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Down and Out



By Doug Orth | 9/26/25 |

It is nearly impossible to get to the first month of the fantasy football season without feeling the effects of a key player or two missing time due to injury. While Week 3 was not nearly as devastating from an injury perspective as some weeks in recent years have been, try telling that to the managers of CeeDee Lamb who will be without their first-round pick for at least a couple of weeks. Or anyone invested in James Conner, who was likely drafted in the fourth or fifth round as an RB2.

Without further ado, let's take a look at four of the key fantasy injuries from last weekend, how the team plans on filling the void and what fantasy managers can do to tread water while they wait for the player to return (if he can).

James Conner (foot) - out for the season

There are so many reasons why fantasy football is fun, but there are multiple instances in every season where we tend to feel conflicted. No person in their right mind roots for players to suffer serious injuries. However, most of us (and certainly the players) realize injuries are part of the game. The best we can do as fantasy managers is prepare for those injuries as best we can. With that said, the conflicted feeling I mentioned a bit ago happens when the eventuality you prepared for actually takes place, leaving your fantasy team stronger because you secured his high-end backup in the draft. The price for your "good fortune": a player left with an uncertain future as well as a team (and possibly a league) lessened by his absence.

If there is any potential comfort to be taken away from Conner's injury, it might be that he was not overly productive with his 40 touches before he went down. Only one of Conner's 32 runs this season went for more than nine yards (12 in Week 1) and only two of his eight catches went for more than five yards. Conversely, Trey Benson already has two runs of at least 29 yards (and 30 more rushing yards) on three fewer carries. He also has six catches of at least six yards (high of 12) on the same number of catches (eight). Benson was never going to take over this backfield with a healthy Conner, but it was clear from the start of the season that Arizona was being intentional about his usage. Conner's injury now gives Benson a similar kind of opportunity that Chase Brown received once Zack Moss was lost for the season last year: prove to the team that you can handle a heavy workload and you will likely be featured the following season.

*** All of Benson's stats reflect his production before kickoff of Thursday Night Football in Week 4.

How will the team fill the void? While it is never as simple as the next man up getting all of the work, Benson will almost certainly handle the lion's share of it. Emari Demercado saw one offensive snap in the first two games of the season (and seven in Week 3), so the expectation for fantasy managers should be that Benson handles about 75 percent of the rushing workload. Demercado (and maybe even Michael Carter) will likely get most of the third-down and two-minute work. Kyler Murray will almost certainly run more often as well.

How does this affect us in fantasy? Let me approach this question by providing an example from my leagues. I had Conner in two leagues. I was able to draft Benson in one of those. For the one that I already had Benson, it is pretty much business as usual - except for the fact that I should have a strong weekly RB2 now instead of a low-end RB2 who is touchdown-dependent. The other Conner team may already be beyond repair, as it lost Lamb this week as well and also has the distinction of being my only redraft team with Isiah Pacheco and Ladd McConkey on it.

One of the things I have learned in recent years is that in times of adversity (when managing a fantasy team) is to continue making a strength even stronger in hopes that you will eventually be able to trade away some of the strength to help yourself in an area of need. The best running back options at the moment in that league are true backups, such as Hassan Haskins, Devin Singletary, Kendre Miller and Will Shipley. I added Tre Tucker on waivers this week in hopes that he will help me replace Lamb. Juwan Johnson is also on that team, but the fact of the matter is neither Tucker nor Johnson is going to net me an RB1 in return.

In situations such as this one, managers sometimes have to take uncomfortable chances and almost embrace uncertainty. J.K. Dobbins could be slightly discounted based on his injury history. Jordan Mason will eventually have Aaron Jones to contend with again. Chase Brown is coming off a three-yard rushing performance and no longer operates in the great offensive environment he did less than a month ago. TreVeyon Henderson has yet to break out and may remain part of a two- or three-headed backfield. Jacory Croskey-Merritt is still resigned to committee work even after Washington traded away one player in front of him and another was lost for the season due to injury. Kyle Monangai has yet to earn meaningful work. Blake Corum is getting more work than last year, but he is still not enough to move the needle for most managers. Chances are at least one of these players is on your waiver wire. At the very least, most of them can be acquired at a reasonable cost.

When your team is in the shape that this particular one is, the goal has to be to do whatever it takes to keep your team alive as long as possible until the next wave of adversity or injury or depth-chart shakeup happens. I am not so delusional as to believe that potentially trading for Croskey-Merritt (for example) is enough to make my team a title contender quickly, but it might be enough for me to stay in the hunt until the deck is reshuffled again.

CeeDee Lamb (ankle) - likely out 2-4 weeks

As many people know by now, Lamb was tackled awkwardly on his first touch of the game on a toss play that lost one yard midway through the first quarter - one that did not count because of a holding penalty. (Congrats to you if you were able to win in spite of your first-round pick putting up a zero last week.) To be fair to the Cowboys, Lamb has rushed 57 times over his NFL career, so it is not a new thing for him to be used in that way. The same fantasy managers who are begrudging HC Brian Schottenheimer for getting Lamb hurt on a rushing attempt are the same ones who would likely be complaining if the Cowboys were not doing everything in their power to get Lamb the ball as often as possible and in any way possible.

Injury analyst and licensed physical therapist Adam Hutchinson recently shed some light on Lamb's situation, how long we should plan on being without him and how long we should expect him to be less than his usual self. Here is a quick summation: Lamb will likely be out at least one month. Once he returns, we should expect him to perform at roughly 75 percent of what he did pre-injury, likely until the end of this season.

Using Hutchinson's estimate as a guideline, this would suggest we should expect Lamb to average roughly 15 PPR points/game upon his return. The good news is that it is still WR1 territory. The bad news is that we drafted him with the hope that he would give us what Rome Odunze (20.9) is providing his managers as the overall WR3 through three weeks.

How will the team fill the void? Dallas attempted 38 passes after Lamb was injured. Jake Ferguson was targeted on 12 of them, while George Pickens was thrown to nine times. It is important to remember that one game does not come close to telling a complete story. It is also dangerous to draw sweeping conclusions based on a forced in-game adjustment, although it makes sense that Ferguson would see more targets than anyone else considering 41.7 percent of Lamb's targets this season have been within nine yards of the line of scrimmage.

While Pickens has actually been targeted at a higher rate in the short area of the field (61.9 percent for Pickens, 53.1 percent for Ferguson), Ferguson has more such targets (17-13) and an additional seven targets behind the line of scrimmage. If we expand things out to the intermediate part of the field (and also incorporate short and behind the line-of-scrimmage targets), Ferguson holds a 31-17 edge on targets less than 20 yards. Given the state of the Cowboys' offensive line right now, we probably should not expect much in the way of deep shots.

It stands to reason that if Lamb is the team's best playmaker, then the preferred plan of attack to replace him would be handing at least a part of his role to a player who has made enough of an impression on the team as a playmaker that he often has a package of plays even when everyone is healthy - KaVontae Turpin. Does that mean Schottenheimer will see it the same way? Of course not. Javonte Williams has been a pleasant surprise as a runner and receiver. Dallas could easily lean more heavily on him in an effort to reduce how much time the Cowboys' poor defense has to be on the field. Therein lies the rub, however. The defense is so bad at the moment that Dallas will have to throw to keep up at some point. All of this is to say that I think Turpin sees a much more significant bump in touches and targets than Jalen Tolbert. If we assume 11 targets per week for Lamb, three of his usual targets apiece will go to Ferguson and Turpin, two more to Pickens and Tolbert and one more to Williams. Turpin could also see another rush attempt per game more than he has previously.

How does this affect us in fantasy? The team cannot expect to replace the void any more than fantasy managers can, although a good start would be to add Turpin. Tre Tucker, who is likely owned in many leagues by now, is another alternative, and not just because he scored more than 40 fantasy points last week. Tucker is running a route on over 90 percent of drop-backs. Tyquan Thornton is probably the last decent alternative in the majority of leagues, as he is seemingly the only Chief who can create separation at the moment. Sterling Shepard is the last name I will recommend as a realistic Week 4 option. Mike Evans (hamstring) is going to be out for a bit and Chris Godwin (foot) will likely be extremely limited in the off-chance he suits up this week or next. That leaves Emeka Egbuka and Shepard to handle roughly 15 targets in the meantime. While Lamb's fantasy managers likely do not want a stash candidate at the moment, Luther Burden is someone I want to add to as many places as possible. Malik Washington is a great player to add as well. Not only can he provide get-me-by production now, but he also possesses significant upside if Tyreek Hill is traded and/or talks himself off the team.

Back to Lamb for a second. The good news is that his ankle was not trapped on the tackle and we did not lose him for the season. The bad news is we should probably expect low-end WR1 production upon his return. If there is a lesson to be learned here, it might be that Lamb's injury is a great example of why I have leaned more towards receiver-heavy starts to drafts in recent years - especially with three-receiver leagues with at least one flex. Chances are that most managers will fill their flex spot with a receiver, which means we need to have four good ones available almost every week. When one has to miss time, it can still be mostly business as usual if we have already uncovered a diamond in the rough on the waiver wire.

Mike Evans

Mike Evans (hamstring) - likely out 3-4 weeks

Evans was injured in the fourth quarter of Week 3 with what is being deemed a "mild to moderate" hamstring strain. Unfortunately, "hamstring strain" is a phrase that has become all too common in Evans' recent history, as the 32-year-old receiver has suffered eight hamstring injuries over the last 10 years. Many managers likely remember last year's strain, which caused him to miss three games. For what it's worth, it marked only the second time that he missed more than one contest because of the injury.

How will the team fill the void? What was considered a luxury draft pick in April is now the only thing keeping Tampa Bay from being almost exactly where it was last year. Chris Godwin (foot) may be able to play this week or next, but it seems extremely unlikely he will be asked to play more than a complementary role in the first week or two he is back. Even then, can Tampa Bay really expect the pre-injury version of him? Jalen McMillan (neck) is not expected back until midseason at the earliest.

Emeka Egbuka has already been a central figure in the Bucs' 3-0 start, but he will now be the unquestioned alpha for AT LEAST however much time Evans needs to recover. Joining him for the next week or two at the very least will be Sterling Shepard, who was moderately involved before Evans' injury and the only other Tampa Bay receiver or tight end outside of Egbuka or Evans to see more than one target in Week 3. Cade Otton seems almost certain to be more involved in the offense now than he has been to this point (three catches on four targets for 25 yards in Week 2, zero catches on three targets in the other two games combined).

How does this affect us in fantasy? Fantasy managers will remember Otton's three-game stretch last season during which he earned at least 10 targets in each outing, posting lines of 8-100-0, 9-81-2 and 8-77-1. While Otton probably should be stashed in the majority of leagues right now, the major differences between last year and this year are the presence of Egbuka and the absence of OC Liam Coen.

Of course, the player who benefits the most is Egbuka. For as impactful as he has been through three games, he is only averaging seven targets and 4.7 catches. Evans has drawn six more targets than the rookie (27-21) despite playing 11 fewer snaps. Baker Mayfield is averaging 33 pass attempts per game, which means Evans' absence theoretically creates nine more plays for his teammates. In the short term (and assuming Godwin is mostly a limited player for however long Evans is out), expect the Ohio State product to see at least 10 targets per game. Shepard will likely add about two targets to his average of five, which means the remaining four opportunities will either go to Godwin, Otton or result in more run plays being called. The same free-agent options I mentioned above for Lamb apply here as well.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (shoulder) - likely out 3-4 weeks

Tracy got the start for the second time this season in Week 3 (Devin Singletary surprisingly got the nod in Week 2) and was essentially New York's offense for the first 10 minutes before he took a big hit to his right shoulder. From that point on, 15 of the 19 backfield opportunities went to Cam Skattebo (including all seven of the targets).

How will the team fill the void? Likely by splitting the workload almost exactly like they did against the Chiefs. It should surprise no one if Singletary takes over Tracy's role in this offense and maybe even draws the start in each of the next two or three weeks. With that said, HC Brian Daboll is probably low-key quite happy that he has a convenient excuse to give Skattebo 70 percent of the backfield work. Singletary will likely mix in every third series, but it would not be shocking if Skattebo handled the passing-down work on those drives as well.

How does this affect us in fantasy? Tracy was not overly efficient with the 10 touches he was averaging through three contests. He also was not being counted on in very many fantasy leagues, so the impact of this injury is more about where his touches go now as opposed to any pain his managers feel over losing him for a few weeks. As a result, the move for Tracy's fantasy managers - assuming they do not have Skattebo - is to pick up Singletary if they feel the need to have another back on their bench.

The thing that should not get lost here is how much the Giants will likely lean on the running game over the next few weeks following the promotion of Jaxson Dart. While it is likely true that New York could open up the offense now that it has a more athletic quarterback on the field, Daboll also owes it to his neophyte signal-caller to make the game as simple as possible in the early going. That likely means the Giants will lean heavily on the run, which means Skattebo should be in line for 20 touches. Will they be a productive 20 touches? That part is up for debate.

Looking ahead to their Week 4 game against the Chargers, it should be noted that Los Angeles has faced a league-low 36 carries and 51 total touches from opposing running backs. (Each mark is a league low by a relatively large margin after only three games.) This is not a week I would be expecting a lot from Skattebo. Week 5 against the Saints could be a different story and it could also present managers with their best sell-high window for the Arizona State product as well. There is nothing that appeals to me about starting Skattebo against the Eagles (twice) and Broncos in Weeks 6-8. When that stretch ends, Tracy will likely be back. Will he going to be a strict handcuff to Skattebo at that point? That seems unlikely.


Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby.