Sometime between the end of the preseason and the first week of
the season, fantasy managers and analysts alike shift gears from
not caring one iota about their players' matchups to making it
their primary consideration when setting about 70 percent of their
lineup. A tough three- or four-game stretch for a player at the
beginning or end of the season should not surprise anyone who
calls watching or analyzing football their job, yet many are shocked
to learn some of their players open the season with three of their
first five or six games against likely top 10 pass or rush defenses.
THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF FANTASY ANALYSTS DO NOT CONSIDER
DEFENSIVE MATCHUPS WHEN CREATING PROJECTIONS.
There is a distinct reason I do this year after year (and I think
it has been instrumental in why I have yet to lose money in any
single year since I began playing in money leagues 25 years ago):
it matters.
Defense may not matter as much as it used to, but it is a mistake
not to account for it at all. Doing so suggests a belief that
NFL games are like seven-on-seven drills. I realized as early
as 2004 that I did not like the idea of my players having to face
the Ravens or the Steelers, especially during the fantasy playoffs.
Certainly, my approach has evolved significantly from that initial
premise, but I think my track record of success speaks for itself
and suggests there is substantial value in putting some weight
into "the matchup." The key is giving potential matchups
the proper amount of weight to a player's evaluation. By itself,
a matchup will not transform an every-week RB3 into an RB1 or
turn a perennial WR1 into a bench option, but it is helpful for
fantasy managers trying to find weekly and even season-long values
and avoid potential busts.
That brings us to our focus for the second straight week. (Here
is last week's submission
with AFC teams.) With defenses operating out of sub-packages
(nickel, dime, quarter, etc.) around 75 percent of the time in
today's game, it makes sense to use their likely sub-package personnel
as the basis for matchup analysis. Furthermore, it helps to have
an understanding of how each veteran defensive player who will
be playing in those packages graded out and/or performed last
year. With the help of sites like Pro Football Focus and Pro Football
Reference, we can do that.
Defense is a team endeavor, so the process is never as easy as
spotting a player with a weakness and having an offense exploit
that matchup repeatedly. An important part of coaching in any
sport is the ability to maximize players' strengths and mask their
weaknesses; players either will get help from the scheme or be
benched if they continue to struggle. Nevertheless, the goal of
any good offense is to isolate the weak link in the passing defense
as often as possible or take advantage of what may be a "soft"
run defense (assuming that matches up with the run-blocking ability
of the offensive line). It is also important to understand that
no defender lines up across any offensive player on every play,
so we are playing odds here as opposed to dealing with virtual
certainties (i.e., the few shadow cornerbacks that exist usually
only "shadow" about 50-60 percent of the time).
The color-coding in this two-part series is based on
last year only because we have no information about this
season. Last year's color codes help set the stage for this year.
Film analysis and advanced analytics help us predict what may
happen.
Each team table below will contain more than 11 players. Projected
starters will have projected grades next to their ages, but the
rotational players will not because I want the final projected
scores (coverage, pass rush and run defense) for each team to
reflect the defenders logging the most snaps. Much as I summarized
specialty areas for the offensive
line piece two weeks ago, I will rank each team in terms of
projected coverage, pass rush and run defense scores below.
The purpose of this article is simple, even if the execution
of it is not: attempting to identify what defenders present fantasy
owners with an opportunity for success. There is a heavy amount
of subjectivity that goes into my color-coding matchups in advance
of the Big Board. This process reduces most of that and gives
readers a look under the hood, so to speak.
Key:
Green box - Player graded 80 or higher in that
particular discipline per PFF (100-point scale) Blue box - Player graded between 70 or 79.9 in
that particular discipline Yellow box - Player graded between 60 or 69.9
in that particular discipline Red box - Player graded 59.9 or lower in that
particular discipline Black box - Player did not log a snap in the
NFL snap or the discipline does not apply to his position
Italic (player name) - Likely (but potentially
important) rotational player # - Rookie
- Currently injured
25 Cov - Projected 2025 coverage grade 25 Run - Projected 2025 run defense grade Grades - Coverage (Cov) and run defense (Run
D)
****All personnel stats courtesy of Ryan Weisman. Check his
work out here. All grades courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
****
Arizona
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Josh Sweat
ED
28
6.4
67.8
Calais Campbell
DI
38
8.0
85.9
Dalvin Tomlinson
DI
31
6.0
64.2
Baron Browning
ED
26
4.9
43.5
Mack Wilson Sr.
LB
27
6.2
6.6
56.8
68.5
Akeem Davis-Gaither
LB
27
6.6
6.3
57.5
60.6
Will Johnson #
CB
22
6.2
6.0
Max Melton
CB
23
6.5
5.4
56.1
44.3
Garrett Williams
Slot
24
7.7
6.3
83.7
65.1
Budda Baker
S
29
7.8
7.8
74.7
79.9
Jalen Thompson
S
26
7.0
7.2
64.2
76.2
Rotational Players
48.0
70.9
Walter Nolen #
DI
21
Darius Robinson
DI
23
53.4
Jordan Burch #
ED
23
Zaven Collins
ED
26
85.4
Cody Simon #
LB
23
Kei'Trel Clark
CB
24
65.7
81.5
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson
S
24
70.0
80.6
DC: Nick Rallis (third year)
Run: The Cardinals finished 20th against the
run and in a tie for 23rd in yards allowed per carry (4.6), but
most of the reasons for that performance are no longer with the
team or were injured most of the season. The mere return of ageless
wonder Campbell to the desert should make Arizona at least a league-average
run-stopping unit. Tomlinson is also better against the run than
just about anyone the Cardinals had up front last season. Wilson
and Davis-Gaither may not be game-changers behind them, but their
jobs will be made unmeasurably easier in 2025 by the fact that
HC Jonathan Gannon is trying hard to emulate the defensive line
model that benefited him during his time with the Eagles.
Who to target: Rookie corners usually need some
time to adapt to the NFL before they become feared, and that should
be the expectation for Johnson. The Cardinals caught a huge break
by having him fall into their lap at pick No. 47. He should end
up being the best corner in Arizona since at least Byron Murphy
when he adapts to the pro game, which may not take long. With
that said, Johnson and Melton figure to be picked on relentlessly
for at least the first month of the season. Both men should be
helped immensely by the Cardinals' vastly improved pass rush,
however.
Who to avoid: Williams was a revelation in the
slot in 2024. He is not a must-avoid when discussing fantasy ramifications
for receivers, although a catch rate allowed of 58.3 percent is
quite impressive for a slot corner. Arizona has been a tough matchup
for tight ends for most of the last few years in part because
Baker remains one of the best safeties in the game.
Atlanta
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Jalon Walker #
ED
21
5.5
David Onyemata
DI
32
7.2
64.5
Morgan Fox
DI
30
5.2
43.4
Leonard Floyd
ED
32
5.4
54.4
Kaden Elliss
LB
29
6.5
7.4
58.8
70.3
Divine Deablo
LB
26
5.8
6.4
53.2
58.7
A.J. Terrell
CB
26
7.6
6.3
68.6
61.6
Mike Hughes
CB
28
6.7
6.6
71.4
68.2
Dee Alford
Slot
27
6.3
6.4
55.9
64.5
Jessie Bates III
S
28
8.5
8.6
81.4
80.4
Jordan Fuller
S
27
5.7
7.5
47.0
68.5
Rotational Players
47.1
72.5
Zach Harrison
DI
23
64.0
Ruke Orhorhoro
DI
23
56.7
Brandon Dorlus
DI
24
66.4
James Pearce Jr. #
ED
21
Arnold Ebiketie
ED
26
57.5
Troy Andersen
LB
26
58.6
63.5
Clark Phillips III
CB
23
76.0
72.5
Xavier Watts #
S
23
Billy Bowman Jr. #
S
22
DC: Jeff Ulbrich (first year)
Run: Atlanta ranked about league average in most major rush defense
categories, which should be considered a small miracle considering
the relative lack of girth the team had up front. Losing Grady
Jarrett to the Bears will not help the cause against the run or
the pass, but at least the Falcons were prepared for his departure
after drafting Orhorhoro and Dorlus last year. Nevertheless, Atlanta
is taking a chance by asking Onyemata to be the most stout run
defender the team has up front for one more season. If the Falcons
can overcome their lack of size on the defensive line again, their
linebackers are good enough to keep Atlanta in the middle of the
pack in terms of rush defense.
Who to target: Hughes is coming off one of his best seasons as
a pro, but 2024 was so far out of character for him that teams
will probably not hesitate to target him again. Phillips could
(and probably should) easily bump him from the lineup at some
point this season.
Who to avoid: Terrell seems to run a little hot-and-cold from
year to year when it comes to being a dominant corner. Nevertheless,
he should not be considered a good matchup for receivers most
of the time. The elite wideouts in the league typically seem to
be unaffected by his coverage, but fantasy managers should downgrade
their receivers about 90 percent of the time he is not facing
the Ja'Marr Chases or Justin Jeffersons of the world. Bates remains
one of the best in the business. If the Falcons do the smart thing
and let him play center field (as opposed to switching the responsibility
like he did last year with Justin Simmons), then tight ends should
be expected to struggle against Atlanta.
Carolina
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Pat Jones II
ED
26
6.1
69.4
Derrick Brown
DI
27
8.2
48.1
Bobby Brown III
DI
24
6.3
65.6
D.J. Wonnum
ED
27
6.0
53.0
Josey Jewell
LB
30
6.4
6.0
60.0
52.2
Trevin Wallace
LB
22
6.6
5.3
64.2
46.9
Jaycee Horn
CB
25
7.5
8.0
59.1
80.9
Mike Jackson
CB
28
7.3
6.3
67.1
61.3
Chau Smith-Wade
Slot
22
5.8
6.2
49.6
67.2
Tre'von Moehrig
S
26
6.8
8.3
54.4
87.5
Demani Richardson
S
24
6.0
7.0
58.6
66.9
Rotational Players
46.4
73.7
Tershawn Wharton
DI
27
48.3
A'Shawn Robinson
DI
30
54.1
Shy Tuttle
DI
29
33.5
Nic Scourton #
ED
20
Princely Umanmielen #
ED
23
Christian Rozeboom
LB
28
51.2
58.6
Akayleb Evans
CB
26
54.9
66.2
Nick Scott
S
30
56.7
48.1
DC: Ejiro Evero (third year)
Run: One man does not a defense make, but the loss of Brown in
Week 1 set the stage for the Panthers to have one of the worst
rush defenses in league history. Simply getting a full season
out of the 27-year-old should be enough to make Carolina respectable
against the run again. Bobby Brown III should also be a significant
upgrade on Tuttle. The team parted with long-time standout LB
Shaq Thompson in the offseason after consecutive injury-shortened
seasons and will move forward with Jewell and Wallace. Neither
man stood much of a chance behind Carolina's line without Derrick
Brown a year ago. While Wallace should improve simply because
he is no longer a rookie, Jewell should get a chance to stand
out now with more protection from his line.
Who to target: Jackson's grade suggests he was the top corner
in Carolina a year ago, but most of his metrics say otherwise.
While he recorded 12 pass breakups, he also allowed a 67.4-percent
catch rate and 739 yards in his coverage. Smith-Wade made four
starts as a rookie but did not offer much resistance in the slot
(70-percent catch rate). Neither Moehrig nor Scott has enjoyed
much success in coverage over their NFL careers, so the Panthers
figure to be a good matchup for tight ends again in 2025.
Who to avoid: Horn's grade above may not reflect it, but he is
among the top five corners in the game when he is right. When
he is on the field, receivers tend to struggle. Horn's biggest
issue - with the exception of last season - has usually been durability.
Chicago
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Montez Sweat
ED
28
7.3
65.5
Grady Jarrett
DI
32
6.1
61.5
Gervon Dexter Sr.
DI
23
6.2
61.1
Dayo Odeyingbo
ED
25
5.5
56.8
T.J. Edwards
LB
28
7.1
7.1
56.9
60.5
Tremaine Edmunds
LB
27
6.0
6.1
56.3
62.6
Jaylon Johnson
CB
26
8.4
7.3
74.2
79.9
Kyler Gordon
Slot
25
7.8
6.6
76.0
76.5
Tyrique Stevenson
CB
25
6.0
6.5
58.4
63.7
Jaquan Brisker
S
26
6.6
7.2
63.5
66.7
Kevin Byard
S
31
6.8
8.2
61.6
86.0
Rotational Players
48.7
74.1
Shemar Turner #
DI
22
Zacch Pickens
DI
25
42.1
Austin Booker
ED
22
43.1
Dominique Robinson
ED
27
49.5
Ruben Hyppolite II #
LB
23
Terell Smith
CB
25
76.5
78.7
Zah Frazier #
CB
24
Jonathan Owens
S
29
53.9
88.6
DC: Dennis Allen (first year)
Run: The Bears were among the worst run defenses in the NFL in
2024 and it is hard to say with much confidence they will be much
better this season. Chicago lacks a defensive lineman who can
anchor against the run. With that said, the addition of Jarrett
is a huge one for this defense for multiple reasons, including
serving as an example for the younger guys and how to maximize
one's talents. Edwards gets a pass for last year, mostly because
he had been one of the best all-around linebackers in the league
over the previous three seasons. If Jarrett and Allen can get
more out of the Bears' front line, Chicago should crawl back to
respectability as a rush defense.
Who to target: It has been a bit of a rough go for Stevenson
through two NFL seasons. The 2023 second-round pick will naturally
be picked on by offenses more often because Johnson is so good,
but he has not done enough to punish offenses for it, allowing
1,432 yards and 13 touchdown catches as a pro. Allen's defensive
acumen should help him as much as anyone, however.
Who to avoid: While Johnson was not able to repeat his magical
2023 season, he is still as difficult of a matchup as there is
for a receiver in the league. In what was a down year for him,
he still only surrendered 424 yards in his coverage. (He has not
been targeted more than 51 times in any of the last three seasons!)
While it is not known whether Allen will ask him to do it, the
likelihood is that Johnson will shadow.
Dallas
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Micah Parsons
ED
26
6.8
65.5
Osa Odighizuwa
DI
26
6.2
50.8
Mazi Smith
DI
24
4.5
35.9
Dante Fowler Jr.
ED
30
6.0
52.3
Jack Sanborn
LB
24
6.2
6.4
45.1
70.5
Kenneth Murray Jr.
LB
26
6.2
4.5
54.4
35.0
Trevon
Diggs
CB
26
5.8
5.6
60.3
43.9
DaRon Bland
Slot
25
6.8
6.3
71.4
55.1
Kaiir Elam
CB
24
5.8
7.0
61.4
78.6
Malik Hooker
S
29
6.5
7.8
57.8
77.8
Donovan Wilson
S
30
6.1
6.8
56.6
69.7
Rotational Players
43.4
67.9
Solomon Thomas
DI
29
58.6
41.5
Jay Toia #
DI
21
Marshawn Kneeland
ED
23
62.2
47.2
Donovan Ezeiruaku #
ED
21
Payton Turner
ED
26
62.9
40.7
D. Overshown
LB
24
56.9
57.7
Marist Liufau
LB
24
46.3
54.1
Shavon Revel Jr. #
CB
24
Juanyeh Thomas
S
25
61.8
46.9
DC: Matt Eberflus (first year)
Run: While the Cowboys have not been great at stopping the run
for a while, they came close to hitting rock bottom last year.
Smith was drafted in the first round two years ago with the hope
he would be a 337-pound force against the run. It has not happened.
Dallas likely hopes the 342-pound Toia can do what Smith has yet
to do. Odighizuwa has emerged as a very good interior lineman,
but he is most effective against a pass rusher. Murray has graded
poorly as a run defender for most of his career, so it will be
up to Overshown (if he can return from a serious knee injury this
year) or likely Sanborn to make sure the Cowboys are not getting
annihilated on the ground again in 2025.
Who to target: Dallas has too many injuries in the secondary
to predict what it will field early in the season confidently.
Diggs (knee) and likely Revel (knee) would be among the Cowboys'
top three cornerbacks if they were fully healthy. Elam would seem
to be the easy answer to this question (who to target) given his
time in Buffalo, but Dallas appeared to be very happy with him
during offseason workouts. Even if that is the case, opponents
will almost certainly test him more often than Diggs as soon as
the latter proves he is fully healthy.
Who to avoid: Bland should be locked into one of the two corner
spots regardless of how healthy Diggs and Revel are. He struggled
in a big way last year, although he should be a much better fit
in Eberflus' Cover 3 scheme - where he can be more of the ball-hawk
he was in 2023 - than he was in former DC Mike Zimmer's defense.
Detroit
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Aidan Hutchinson
ED
24
7.2
70.6
DJ Reader
DI
31
7.2
62.6
Alim McNeill
DI
25
6.9
64.5
Marcus Davenport
ED
28
6.6
53.4
Jack Campbell
LB
24
6.8
7.7
74.2
82.5
Alex Anzalone
LB
30
6.7
6.2
72.1
58.1
Derrick Barnes
LB
26
6.4
7.4
66.6
77.2
Terrion Arnold
CB
22
6.4
5.9
50.2
54.8
D.J. Reed
CB
28
7.8
7.5
70.1
71.8
Brian Branch
Slot
23
8.0
8.7
77.8
90.8
Kerby Joseph
S
24
7.9
8.2
91.1
83.6
Rotational Players
50.0
79.5
Levi Onwuzurike
DI
27
66.5
Tyleik Williams #
DI
22
Josh Paschal
ED
25
59.7
Ahmed Hassanein #
ED
22
Zach Cunningham
LB
30
64.4
68.7
Amik Robertson
CB
27
62.2
89.7
Avonte Maddox
CB
29
62.9
58.5
Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
CB
23
41.0
53.3
Morice Norris Jr.
S
24
39.1
62.4
DC: Kelvin Sheppard (first year)
Run: Even as Detroit was losing bodies on defense virtually every
week in 2024, the rush defense still managed to finish fifth.
The per-carry average was much less impressive (T-18th at 4.5).
With Hutchinson back and the team's selection of Williams in the
first round this spring to go along with Reader, McNeill and Onwuzurike,
the Lions should once again be No. 1 or No. 2 against the run
in 2025.
Who to target: It was not long ago that the answer to this question
was any cornerback wearing a Lions uniform. Detroit has five legitimate
starting-caliber corners now. While Arnold graded out the worst
of the likely starters this year, Robertson will likely be the
one offenses will target more often. Of course, that assumes he
can hold off Maddox.
Who to avoid: Reed may not be a household name for many, but
it is hard to ignore what he did as the guy who spent so much
time working on the other side of the field as Sauce Gardner over
the last three seasons. He has yet to surrender more than two
touchdowns in any of his seven seasons and generally keeps the
catch rate of the players in his coverage right around 60 percent.
Arnold should be a regular in this section soon, but he is not
there yet. Branch deserves much of the credit for Detroit being
so stingy against tight ends.
Green Bay
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Rashan Gary
ED
27
7.5
72.8
Kenny Clark
DI
29
5.6
58.4
Devonte Wyatt
DI
27
5.9
52.0
Lukas Van Ness
ED
24
5.0
44.8
Edgerrin Cooper
LB
23
8.2
8.0
77.3
77.4
Quay Walker
LB
25
5.6
6.8
50.6
64.7
Nate Hobbs
CB
26
7.0
7.2
61.5
62.1
Keisean Nixon
CB
28
6.4
6.8
60.7
65.8
Javon Bullard
Slot
22
6.0
7.0
49.0
67.7
Xavier McKinney
S
26
8.5
7.2
90.2
67.0
Evan Williams
S
23
6.9
6.3
73.8
60.3
Rotational Players
48.6
73.3
Karl Brooks
DI
26
39.7
Colby Wooden
DI
24
47.7
Kingsley Enagbare
ED
25
66.6
Barryn Sorrell #
ED
22
Isaiah Simmons
LB
26
43.6
61.5
Carrington Valentine
CB
23
71.4
40.5
Zayne Anderson
S
28
75.6
73.0
DC: Jeff Hafley (second year)
Run: Green Bay should be in great shape to repeat (or at least
come close to) last year's seventh-place finish in run defense
(third in yards-per-carry allowed at 4.0). While Clark and Wyatt
have never graded out particularly well as run defenders, one
or both will occasionally command a double team. Even though Hafley's
scheme and aggressiveness improved this unit over what it had
been for years under former DC Joe Barry, the player who probably
deserves most credit for improving the defense is Cooper. He should
become a household name soon (and rightfully so).
Who to target: Although CB Jaire Alexander was not available
to the team as often as it would have liked, his release is not
great news for Green Bay. Nixon will likely now return to being
a perimeter corner full-time after playing primarily in the slot
over his first three seasons as a Packer. For his career, quarterbacks
have compiled a 102.7 passer rating when throwing in his coverage
- a number that has not dropped off much since he left the Raiders
following the 2021 season.
Who to avoid: Hobbs certainly does not fit into the "must-avoid"
class of corners, but the ex-Raider has played like a top-notch
corner at times in his four-year career. It should be noted that
Green Bay is paying him to be one (four years, $48 million). The
Packers were a middle-of-the-pack defense against tight ends last
season, but fantasy managers should expect their tight ends to
struggle more often than not against the trio of McKinney, Bullard
and Williams. (This assumes Bullard will play more of a hybrid
slot corner-safety role than operate as a full-time safety.)
LA Rams
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Jared Verse
ED
24
8.4
81.0
Braden Fiske
DI
25
5.1
38.9
Poona Ford
DI
29
6.6
80.3
Byron Young
ED
27
6.0
55.7
Nate Landman
LB
26
6.2
8.0
58.2
73.9
Troy Reeder
LB
30
6.1
6.3
55.9
61.7
Ahkello Witherspoon
CB
30
6.5
6.3
62.6
62.2
Darious Williams
CB
32
6.7
5.5
59.8
54.6
Quentin Lake
Slot
26
6.4
8.1
59.2
80.3
Kamren Curl
S
26
6.6
7.0
62.1
68.5
Kamren Kinchens
S
22
7.2
6.7
73.7
65.1
Rotational Players
45.7
74.0
Kobie Turner
DI
26
74.8
Tyler Davis
DI
24
46.3
Josaiah Stewart #
ED
22
Omar Speights
LB
24
56.5
77.6
Cobie Durant
CB
27
61.5
60.6
Emmanuel Forbes
CB
24
39.9
40.9
Jaylen McCollough
S
24
61.6
52.0
DC: Chris Shula (second year)
Run: The Rams' defense has rightfully been talked up during the
offseason, but one area it did not perform well was against the
run (thanks mostly to the Eagles). While the team took a hit to
its youthful front four when Bobby Brown left for the Panthers,
the addition of Ford may have been just what the doctor ordered.
Ford will not make Los Angeles a top-10 run defense by himself,
but his 5-10 and 310-pound frame can be a challenge for offensive
linemen to move. Turner and Verse have already established themselves
as very good run defenders. Landman and Speights appear to be
the frontrunners to start at linebacker, which should also give
the rush defense a boost. Landman was as well on his way to being
one of the top tacklers in the league with Atlanta last year had
he not missed four games due to quad and calf injuries.
Who to target: Los Angeles was among the worst in defending tight
ends last year but did not change a thing at safety, so that should
be one area fantasy managers should be able to exploit. While
Witherspoon and Williams seem to be good fits in this defense,
both players are in their early 30s. Neither player graded out
particularly well in coverage last season, so it will probably
be up to the front seven to generate even more pressure in 2025
to keep the duo from being exposed.
Who to avoid: Los Angeles appears to have a group of good to
very good fits for Shula's scheme, but none that rise to the level
of unforgiving matchups for opposing receivers.
Minnesota
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Jonathan Greenard
ED
28
7.3
68.5
Jonathan Allen
DI
30
4.8
42.2
Javon Hargrave
DI
32
5.3
44.7
Andrew Van Ginkel
ED
30
6.5
61.5
Blake Cashman
LB
29
6.4
8.0
62.1
76.3
Ivan Pace Jr.
LB
24
6.6
7.4
29.3
87.0
Byron Murphy Jr.
Slot
27
7.0
6.8
73.5
67.1
Isaiah Rodgers
CB
27
7.8
8.1
70.5
83.4
Mekhi Blackmon
CB
26
6.5
6.7
Harrison Smith
S
36
6.4
7.2
65.3
75.9
Josh Metellus
S
27
6.2
7.8
52.2
83.1
Rotational Players
46.9
75.9
Harrison Phillips
DI
29
52.7
Jalen Redmond
DI
26
73.4
Dallas Turner
ED
22
62.7
Eric Wilson
LB
30
59.1
64.7
Brian Asamoah II
LB
25
28.0
42.6
Jeff Okudah
CB
26
29.3
66.0
Tavierre Thomas
S
29
51.4
41.9
DC: Brian Flores (third year)
Run: The Vikings finished as a top-five defense in rush yards
allowed and yards-per-carry allowed. This year's defense could
push for No. 1 overall. Although his career grades do not reflect
it, Allen is a player who can command a double team and a HUGE
upgrade over Jerry Tillery at one defensive end spot. Hargrave
is a downgrade from Jonathan Bullard against the run, but he should
more than make up for it with the pressure he creates as an interior
pass rusher. Phillips is yet another player who occasionally requires
a double team, all of which should make life easy for Cashman
and Pace.
Who to target: Blackmon will likely get tested early since he
is coming off the ACL tear he suffered during the first practice
of training camp last season. How long that remains the case is
another story. The 2023 third-round pick was quite impressive
in 329 coverage snaps as a rookie.
Who to avoid: Flores recently spoke about how much he has wanted
Rodgers on the roster for some time. It seems unlikely that he
will ever evolve into a premier shadow (he has yet to play more
than 525 snaps in a season), but the Vikings' pass rush may be
so lethal this season that he (and/or Murphy) could be poised
for a career year. Smith is no longer a top-five safety in the
league, but he is a big part of the reason why the Vikings only
gave up four touchdowns to tight ends in 2024. As has been the
case for most of Smith's career, Minnesota remains a poor matchup
for the position.
New Orleans
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Cameron Jordan
ED
35
5.8
54.5
Davon Godchaux
DI
30
5.0
48.0
Bryan Bresee
DI
23
4.0
28.0
Chase Young
ED
26
6.8
55.4
Demario Davis
LB
36
6.6
7.7
63.4
80.2
Pete Werner
LB
26
6.1
6.5
69.0
68.5
Kool-Aid McKinstry
CB
22
6.3
6.1
67.1
55.9
Isaac Yiadom
CB
29
6.3
7.0
55.3
76.1
Alontae Taylor
CB
26
5.0
6.8
35.4
82.1
Justin Reid
S
28
6.6
7.4
76.5
83.5
Tyrann Mathieu
S
33
6.4
6.4
57.8
65.0
Rotational Players
43.3
69.5
Nathan Shepherd
DI
31
32.6
Khalen Saunders
DI
28
49.2
Carl Granderson
ED
28
73.3
Danny Stutsman #
LB
22
Quincy Riley #
CB
24
Jordan Howden
S
25
63.5
77.2
Jonas Sanker #
S
22
DC: Brandon Staley (first year)
Run: Were it not for the Panthers' futility in stopping the run,
the Saints would have owned the league's worst rush defense in
2024. Outside of adding Godchaux (which is an upgrade despite
his poor grade with New England last season), it is hard to see
a path in which New Orleans improves very much in 2025. Not only
did the Saints not bring in any potential difference-makers against
the run, but Staley is also among the least aggressive defensive
play-callers in the league. The shame of it all is that New Orleans
has a quality linebacking corps headed by the ageless Davis.
Who to target: Whomever is manning the slot. Taylor has been
picked on relentlessly for the better part of the last two seasons
and it is not hard to understand why. After surrendering 836 yards
and allowing 66.4 percent of the targets in his coverage to be
completed in 2023, those numbers increased to 998 and 71.8, respectively,
in 2024.
Who to avoid: McKinstry showed enough in the second half of his
rookie season to be considered an up-and-coming matchup problem,
although his biggest issue in 2025 might be the lack of pass rush
the front four will get (assuming Young is unable to recapture
his rookie-year form). Reid and Mathieu should continue to make
New Orleans a difficult matchup for tight ends, although the pass-rush
issues and Taylor's struggles might make it a non-issue for most
offenses.
N.Y. Giants
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Brian Burns
ED
27
6.4
61.8
Dexter Lawrence
DI
27
8.9
83.8
Roy Robertson-Harris
DI
31
6.2
56.6
Abdul Carter #
ED
21
5.4
Bobby Okereke
LB
28
7.8
7.4
68.2
71.8
Micah McFadden
LB
25
6.0
7.0
53.5
66.0
Paulson Adebo
CB
26
7.8
6.2
63.9
47.6
Deonte Banks
CB
24
5.8
5.6
50.3
52.8
Andru Phillips
Slot
23
8.0
7.4
75.8
78.1
Jevon Holland
S
25
8.3
7.8
57.1
73.4
Tyler Nubin
S
24
6.4
7.4
58.1
76.0
Rotational Players
50.1
75.7
Rakeem Nunez-Roches
DI
32
50.2
Darius Alexander #
DI
19
Jeremiah Ledbetter
DI
31
66.2
Kayvon Thibodeaux
ED
24
65.6
Chauncey Golston
ED
27
56.8
Darius Muasau
LB
24
46.8
68.1
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
LB
28
30.2
42.2
Cor'Dale Flott
CB
23
61.7
58.4
Dane Belton
S
24
61.3
64.4
DC: Shane Bowen (second year)
Run: On what is quickly becoming a star-studded front seven,
Lawrence is still the most important player - certainly against
the run anyway. Ledbetter may not be a huge addition for the defense
as a whole, but he should be a slight upgrade on early downs for
a rush defense that ranked in the bottom quarter of the NFL. Okereke,
McFadden and Muasau are unlikely to will this defense to a top-half
finish against the run, but linebacker play against the run is
not a huge issue for New York.
Who to target: Phillips allowed an unthinkable 82 percent of
the passes in his coverage to be caught as a rookie. That number
needs to drop at least 15 percent and is incredibly surprising
to see considering how high the coaching staff seems to be on
him. Banks is a dynamic talent who New York believed could be
its version of Marlon Humphrey. While he is capable of putting
it together (and should also benefit from the improved pass rush),
he has not come close to living up to his first-round draft pedigree
in 2023.
Who to avoid: If the upgraded pass rush (read: Carter) is what
it should be, then the Giants could be a very good pass defense
in 2025. Adebo missed the second half of last season with New
Orleans due to injury, but he has been a strong coverage corner
over the last 1 1/2 years. It would not be a shock if his coverage
grade skyrockets in 2025 with New York's pass rush. While safety
play was probably not the main reason New York was so good at
limiting tight end production last season (the pass rush and poor
cornerback play were a much bigger issue), Holland and Nubin could
be the main reason why tight ends struggle this year.
Philadelphia
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Nolan Smith
ED
24
7.6
74.0
Jalen Carter
DI
24
6.6
55.8
Jordan Davis
DI
25
6.2
58.8
Jalyx Hunt
ED
24
6.4
62.4
Zack Baun
LB
28
8.4
8.0
90.9
79.4
Jihaad Campbell #
LB
21
6.2
7.2
Quinyon Mitchell
CB
23
8.5
7.0
78.8
69.2
Kelee Ringo
CB
23
6.1
6.4
66.4
58.1
Cooper DeJean
Slot
22
8.6
8.2
84.2
90.4
Reed Blankenship
S
26
7.3
6.8
69.1
71.6
Sydney Brown
S
25
7.1
6.5
66.5
68.9
Rotational Players
52.2
76.9
Moro Ojomo
DI
23
58.7
Ty Robinson #
DI
24
Azeez Ojulari
ED
25
60.1
Joshua Uche
ED
26
70.2
Nakobe
Dean
LB
24
62.4
82.5
Jeremiah Trotter Jr.
LB
22
74.8
68.4
Adoree' Jackson
CB
29
64.5
85.8
Andrew Mukuba #
S
22
DC: Vic Fangio (second year)
Run: As dominant as Philadelphia's defense was near the end of
the season, it was a bit surprising to see the Eagles just slide
inside the top 10 against the run. However, stopping the run has
not been the focus of Fangio's defenses for some time. Losing
DT Milton Williams hurts the front seven as a whole, but his biggest
contribution was as a pass-rusher anyway. Ojomo and Robinson should
more than make up for his loss against the run. The Eagles should
remain a top-10 run defense based not only on the fact that Davis
and Carter will again draw so much attention up front, but also
because the team likely struck gold with Campbell in April's draft.
The combination of him and Baun should be a frightening sight
for most offenses.
Who to target: Philadelphia hit the jackpot with Mitchell and
DeJean in the draft last year. Thus, almost by default, the answer
to this question will be Ringo - assuming he holds off Jackson
- because he has only logged 214 coverage snaps through two seasons.
The trade of C.J. Gardner-Johnson to the Texans means Brown or
Mukaba must step up. Considering Gardner-Johnson graded out as
a top-10 coverage player at safety, tight ends could enjoy a bit
more success against Philadelphia this season. (This assumes DeJean
plays more slot corner than safety, which may not be a great assumption.)
Who to avoid: Mitchell played like a top-10 corner in the league
almost immediately, allowing a meager 56.8 percent of the passes
in his coverage to be completed as a rookie. It took almost two
months for DeJean to be integrated into the defense, but he balled
out when he did. While the 71.1-percent catch rate allowed is
not ideal - even for a slot corner - he did not give up a touchdown
in 606 coverage snaps.
San Francisco
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Nick Bosa
ED
27
7.4
79.9
Jordan Elliott
DI
27
5.5
53.1
Alfred Collins #
DI
23
5.8
Bryce Huff
ED
27
6
60.3
Fred Warner
LB
28
8.4
8.4
88.4
82.1
Nick Martin #
LB
22
5.7
6.1
Deommodore Lenoir
Slot
25
6.6
6.8
71.7
64.7
Renardo Green
CB
24
7.1
5.5
74.3
46.9
Tre Brown
CB
27
6
6.4
53.5
71.7
Ji'Ayir Brown
S
25
7.5
5.9
69.5
53.6
Jason Pinnock
S
26
6
6.5
45.5
59.5
Rotational Players
47.3
70.3
CJ West #
DI
23
Kevin Givens
DI
28
38.4
Mykel Williams #
ED
21
Yetur Gross-Matos
ED
27
46.6
Dee Winters
LB
24
80
51.2
Luke Gifford
LB
29
66.7
52.2
Upton Stout
CB
23
Malik
Mustapha
S
23
60.1
66.3
Richie Grant
S
27
42.5
49.2
DC: Robert Saleh (first year)
Run: The 49ers experienced enough turnover in the offseason to
render anything they did statistically in 2024 almost meaningless.
With three rookies (Collins, Williams and West) expected to see
their fair share of playing time (or potentially start in Williams'
case), there may be too many free blockers too often for Warner,
Winters and Martin to be at their best. While San Francisco will
probably be more than the sum of its parts against the run, the
49ers appear to be in for a long year in terms of stopping the
run consistently.
Who to target: While CB Charvarius Ward did not play all that
well last year (due mostly to some personal and family issues),
he had emerged as one of the top 15 or so cornerbacks in the league.
With Ward now a Colt, the honor of being San Francisco's top corner
falls on Lenoir, who is bound to struggle in 2025 as he moves
to the perimeter on a full-time basis after being a very good
slot cornerback over the last two seasons. If San Francisco decides
it would be better off not changing Lenoir's role, then Brown
will have a huge target on his back. He was average at best during
his four-year stint in Seattle. The 49ers were one of the stingier
defenses against tight ends last season, but the combination of
S Talanoa Hufanga's departure (Denver) and what will likely be
a lesser pass rush could cause San Francisco to be a bit more
susceptible to the position in 2025.
Who to avoid: Green is unlikely to move into the tier of corners
who change offensive game plans in 2025, but his rookie season
last year had to be considered a success. Some of his highlights:
a catch rate allowed of 62.9 percent and one touchdown surrendered
over his final nine games.
Seattle
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Leonard Williams
DI
31
7.8
79.5
Byron Murphy II
DI
22
5.8
53.6
Jarran Reed
DI
32
5.6
58.2
DeMarcus Lawrence
ED
33
7.7
62.4
Ernest Jones
LB
25
5.8
7.8
48.5
73.6
Tyrice Knight
LB
24
6.6
6.4
63.4
61.0
Devon Witherspoon
Slot
24
7.6
8.7
68.1
90.0
Tariq Woolen
CB
26
6.8
6.6
65.7
76.2
Josh Jobe
CB
27
5.5
5.9
49.9
64.5
Julian Love
S
27
8.2
7.9
77.4
89.5
Coby Bryant
S
26
7.2
7.6
68.0
79.5
Rotational Players
47.7
77.8
Johnathan Hankins
DI
33
36.2
Uchenna Nwosu
ED
28
72.9
Boye Mafe
ED
26
77.8
Derick Hall
ED
24
45.7
Drake Thomas
LB
25
43.9
64.2
Shaquill Griffin
CB
29
61.6
71.7
Shemar Jean-Charles
CB
27
62.8
45.6
Nick Emmanwori #
S
21
DC: Aden Durde (second year)
Run: Seattle finished in the middle of the pack against the run
but was tied for seventh in terms of most yards allowed per carry.
However, those marks only tell part of the story. Following the
team's Week 10 bye and once Jones had a chance to get familiar
with his new surroundings following the midseason trade from the
Titans, the same defense that had surrendered at least 155 yards
rushing six times through nine contests held four of its final
eight opponents to fewer than 90 yards. Outside of Jones, the
Seahawks' additions of Lawrence and Hankins should further solidify
the front seven and put Seattle in position to be one of the 10
or 12 best run defenses in the league in 2025.
Who to target: Jobe has logged a mere 508 coverage snaps since
he signed with the Eagles as an undrafted free agent in 2022.
He did not fare well in two years with Philadelphia but performed
markedly better last year with Seattle. With that said, he simply
does not possess the same athletic ability or coverage skills
as Witherspoon or Woolen.
Who to avoid: Witherspoon was not quite the stud in his first
year in HC Mike Macdonald's defense that he was during the last
year of the Pete Carroll regime, but he is still a cornerback
that receivers hope they can avoid. He spends more than half of
his time in the slot, so opposing alphas will not be able to escape
his coverage if Macdonald wants him to shadow. Woolen has not
quite been able to follow up his stellar rookie campaign (six
interceptions) in 2022, although 2024 saw him allow a catch rate
of 55.2 percent. Last year was also the second straight season
in which he yielded less than 400 yards.
Tampa Bay
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Logan Hall
DI
25
5.8
56.7
Vita Vea
DI
30
6.4
65.3
Calijah Kancey
DI
28
4.0
32.2
Haason Reddick
ED
30
5.8
56.3
Lavonte David
LB
35
6.4
7.3
56.9
77.6
SirVocea Dennis
LB
25
7.7
5.8
74.3
54.1
Jamel Dean
CB
28
7.6
7.1
75.4
69.3
Zyon McCollum
CB
26
6.9
6.4
66.1
65.2
Tykee Smith
Slot
24
7.4
7.8
70.0
90.3
Antoine Winfield Jr.
S
26
8.2
7.8
50.8
73.3
Christian Izien
S
25
7.0
6.0
55.3
67.9
Rotational Players
51.2
70.2
Greg Gaines
DI
29
65.8
Yaya Diaby
ED
26
74.8
David Walker #
ED
25
Elijah Roberts #
ED
23
Anthony Nelson
ED
28
58.1
46.5
Anthony Walker Jr.
LB
29
39.1
69.5
B. Morrison
#
CB
21
Jacob Parrish #
CB
21
Kaevon Merriweather
S
25
62.9
62.2
DC: Todd Bowles (fourth year)
Run: Tampa Bay was about average at stopping the run last year
(4.3 YPC), but its offense was so good at times that its opponents
only attempted 389 runs (third-lowest in the league). Generally
speaking, the Bucs will usually be very good at defending the
run as long as Vea is healthy. David has graded out consistently
excellent for almost 10 years and should be expected to do so
again even as he enters his age-35 season. Bowles has repeatedly
sung the praises of Dennis this offseason. It is possible that
the departure of Britt (and promotion of Dennis) is what gets
Tampa Bay back to being a top 10 rush defense.
Who to target: Parrish could win the nickel corner job in camp.
With that said, he will probably be picked on early because he
is a smallish rookie. How long that remains the case will be interesting
because he should be a good one before long. If Smith holds onto
the job, then McCollum will probably see the most throws in his
direction. Bowles' heavy-blitz scheme tends to open up opportunities
for tight ends to get fed on short-range targets, so expect that
to be the case again regardless of whether Winfield plays a full
season after he suited up for only 10 games a year ago.
Who to avoid: Dean does not get near enough credit for his consistent
good play. Durability has been a slight problem recently, but
last year's showing (specifically zero touchdowns allowed in his
coverage on 516 coverage snaps) is further proof that he is a
very good defender. Fortunately for managers, he rarely moves
off the right side of the defensive formation, so targeting matchups
for fantasy purposes will be easier to do with him.
Washington
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Deatrich Wise Jr.
ED
30
5.6
54.8
Daron Payne
DI
28
5.4
46.3
Javon Kinlaw
DI
27
5.5
50.8
Dorance Armstrong
ED
28
5.1
41.4
Bobby Wagner
LB
35
6.3
8.8
63.8
91.2
Frankie Luvu
LB
28
6.2
7.1
58.5
61.7
Marshon Lattimore
CB
29
7.2
5.4
58.0
52.8
Mike Sainristil
Slot
24
7.4
7.1
64.5
66.4
Jonathan Jones
CB
31
6.1
6.2
61.1
55.2
Will Harris
S
29
5.6
6.5
60.1
63.1
Quan Martin
S
25
6.1
6.8
59.2
66.3
Rotational Players
44.9
69.5
Jer'Zhan Newton
DI
22
46.3
Eddie Goldman
DI
31
47.5
Clelin Ferrell
ED
28
55.0
Jacob Martin
ED
29
54.9
Kain Medrano #
LB
24
Jordan Magee
LB
24
64.3
62.4
Trey Amos #
CB
23
Percy Butler
S
25
41.7
46.3
DC: Joe Whitt Jr. (second year)
Run: For all the things that went right for Washington last season,
stopping the run was not one of them. The Commanders ranked 30th
in total rushing yards allowed and tied for 28th in yards per
carry allowed (4.8). Washington will undoubtedly get the play
it needs at linebacker from Wagner and Luvu, but it is nearly
impossible to make a case that Kinlaw, Goldman and/or Wise will
be more of a force inside than DT Jonathan Allen (Vikings) was.
The Commanders desperately need Newton to play at a higher level
than he did as a rookie in 2024 and live up to his second-round
draft cost. If that does not happen, it could be another season
of giving up at least 140 rushing yards in 10 games - including
more than 200 five times (including the postseason).
Who to target: While neither Amos nor Jones should be considered
a slouch, they will inevitably be targeted more often than they
probably should considering how good Lattimore and Sainristil
are. Washington's lackluster run defense likely played a huge
role in why the Commanders did not give up more production to
the tight end position than they did a year ago. Martin and Harris
have graded out decently in coverage recently, but they figure
to be tested more often in 2025 as a result of Washington being
strong at cornerback.
Who to avoid: Lattimore played in only two regular-season games
last year for the Commanders, and it is debatable if he was fully
healthy and/or confident enough in his hamstring to be his usual
self. While durability has been a major problem for him since
2021, he can be a top-10 corner when healthy and capable of being
a major problem for receivers. Sainristil was everything the Commanders
could have hoped for and then some. Whether he lines up in the
slot or outside more often will probably depend on how quickly
Amos develops. If Amos is a Week 1 starter, then fantasy managers
would be wise to downgrade - at least slightly - receivers who
are good enough to draw shadow coverage from Lattimore and/or
work primarily from the slot.
**************
As promised, here are my projected grades for each team's defense
(pass rush, run defense and coverage).
Pass Rush Projected Grades
Team
Gr
Team
Gr
Team
Gr
Team
Gr
Steelers
32.5
Giants
30.2
Seahawks
28.4
Cardinals
27.3
Lions
31.8
Cowboys
29.7
Dolphins
28.2
Bengals
27.2
Broncos
31.2
Jets
29.5
Bears
28.2
49ers
27.1
Bills
31.1
Texans
29.5
Chargers
28.1
Titans
26.9
Eagles
30.4
Ravens
29.3
Raiders
28.1
Commanders
26.7
Rams
30.4
Vikings
29.3
Packers
28.1
Falcons
26.5
Browns
30.3
Colts
28.9
Bucs
28.0
Panthers
25.1
Patriots
30.3
Jaguars
28.5
Chiefs
27.9
Saints
24.2
Run Defense Projected Grades
Team
Gr
Team
Gr
Team
Gr
Team
Gr
Lions
79.5
Vikings
75.9
Packers
73.3
Cardinals
70.9
Seahawks
77.8
Broncos
75.8
Chiefs
73.0
49ers
70.3
Patriots
77.7
Giants
75.7
Jets
72.9
Bucs
70.2
Steelers
77.5
Titans
74.6
Texans
72.7
Dolphins
69.6
Colts
77.2
Jaguars
74.4
Falcons
72.5
Commanders
69.5
Eagles
76.9
Bears
74.1
Browns
72.0
Saints
69.5
Ravens
76.1
Rams
74.0
Bills
71.4
Cowboys
67.9
Chargers
75.9
Panthers
73.7
Raiders
71.2
Bengals
67.9
Coverage Projected Grades
Team
Gr
Team
Gr
Team
Gr
Team
Gr
Ravens
53.0
Bears
48.7
Seahawks
47.7
Titans
45.2
Broncos
52.3
Texans
48.6
Chiefs
47.5
Commanders
44.9
Eagles
52.2
Browns
48.6
49ers
47.3
Bills
44.5
Bucs
51.2
Packers
48.6
Falcons
47.1
Dolphins
44.3
Jets
50.2
Chargers
48.1
Vikings
46.9
Bengals
43.4
Giants
50.1
Patriots
48.0
Panthers
46.4
Cowboys
43.4
Steelers
50.1
Cardinals
48.0
Rams
45.7
Saints
43.3
Lions
50.0
Colts
47.9
Jaguars
45.4
Raiders
40.9
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and has appeared as a guest analyst on several national sports radio shows and podcasts, including Sirius XM's Fantasy Drive, FantasyPros and RealTime Fantasy Sports. He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.