just a "manufactured-touch guy."
Cook and "LB3" connected on a handful of deep shots,
which all but disappeared in 2024.
More bad news: only 333 of his 1,888 receiving yards in 2023
and 2024 occurred when he lined up out wide. He also had just
55 catches when targeted five yards or more beyond the line of
scrimmage over that same span. Does that mean he is a slot-only
player? Not necessarily. Burden has the quickness and strength
to get open at will and make defenders look silly after the catch
as a "normal" receiver. As we have learned over the
years with running backs and catching the ball, just because a
running back did not have many catches in college does not mean
he is unable to do it. Similarly, all we can say with certainty
about Burden's ability to be something more than a primary slot
is that he did not get a chance to show it very often relative
to most receivers. It also seemed like he was less willing to
go over the middle of the field in 2024. Combined with the aforementioned
penalties, it is fair to wonder if he was frustrated, bored or
just ready to move onto the NFL by around midseason. To be clear,
ability is not an issue for him. It is the lack of evidence of
him being something more than a movable chess piece. As such,
the expectation for him early in his pro career should be as a
primary slot who doubles as a punt returner. Eventually, he should
become a very capable "Z" - assuming he disproves the
concerns about winning as an outside receiver.
Predict the top ten picks of the NFL Draft for a chance
to win $100 and FFToday prizes. Enter
our NFL Draft Contest now. Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and joined the
Fantasy Points website before the start of the 2024 season. He is
also a highly successful high-stakes player who often appears as
a guest analyst on Sirius XM. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association. Please check him out on "The Football
Diehards" podcast with co-host JJ Wenner.
