THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF FANTASY ANALYSTS DO NOT CONSIDER
DEFENSIVE MATCHUPS WHEN CREATING PROJECTIONS.
Sometime between the end of the preseason and the first week
of the season, fantasy owners and analysts alike shift gears from
not caring one iota to what their players' matchups look like
to making it their primary consideration when setting about 70
percent of their lineup. A tough three- or four-game stretch for
a player at the beginning of the season or end of it shouldn't
surprise fantasy analysts, yet most of them are.
Defense may not matter as much as it used to, but let's not pretend
as if it does not matter at all. Not accounting for it on some
level suggests a belief that NFL games are like seven-on-seven
drills. I realized as early as 2004 that I didn't like the idea
of my players having to face the Ravens or the Steelers, especially
during the fantasy playoffs. Certainly, my approach has evolved
quite a bit from that initial premise, but I think my track record
of success speaks for itself (finishing in the black in each of
the 20-plus seasons I've played fantasy football) and suggests
there is substantial value in putting a fair amount of weight
into "the matchup." The key is giving potential matchups
the proper amount of weight to a player's evaluation. By itself,
it will not transform an RB3 into an every-week RB1 or turn a
perennial WR1 into a bench option, but it is helpful for fantasy
owners trying to find values.
That brings us to our focus for the next two weeks. With defenses
operating out of sub-packages (nickel, dime, quarter, etc.) almost
70 percent of the time in today's game, it makes sense to take
a look at what each team will probably look like in base and sub-package
personnel. Furthermore, it helps to have an understanding of how
each veteran defensive player who will be in those packages in
2021 graded out and/or performed last year. With the help of sites
like Pro Football Focus, Sports Info Solutions and Pro Football
Reference, we can do that.
Defense is a team endeavor, so the process is never as easy as
spotting a player with a weakness and exploiting that shortcoming
repeatedly. An important part of coaching in any sport is the
ability to maximize players' strengths and mask their weaknesses,
so players either will get help from the scheme or benched if
they continue to struggle. Nevertheless, the goal of any good
offense is to isolate the weak link in the passing defense as
often as possible or take advantage of what may be a "soft"
side of a run defense (assuming that matches up with the run-blocking
ability of the offensive line). It is also important to understand
that no defender lines up across any offensive player on every
play, so we are playing odds and not dealing with virtual certainties
(i.e. shadow cornerbacks usually only "shadow" about
50-60 percent of the time).
Let's get to some fundamental points about Preseason Matchup
Analysis before we start:
1) My color-coding system has never been about last year's results
or last year's "strength of schedule." My PMA color-coding
has always been predictive, not reactive;
2) The color-coding in this four-part series is based
on last year only because we have no information about
this season. Last year's color codes help set the stage for this
year. Film analysis and advanced analytics help us predict what
may happen.
3) Base defense is typically deployed on likely running downs,
so the content below for "Base" will be primarily how
front-seven defenders stack up against the run. Similarly, sub-packages
focus on slowing down passing games, so my thoughts for that area
will focus primarily on coverage players.
Note: Try not to get too caught up in 4-3 or 3-4 (or even
the base defense, for that matter.) Defenses rarely ever line
up in a standard package anymore and most of them use "multiple"
fronts at that. There are "over" and "under"
concepts in the front seven, for example. In the secondary, teams
are engaging in traditional man or zone coverages as well as man
match and zone match coverages. Those concepts are just the
tip of the iceberg. Fantasy managers also need to get over the
thinking that the opponent's best cover corner mostly lines up
opposite the offense's top receiver.
The purpose of this article is simple, even if the execution
of it is not: attempting to identify what defenders present fantasy
owners with an opportunity for success. There is a heavy amount
of subjectivity that goes into my color-coding when I analyze
matchups in advance of the Big Board. It is my hope this process
will reduce a lot of that and give my readers a look under the
hood, so to speak.
Key:
SHAD - A CB that shadowed
receivers in roughly half of the team's games last year and/or
is likely to do so (again) this season. Green box - Player graded 80 or higher in that
particular discipline per PFF (100 point scale) White box - Player graded between 70 or 79.9
in that particular discipline Yellow box - Player graded between 60 or 69.9
in that particular discipline Red box - Player graded 59.9 or lower in that
particular discipline
Italic (player name) - Rookie Bold print (player name) - Over 30 years of age
or will turn 30 by the start of the season
Grades - Pass rush (PR), coverage
(Cov) and run defense (RD) Catch % - Catch percentage allowed in player's
coverage Percentages (left, right, etc.) - How often a
defensive back lined up at left or right cornerback or in the
slot. For safeties, time at free safety or in the box is included
to provide insight as to how often he is asked to help against
the run as opposed to how often he plays center field.
Base: It is alarming for a defense that played
five of its 16 regular-season games against the toothless rushing
attacks of the Steelers, Jets and Dolphins last year to grade so
poorly against the run. Only two returning front-seven players finished
in the white or green (Mike Love and Joe Giles-Harris), and they
combined for 240 snaps. Granted, some of the struggles against the
run could be attributed to the proficiency of the offense, which
typically allowed the defense to take more of a relaxed approach
in the second half of several games. The Bills' effort against the
elite ground game of the Ravens in the divisional round (three points
and 150 rushing yards allowed) was proof Buffalo can do better.
Yet, nine of 19 opponents ran for at least 139 yards and two topped
200.
With largely the same cast of characters in the front four and
defensive coordinator (Leslie Frazier), who relies heavily on
softer zone coverages, the Bills have to hope their first-place
schedule - many of whom should have significantly improved rushing
attacks - don't expose their lack of size and strength week after
week. One key to avoiding a repeat of that is Oliver, who graded
out at 30.1 as a run defender after a respectable 64.4 showing
as a rookie in 2019. Another key: DT Star Lotulelei will reportedly
return after opting out last season, which would be a huge boost
against the run.
Sub: The good news is Buffalo will once again likely
rely heavily on its nickel defense, which partially explains why
they were so ineffective against the run. However, using a pure
nickel defense does not necessarily mean a team will field a bad
run defense, but a lack of disguise and creativity combined with
lighter personnel can often be too much to overcome. White did not
have his best year in 2020 but was still among the better cornerbacks
in the league; he should return to near-elite form this year if
he stays healthier than he did a season ago. He did not shadow all
that often, but the expectation should be that he will do so in
games in which the opponent has a clear alpha receiver (examples
this year would be Washington and Tennessee), especially if he does
stay healthy.
Johnson can generally be considered the weak link of the secondary,
but that is largely a reflection on the quality of his teammates
in the back third of the defense. The 2020 season marked the second
straight season Edmunds did not grade out particularly well in
coverage, and he is shaping up to be the one back-seven player
that defenses may attempt to target more often moving forward.
If opponents can avoid falling behind Buffalo by multiple scores
as often as they did last year, versatile running backs could
have a field day running on this defense and getting isolated
on Edmunds a few times in the passing game.
Base: Two unlikely youngsters stepped up to make
Miami a respectable run defense last year in 2020 second-round pick
Davis and 2019 fifth-rounder Van Ginkel. (We could also add 2018
seventh-rounder Zach Sieler to the group as well.) Although he has
graded out in the mid-to-high 60s as a run defender in each of his
last four seasons, Ogbah (275 pounds) is about 15 pounds lighter
than the prototypical 5-technique (DE in a typical 3-4 defense)
and figures to remain the target for offenses trying to run between
the tackles against Miami. (Davis and Wilkins each check in at over
310 pounds.)
The addition of McKinney from Houston should provide Miami one
of its best inside linebackers in years. Given how often the Dolphins
used one linebacker last year, they need him to return strong
from the shoulder injury that cost him 12 games in 2020. The selection
of Phillips gives the Dolphins the kind of huge and agile edge
player that seamlessly transitions from 3-4 OLB to nickel rusher
in HC Brian Flores' New England-inspired defense. Along with Ogbah,
the 215-pound Baker is the other undersized defender opponents
will try to run at with regularity.
Sub: The Dolphins did what just about any team
with two very good corners and no elite pass rushers should do.
Blitz. A lot. Only Baltimore (44.1 percent) sported a higher blitz
rate on drop-backs than Miami (40.8). Howard (89.6) had a career
year, finishing behind only Jaire Alexander (90.6) among full-time
corners in PFF's coverage grade metric. Jones had his moments in
his first year with Miami following five seasons with Dallas, but
offenses found much more success attacking him than Howard despite
the latter seeing 29 more targets. Then again, the book on Jones
has long been his inability to turn more of the passes he gets his
hands on into interceptions.
It is uncertain at this point if Holland is coming for Rowe or
McCourty's job in the base, but it should only be a matter of
time before he becomes a full-timer. Like Rowe and most of Miami's
safeties now, he offers plenty of coverage ability as a player
with some cornerback experience on his resume. Coleman is an intriguing
addition. Once upon a time in Seattle's Cover 3, he was considered
one of the league's top slot corners. He struggled mightily for
the most part in Detroit's man-heavy defense under another Bill
Belichick protégé in Matt Patricia, but he'll have
the benefit of a more effective and aggressive pass rush than
he ever had with the Lions. If he can't find the form he once
had with the Seahawks, Miami will need 2020 first-rounder Igbinoghene
to play up to his draft status after a rough rookie campaign.
If Coleman is good and Igbinoghene benefits with a full training
camp - both of which have a good chance of happening - this secondary
could be as good as any in the league.
Base: Injuries and opt-outs affected the Patriots
as much - if not more - than another team in 2020. New England
is usually one of the more difficult teams to run against for
two reasons: 1) the Patriots typically play with the lead so often
that opponents rarely have enough opportunities to post huge rushing
efforts and 2) HC Bill Belichick's front sevens usually have carry
more mass than the average defense. Expect this unit to get back
on track in 2021, as the additions of Anderson and Davon Godchaux
in free agency as well as the return of Hightower should fix what
ailed the run defense last year. Of course, that assumes Barmore
isn't an instant stud after the Patriots took what many considered
the draft's top defensive tackle.
Assuming the Patriots opt not to use Dugger in the way I have
him projected, LB Ja'Whaun Bentley may be the weakest link in
the front seven. However, the return of Hightower as well as the
combination of Belichick's defensive genius and constantly changing
schemes should make him less of an issue. Given the depth and
versatility in the secondary, Belichick could easily decide to
rely much more heavily on nickel and dime packages. (Dugger should
become a more prominent player in 2021 at Bentley's expense.)
Then again, that may happen anyway if New England's offense rebounds
and gives the defense a lead to play with more often this year.
Sub: Much like the run defense, it would be
a mistake to read too much into last year's results. Gilmore is
getting older (turns 31 in September) and saw his play drop off
from his usual standard, but how much of that was due to how little
New England had in front of him? Jackson has been a revelation
opposite Gilmore since he arrived as an undrafted free agent in
2018, while Jones finished last season strong and looks to be
a rock-solid option in the slot.
Turning 34 in August, McCourty fell off considerably last year
and could be on the verge of becoming a situational player. Mills
gives this defense the hybrid defensive back with an ability to
match up with tight ends and receivers it has not had since Eric
Rowe left. Dugger might be one of those players soon as well,
although he seemed right at home using his versatility to put
out a number of fires that cropped up on this defense in 2020.
In the end, the effectiveness of this pass defense will come down
to if Judon is the force the Patriots are paying him to be and
Barmore can wreak the same kind of havoc he did in his final games
at Alabama.
* Limited to two games in 2019 and opted out in 2020
Base: The overwhelming majority of fantasy players
will likely treat the Jets as a cake matchup. Don't join that
crowd. In one offseason, New York has drastically upgraded its
defensive line - enough so that the Jets may have the best starting
group in the division. Fatukasi has graded out in the high 80s
as a run defender in each of his last two seasons and serves as
a 320-pound anchor that makes this defense hard to run up the
middle against. Williams took a significant step forward in his
second season in multiple areas and figures to be the one player
opponents will be the most likely to adjust their game plans for,
which is quite a statement considering how good Rankins has been
for most of his career. Rankins not being the focal point of offensive
lines against the run or pass is a scary notion; having Fatukasi
and Williams attract so much attention could set him up for his
best season yet if he can stay healthy. Although he is mostly
average against the run, Lawson should give the Jets their best
pass-rushing defensive end in recent memory.
The biggest component to New York being among the best run-stuffing
units in the league may be a healthy Mosley. Prior to playing
only two games in 2019 and opting out in 2020, he was emerging
as one of the league's top three-down linebackers. Much in the
same way LB Fred Warner complemented the 49ers' talented defensive
line under then-DC Robert Saleh, Mosley could do the same for
Saleh in New York. Offenses will likely try their luck running
outside against Cashman and Davis, but it may be for naught given
how good the rest of the front seven is. The Jets were among the
stingiest run defense in 2019 and could easily get back to that
if injuries don't test their lack of depth too much.
* Limited to two games in 2019 and opted out in 2020
Sub: Saleh's staple throughout his time in San
Francisco was Cover 3, so it would be a shock if he does anything
different with the Jets. While this unit should benefit from playing
much more zone than man, a defense still needs quality corners
to hold up. Hall has the talent to be a mainstay in Saleh's defense
one day, but he's not there yet. Joyner had some good years with
the Rams but was mostly replacement-level during his two-year
stay in Las Vegas. Austin would likely be a fourth corner on at
least half of the teams in the league, so the Jets need to be
right about Carter just to get to a respectable level at cornerback.
Maye is the standout in the back third of New York's defense,
but a safety of his caliber tends to appear less impactful on
a defense that lacks quality cornerbacks. In short, expect opponents
to work over the Jets' cornerbacks as often as possible and spend
much less time targeting running backs and tight ends (due to
Mosley, Maye and Davis).
Base: Many of the Cowboys' issues on defense
last year had to do with former DC Mike Nolan refusing to simplify
his schemes - a questionable decision at best given the lack of
practice time last spring and summer. New DC Dan Quinn has long
been a Cover 3 proponent and will never be confused for someone
who makes his charges think too much on the field. Despite investing
several resources in its defense this spring, Dallas still doesn't
have that interior anchor that takes up two blockers. However,
Urban has typically been stout against the run throughout his
career and Parsons gives the Cowboys an athletic freak capable
of overcoming some shortcomings in front of him.
Lawrence has been one of the league's most well-rounded defensive
ends for some time. Basham has held up well against the run since
entering the league in 2017 and should be the favorite to play
opposite Lawrence in the base defense. It's just as well, as Dallas
would be well-served to consider Randy Gregory's presence and
potential impact as a pass-rusher as a bonus and not a necessity.
The run defense could be poised for a significant improvement
if Vander Esch and Smith can stay healthy, but part of the reason
Parsons is in Dallas now is that the former has struggled to stay
on the field. Either way, the Cowboys should be at least average
against the run this year and not the sieve they were throughout
2020.
Sub: Gregory's availability will be key. If he
proves to be dependable, Dallas will be able to threaten teams off
both edges. In Parsons and Smith, they already have two of the league's
most athletic linebackers available to run with tight ends and running
backs. For anyone who wonders why this is notable, think about how
often running backs who could catch the ball destroyed Quinn's defenses
in Atlanta. If Gregory struggles to stay on the field again, Parsons
may move up to the front four on passing downs, which would allow
offenses to find creative ways to expose Vander Esch in coverage.
Dallas is getting the talent it needs to compete in the secondary
slowly but surely, although it may not look that way until 2022
if Joseph doesn't stand out almost immediately. Diggs flashed
at times as a rookie and figures to benefit from a full offseason;
the fact he was able to record 14 passes defensed in 12 games
speaks to his ability to be disruptive and is enough reason to
believe good things are in store for him in Year 2. Former sixth-rounder
Wilson was perhaps the biggest bright spot on this otherwise dreadful
defense. Make no mistake about it though: there's not one area
in the secondary that will cause offensive coordinators to lose
sleep.
Base: The loss of Dalvin Tomlinson to the Vikings
was a blow to this defense and could knock the Giants' run defense
a few pegs. However, a front wall featuring three 300-plus pounders
(including a pair of 340-pounders in Shelton and Lawrence as well
as an emerging stud in Williams) will still be a mighty challenge
for most offenses. Shelton stunk up the joint as a run defender
in Detroit but was good - if not very good - in that area with
the Patriots and Browns over the previous four seasons. A rejuvenated
Shelton would go a long way in helping the Giants forget Tomlinson.
Carter played only five games last season, but he and Martinez
took advantage of the fact that New York has prioritized its defensive
line in recent years. Neither player is likely to become a star,
but both seem like great fits in this defense because they are
stronger in coverage but can hold up against the run because they
are protected so well. Because of the Giants' aforementioned mass
up front, Ojulari and Odenigbo will almost certainly be the target
of running games - particularly Ojulari since he is a 240-pound
rookie. That's OK; New York is counting on the duo to put an end
to its pass-rushing woes. As long as one or both are not complete
liabilities against the run and prove the team right as rushers,
the Giants will live with it.
Sub: Bradberry has emerged as one of the top corners
in the league; he is one of the few players at his position who
should strike fear into the hearts of fantasy owners with a stud
receiver opposing him. Jackson wasn't very good in the three games
he was able to suit up for in 2020, but it wasn't too long ago the
Titans had visions of him emerging as a regular shadow candidate.
If he can stay on the field - something that has been an issue for
him the last two seasons - Jackson is in a great spot to lead the
league in interceptions in 2021. Ryan may be slipping a bit in coverage
at age 30 but is still every bit as versatile as he was in his younger
days with the Patriots, usually making the transition from base
safety to nickel corner look seamless. Having a safety with cornerback
skill comes in handy against opponents who try the mismatch game
with two athletic tight ends or an Alvin Kamara-like threat out
of the backfield.
McKinney missed the first 11 weeks of his rookie season with
a foot injury and never really had much of a chance to show off
why he was so beloved at Alabama as a result. A healthy season
in 2021 could turn this secondary into an elite unit. The one
weak spot is in the slot with Holmes. Given how talented Bradberry
and Jackson are, he will probably be the busiest defensive back
in New York when the opposition uses three or more receivers.
If he doesn't hold his own out of the gate, Robinson will likely
get a chance to prove he was worth the team's second-round investment
this spring. Peppers at nickel linebacker is purely a projection
on my end; the rationale being that he is big enough to hold up
there and gives the Giants a way to utilize all of their secondary
talent at the same time.
Base: Don't get caught up in the fact the Eagles
were one of 11 teams to give up at least 2,000 rushing yards last
season. A much more important note is that Philadelphia saw opponents
run the ball against its defense 481 times (fifth-most). Those
are the kinds of rushing numbers teams allow when an offense turns
the ball over too often or fails to hit the 20-point mark in half
of its games). There should be a heavy Colts influence on this
edition of the Philadelphia defense as former Indianapolis secondary
coach Jonathan Gannon gets his first shot at running a defense
at any level. If the offense can take care of the ball just a
little bit better this year, Hargrave and Cox should bounce back
and help this unit play more like the defense that somehow managed
to hold running games below the league average yards-per-carry
mark (4.4).
The Eagles' weak link on defense year after year seems to be
at linebacker. Shaun Bradley was the only linebacker to grade
well against the run and he was limited to a mere 77 snaps. Wilson
is an upgrade over anything Philadelphia had at the position last
year, but this is a unit that doesn't hold up well against the
run or in coverage very well as a whole. Davion Taylor is a wild-card,
however. The former high school state champion sprinter was drafted
in the third round of last year's draft for his athleticism but
hardly saw the field in 2020.
Sub: Tight ends who excel on short routes and
running backs who find a way to get matched up against Edwards
or Singleton should enjoy success against Philly. Injuries decimated
the Eagles' secondary in 2020, making a unit with little depth
look pathetic at times. Slay was a great addition in terms of
the relative lack of compensation Philadelphia had to give up
for him, but last season marked the second consecutive year he
has been a league-average cover man. Maddox was limited to 10
games and not particularly effective in most of them. He has no
interceptions over the last two years despite getting targeted
113 times on 687 coverage snaps.
Nickell Robey-Coleman's departure may free up Seymour to take
over in the slot, but it seems more likely that job will be McPhearson's
as soon as he is comfortable. (The Eagles got him about 50 picks
later than they expected.) Harris' arrival should be a boon to
the defense as a whole and give Philadelphia a good chance at
limiting downfield production by field-stretching tight ends.
Unfortunately, that probably just means opponents will throw in
the direction of Maddox, Seymour and McPhearson more often.
Base: While both of the team's rushing defense
marks above (yards per game and yards per carry) were below the
league average, it is mildly surprising they weren't better. On
several other teams, Allen and/or Payne might be the focal point
of opponents' game plans. Against Washington, however, they fall
in line behind Young and Sweat. A full offseason together should
only enhance the effectiveness of the entire front and make this
defense even more menacing. Jamin Davis replaces Thomas Davis,
who finally showed his age in his only season in the nation's
capital. The younger Davis should be an immediate and perhaps
significant upgrade over the newly retired former Panther for
a defense that didn't need any more help.
The well-traveled Bostic wasn't particularly effective despite
all of the talent he had in front of him; he is easily the weakest
link in the front seven. It should come as no surprise if Washington
moves Collins up to linebacker on passing downs to reduce the
number of opportunities opponents have at targeting Bostic with
scatbacks and/or tight ends. With that said, Collins hasn't graded
out particularly well in coverage since joining the Football Team.
Sub: Very few rookie linebackers have the combination
of talent and opportunity to walk into an unquestioned every-down
role on such a good defense, but Jamin Davis should be one of
those exceptions. It would be an upset if he does not replace
Bostic or Holcomb in nickel and dime situations by the end of
September at worst. The Football Team did well to snag Jackson
in free agency to replace Ronald Darby, who performed admirably
in his only year in Washington. Truth be told, there's reason
to believe Jackson will be an upgrade. He was considered a potential
shadow corner in his early days with the Bengals, and one can
only help but wonder if his up-and-down play over the last three
years was the result of Cincinnati struggling to put pressure
on the quarterback. If Jackson rediscovers his old form, this
defense could be terrifying.
Fuller allowed a completion rate of only 52.9 percent on throws
in his coverage last season. Moreland underperformed slightly
in 2020 but has flashed enough to believe the coaching staff will
stick with him. Neither Everett nor Apke separated himself last
season, perhaps opening the door for McCain to be a more significant
contributor. Considering how good the rest of the defense is,
it would not be surprising to see offenses prioritize stretching
the seam with the most athletic tight end on their roster.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and has appeared as a guest analyst on several national sports radio shows and podcasts, including Sirius XM's Fantasy Drive, FantasyPros and RealTime Fantasy Sports. He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
