It is nearly impossible to get to the first month of the fantasy
football season without feeling the effects of a key player or two
missing time due to injury. While Week 3 was not nearly as devastating
from an injury perspective as some weeks in recent years have been,
try telling that to the managers of CeeDee Lamb who will be without
their first-round pick for at least a couple of weeks. Or anyone
invested in James Conner, who was likely drafted in the fourth or
fifth round as an RB2.
Without further ado, let's take a look at four of the key fantasy
injuries from last weekend, how the team plans on filling the
void and what fantasy managers can do to tread water while they
wait for the player to return (if he can).
There are so many reasons why fantasy football is fun, but there
are multiple instances in every season where we tend to feel conflicted.
No person in their right mind roots for players to suffer serious
injuries. However, most of us (and certainly the players) realize
injuries are part of the game. The best we can do as fantasy managers
is prepare for those injuries as best we can. With that said,
the conflicted feeling I mentioned a bit ago happens when the
eventuality you prepared for actually takes place, leaving your
fantasy team stronger because you secured his high-end backup
in the draft. The price for your "good fortune": a player
left with an uncertain future as well as a team (and possibly
a league) lessened by his absence.
If there is any potential comfort to be taken away from Conner's
injury, it might be that he was not overly productive with his
40 touches before he went down. Only one of Conner's 32 runs this
season went for more than nine yards (12 in Week 1) and only two
of his eight catches went for more than five yards. Conversely,
Trey Benson already has two runs of at least 29 yards (and 30
more rushing yards) on three fewer carries. He also has six catches
of at least six yards (high of 12) on the same number of catches
(eight). Benson was never going to take over this backfield with
a healthy Conner, but it was clear from the start of the season
that Arizona was being intentional about his usage. Conner's injury
now gives Benson a similar kind of opportunity that Chase Brown
received once Zack Moss was lost for the season last year: prove
to the team that you can handle a heavy workload and you will
likely be featured the following season.
*** All of Benson's stats reflect his production before kickoff
of Thursday Night Football in Week 4.
How will the team fill the void? While it is
never as simple as the next man up getting all of the work, Benson
will almost certainly handle the lion's share of it. Emari Demercado
saw one offensive snap in the first two games of the season (and
seven in Week 3), so the expectation for fantasy managers should
be that Benson handles about 75 percent of the rushing workload.
Demercado (and maybe even Michael Carter) will likely get most
of the third-down and two-minute work. Kyler Murray will almost
certainly run more often as well.
How does this affect us in fantasy? Let me approach
this question by providing an example from my leagues. I had Conner
in two leagues. I was able to draft Benson in one of those. For
the one that I already had Benson, it is pretty much business
as usual - except for the fact that I should have a strong weekly
RB2 now instead of a low-end RB2 who is touchdown-dependent. The
other Conner team may already be beyond repair, as it lost Lamb
this week as well and also has the distinction of being my only
redraft team with Isiah Pacheco and Ladd McConkey on it.
One of the things I have learned in recent years is that in times
of adversity (when managing a fantasy team) is to continue making
a strength even stronger in hopes that you will eventually be
able to trade away some of the strength to help yourself in an
area of need. The best running back options at the moment in that
league are true backups, such as Hassan Haskins, Devin Singletary,
Kendre Miller and Will Shipley. I added Tre Tucker on waivers
this week in hopes that he will help me replace Lamb. Juwan Johnson
is also on that team, but the fact of the matter is neither Tucker
nor Johnson is going to net me an RB1 in return.
In situations such as this one, managers sometimes have to take
uncomfortable chances and almost embrace uncertainty. J.K.
Dobbins could be slightly discounted based on his injury history.
Jordan Mason
will eventually have Aaron
Jones to contend with again. Chase
Brown is coming off a three-yard rushing performance and no
longer operates in the great offensive environment he did less
than a month ago. TreVeyon
Henderson has yet to break out and may remain part of a two-
or three-headed backfield. Jacory
Croskey-Merritt is still resigned to committee work even after
Washington traded away one player in front of him and another
was lost for the season due to injury. Kyle
Monangai has yet to earn meaningful work. Blake
Corum is getting more work than last year, but he is still
not enough to move the needle for most managers. Chances are at
least one of these players is on your waiver wire. At the very
least, most of them can be acquired at a reasonable cost.
When your team is in the shape that this particular one is, the
goal has to be to do whatever it takes to keep your team alive
as long as possible until the next wave of adversity or injury
or depth-chart shakeup happens. I am not so delusional as to believe
that potentially trading for Croskey-Merritt (for example) is
enough to make my team a title contender quickly, but it might
be enough for me to stay in the hunt until the deck is reshuffled
again.
As many people know by now, Lamb was tackled awkwardly on his
first touch of the game on a toss play that lost one yard midway
through the first quarter - one that did not count because of
a holding penalty. (Congrats to you if you were able to win in
spite of your first-round pick putting up a zero last week.) To
be fair to the Cowboys, Lamb has rushed 57 times over his NFL
career, so it is not a new thing for him to be used in that way.
The same fantasy managers who are begrudging HC Brian Schottenheimer
for getting Lamb hurt on a rushing attempt are the same ones who
would likely be complaining if the Cowboys were not doing everything
in their power to get Lamb the ball as often as possible and in
any way possible.
Injury analyst and licensed physical therapist Adam Hutchinson
recently shed some light on Lamb's situation, how long we should
plan on being without him and how long we should expect him to
be less than his usual self. Here is a quick summation: Lamb will
likely be out at least one month. Once he returns, we should expect
him to perform at roughly 75 percent of what he did pre-injury,
likely until the end of this season.
Using Hutchinson's estimate as a guideline, this would suggest
we should expect Lamb to average roughly 15 PPR points/game upon
his return. The good news is that it is still WR1 territory. The
bad news is that we drafted him with the hope that he would give
us what Rome Odunze (20.9) is providing his managers as the overall
WR3 through three weeks.
How will the team fill the void? Dallas attempted 38 passes after
Lamb was injured. Jake Ferguson was targeted on 12 of them, while
George Pickens was thrown to nine times. It is important to remember
that one game does not come close to telling a complete story.
It is also dangerous to draw sweeping conclusions based on a forced
in-game adjustment, although it makes sense that Ferguson would
see more targets than anyone else considering 41.7 percent of
Lamb's targets this season have been within nine yards of the
line of scrimmage.
While Pickens has actually been targeted at a higher rate in
the short area of the field (61.9 percent for Pickens, 53.1 percent
for Ferguson), Ferguson has more such targets (17-13) and an additional
seven targets behind the line of scrimmage. If we expand things
out to the intermediate part of the field (and also incorporate
short and behind the line-of-scrimmage targets), Ferguson holds
a 31-17 edge on targets less than 20 yards. Given the state of
the Cowboys' offensive line right now, we probably should not
expect much in the way of deep shots.
It stands to reason that if Lamb is the team's best playmaker,
then the preferred plan of attack to replace him would be handing
at least a part of his role to a player who has made enough of
an impression on the team as a playmaker that he often has a package
of plays even when everyone is healthy - KaVontae Turpin. Does
that mean Schottenheimer will see it the same way? Of course not.
Javonte Williams has been a pleasant surprise as a runner and
receiver. Dallas could easily lean more heavily on him in an effort
to reduce how much time the Cowboys' poor defense has to be on
the field. Therein lies the rub, however. The defense is so bad
at the moment that Dallas will have to throw to keep up at some
point. All of this is to say that I think Turpin sees a much more
significant bump in touches and targets than Jalen Tolbert. If
we assume 11 targets per week for Lamb, three of his usual targets
apiece will go to Ferguson and Turpin, two more to Pickens and
Tolbert and one more to Williams. Turpin could also see another
rush attempt per game more than he has previously.
How does this affect us in fantasy? The team cannot expect to
replace the void any more than fantasy managers can, although
a good start would be to add Turpin. Tre Tucker, who is likely
owned in many leagues by now, is another alternative, and not
just because he scored more than 40 fantasy points last week.
Tucker is running a route on over 90 percent of drop-backs. Tyquan Thornton is probably the last decent alternative in the majority
of leagues, as he is seemingly the only Chief who can create separation
at the moment. Sterling Shepard is the last name I will recommend
as a realistic Week 4 option. Mike Evans (hamstring) is going
to be out for a bit and Chris Godwin (foot) will likely be extremely
limited in the off-chance he suits up this week or next. That
leaves Emeka Egbuka and Shepard to handle roughly 15 targets in
the meantime. While Lamb's fantasy managers likely do not want
a stash candidate at the moment, Luther Burden is someone I want
to add to as many places as possible. Malik Washington is a great
player to add as well. Not only can he provide get-me-by production
now, but he also possesses significant upside if Tyreek Hill is
traded and/or talks himself off the team.
Back to Lamb for a second. The good news is that his ankle was
not trapped on the tackle and we did not lose him for the season.
The bad news is we should probably expect low-end WR1 production
upon his return. If there is a lesson to be learned here, it might
be that Lamb's injury is a great example of why I have leaned
more towards receiver-heavy starts to drafts in recent years -
especially with three-receiver leagues with at least one flex.
Chances are that most managers will fill their flex spot with
a receiver, which means we need to have four good ones available
almost every week. When one has to miss time, it can still be
mostly business as usual if we have already uncovered a diamond
in the rough on the waiver wire.
Evans was injured in the fourth quarter of Week 3 with what is
being deemed a "mild to moderate" hamstring strain.
Unfortunately, "hamstring strain" is a phrase that has
become all too common in Evans' recent history, as the 32-year-old
receiver has suffered eight hamstring injuries over the last 10
years. Many managers likely remember last year's strain, which
caused him to miss three games. For what it's worth, it marked
only the second time that he missed more than one contest because
of the injury.
How will the team fill the void? What was considered a luxury
draft pick in April is now the only thing keeping Tampa Bay from
being almost exactly where it was last year. Chris Godwin (foot)
may be able to play this week or next, but it seems extremely
unlikely he will be asked to play more than a complementary role
in the first week or two he is back. Even then, can Tampa Bay
really expect the pre-injury version of him? Jalen McMillan (neck)
is not expected back until midseason at the earliest.
Emeka Egbuka has already been a central figure in the Bucs' 3-0
start, but he will now be the unquestioned alpha for AT LEAST
however much time Evans needs to recover. Joining him for the
next week or two at the very least will be Sterling Shepard, who
was moderately involved before Evans' injury and the only other
Tampa Bay receiver or tight end outside of Egbuka or Evans to
see more than one target in Week 3. Cade Otton seems almost certain
to be more involved in the offense now than he has been to this
point (three catches on four targets for 25 yards in Week 2, zero
catches on three targets in the other two games combined).
How does this affect us in fantasy? Fantasy managers will remember
Otton's three-game stretch last season during which he earned
at least 10 targets in each outing, posting lines of 8-100-0,
9-81-2 and 8-77-1. While Otton probably should be stashed in the
majority of leagues right now, the major differences between last
year and this year are the presence of Egbuka and the absence
of OC Liam Coen.
Of course, the player who benefits the most is Egbuka. For as
impactful as he has been through three games, he is only averaging
seven targets and 4.7 catches. Evans has drawn six more targets
than the rookie (27-21) despite playing 11 fewer snaps. Baker Mayfield is averaging 33 pass attempts per game, which means Evans'
absence theoretically creates nine more plays for his teammates.
In the short term (and assuming Godwin is mostly a limited player
for however long Evans is out), expect the Ohio State product
to see at least 10 targets per game. Shepard will likely add about
two targets to his average of five, which means the remaining
four opportunities will either go to Godwin, Otton or result in
more run plays being called. The same free-agent options I mentioned
above for Lamb apply here as well.
Tracy got the start for the second time this season in Week 3
(Devin Singletary surprisingly got the nod in Week 2) and was
essentially New York's offense for the first 10 minutes before
he took a big hit to his right shoulder. From that point on, 15
of the 19 backfield opportunities went to Cam Skattebo (including
all seven of the targets).
How will the team fill the void? Likely by splitting the workload
almost exactly like they did against the Chiefs. It should surprise
no one if Singletary takes over Tracy's role in this offense and
maybe even draws the start in each of the next two or three weeks.
With that said, HC Brian Daboll is probably low-key quite happy
that he has a convenient excuse to give Skattebo 70 percent of
the backfield work. Singletary will likely mix in every third
series, but it would not be shocking if Skattebo handled the passing-down
work on those drives as well.
How does this affect us in fantasy? Tracy was not overly efficient
with the 10 touches he was averaging through three contests. He
also was not being counted on in very many fantasy leagues, so
the impact of this injury is more about where his touches go now
as opposed to any pain his managers feel over losing him for a
few weeks. As a result, the move for Tracy's fantasy managers
- assuming they do not have Skattebo - is to pick up Singletary
if they feel the need to have another back on their bench.
The thing that should not get lost here is how much the Giants
will likely lean on the running game over the next few weeks following
the promotion of Jaxson Dart. While it is likely true that New
York could open up the offense now that it has a more athletic
quarterback on the field, Daboll also owes it to his neophyte
signal-caller to make the game as simple as possible in the early
going. That likely means the Giants will lean heavily on the run,
which means Skattebo should be in line for 20 touches. Will they
be a productive 20 touches? That part is up for debate.
Looking ahead to their Week 4 game against the Chargers, it should
be noted that Los Angeles has faced a league-low 36 carries and
51 total touches from opposing running backs. (Each mark is a
league low by a relatively large margin after only three games.)
This is not a week I would be expecting a lot from Skattebo. Week
5 against the Saints could be a different story and it could also
present managers with their best sell-high window for the Arizona
State product as well. There is nothing that appeals to me about
starting Skattebo against the Eagles (twice) and Broncos in Weeks
6-8. When that stretch ends, Tracy will likely be back. Will he
going to be a strict handcuff to Skattebo at that point? That
seems unlikely.
Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby.