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Preseason Schedule Analysis
NFC East & NFC North Breakdowns
8/11/09

NFC East: DAL | NYG | PHI | WAS
NFC North: CHI | DET | GB | MIN

After spending the last two weeks (AFC East/North | AFC West/South) lobbying fantasy owners to consider the schedule a vital part of their draft preparation, I feel it is now time to inform each of you why it is so important to take in as much of the preseason news as possible, including the injuries that occur before teams even start playing exhibition games and, maybe more importantly, what they mean to the player’s team and their opponents. In just the last week, a handful of teams lost key cogs for the season: Philadelphia (MLB Stewart Bradley), Carolina (DT Maake Kemoeatu), Cincinnati (TE Reggie Kelly) and Atlanta (WR Harry Douglas). On the surface, none of these injuries seem to be worth worrying about for most fantasy owners. But football - more than any other sport - is a highly dependent game in regards to how a loss or two to one part of the team can impact the entire team.

So before I continue, let's take a deeper look into what impact each of these injuries may have on their teams:

Stewart Bradley - In Philly's defensive scheme, the MLB is in some regards an extension of the defensive line. The Eagles ideal MIKE backer is usually big and a terrific run-stopper (think Jeremiah Trotter in his prime). At 6-4, 260 pounds, Bradley definitely fit the bill as a prototypical Philly 'backer, but the Eagles will now be hoping 5-11, 246-pound Joe Mays will be able to step up, at least on a two-down basis. What this means is that, along with the passing of DC Jim Johnson and loss of S Brian Dawkins, fantasy owners should no longer regard Philadelphia as an elite run defense this season. That should come as great news for owners of Clinton Portis, Marion Barber, and Brandon Jacobs – just to name a few.

Maake Kemoeatu - The loss of this 6-5, 345-pound run-plugger likely will contribute to another sacking of a good run defense from last season. In one of the two games Kemoeatu missed last season, the Giants rolled up 301 rushing yards vs. Carolina. Certainly, not every game will go that way, but it is pretty damning to consider that before that game, the Panthers had not given up even half of that rushing total against any of their other opponents. While his loss will greatly hurt MLB Jon Beason's ability to move freely from sideline to sideline, a residual impact could be felt on the Panthers' running game as they probably won't be able to run the ball 504 times again this season if the defense can't stop opponents from running on them. Thus, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart could both suffer.

Reggie Kelly - One of the best run-blocking TEs in the league, Kelly's loss is a huge blow to the Bengals, who desperately want to balance out their potential for a high-flying passing game with a physical running game. Though many people probably are not all that familiar with Kelly, his blocking prowess contributed to Rudi Johnson's best seasons in Cincy. Without Kelly, the Bengals may be primed to throw much more than they hoped to this season. While that is good for a handful of Cincinnati WRs and Carson Palmer, Cedric Benson takes a fantasy hit.

Harry Douglas - Douglas is the first of the players listed here that would have found his way onto many non-IDP fantasy rosters as a reserve this summer. Just like the Bengals’ Chris Henry - a WR with a non-starting role - I was high on Douglas to post fairly big numbers in 2009. His loss secures Michael Jenkins as a low-end WR3 or solid WR4 in 12-team leagues and makes Tony Gonzalez and Jerious Norwood even more valuable as many of the short passes Douglas would have seen now figure to go the direction of Gonzo or Norwood.

I mention the above players to not only inform of the impact their injuries may have on their own team, but to also alert (or remind) fantasy owners that in just over a week, we have seen four injuries that will affect a number of player values this season. Next week will likely bring us just as many. The point to be made is projecting player stats is an ever-evolving and continual task - especially during the preseason - so the 10th-best RB one day in August may become the 20th-best prospect if one of his All-Pro lineman gets hurt.

Bear in mind that while the final numbers are important, they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game. For those unfamiliar with the way I project player stats and individual week-to-week consistency (or for those who need a refresher), please give PSA: RB article a read for an introductory course in Preseason Schedule Analysis. By now, I'm hoping that each of you have a pretty good understanding of my methodology, so let's see how the NFC East and NFC North shake down in 2009.

Note: The grey highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game.

NFC EAST

 Dallas Cowboys
  Totals TB NYG CAR DEN KC bye ATL SEA PHI GB WAS OAK NYG SD NO WAS
(Run)   4.2 3.8 4.4 5 4.9   4.6 4.2 4 4 3.7 4.9 3.8 4.1 4.1 3.7
(Pass)   7.4 6.6 6.3 6.8 7.5   7.1 7 6.4 6.8 6 6.9 6.6 6.6 6.7 6
                                   
T Romo 3530 235 220 215 190 245   300 250 220 185 255 270 200 275 255 215
TD 21 2 1 1 2 2   3 2 0 2 1 1 1 1 2 0
INT 14 0 1 2 0 1   1 1 1 0 0 1 2 1 1 2
Ru Yards 80 5 10 10 0 5   5 0 10 0 15 0 10 0 10 0
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
                                   
M Barber 975 75 50 80 115 55   60 40 65 40 50 125 25 75 65 55
Ru TD 10 1 0 1 2 0   1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0
Re Yards 395 25 35 15 10 25   30 45 30 5 25 0 35 50 40 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 48 3 4 2 1 4   4 3 4 1 4 0 5 6 4 3
                                   
F Jones 465 45 15 60 55 70   55 45 20 25 15 60 0 0 0 0
Ru TD 3 0 0 1 0 1   0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 115 15 0 5 20 0   15 25 0 5 0 30 0 0 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 15 2 0 1 3 0   2 2 0 1 0 4 0 0 0 0
                                   
T Choice 410 15 15 0 35 20   15 60 25 25 20 40 30 45 40 25
Ru TD 3 0 0 0 1 0   0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 50 0 10 0 0 5   0 5 5 0 0 5 0 5 10 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 0 1 0 0 1   0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1
                                   
R Williams 895 65 45 70 35 105   75 45 55 45 75 30 55 75 70 50
Re TD 7 1 0 1 0 1   1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 69 5 3 6 2 8   5 3 6 5 7 2 3 6 5 3
                                   
P Crayton 535 35 30 25 35 35   40 45 30 50 40 15 40 30 40 45
Re TD 2 0 0 0 1 0   0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 42 3 3 2 4 3   3 4 2 3 2 1 3 2 3 4
                                   
M Austin 305 15 25 20 30 0   35 25 10 15 25 45 0 25 15 20
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0   1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 24 1 3 1 2 0   2 3 1 2 2 2 0 2 1 2
                                   
J Witten 905 70 45 55 60 50   80 35 60 45 65 110 60 75 55 40
Re TD 7 1 0 0 1 1   1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0
Rec 84 6 5 5 6 5   7 4 6 5 5 10 5 6 5 4
                                   
M Bennett 330 10 30 25 0 25   25 25 30 20 25 35 10 15 25 30
Re TD 4 0 1 0 0 0   0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 35 1 3 2 0 3   3 3 4 2 2 4 1 1 3 3

It seems as though every team talks about running the ball, being more physical or something of the like every offseason. The Cowboys will be one of the few teams that follow through on that assertion in 2009. Fortunately, the philosophy change is both "Romo-friendly" and timely after looking at the schedule. Only four matchups - two each vs. the Giants and Redskins - appear to be worth avoiding, although I do expect the run defenses of Seattle, San Diego and New Orleans to improve dramatically. If all of those teams do indeed bounce back, the second-half schedule could be a bit trickier than what it looks like right now. The good news, however, is that Dallas has a very good run-blocking line and one that can neutralize most defensive fronts. Further consider the Cowboys get four games against the AFC West and two more against defenses (Tampa Bay and Carolina) early on that figure to be something less than what they were a season ago vs. the run. While I don't expect a 2008 Ravens-like 592 carries out of the running game, the Cowboys have the defense and the depth at RB to exceed the 500-carry mark if they choose. (As a point of reference, Dallas ran just 401 times in 2008.) A further point of reference is that of the seven teams that ran the ball more than 500 times last season, each team ran for at least 2,199 yards and all but one team (New England) made the playoffs. The main question is: how will the workload be split? If the Cowboys do hit 500 carries, I imagine Marion Barber will see about 225 carries, Felix Jones about 150 and Tashard Choice about 125, making for a 45-30-25 split with Barber getting most of the goal-line work. As you can plainly see, I don't think Jones will make it though the season yet again, but if he does, feel free to give him about 600-700 yards rushing. I don't think, however, he has the build necessary to become a full-time complement to Barber, thus giving Choice some definite value. Interestingly, an injury to either Barber or Jones greatly benefits Choice, but not either of the two "starters". In other words, Choice is best suited for the physical work should Barber go down while he would take on the Julius Jones-role in this offense if Felix were injured.

Coat-tailing off the seven 500-carry teams I mentioned above, only the Giants and Patriots attempted more than 453 passes in 2008. Using Romo's career 8.1 YPA as a barometer, that number of attempts would give Romo roughly 3,669 yards in 2009. Assuming both Roy Williams and Jason Witten hit the 1,000-yard mark this season (far from a given), that number still seems a bit high for Romo. Add in that Dallas no longer can count on Terrell Owens for 10 TDs this season and one has to wonder just how far Romo's fantasy stock will fall. Five red matchups appear on his schedule, but a deeper look reveals that each of the final four teams on Dallas' schedule is a heavy-blitzing team (or will be this season). The Giants and Redskins will be tough regardless, but I don't foresee fantasy-playoff worthy performances coming vs. the Chargers in Week 14 or on the road in New Orleans in Week 15. Before that, however, Romo should be serviceable but he isn't likely to fulfill his current ADP of 5.11. Because this offense will be run-heavy and have two TEs on the field a lot of the time, don't look for much WR fantasy value outside of Roy Williams and maybe Patrick Crayton, if the latter locks down the WR2 spot. I do expect a substantial increase in production from backup TE Martellus Bennett, who finished as the 24th-best TE in fantasy last season despite only catching 20 passes (on 27 targets). Both those numbers could easily double - in fact, the second-year TE could actually end up gnawing away at the value of Jason Witten just a bit.

 N.Y. Giants
  Totals WAS DAL TB KC OAK NO ARI PHI SD bye ATL DEN DAL PHI WAS CAR
(Run)   3.7 4 4.2 4.9 4.9 4.1 4.4 4 4.1   4.6 5 4 4 3.7 4.4
(Pass)   6 6.1 7.4 7.5 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.4 6.6   7.1 6.8 6.1 6.4 6 6.3
                                   
E Manning 3335 225 190 280 185 210 265 205 220 210   250 170 230 190 240 265
TD 19 1 0 1 1 2 3 1 1 2   2 0 2 1 1 1
INT 10 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 1   0 1 0 0 2 1
                                   
B Jacobs 1070 85 70 85 75 110 45 0 0 90   70 115 90 100 65 70
Ru TD 13 0 2 1 1 2 0 0 0 1   0 3 1 1 0 1
Re Yards 105 10 0 15 5 0 10 0 0 15   10 5 10 0 20 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 17 1 0 2 1 0 2 0 0 3   1 1 2 0 3 1
                                   
A Bradshaw 760 20 40 55 80 30 60 75 45 25   100 50 30 30 35 85
Ru TD 5 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0   1 0 0 0 0 1
Re Yards 250 15 10 25 0 10 35 0 40 30   15 20 10 15 10 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 27 2 2 3 0 1 4 0 3 1   2 3 1 1 2 2
A Brown/                                  
D Ware 380 25 15 30 20 15 20 55 75 25   0 35 15 30 0 20
Ru TD 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0   0 1 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 50 0 0 10 0 5 0 10 5 0   0 0 5 10 0 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0   0 0 1 1 0 1
                                   
S Smith 750 55 30 60 45 55 70 40 25 60   45 60 30 25 70 80
Re TD 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1   0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 62 5 4 6 3 4 5 3 4 6   3 5 2 2 4 6
                                   
D Hixon 740 65 40 80 50 30 80 65 55 15   75 20 55 45 30 35
Re TD 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0   1 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 43 3 3 5 2 1 3 4 5 1   6 1 3 3 1 2
                                   
H Nicks 530 20 40 15 35 0 40 45 30 15   50 35 65 20 65 55
Re TD 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0   1 0 1 0 0 1
Rec 38 1 3 1 3 0 3 5 2 1   4 3 4 1 3 4
                                   
S Moss 380 25 35 30 20 45 10 20 35 0   30 10 35 50 15 20
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 32 2 3 2 2 4 1 2 3 0   3 1 2 4 1 2
                                   
K Boss 200 10 0 15 10 30 5 25 0 25   15 5 20 5 0 35
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0   0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 23 1 0 1 1 3 1 3 0 2   2 1 3 1 0 4
                                   
T Beckum 330 25 35 30 20 35 15 0 30 50   10 15 0 20 30 15
Re TD 4 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1   0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 33 3 3 4 2 2 3 0 3 4   1 2 0 2 3 1

Considering the Giants rushed for over 200 yards in a game six times last season (with four of those performances coming against good or great run defenses like Dallas, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Carolina), it isn't too hard to imagine that with most of the cast returning for another season New York could have similar success running the football in 2009. If the Giants were able to average five yards/carry on 502 carries after playing six games vs. their own division and two more against the likes of the Ravens and Steelers, I can't imagine how the NFC South and AFC West will fare much better. In fact, on this year’s slate, only the Redskins should give fantasy owners pause. The injuries mentioned in the opening figure to remove three potential roadblocks (Philly twice, Carolina in Week 16) - so if Brandon Jacobs can somehow put together a full 16-game season (I have him missing two games and part of a third) - he is line for a career year, as is Ahmad Bradshaw. While I'm not going to call Bradshaw the next Derrick Ward (as he has to fend off the likes of Danny Ware and Andre Brown for that kind of role), the truth of the matter is that with 100 or so more carries than he had in 2008, he could give the Giants their second pair of 1,000-yard rushers in as many seasons. At this point, I have New York averaging 147 yards/game on the ground - ten less than a season ago - so even though I thought I was being liberal in my projections with the RBs, I may need to increase my expectation as we move deeper into the preseason.

It's a good thing the Giants have such a dominating running game (and that Eli Manning just got his big new contract) because I'm not sure that New York has the personnel necessary to threaten many of its opponents in the passing game consistently. The Giants have repeatedly expressed their desire this offseason to hit on more deep throws, but only Domenik Hixon has proven he can do that on a fairly regular basis. Furthermore, Steve Smith has established himself as Manning's favorite target and he seems more comfortable in the short-to-intermediate passing game. As a result, I have New York pegged for seven red matchups in the passing game and the same spread-the-wealth approach that occurred after Plaxico Burress' departure in 2008. Worse yet, the first two and final four matchups all qualify as difficult matchups - especially for a team without an elite WR - so it would be hard to recommend Smith, Hixon or any other Giants WR for that matter during the most important times of the fantasy season. So when it comes right down to it, trying to count on a Giants WR will be difficult. I'm a fan of Travis Beckum's abilities and feel that he ultimately will steal whatever fantasy value Kevin Boss had, but he'll need a strong showing in the preseason to fulfill my expectations for him. No matter how difficult the opponent, New York will probably be happy to run the ball and let the defense do its thing. Manning figures to connect on the deep ball a few times this season, but it probably won't happen with enough regularity or predictability for fantasy owners. If owners must own a member of this passing game, eye Manning as a mid-range QB2 or Smith as a low-end WR3.

 Philadelphia Eagles
  Totals CAR NO KC bye TB OAK WAS NYG DAL SD CHI WAS ATL NYG SF DEN
(Run)   4.4 4.1 4.9   4.2 4.9 3.7 3.8 4 4.1 3.8 3.7 4.6 3.8 4 5
(Pass)   6.3 6.7 7.5   7.4 6.9 6 6.6 6.1 6.6 6.8 6 7.1 6.6 7 6.8
                                   
D McNabb 3655 230 280 215   240 190 215 210 260 270 260 195 235 295 270 290
TD 24 2 3 2   1 1 1 2 2 1 1 0 2 2 1 3
INT 11 1 1 0   1 2 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 1 1 0
Ru Yards 115 15 0 0   10 0 15 20 15 10 5 0 10 10 5 0
Ru TD 1 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
                                   
B Westbrook 840 45 40 80   65 105 35 45 60 75 0 75 0 25 75 115
Ru TD 7 0 0 1   0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1
Re Yards 420 30 40 10   35 20 55 25 35 25 0 5 0 60 35 45
Re TD 4 0 0 0   0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1
Rec 49 5 4 2   4 2 7 3 3 4 0 1 0 7 4 3
                                   
L McCoy 730 65 55 60   30 45 55 30 35 15 80 30 110 40 35 45
Ru TD 5 1 0 1   0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 220 15 20 5   15 20 10 5 15 5 35 20 30 10 5 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 33 2 2 1   2 3 2 1 3 1 5 3 4 1 1 2
                                   
D Jackson 1065 50 80 100   55 20 35 70 90 60 80 60 115 75 120 55
Re TD 6 0 1 1   0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
Rec 76 4 6 6   5 2 3 6 5 4 6 4 7 6 8 4
                                   
K Curtis 670 60 25 35   40 35 35 25 40 80 35 50 65 30 45 70
Re TD 5 1 0 0   1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Rec 50 3 2 3   3 3 2 1 4 6 3 4 5 3 3 5
                                   
J Avant 415 35 55 25   45 50 10 25 0 45 15 10 0 40 25 35
Re TD 1 0 1 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 35 3 4 2   3 5 1 2 0 3 2 1 0 4 2 3
                                   
J Maclin 450 10 35 25   10 30 40 10 60 20 35 25 10 55 35 50
Re TD 4 0 1 0   0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 40 1 3 2   1 2 4 1 5 2 3 3 1 5 3 4
                                   
B Celek 415 30 25 15   40 15 30 50 20 35 60 25 15 25 5 25
Re TD 4 1 0 1   0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 43 3 2 1   3 2 4 6 2 4 7 2 2 2 1 2

For any fantasy owner that doesn't mind securing WR and RB talent in the first four rounds and waiting a bit for a QB, Donovan McNabb should once again be a nice consolation prize. Not only should he give his owners top-notch production for a medium-sized draft choice price, but he and his WRs get a couple of pretty nice matchups to wrap up the fantasy season when they host the Niners and Broncos in Weeks 15-16. Unlike most cold-weather teams, there's little reason to worry about the Eagles turning to the running game in the snow as HC Andy Reid has proven time and time again that his team will pass no matter how warm or cold it is (54:46 pass-run split since 2004 with no fewer than 544 pass attempts in any season). So while McNabb has turned into more of a pocket passer over the years, he has evolved into a much better QB. After turning in his first full season in four years in 2008, missed games should be less of a concern, but it is clear from his 5.12 ADP that his potential owners aren't quite convinced. However, consider that with an aging pair of tackles last season, McNabb was sacked just 23 times last season. Thus, assuming new LT Jason Peters returns to elite status and proves last season's disturbing play (was charged with allowing more sacks than any other lineman in 2008) had more to do with his contract situation than anything else AND new RT Shawn Andrews can carry over his play from the inside (RG) to the outside, McNabb's chances of getting hurt should be slim. From Weeks 7-14, Philly will meet all the red matchups and considering the Eagles' passing game numbers in difficult matchups last season, McNabb and DeSean Jackson should be solid plays just about every week. I don't expect otherworldly numbers from rookie Jeremy Maclin, but he could easily move into fantasy WR3 territory should someone like Kevin Curtis miss an extended amount of time. Otherwise, it would not come as any surprise to me if Brent Celek emerged as a weekly play at some point this season. His performance in the playoffs spoke not only to his ability to produce, but also to the trust McNabb has in him. I have him pegged for a season similar to L.J. Smith in 2006 (50-611-5) and believe his current ADP of 13.08 is about three rounds too low.

The running schedule looks very similar to the passing games' slate. Unlike the passing game, the running game won't be as matchup-proof as Brian Westbrook has made it in recent years. There was already a plan in place to reduce the veteran's workload, however, the team added rookie LeSean McCoy in the draft. It’s a good thing, because offseason ankle surgery has turned Westbrook into even more of an injury risk than he usually is – he has yet to play a full 16-game season in his career. When healthy, Westbrook is a PPR dynamo who seems to produce at least 100 total yards/game regardless of the opponent (in 99 career games, he's actually averaged 94 yards/game from scrimmage). With Westbrook turning 30 before the start of the season and considering his propensity for injury, Westbrook should not be counted on for more than 12 games, making McCoy an interesting option for any owner, not just Westbrook owners. The one benefit of this development is that Westbrook comes as cheap as he has in years, meaning it isn't out of the question to use him as a RB2 in 12 teams - an exciting proposition for those owners who like to go RB-RB with their first two picks. Whichever back is in the Eagles backfield this season, expect him to produce against a schedule that features some of the league's weaker defenses of the AFC West and NFC South.

 Washington Redskins
  Totals NYG STL DET TB CAR KC PHI bye ATL DEN DAL PHI NO OAK NYG DAL
(Run)   3.8 4.6 4.7 4.2 4.4 4.9 4   4.6 5 4 4 4.1 4.9 3.8 4
(Pass)   6.6 7.6 7.9 7.4 6.3 7.5 6.4   7.1 6.8 6.1 6.4 6.7 6.9 6.6 6.1
                                   
J Campbell 3240 235 230 215 240 165 220 170   280 220 215 175 225 210 195 245
TD 19 1 1 2 1 1 2 0   3 0 1 0 2 2 1 2
INT 11 2 0 0 1 2 0 1   0 0 1 1 1 2 0 0
                                   
C Portis 1245 70 120 105 80 90 110 110   75 90 100 30 60 85 55 65
Ru TD 9 0 1 2 0 1 0 1   0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1
Re Yards 160 10 15 0 10 5 10 20   10 5 0 25 15 5 15 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 25 1 2 0 2 1 2 3   1 1 0 4 2 1 3 2
                                   
L Betts 480 25 35 15 35 20 55 15   40 65 20 40 35 25 10 45
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0   0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 90 5 5 0 10 0 5 0   10 5 20 5 10 0 5 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 16 1 1 0 2 0 1 0   2 1 3 1 2 0 1 1
                                   
S Moss 790 55 40 110 65 35 75 45   80 25 65 15 35 10 55 80
Re TD 5 0 0 1 0 0 1 0   1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Rec 67 4 5 7 5 4 6 4   5 3 5 3 4 1 6 5
                                   
A Randle El 325 30 20 15 15 0 40 15   25 20 0 30 30 40 25 20
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 31 3 1 2 1 0 5 1   2 4 0 2 2 4 2 2
                                   
D Thomas 685 45 60 30 55 30 25 50   65 40 35 45 70 35 50 50
Re TD 5 0 1 0 0 1 0 0   1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Rec 52 3 4 2 3 2 2 5   5 3 3 4 6 3 4 3
                                   
M Kelly 220 10 20 0 0 15 25 5   15 25 0 20 20 50 15 0
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 20 1 2 0 0 2 2 1   1 2 0 2 2 4 1 0
                                   
C Cooley 820 70 55 40 85 55 40 25   70 85 70 35 35 65 30 60
Re TD 6 1 0 0 1 0 0 0   1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0
Rec 72 6 6 3 8 6 4 2   5 6 7 3 2 4 4 6
                                   
F Davis 150 10 15 20 0 25 0 10   5 15 25 0 10 5 0 10
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 18 1 3 2 0 3 0 1   1 2 2 0 1 1 0 1

One of the many reasons I believe the PSA is such a strong tool is that I can easily see what players I want to begin my season with...and what players I want to end my season with. One glance at the Redskins' fantasy schedule should quickly reveal that I feel Washington players fall under the former category. With an ADP of 2.10, Clinton Portis is going later than he has in some time. As much as I would like to believe that his stock has fallen because owners have taken a look at Weeks 15-16, I tend to believe his ADP is a reflection of the second-half fade that affected the entire team in 2008. (Just how bad was it? Portis averaged five yds/carry through the first half but managed just 3.5 YPC in the second half of the season.) While it is easy to suggest that Portis simply tired and "must be wearing down", the more rational explanation for the soon-to-be 28-year-old's late-season demise was that the weaker run defenses of the Saints, Rams, Browns and Lions during the first eight games were replaced with the Steelers, Ravens, Cowboys, Bengals and Eagles in the second set of eight contests. (Look at the schedule people!) As my loyal readers already know (or have already figured out), I'd much rather have my RB's second-half schedule all white or green. Of the teams that appear on the Redskins' schedule after their Week 8 bye, only Denver and Oakland stand out as opponents who Portis should be able to handle with some degree of ease. Atlanta is also a possibility to join the Broncos and Raiders, but the point to be made is that after Week 10 vs. Denver, expect the running game to struggle. To what degree the running game will struggle will depend on just how much HC Jim Zorn allows Jason Campbell to open up the passing game in the contests that Portis and Ladell Betts can't do it on their own.

The story for Campbell and his crew is much the same as it is for the running game, but with a bit more of gloom-and-doom. Santana Moss' play tends to wane in the second half and he isn't getting any younger. The Redskins have yet to find an effective complement to him, making things all the more difficult for Moss to pace himself. Worse yet, Chris Cooley managed just one TD on 83 catches in 2008. And just as I mentioned above for the running game, the final six weeks of the fantasy schedule will not give this team much of a break. In that time, Washington will face Dallas twice and the Giants and Eagles once. And it doesn't stop there, even in the inconspicuous matchups vs. the Saints and Raiders; Moss will likely be facing CB Nnamdi Asomugha one week and stud rookie CB Malcolm Jenkins or maybe emerging second-year CB Tracy Porter in the other. In short, don't expect Moss to guide your fantasy team to a title. On the positive side, Devin Thomas looks like he is ready to emerge from the pack and be the big physical WR that every West Coast offense needs. One also has to figure that Cooley will find himself in the end zone a few more times this season since he scored at least six times in each of his four previous seasons. Considering Cooley has led the team in receptions in each of the last three seasons, he's about as solid of a bet as there is for a player with an ADP of 7.11. It is with the likely emergence of Thomas and steady hands of Cooley that I feel pretty confident about Campbell thriving in his second year under Zorn, carrying on his success that he enjoyed through the first half of last season and becoming a strong QB2 in 2009.

NFC North

 Chicago Bears
  Totals GB PIT SEA DET bye ATL CIN CLE ARI SF PHI MIN STL GB BAL MIN
(Run)   4 3.4 4.2 4.7   4.6 4 4.3 4.4 4 4 3.8 4.6 4 3.8 3.8
(Pass)   6.8 5.6 7 7.9   7.1 6.3 7.2 6.7 7 6.4 6.6 7.6 6.8 6.2 6.6
                                   
J Cutler 3390 225 150 170 250   255 215 295 265 280 155 245 245 220 215 205
TD 22 2 1 0 2   1 1 3 2 1 0 3 2 1 1 2
INT 15 2 1 2 0   0 1 0 2 1 1 2 1 0 2 0
Ru Yards 145 5 5 15 10   15 5 0 10 15 15 0 5 15 20 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
                                   
M Forte 1190 75 55 80 105   85 75 60 80 90 120 65 85 70 60 85
Ru TD 9 1 0 1 1   0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 1 0
Re Yards 345 25 5 20 15   40 30 20 55 15 5 20 35 20 15 25
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0   0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 54 4 2 4 3   5 3 4 6 2 1 4 5 3 4 4
                                   
K Jones 450 30 20 30 50   30 15 25 40 20 45 25 30 25 30 35
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 80 5 10 0 5   0 5 5 0 15 25 0 0 5 5 0
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 1 1 0 1   0 1 1 0 2 3 0 0 1 1 0
                                   
D Hester 850 45 25 35 80   75 45 100 75 50 45 70 60 45 70 30
Re TD 5 0 0 0 1   0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 65 4 2 3 5   6 3 6 4 5 4 6 5 4 4 4
                                   
E Bennett 735 55 35 55 40   55 50 60 40 70 30 55 40 50 65 35
Re TD 4 1 0 0 0   0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 58 4 3 6 3   3 4 5 3 5 2 4 3 4 6 3
                                   
R Davis 285 15 10 0 30   15 25 25 40 20 0 20 15 25 15 30
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 27 2 1 0 4   2 2 1 3 2 0 3 1 3 1 2
                                   
G Olsen 890 70 50 45 55   70 55 85 30 100 25 60 85 40 45 75
Re TD 7 1 0 0 0   1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1
Rec 74 5 4 4 5   8 6 7 2 7 2 4 6 3 5 6
                                   
D Clark 205 10 15 15 25   0 5 0 25 10 25 20 10 35 0 10
Re TD 3 0 1 0 0   0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 21 1 3 2 3   0 1 0 2 1 2 1 2 2 0 1

While many people will keep tabs on the Kyle Orton vs. Jay Cutler battle week-by-week, I'm not sure I want either one leading my fantasy team into the postseason. Since I covered Orton last week, I'll just move on to Cutler, who has the distinct pleasure of planning how to attack Packers DC Dom Capers' fire zones in Week 14 at Soldier Field before heading off to Baltimore to try to dissect the always-menacing Ravens defense. Last but not least, the Bears will be forced to show up in Week 16 at home against division rival Minnesota, which promises to be another chilly affair. In the 13 weeks leading up to that stretch of games, Cutler should enjoy a moderate amount of success as the schedule's only speed bumps appear to be within the first three weeks of the season. While I do believe that Arizona and Cincinnati may ultimately prove to be difficult to throw against as well, I have identified only three teams in the first 12 games of the season that stand a good chance of holding Cutler down. The same goes for most of the rest of the passing game. There is little doubt Devin Hester could emerge as the first viable fantasy WR Chicago has produced since Marty Booker, but I'm not going to give him the benefit of doubt against the likes of Marcus Trufant, Asante Samuel or the Steelers defense quite yet. The same can be said for Earl Bennett. I will give some leeway to Greg Olsen, however, who has enjoyed quite the offseason and is rising quickly up fantasy cheat sheets. With Cutler under center and the coaching staff looking for new ways to use their best pass-catcher, Olsen may just push the likes of Antonio Gates, Jason Witten and a host of others for the best at his position. I can see the Steelers, Ravens and Seahawks (and maybe the Bengals) keeping him somewhat in check, but there is no reason why Olsen can't put up the numbers I have him projected for above. Grab him about one round after the "big boys" at the TE position come off the board and enjoy similar production.

Considering how consistently productive Matt Forte was as a rookie and adding in the fact that Chicago seriously upgraded the offense, it would seem foolish to suggest that he may not be able to improve much - if at all - in Year 2. Before going any further, let me emphasize that I did not say he would disappoint. Because the Bears improved the passing game and because backup RB Kevin Jones is another year removed from ACL surgery, I merely think Forte will come close to matching last year's numbers, but he will be more efficient in doing so. I don't foresee Jones stealing a lot of work from Forte, but barring injury, there's a pretty good chance the ex-Lion will get more than the 36 touches he saw a season ago. As for the schedule, I have a long-standing policy to avoid RBs that face Pittsburgh, Baltimore or Minnesota in the fantasy playoffs. The problem with applying that policy to Forte is that he has already shown he can produce against the Vikings of the world (due to his receiving talents), so I may bend my rule just a bit for him if he were to somehow slip to me at the end of Round 1. Prior to the nightmarish end to the fantasy schedule, Forte should have ample opportunity to post some healthy stat lines in four games vs. the NFC West and a few more against the likes of Cleveland and Detroit. If owners are willing to handle a potentially low-scoring end to the season by one of their cornerstones, then I will fully endorse Forte because he certainly has the kind of schedule to lead his fantasy teams into the postseason.

 Detroit Lions
  Totals NO MIN WAS CHI PIT GB bye STL SEA MIN CLE GB CIN BAL ARI SF
(Run)   4.1 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.4 4   4.6 4.2 3.8 4.3 4 4 3.8 4.4 4
(Pass)   6.7 6.6 6 6.8 5.6 6.8   7.6 7 6.6 7.2 6.8 6.3 6.2 6.7 7
                                   
D Culpepper 1210 230 230 195 245 160 150                    
TD 6 1 1 1 2 0 1                    
INT 5 1 1 0 2 0 1                    
                                   
M Stafford 2070         30 130   230 195 200 245 210 220 180 175 255
TD 11         0 2   1 1 1 1 1 0 0 2 2
INT 11         0 2   1 3 1 0 0 1 2 1 0
                                   
K Smith 1130 85 115 65 60 35 80   125 70 65 85 55 70 45 110 65
Ru TD 7 1 1 0 1 0 0   1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
Re Yards 315 30 5 15 35 10 20   10 25 45 10 30 20 25 0 35
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 48 4 1 3 5 3 4   2 4 5 1 4 3 4 0 5
                                   
M Morris 210 15 20 15 10 15 10   10 15 5 20 15 25 10 15 10
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 70 5 5 0 10 5 10   5 0 0 5 0 10 5 10 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 13 1 1 0 1 1 2   1 1 0 1 0 1 1 2 0
                                   
C Johnson 1415 80 125 100 95 70 110   130 45 85 115 90 110 65 80 115
Re TD 11 0 1 1 1 0 2   1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1
Rec 93 5 7 6 8 5 9   8 3 6 7 6 7 4 5 7
                                   
B Johnson 535 30 25 30 15 40 55   35 50 30 40 25 35 40 50 35
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 1   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 41 2 2 4 1 3 4   2 4 3 2 1 3 3 4 3
                                   
D Northcutt 520 40 50 35 65 25 45   30 35 20 55 35 20 30 10 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 48 3 5 3 6 2 4   3 4 2 5 3 2 3 1 2
                                   
B Pettigrew 395 45 20 15 25 10 40   20 40 20 20 30 25 15 25 45
Re TD 4 1 0 0 1 0 0   0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 39 4 2 1 2 2 3   2 4 2 2 3 4 1 3 4

When considering the passing game, only two names should be considered for fantasy purposes in typical 12-team leagues: WR Calvin Johnson and rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew. Typically, the presence of two such able-bodied targets would mean a QB should also be thrown into the mix, but Daunte Culpepper almost seems resigned to the fact that No. 1 overall pick Matthew Stafford will take over at some point during the season - maybe even Week 1 - and so should fantasy owners. Conversely, the QB competition would also seem to suggest that Johnson is not likely to replicate his numbers from a season ago, but don't forget that "Megatron" played no more than five straight games with the same QB last year. Whether the ball was coming from Culpepper, Jon Kitna or Dan Orlovsky, Johnson still consistently produced for his owners when opponents knew he was the only threat, especially after the Roy Williams trade. While Detroit is still very much a work in progress, Pettigrew is one of several factors working in CJ's favor in 2009. With Pettigrew's ability to convert third downs, it is no longer a given for the defense that the ball will be going in Johnson's direction. Combine that with an OC in Scott Linehan who has emphasized the importance of a strong power-running game wherever he has ran an offense. With teams now needing to respect the run on every down, Johnson will get his opportunities and it wouldn't be surprising to me if he bested his totals from last year, even with the uncertainty at QB, which just speaks to how much of a talent he is. It also wouldn't be all that surprising if Megatron ascended into Randy Moss territory in the next year or two because with his out-of-this-world athletic ability and 6-5, 235-pound build; there just aren't too many defensive players who can stop him, even with safety help. A quick glance at the schedule reveals that while Culpepper, Stafford and most of the receiving corps has only one matchup I like, CJ has four. Furthermore, if owners can take a tough Week 14 contest in Baltimore, Johnson should perform like the stud he is before and after a difficult three-week stretch early in the season. He is such a talent, in fact, that I am tempted to suggest that of the four red matchups I have him down for, only Pittsburgh may hold him down. A home game in Week 15 vs. Arizona followed by a road contest in San Fran to close out the fantasy season also means that cold weather should not factor into the play-calling.

As luck would have it, Detroit's running game should benefit from an early game vs. Minnesota – when is the last time anyone could say that? Obviously, I suggest this only because I expect the "Williams Wall" to eventually lose their legal battle in the StarCaps case and sit out the first four games. If the suspensions are ultimately invoked, it would be a relief to the present and future owners of Kevin Smith, who will need to survive an early onslaught of formidable run defenses (Redskins, Bears, Steelers) - and that's not including the Saints and Packers, both of whom I expect to be much better vs. the run than they were last season. Despite the rough early going for Smith, Linehan has historically gotten a lot of production out of his RBs and is not the type of play caller who will bail on the run if it isn't working early. That philosophy should serve Smith well after the bye, when the Lions face all the entire NFC West and another questionable run defense in the Browns. In a perfect world, Smith's price would be that of a RB3 but since he is going in the late third round for the most part, owners who count on him as a RB2 will probably need to wait to cash in on his ability. Ideally, his owners can pair him up with another runner later in the draft (Willie Parker perhaps?) whose schedule is a bit lighter over the first six weeks of the season.

 Green Bay Packers
  Totals CHI CIN STL MIN bye DET CLE MIN TB DAL SF DET BAL CHI PIT SEA
(Run)   3.8 4 4.6 3.8   4.7 4.3 3.8 4.2 4 4 4.7 3.8 3.8 3.4 4.2
(Pass)   6.8 6.3 7.6 6.6   7.9 7.2 6.6 7.4 6.1 7 7.9 6.2 6.8 5.6 7
                                   
A Rodgers 3610 250 235 280 195   265 260 225 275 285 220 300 175 180 240 225
TD 23 1 2 3 0   2 1 2 2 2 1 3 0 1 2 1
INT 13 1 0 0 2   0 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 0 2 1
Ru Yards 135 0 10 10 5   15 5 5 15 25 10 10 5 0 5 15
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
                                   
R Grant 1220 90 80 70 105   105 60 85 110 70 60 90 65 85 45 100
Ru TD 9 1 0 0 1   1 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 1 0 1
Re Yards 135 5 10 0 10   5 15 5 0 10 15 25 15 0 15 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 24 1 2 0 2   1 3 2 0 1 2 3 4 0 2 1
                                   
B Jackson 170 10 10 5 10   10 5 0 15 30 15 10 5 20 10 15
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 250 15 10 20 15   30 10 15 20 25 10 10 0 25 25 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 39 2 2 3 3   4 1 2 3 2 2 3 0 4 5 3
                                   
D Wynn 230 15 15 15 5   25 10 20 0 0 15 25 35 15 10 25
Ru TD 3 0 1 0 0   1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 55 0 0 5 0   10 0 5 0 0 5 10 10 0 5 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 9 0 0 1 0   1 0 1 0 0 1 1 2 0 1 1
                                   
G Jennings 1190 90 65 110 75   60 125 90 75 85 110 80 45 70 60 50
Re TD 9 1 0 1 0   1 1 0 1 0 1 2 0 1 0 0
Rec 80 6 5 8 5   3 6 5 6 6 7 4 3 7 5 4
                                   
D Driver 865 55 60 75 40   50 35 65 45 70 55 105 55 40 40 75
Re TD 4 0 0 1 0   0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 67 4 6 4 3   3 4 5 3 6 3 5 5 4 5 7
                                   
J Jones 455 30 35 45 10   50 25 10 60 35 25 0 20 30 45 35
Re TD 4 0 1 0 0   1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 29 2 1 4 1   3 2 1 3 2 1 0 2 2 3 2
                                   
J Nelson 425 25 40 15 30   25 35 15 45 55 0 40 15 10 50 25
Re TD 3 0 1 0 0   0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 31 2 3 1 3   2 3 1 3 3 0 3 1 1 4 1
                                   
J Finley 235 30 15 10 15   35 15 20 30 5 0 30 15 5 0 10
Re TD 3 0 0 1 0   0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 26 3 2 1 2   3 2 2 2 1 0 2 3 2 0 1

Of the top 6-7 fantasy QBs, perhaps none of them have a more difficult stretch to end the fantasy season than Aaron Rodgers - which is sad when one considers that through the first 12 weeks of the season, he has exactly one red matchup. But even the most ardent Packer-backer would be hard-pressed to convince me that Rodgers' fantasy stock will not take a hit during Weeks 13-15 when Green Bay hosts Baltimore before hitting the road to face Chicago and then Pittsburgh. In no way am I suggesting that fantasy owners avoid Rodgers just because of this stretch, but expecting him to match the numbers of Brees, Brady and Manning in each of those weeks would be a tall order. Like most of the top QBs, Rodgers has the weapons to overcome a difficult matchup but, unlike most of his QB brethren, he also the legs to pick up some fantasy points on the ground when no one is open. Much like Rodgers, it's hard to endorse Greg Jennings as a WR1 during that same three-week stretch, which is a shame because the schedule suggests he should have a pretty productive run after a Week 1 tilt vs. Chicago. Since the schedule plays out the same for the rest of the receiving corps, allow me to address the TE position, where it appears Green Bay is planning on using Donald Lee more as a blocker this season, thereby turning the receiving chores over to Jermichael Finley. I have him projected for a fairly tame 2009 (mostly because of the four quality WRs listed above him), but there is no denying his abilities as a receiver. When Rodgers and Jennings are having trouble hooking up in Weeks 13-15, it wouldn't be all that surprising to see him find Finley. As such, I fully endorse a late-round selection (or early free agent pickup) of the second-year TE.

As luck would have it, the positive and negative matchups line up pretty much the same for the running game as they do the passing game. Ryan Grant should catch a break by avoiding the "Williams Wall" in Minnesota for what should be the last week of the duo's suspension, but since the former Golden Domer has performed well in his three games vs. the Vikings with them in the lineup, maybe it really won't make all that much of a difference. Just like the Packers' passing game, Weeks 13-15 represent a difficult three-game run for Grant's owners. Depending on Chicago’s health in its defensive front at that point (a major concern in recent years), the Bears may not be able to hold Grant down all that much, but history suggests Baltimore and Pittsburgh probably will. Unfortunately, Grant's problems don't end there. The injury-prone DeShawn Wynn's stock is supposedly at an all-time high in the organization and a healthy Wynn is a definite threat to Grant's workload. Add in Brandon Jackson - who figures to receive most of the third-down work - and very quickly Grant goes from a clear-cut #1 RB on his team to a potential headache for his owners. As such, I would probably avoid Grant until the fourth round in 12-team, PPR leagues and the end of the third round in non-PPR leagues. If I did select him, I would make sure to invest a late pick to secure Wynn.

 Minnesota Vikings
  Totals CLE DET SF GB STL BAL PIT GB bye DET SEA CHI ARI CIN CAR CHI
(Run)   4.3 4.7 4 4 4.6 3.8 3.4 4   4.7 4.2 3.8 4.4 4 4.4 3.8
(Pass)   7.2 7.9 7 6.8 7.6 6.2 5.6 6.8   7.9 7 6.8 6.7 6.3 6.3 6.8
                                   
S Rosenfels 3080 235 250 190 200 225 170 100 230   220 175 225 225 210 195 230
TD 18 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 2   1 2 1 1 1 0 2
INT 13 0 1 0 1 1 2 0 2   0 1 0 3 0 1 1
Ru Yards 100 10 10 5 5 15 0 0 5   10 10 10 0 10 5 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0
                                   
A Peterson 1605 120 135 75 85 150 75 60 115   115 90 140 70 115 140 120
Ru TD 15 2 1 0 1 1 1 0 1   1 1 2 0 1 2 1
Re Yards 135 10 15 0 15 0 10 5 10   10 5 0 25 5 10 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 23 1 3 0 2 0 3 1 2   1 1 0 3 1 2 3
                                   
C Taylor 380 15 25 25 35 40 10 15 30   35 10 40 30 15 35 20
Ru TD 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0   0 0 0 1 0 1 0
Re Yards 160 15 20 15 0 10 5 10 10   15 0 15 5 10 20 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 29 3 2 1 0 2 2 3 2   2 0 3 1 2 4 2
                                   
P Harvin 230 15 15 0 20 35 10 5 0   50 15 0 15 25 10 15
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0   1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 675 40 60 65 30 45 20 25 45   50 60 35 40 85 35 40
Re TD 5 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0   0 1 0 0 1 0 1
Rec 49 3 4 4 2 4 1 2 3   4 4 3 3 6 3 3
                                   
B Berrian 965 85 70 45 85 90 25 40 90   90 50 85 45 35 20 110
Re TD 6 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1   1 0 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 59 4 3 2 5 4 3 5 6   5 4 6 2 3 2 5
                                   
S Rice 575 35 45 30 35 40 65 20 40   15 60 35 55 40 35 25
Re TD 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0   0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 45 2 4 3 2 4 5 1 3   1 5 3 5 2 3 2
                                   
B Wade 145 15 0 10 0 15 35 0 0   10 0 15 0 15 30 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 15 1 0 1 0 2 4 0 0   1 0 1 0 2 3 0
                                   
V Shiancoe 425 35 40 25 35 25 10 0 35   30 0 40 55 20 45 30
Re TD 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1   0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 42 4 4 3 5 2 1 0 3   2 0 3 4 2 4 5

Vikings OC Darrell Bevell and Adrian Peterson have both set their eyes on "All Day" possibly eclipsing 2,000 rushing yards this season. While he has the talent, line, defense and play-calling to get it done, don't count on it happening. In fact, I think he'll be hard-pressed to reach 1,760 like he did in 2008. First off, Pittsburgh and Baltimore appear on the schedule. Although that doesn't spell certain doom for his prospects of reaching 2K, if Peterson averaged 75 yards/game vs. the Steelers and Ravens, he would be required to average 143 yards rushing/game over the remaining 14 games if he hopes to break that threshold. Up to this point in his two years in the league, he has enjoyed five such games. Throw in the typical workload for backup Chester Taylor and throw in a few additional touches for rookie Percy Harvin - who I think will be an extension of the running game, much like Reggie Bush is for the Saints - will get and, all of the sudden, Peterson may need to settle for 1,500. Don't get me wrong, if Minnesota wants AP to shorten his career just so he can make a run for Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record, Peterson may just hit 2,000. The problem is that he will need about 385 carries at his career YPC average of 5.2 to do it and it just isn't worth it. What is easy to love, though, is just how great of a start he could have against the likes of the Browns, Lions and Rams in the first five weeks of the season. The next three games will slow his pace, but after the Week 9 bye, four of the next five contests are at home. He concludes the fantasy season by facing a Panthers team without Kemoeatu in Week 15 and ends it all against a team (Chicago) he has thoroughly dominated throughout his career (averages of 138.5 rushing yards and two TDs in four career meetings vs. the Bears).

The passing game wasn't going to have it easy with Brett Favre and it's not going to be easier with Sage Rosenfels or Tavaris Jackson. By all accounts, the first 11 weeks don't contain too many roadblocks (outside of Pittsburgh and Baltimore), but a case could be made that each of the final five teams on the Vikings' fantasy schedule are ones to avoid. Two games vs. Chicago and once each against Cincinnati (experience and injuries should no longer be a concern for Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph), Arizona (the back four is perhaps the Cardinals' strongest unit) and Carolina (new DC Ron Meeks will probably install the same Cover 2 principles he taught in Indy, which typically deflates passing numbers). Not that anyone was counting on the tag team of Rosenfels and Jackson to lead them to fantasy glory, but that stretch of defenses (plus Minnesota's run-based offense) when owners need points and wins is enough reason for me to not consider either QB as even a bench player on my fantasy team. Bernard Berrian showed us last year that he didn't need the best QB in the world to produce (Gus Frerotte/Jackson) or even all that many catches (48; Berrian finished 18th amongst WRs in traditional, non-PPR scoring; the next-closest WR with that few of catches was Marques Colston in 32nd place) to be a productive fantasy player. Because I expect the passing game to be a bit more efficient this season, I believe Berrian should be in line for a few more catches this season. With that said, I could easily see Harvin being the most enticing fantasy WR on the Vikings roster in 2009. Few receivers in the league will have such a wide array of options in their offensive systems designed just to get the ball in their hands. HC Brad Childress told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune the following back in early August: "He's not just a guy that has to be thrown to, or has to be split wide...From the I-back, to the split-back, to the single-back, to the wing, to the mid-spot, to all the way out and everywhere in between, I think we can do some of those things with Percy." Childress went so far as to invoke Brian Westbrook's name during the quote (a former pupil of his), so about the only things that figure to keep Harvin from serious consideration from Rookie of the Year honors in 2009 are injury, overload (as in too much being put on his plate) or off-field issues. For those fantasy owners that don't mind rolling the dice on the unknown in regards to filling their WR3 slot, something tells me Harvin is going to have every bit of the season I have projected him for here and probably even more. Harvin's presence will probably also take away a lot of the value Visanthe Shiancoe accrued last season. He may post similar catch and yardage totals, but I can't imagine that he will find the end zone seven times again.