Sometime between the end of the preseason and the first week of the season, fantasy managers and analysts alike shift gears from not caring one iota about their players' matchups to making it their primary consideration when setting about 70 percent of their lineup. A tough three- or four-game stretch for a player at the beginning or end of the season should not surprise anyone who calls watching or analyzing football their job, yet many are shocked to learn some of their players open the season with three of their first five or six games against likely top 10 pass or rush defenses.

THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF FANTASY ANALYSTS DO NOT CONSIDER DEFENSIVE MATCHUPS WHEN CREATING PROJECTIONS.

There is a distinct reason I do this year after year (and I think it has been instrumental in why I have yet to lose money in any single year since I began playing in money leagues 25 years ago): it matters.

Defense may not matter as much as it used to, but it is a mistake not to account for it at all. Doing so suggests a belief that NFL games are like seven-on-seven drills. I realized as early as 2004 that I did not like the idea of my players having to face the Ravens or the Steelers, especially during the fantasy playoffs. Certainly, my approach has evolved significantly from that initial premise, but I think my track record of success speaks for itself and suggests there is substantial value in putting some weight into "the matchup." The key is giving potential matchups the proper amount of weight to a player's evaluation. By itself, a matchup will not transform an every-week RB3 into an RB1 or turn a perennial WR1 into a bench option, but it is helpful for fantasy managers trying to find weekly and even season-long values and avoid potential busts.

That brings us to our focus for the second straight week. (Here is last week's submission with AFC teams.) With defenses operating out of sub-packages (nickel, dime, quarter, etc.) around 75 percent of the time in today's game, it makes sense to use their likely sub-package personnel as the basis for matchup analysis. Furthermore, it helps to have an understanding of how each veteran defensive player who will be playing in those packages graded out and/or performed last year. With the help of sites like Pro Football Focus and Pro Football Reference, we can do that.

Defense is a team endeavor, so the process is never as easy as spotting a player with a weakness and having an offense exploit that matchup repeatedly. An important part of coaching in any sport is the ability to maximize players' strengths and mask their weaknesses; players either will get help from the scheme or be benched if they continue to struggle. Nevertheless, the goal of any good offense is to isolate the weak link in the passing defense as often as possible or take advantage of what may be a "soft" run defense (assuming that matches up with the run-blocking ability of the offensive line). It is also important to understand that no defender lines up across any offensive player on every play, so we are playing odds here as opposed to dealing with virtual certainties (i.e., the few shadow cornerbacks that exist usually only "shadow" about 50-60 percent of the time).

The color-coding in this two-part series is based on last year only because we have no information about this season. Last year's color codes help set the stage for this year. Film analysis and advanced analytics help us predict what may happen.

Each team table below will contain more than 11 players. Projected starters will have projected grades next to their ages, but the rotational players will not because I want the final projected scores (coverage, pass rush and run defense) for each team to reflect the defenders logging the most snaps. Much as I summarized specialty areas for the offensive line piece two weeks ago, I will rank each team in terms of projected coverage, pass rush and run defense scores below.

The purpose of this article is simple, even if the execution of it is not: attempting to identify what defenders present fantasy owners with an opportunity for success. There is a heavy amount of subjectivity that goes into my color-coding matchups in advance of the Big Board. This process reduces most of that and gives readers a look under the hood, so to speak.

Key:

Green box - Player graded 80 or higher in that particular discipline per PFF (100-point scale)
Blue box - Player graded between 70 or 79.9 in that particular discipline
Yellow box - Player graded between 60 or 69.9 in that particular discipline
Red box - Player graded 59.9 or lower in that particular discipline
Black box - Player did not log a snap in the NFL snap or the discipline does not apply to his position

Italic (player name) - Likely (but potentially important) rotational player
# - Rookie
- Currently injured

25 Cov - Projected 2025 coverage grade
25 Run - Projected 2025 run defense grade
Grades - Coverage (Cov) and run defense (Run D)

****All personnel stats courtesy of Ryan Weisman. Check his work out here. All grades courtesy of Pro Football Focus. ****

Run: The Cardinals finished 20th against the run and in a tie for 23rd in yards allowed per carry (4.6), but most of the reasons for that performance are no longer with the team or were injured most of the season. The mere return of ageless wonder Campbell to the desert should make Arizona at least a league-average run-stopping unit. Tomlinson is also better against the run than just about anyone the Cardinals had up front last season. Wilson and Davis-Gaither may not be game-changers behind them, but their jobs will be made unmeasurably easier in 2025 by the fact that HC Jonathan Gannon is trying hard to emulate the defensive line model that benefited him during his time with the Eagles.

Who to target: Rookie corners usually need some time to adapt to the NFL before they become feared, and that should be the expectation for Johnson. The Cardinals caught a huge break by having him fall into their lap at pick No. 47. He should end up being the best corner in Arizona since at least Byron Murphy when he adapts to the pro game, which may not take long. With that said, Johnson and Melton figure to be picked on relentlessly for at least the first month of the season. Both men should be helped immensely by the Cardinals' vastly improved pass rush, however.

Who to avoid: Williams was a revelation in the slot in 2024. He is not a must-avoid when discussing fantasy ramifications for receivers, although a catch rate allowed of 58.3 percent is quite impressive for a slot corner. Arizona has been a tough matchup for tight ends for most of the last few years in part because Baker remains one of the best safeties in the game.

Run: Atlanta ranked about league average in most major rush defense categories, which should be considered a small miracle considering the relative lack of girth the team had up front. Losing Grady Jarrett to the Bears will not help the cause against the run or the pass, but at least the Falcons were prepared for his departure after drafting Orhorhoro and Dorlus last year. Nevertheless, Atlanta is taking a chance by asking Onyemata to be the most stout run defender the team has up front for one more season. If the Falcons can overcome their lack of size on the defensive line again, their linebackers are good enough to keep Atlanta in the middle of the pack in terms of rush defense.

Who to target: Hughes is coming off one of his best seasons as a pro, but 2024 was so far out of character for him that teams will probably not hesitate to target him again. Phillips could (and probably should) easily bump him from the lineup at some point this season.

Who to avoid: Terrell seems to run a little hot-and-cold from year to year when it comes to being a dominant corner. Nevertheless, he should not be considered a good matchup for receivers most of the time. The elite wideouts in the league typically seem to be unaffected by his coverage, but fantasy managers should downgrade their receivers about 90 percent of the time he is not facing the Ja'Marr Chases or Justin Jeffersons of the world. Bates remains one of the best in the business. If the Falcons do the smart thing and let him play center field (as opposed to switching the responsibility like he did last year with Justin Simmons), then tight ends should be expected to struggle against Atlanta.

DC: Ejiro Evero (third year)

Run: One man does not a defense make, but the loss of Brown in Week 1 set the stage for the Panthers to have one of the worst rush defenses in league history. Simply getting a full season out of the 27-year-old should be enough to make Carolina respectable against the run again. Bobby Brown III should also be a significant upgrade on Tuttle. The team parted with long-time standout LB Shaq Thompson in the offseason after consecutive injury-shortened seasons and will move forward with Jewell and Wallace. Neither man stood much of a chance behind Carolina's line without Derrick Brown a year ago. While Wallace should improve simply because he is no longer a rookie, Jewell should get a chance to stand out now with more protection from his line.

Who to target: Jackson's grade suggests he was the top corner in Carolina a year ago, but most of his metrics say otherwise. While he recorded 12 pass breakups, he also allowed a 67.4-percent catch rate and 739 yards in his coverage. Smith-Wade made four starts as a rookie but did not offer much resistance in the slot (70-percent catch rate). Neither Moehrig nor Scott has enjoyed much success in coverage over their NFL careers, so the Panthers figure to be a good matchup for tight ends again in 2025.

Who to avoid: Horn's grade above may not reflect it, but he is among the top five corners in the game when he is right. When he is on the field, receivers tend to struggle. Horn's biggest issue - with the exception of last season - has usually been durability.

DC: Dennis Allen (first year)

Run: The Bears were among the worst run defenses in the NFL in 2024 and it is hard to say with much confidence they will be much better this season. Chicago lacks a defensive lineman who can anchor against the run. With that said, the addition of Jarrett is a huge one for this defense for multiple reasons, including serving as an example for the younger guys and how to maximize one's talents. Edwards gets a pass for last year, mostly because he had been one of the best all-around linebackers in the league over the previous three seasons. If Jarrett and Allen can get more out of the Bears' front line, Chicago should crawl back to respectability as a rush defense.

Who to target: It has been a bit of a rough go for Stevenson through two NFL seasons. The 2023 second-round pick will naturally be picked on by offenses more often because Johnson is so good, but he has not done enough to punish offenses for it, allowing 1,432 yards and 13 touchdown catches as a pro. Allen's defensive acumen should help him as much as anyone, however.

Who to avoid: While Johnson was not able to repeat his magical 2023 season, he is still as difficult of a matchup as there is for a receiver in the league. In what was a down year for him, he still only surrendered 424 yards in his coverage. (He has not been targeted more than 51 times in any of the last three seasons!) While it is not known whether Allen will ask him to do it, the likelihood is that Johnson will shadow.

Dallas Player Pos Age 25 Cov 25 Run Cov Grade Run D Grade Micah Parsons ED 26 6.8 65.5 Osa Odighizuwa DI 26 6.2 50.8 Mazi Smith DI 24 4.5 35.9 Dante Fowler Jr. ED 30 6.0 52.3 Jack Sanborn LB 24 6.2 6.4 45.1 70.5 Kenneth Murray Jr. LB 26 6.2 4.5 54.4 35.0 Trevon Diggs CB 26 5.8 5.6 60.3 43.9 DaRon Bland Slot 25 6.8 6.3 71.4 55.1 Kaiir Elam CB 24 5.8 7.0 61.4 78.6 Malik Hooker S 29 6.5 7.8 57.8 77.8 Donovan Wilson S 30 6.1 6.8 56.6 69.7 Rotational Players 43.4 67.9 Solomon Thomas DI 29 58.6 41.5 Jay Toia # DI 21 Marshawn Kneeland ED 23 62.2 47.2 Donovan Ezeiruaku # ED 21 Payton Turner ED 26 62.9 40.7 D. Overshown LB 24 56.9 57.7 Marist Liufau LB 24 46.3 54.1 Shavon Revel Jr. # CB 24 Juanyeh Thomas S 25 61.8 46.9

DC: Matt Eberflus (first year)

Run: While the Cowboys have not been great at stopping the run for a while, they came close to hitting rock bottom last year. Smith was drafted in the first round two years ago with the hope he would be a 337-pound force against the run. It has not happened. Dallas likely hopes the 342-pound Toia can do what Smith has yet to do. Odighizuwa has emerged as a very good interior lineman, but he is most effective against a pass rusher. Murray has graded poorly as a run defender for most of his career, so it will be up to Overshown (if he can return from a serious knee injury this year) or likely Sanborn to make sure the Cowboys are not getting annihilated on the ground again in 2025.

Who to target: Dallas has too many injuries in the secondary to predict what it will field early in the season confidently. Diggs (knee) and likely Revel (knee) would be among the Cowboys' top three cornerbacks if they were fully healthy. Elam would seem to be the easy answer to this question (who to target) given his time in Buffalo, but Dallas appeared to be very happy with him during offseason workouts. Even if that is the case, opponents will almost certainly test him more often than Diggs as soon as the latter proves he is fully healthy.

Who to avoid: Bland should be locked into one of the two corner spots regardless of how healthy Diggs and Revel are. He struggled in a big way last year, although he should be a much better fit in Eberflus' Cover 3 scheme - where he can be more of the ball-hawk he was in 2023 - than he was in former DC Mike Zimmer's defense.

DC: Kelvin Sheppard (first year)

Run: Even as Detroit was losing bodies on defense virtually every week in 2024, the rush defense still managed to finish fifth. The per-carry average was much less impressive (T-18th at 4.5). With Hutchinson back and the team's selection of Williams in the first round this spring to go along with Reader, McNeill and Onwuzurike, the Lions should once again be No. 1 or No. 2 against the run in 2025.

Who to target: It was not long ago that the answer to this question was any cornerback wearing a Lions uniform. Detroit has five legitimate starting-caliber corners now. While Arnold graded out the worst of the likely starters this year, Robertson will likely be the one offenses will target more often. Of course, that assumes he can hold off Maddox.

Who to avoid: Reed may not be a household name for many, but it is hard to ignore what he did as the guy who spent so much time working on the other side of the field as Sauce Gardner over the last three seasons. He has yet to surrender more than two touchdowns in any of his seven seasons and generally keeps the catch rate of the players in his coverage right around 60 percent. Arnold should be a regular in this section soon, but he is not there yet. Branch deserves much of the credit for Detroit being so stingy against tight ends.

DC: Jeff Hafley (second year)

Run: Green Bay should be in great shape to repeat (or at least come close to) last year's seventh-place finish in run defense (third in yards-per-carry allowed at 4.0). While Clark and Wyatt have never graded out particularly well as run defenders, one or both will occasionally command a double team. Even though Hafley's scheme and aggressiveness improved this unit over what it had been for years under former DC Joe Barry, the player who probably deserves most credit for improving the defense is Cooper. He should become a household name soon (and rightfully so).

Who to target: Although CB Jaire Alexander was not available to the team as often as it would have liked, his release is not great news for Green Bay. Nixon will likely now return to being a perimeter corner full-time after playing primarily in the slot over his first three seasons as a Packer. For his career, quarterbacks have compiled a 102.7 passer rating when throwing in his coverage - a number that has not dropped off much since he left the Raiders following the 2021 season.

Who to avoid: Hobbs certainly does not fit into the "must-avoid" class of corners, but the ex-Raider has played like a top-notch corner at times in his four-year career. It should be noted that Green Bay is paying him to be one (four years, $48 million). The Packers were a middle-of-the-pack defense against tight ends last season, but fantasy managers should expect their tight ends to struggle more often than not against the trio of McKinney, Bullard and Williams. (This assumes Bullard will play more of a hybrid slot corner-safety role than operate as a full-time safety.)

DC: Chris Shula (second year)

Run: The Rams' defense has rightfully been talked up during the offseason, but one area it did not perform well was against the run (thanks mostly to the Eagles). While the team took a hit to its youthful front four when Bobby Brown left for the Panthers, the addition of Ford may have been just what the doctor ordered. Ford will not make Los Angeles a top-10 run defense by himself, but his 5-10 and 310-pound frame can be a challenge for offensive linemen to move. Turner and Verse have already established themselves as very good run defenders. Landman and Speights appear to be the frontrunners to start at linebacker, which should also give the rush defense a boost. Landman was as well on his way to being one of the top tacklers in the league with Atlanta last year had he not missed four games due to quad and calf injuries.

Who to target: Los Angeles was among the worst in defending tight ends last year but did not change a thing at safety, so that should be one area fantasy managers should be able to exploit. While Witherspoon and Williams seem to be good fits in this defense, both players are in their early 30s. Neither player graded out particularly well in coverage last season, so it will probably be up to the front seven to generate even more pressure in 2025 to keep the duo from being exposed.

Who to avoid: Los Angeles appears to have a group of good to very good fits for Shula's scheme, but none that rise to the level of unforgiving matchups for opposing receivers.

DC: Brian Flores (third year)

Run: The Vikings finished as a top-five defense in rush yards allowed and yards-per-carry allowed. This year's defense could push for No. 1 overall. Although his career grades do not reflect it, Allen is a player who can command a double team and a HUGE upgrade over Jerry Tillery at one defensive end spot. Hargrave is a downgrade from Jonathan Bullard against the run, but he should more than make up for it with the pressure he creates as an interior pass rusher. Phillips is yet another player who occasionally requires a double team, all of which should make life easy for Cashman and Pace.

Who to target: Blackmon will likely get tested early since he is coming off the ACL tear he suffered during the first practice of training camp last season. How long that remains the case is another story. The 2023 third-round pick was quite impressive in 329 coverage snaps as a rookie.

Who to avoid: Flores recently spoke about how much he has wanted Rodgers on the roster for some time. It seems unlikely that he will ever evolve into a premier shadow (he has yet to play more than 525 snaps in a season), but the Vikings' pass rush may be so lethal this season that he (and/or Murphy) could be poised for a career year. Smith is no longer a top-five safety in the league, but he is a big part of the reason why the Vikings only gave up four touchdowns to tight ends in 2024. As has been the case for most of Smith's career, Minnesota remains a poor matchup for the position.

DC: Brandon Staley (first year)

Run: Were it not for the Panthers' futility in stopping the run, the Saints would have owned the league's worst rush defense in 2024. Outside of adding Godchaux (which is an upgrade despite his poor grade with New England last season), it is hard to see a path in which New Orleans improves very much in 2025. Not only did the Saints not bring in any potential difference-makers against the run, but Staley is also among the least aggressive defensive play-callers in the league. The shame of it all is that New Orleans has a quality linebacking corps headed by the ageless Davis.

Who to target: Whomever is manning the slot. Taylor has been picked on relentlessly for the better part of the last two seasons and it is not hard to understand why. After surrendering 836 yards and allowing 66.4 percent of the targets in his coverage to be completed in 2023, those numbers increased to 998 and 71.8, respectively, in 2024.

Who to avoid: McKinstry showed enough in the second half of his rookie season to be considered an up-and-coming matchup problem, although his biggest issue in 2025 might be the lack of pass rush the front four will get (assuming Young is unable to recapture his rookie-year form). Reid and Mathieu should continue to make New Orleans a difficult matchup for tight ends, although the pass-rush issues and Taylor's struggles might make it a non-issue for most offenses.

DC: Shane Bowen (second year)

Run: On what is quickly becoming a star-studded front seven, Lawrence is still the most important player - certainly against the run anyway. Ledbetter may not be a huge addition for the defense as a whole, but he should be a slight upgrade on early downs for a rush defense that ranked in the bottom quarter of the NFL. Okereke, McFadden and Muasau are unlikely to will this defense to a top-half finish against the run, but linebacker play against the run is not a huge issue for New York.

Who to target: Phillips allowed an unthinkable 82 percent of the passes in his coverage to be caught as a rookie. That number needs to drop at least 15 percent and is incredibly surprising to see considering how high the coaching staff seems to be on him. Banks is a dynamic talent who New York believed could be its version of Marlon Humphrey. While he is capable of putting it together (and should also benefit from the improved pass rush), he has not come close to living up to his first-round draft pedigree in 2023.

Who to avoid: If the upgraded pass rush (read: Carter) is what it should be, then the Giants could be a very good pass defense in 2025. Adebo missed the second half of last season with New Orleans due to injury, but he has been a strong coverage corner over the last 1 1/2 years. It would not be a shock if his coverage grade skyrockets in 2025 with New York's pass rush. While safety play was probably not the main reason New York was so good at limiting tight end production last season (the pass rush and poor cornerback play were a much bigger issue), Holland and Nubin could be the main reason why tight ends struggle this year.

Philadelphia Player Pos Age 25 Cov 25 Run Cov Grade Run D Grade Nolan Smith ED 24 7.6 74.0 Jalen Carter DI 24 6.6 55.8 Jordan Davis DI 25 6.2 58.8 Jalyx Hunt ED 24 6.4 62.4 Zack Baun LB 28 8.4 8.0 90.9 79.4 Jihaad Campbell # LB 21 6.2 7.2 Quinyon Mitchell CB 23 8.5 7.0 78.8 69.2 Kelee Ringo CB 23 6.1 6.4 66.4 58.1 Cooper DeJean Slot 22 8.6 8.2 84.2 90.4 Reed Blankenship S 26 7.3 6.8 69.1 71.6 Sydney Brown S 25 7.1 6.5 66.5 68.9 Rotational Players 52.2 76.9 Moro Ojomo DI 23 58.7 Ty Robinson # DI 24 Azeez Ojulari ED 25 60.1 Joshua Uche ED 26 70.2 Nakobe Dean LB 24 62.4 82.5 Jeremiah Trotter Jr. LB 22 74.8 68.4 Adoree' Jackson CB 29 64.5 85.8 Andrew Mukuba # S 22

DC: Vic Fangio (second year)

Run: As dominant as Philadelphia's defense was near the end of the season, it was a bit surprising to see the Eagles just slide inside the top 10 against the run. However, stopping the run has not been the focus of Fangio's defenses for some time. Losing DT Milton Williams hurts the front seven as a whole, but his biggest contribution was as a pass-rusher anyway. Ojomo and Robinson should more than make up for his loss against the run. The Eagles should remain a top-10 run defense based not only on the fact that Davis and Carter will again draw so much attention up front, but also because the team likely struck gold with Campbell in April's draft. The combination of him and Baun should be a frightening sight for most offenses.

Who to target: Philadelphia hit the jackpot with Mitchell and DeJean in the draft last year. Thus, almost by default, the answer to this question will be Ringo - assuming he holds off Jackson - because he has only logged 214 coverage snaps through two seasons. The trade of C.J. Gardner-Johnson to the Texans means Brown or Mukaba must step up. Considering Gardner-Johnson graded out as a top-10 coverage player at safety, tight ends could enjoy a bit more success against Philadelphia this season. (This assumes DeJean plays more slot corner than safety, which may not be a great assumption.)

Who to avoid: Mitchell played like a top-10 corner in the league almost immediately, allowing a meager 56.8 percent of the passes in his coverage to be completed as a rookie. It took almost two months for DeJean to be integrated into the defense, but he balled out when he did. While the 71.1-percent catch rate allowed is not ideal - even for a slot corner - he did not give up a touchdown in 606 coverage snaps.

San Francisco Player Pos Age 25 Cov 25 Run Cov Grade Run D Grade Nick Bosa ED 27 7.4 79.9 Jordan Elliott DI 27 5.5 53.1 Alfred Collins # DI 23 5.8 Bryce Huff ED 27 6 60.3 Fred Warner LB 28 8.4 8.4 88.4 82.1 Nick Martin # LB 22 5.7 6.1 Deommodore Lenoir Slot 25 6.6 6.8 71.7 64.7 Renardo Green CB 24 7.1 5.5 74.3 46.9 Tre Brown CB 27 6 6.4 53.5 71.7 Ji'Ayir Brown S 25 7.5 5.9 69.5 53.6 Jason Pinnock S 26 6 6.5 45.5 59.5 Rotational Players 47.3 70.3 CJ West # DI 23 Kevin Givens DI 28 38.4 Mykel Williams # ED 21 Yetur Gross-Matos ED 27 46.6 Dee Winters LB 24 80 51.2 Luke Gifford LB 29 66.7 52.2 Upton Stout CB 23 Malik Mustapha S 23 60.1 66.3 Richie Grant S 27 42.5 49.2

DC: Robert Saleh (first year)

Run: The 49ers experienced enough turnover in the offseason to render anything they did statistically in 2024 almost meaningless. With three rookies (Collins, Williams and West) expected to see their fair share of playing time (or potentially start in Williams' case), there may be too many free blockers too often for Warner, Winters and Martin to be at their best. While San Francisco will probably be more than the sum of its parts against the run, the 49ers appear to be in for a long year in terms of stopping the run consistently.

Who to target: While CB Charvarius Ward did not play all that well last year (due mostly to some personal and family issues), he had emerged as one of the top 15 or so cornerbacks in the league. With Ward now a Colt, the honor of being San Francisco's top corner falls on Lenoir, who is bound to struggle in 2025 as he moves to the perimeter on a full-time basis after being a very good slot cornerback over the last two seasons. If San Francisco decides it would be better off not changing Lenoir's role, then Brown will have a huge target on his back. He was average at best during his four-year stint in Seattle. The 49ers were one of the stingier defenses against tight ends last season, but the combination of S Talanoa Hufanga's departure (Denver) and what will likely be a lesser pass rush could cause San Francisco to be a bit more susceptible to the position in 2025.

Who to avoid: Green is unlikely to move into the tier of corners who change offensive game plans in 2025, but his rookie season last year had to be considered a success. Some of his highlights: a catch rate allowed of 62.9 percent and one touchdown surrendered over his final nine games.

DC: Aden Durde (second year)

Run: Seattle finished in the middle of the pack against the run but was tied for seventh in terms of most yards allowed per carry. However, those marks only tell part of the story. Following the team's Week 10 bye and once Jones had a chance to get familiar with his new surroundings following the midseason trade from the Titans, the same defense that had surrendered at least 155 yards rushing six times through nine contests held four of its final eight opponents to fewer than 90 yards. Outside of Jones, the Seahawks' additions of Lawrence and Hankins should further solidify the front seven and put Seattle in position to be one of the 10 or 12 best run defenses in the league in 2025.

Who to target: Jobe has logged a mere 508 coverage snaps since he signed with the Eagles as an undrafted free agent in 2022. He did not fare well in two years with Philadelphia but performed markedly better last year with Seattle. With that said, he simply does not possess the same athletic ability or coverage skills as Witherspoon or Woolen.

Who to avoid: Witherspoon was not quite the stud in his first year in HC Mike Macdonald's defense that he was during the last year of the Pete Carroll regime, but he is still a cornerback that receivers hope they can avoid. He spends more than half of his time in the slot, so opposing alphas will not be able to escape his coverage if Macdonald wants him to shadow. Woolen has not quite been able to follow up his stellar rookie campaign (six interceptions) in 2022, although 2024 saw him allow a catch rate of 55.2 percent. Last year was also the second straight season in which he yielded less than 400 yards.

Tampa Bay Player Pos Age 25 Cov 25 Run Cov Grade Run D Grade Logan Hall DI 25 5.8 56.7 Vita Vea DI 30 6.4 65.3 Calijah Kancey DI 28 4.0 32.2 Haason Reddick ED 30 5.8 56.3 Lavonte David LB 35 6.4 7.3 56.9 77.6 SirVocea Dennis LB 25 7.7 5.8 74.3 54.1 Jamel Dean CB 28 7.6 7.1 75.4 69.3 Zyon McCollum CB 26 6.9 6.4 66.1 65.2 Tykee Smith Slot 24 7.4 7.8 70.0 90.3 Antoine Winfield Jr. S 26 8.2 7.8 50.8 73.3 Christian Izien S 25 7.0 6.0 55.3 67.9 Rotational Players 51.2 70.2 Greg Gaines DI 29 65.8 Yaya Diaby ED 26 74.8 David Walker # ED 25 Elijah Roberts # ED 23 Anthony Nelson ED 28 58.1 46.5 Anthony Walker Jr. LB 29 39.1 69.5 B. Morrison # CB 21 Jacob Parrish # CB 21 Kaevon Merriweather S 25 62.9 62.2

DC: Todd Bowles (fourth year)

Run: Tampa Bay was about average at stopping the run last year (4.3 YPC), but its offense was so good at times that its opponents only attempted 389 runs (third-lowest in the league). Generally speaking, the Bucs will usually be very good at defending the run as long as Vea is healthy. David has graded out consistently excellent for almost 10 years and should be expected to do so again even as he enters his age-35 season. Bowles has repeatedly sung the praises of Dennis this offseason. It is possible that the departure of Britt (and promotion of Dennis) is what gets Tampa Bay back to being a top 10 rush defense.

Who to target: Parrish could win the nickel corner job in camp. With that said, he will probably be picked on early because he is a smallish rookie. How long that remains the case will be interesting because he should be a good one before long. If Smith holds onto the job, then McCollum will probably see the most throws in his direction. Bowles' heavy-blitz scheme tends to open up opportunities for tight ends to get fed on short-range targets, so expect that to be the case again regardless of whether Winfield plays a full season after he suited up for only 10 games a year ago.

Who to avoid: Dean does not get near enough credit for his consistent good play. Durability has been a slight problem recently, but last year's showing (specifically zero touchdowns allowed in his coverage on 516 coverage snaps) is further proof that he is a very good defender. Fortunately for managers, he rarely moves off the right side of the defensive formation, so targeting matchups for fantasy purposes will be easier to do with him.

DC: Joe Whitt Jr. (second year)

Run: For all the things that went right for Washington last season, stopping the run was not one of them. The Commanders ranked 30th in total rushing yards allowed and tied for 28th in yards per carry allowed (4.8). Washington will undoubtedly get the play it needs at linebacker from Wagner and Luvu, but it is nearly impossible to make a case that Kinlaw, Goldman and/or Wise will be more of a force inside than DT Jonathan Allen (Vikings) was. The Commanders desperately need Newton to play at a higher level than he did as a rookie in 2024 and live up to his second-round draft cost. If that does not happen, it could be another season of giving up at least 140 rushing yards in 10 games - including more than 200 five times (including the postseason).

Who to target: While neither Amos nor Jones should be considered a slouch, they will inevitably be targeted more often than they probably should considering how good Lattimore and Sainristil are. Washington's lackluster run defense likely played a huge role in why the Commanders did not give up more production to the tight end position than they did a year ago. Martin and Harris have graded out decently in coverage recently, but they figure to be tested more often in 2025 as a result of Washington being strong at cornerback.

Who to avoid: Lattimore played in only two regular-season games last year for the Commanders, and it is debatable if he was fully healthy and/or confident enough in his hamstring to be his usual self. While durability has been a major problem for him since 2021, he can be a top-10 corner when healthy and capable of being a major problem for receivers. Sainristil was everything the Commanders could have hoped for and then some. Whether he lines up in the slot or outside more often will probably depend on how quickly Amos develops. If Amos is a Week 1 starter, then fantasy managers would be wise to downgrade - at least slightly - receivers who are good enough to draw shadow coverage from Lattimore and/or work primarily from the slot.

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As promised, here are my projected grades for each team's defense (pass rush, run defense and coverage).