Week 9
11/13/09
Every industry has experts; those sages that dispense wisdom
and truth from atop the mountain. In philosophy these learned men
wear long, flowing robes and an equally lengthy beard is required.
In fantasy football, a backwards ball cap, clipboard of notes, and
half empty bottle of Coors Light is more likely. But are these guys
truly experts? Do they know any better than the rest of us schmucks?
Each week Analyzing the Experts will take aim at one or more of
these so-called oracles and find out…
Today finds me marooned at a Financial Analyst conference, snoring
through lectures on Modern Portfolio Theory and surfing the Internet
during discussions of correlation coefficients. Too much fun, although
it did prepare me for the snore-fest some of my Expert interviews
have become. Before getting to that, I want to take this Veteran’s
Day and offer thanks to the men and women who protect our country
now and those who did so in the past. I realize everyone will be
reading this later in the week, but it is important that all our
military readers and their spouses know how much they are truly
appreciated.
I spent some time in the Navy many years ago. Coincidentally,
my first fantasy football teams were drafted on an aircraft carrier.
It must have been around 1995 that a bunch of us onboard the USS
Harry S. Truman decided to start one of those newfangled football
league thingies. I didn’t win, but had the opportunity to
pore through newspapers every week to dig up the statistics for
both my team and my opponents. Yes, newspapers, and not the online
type either. We spent hours analyzing data and formulating trades
instead of working, occasionally to a team owner’s detriment.
More than one of my league buddies got into trouble for spending
too much time worrying about football instead of their jobs. And
that’s the end of my reminiscing.
Our Expert interviews were polar opposites this week. FF Cafe,
the most highly requested site for inclusion following season
one, didn’t give us anything we hadn’t already heard
elsewhere (snore), except for a unique ranking system that bears
a little explanation.
Me: FF Cafe has been doing a very respectable
job in this contest. What are you doing better than some of the
other Experts?
FF Cafe: I can't speak for everyone else's methodology,
but we at the Cafe depend on volunteers for almost everything.
Following the pattern, the rankings you see at the Cafe are an
average of whomever submits a set each week. In the past, we've
run into problems with consistency across each volunteer's rankings
(i.e., how big a factor is a player's health or matchup). Now,
we break each player into separate categories (overall fantasy
worth, current week's matchup, player's health) to ensure that
we're (mostly) giving each part of the process equal weight in
the final product. We could go ahead and break things down even
further, but the process is time-consuming enough as is for our
brave volunteers.
CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg was a pleasant surprise from
one of our big, evil, corporate empire competitors. After getting
the ‘all-clear’ from his masters, he was gracious
enough to answer my questions.
Me: You have a sweet 6-1-2 record. Why are you
so much better than some of the "less fortunate" Experts?
No need to be humble...
CBS: I think we’ve had a good year going
back to the preseason, and by “we” it’s a combination
of me and Dave Richard [Jamie’s partner in crime at CBS],
who is having a great year with his predictions. For example,
he loved Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Wallace in Week 9 and hated
Donovan McNabb, which were solid calls. We spent a lot of time
traveling to preseason games, talking to coaches and players and
relying on our former players at CBS, which is a nice luxury to
have. I hope we can finish the season strong because as you know,
projections and predictions aren’t easy.
Me: How does working for a huge organization
like CBS help and hurt your abilities as fantasy football guru?
CBS: We obviously have a lot of viewers because our Fantasy game
is the best out there, and our Fantasy News site continues to
grow. When you miss on a call, everyone knows about it, so it
keeps us on our toes. But we have so many venues to express our
opinion with our live Fantasy Football Today show on Sunday, weekly
videos, podcasts and all our columns, it’s fun to give people
so many arenas to help with their lineup decisions. The biggest
benefit of working for CBS is evident in our live show where we
have remote hits from every CBS game with a Fantasy spin, and
our analysts on NFL Today all give predictions, which is great.
Me: Who is going to win the Super Bowl this
year?
CBS: I’ll go with Minnesota. They have all
the elements in place with a good defense and strong running game.
If Brett Favre stays healthy, they should be there at the end.
Me: Name a player that is still a free
agent in most fantasy leagues but should be picked up now.
CBS: Kolby Smith is the first name that comes
to mind, but I hate relying on anyone with the Chiefs, even if
he ends up as the starter there. Let’s go with Bernard Scott.
If Cedric Benson gets hurt, Scott could be a steal for the Bengals,
who have become a running team.
Of course I need to thank both FF Cafe and CBS Sports for their
time and thoughts. Now we need to look at some actual games.
The team we used this week is The Mighty Toastmen owned by Todd
of Madison, WI. All you Ren & Stimpy fan should get a kick
out of that name I guess. He gave me tons of information about
both his keeper league and himself, but most interesting was the
response to a question concerning Brett Favre playing in Minnesota.
Todd: Favre? I could write you a whole article
on that! I am a lifelong Packer fan since first figuring out what
football on TV was back in the mid 1970's and suffered through
a lot of bad football before Wolf, Holmgren, Reggie, and Brett.
The past 15 years have been great. I actually lived in IL for
five of those years and I tell people that the best part about
that time is that Pack never lost to the Bears once while I was
there (94-98 seasons).
The "fans" who now root for the Vikings (and the Jets
last year) because that is where Favre plays drive me insane.
The Ted Thompson bashers drive me insane. The "Brett is a
whiny diva" crowd drives me insane. I think that there is
enough blame to go around for how the whole thing unfolded. I
find it refreshing that the media is starting to talk about the
fact that maybe Brett didn't want to be in Green Bay anymore and
that this was not simply the Packers getting rid of him…For
a long time, I was rooting against Favre; I pictured Kampman driving
that repaired shoulder into the ground and ending his season.
But, I have come to realize that this is truly a "divorce"
and that there is plenty of blame to go around; and like the kid
caught in middle, at some point you realize this and move on…He
and the Vikings could win the whole thing or he could throw 4
picks and lose in the first round. Who knows? He is truly an all
time great, but I hate watching him beat my team.
Wow, that was therapeutic.
There you have it, from a life-long Packers fan. I had to cut
out some bits and pieces, but I think everyone gets the idea.
- QB: Brees, Garrard, Romo
- RB: Charles, Gore, Moreno, Cadillac Williams, Ricky Williams
- WR: Fitzgerald, Holt, Housh, Knox, Maclin, Moss (WAS)
- TE: Winslow, Witten
- K: Reed, Stover
- Def: Colts, Redskins
Keeper and dynasty leagues are great for amassing depth and this
one was a challenge for many of our Experts. The Mighty Toastmen
have solid players across the board, many of them similar in ability
and potential fantasy points. This week we separate the fantasy
Experts from the pretender Chumps…
Week Nine’s Games
| Pick Color Codes |
|
| Correct |
|
| Missed by: 1 |
|
| Missed by: 2 |
|
| Missed by: 3 |
|
|
| |
B
r
e
e
s |
G
a
r
r
a
r
d |
R
o
m
o |
C
h
a
r
l
e
s |
G
o
r
e |
M
o
r
e
n
o |
C.
W
i
l
l
i
a
m
s |
R.
W
i
l
l
i
a
m
s |
F
i
t
z
g
e
r
a
l
d |
H
o
l
t |
H
o
u
s
h |
K
n
o
x |
M
a
c
l
i
n |
M
o
s
s
W
A
S |
W
i
n
s
l
o
w |
W
i
t
t
e
n |
R
e
e
d |
S
t
o
v
e
r |
C
o
l
t
s |
R
e
d
s
k
i
n
s |
TPts |
| Correct |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
| FFSharks |
1 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
6 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
80 |
| FFToday |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
83 |
|
After a rough start, FF Today continues moving up in this competition,
squeaking by the Sharks. I checked and rechecked FF Sharks ranking
of Fitz and I am still amazed at how low they had him. Not only
was he behind Housh and Santana Moss, but Torry freaking Holt was
ahead of him. Very, very interesting…
| |
B
r
e
e
s |
G
a
r
r
a
r
d |
R
o
m
o |
C
h
a
r
l
e
s |
G
o
r
e |
M
o
r
e
n
o |
C.
W
i
l
l
i
a
m
s |
R.
W
i
l
l
i
a
m
s |
F
i
t
z
g
e
r
a
l
d |
H
o
l
t |
H
o
u
s
h |
K
n
o
x |
M
a
c
l
i
n |
M
o
s
s
W
A
S |
W
i
n
s
l
o
w |
W
i
t
t
e
n |
R
e
e
d |
S
t
o
v
e
r |
C
o
l
t
s |
R
e
d
s
k
i
n
s |
TPts |
| Correct |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
| FB
Guys |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
88 |
| Yahoo! |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
1 |
NR |
87 |
|
This was another tight game. Yahoo! threw me a curve ball by simply
not ranking ANY kickers this week. Maybe their kicker ranking dude
was on vacation or something. They end up with the same deal FF
Today and FB Guys get on defense, the Expert average for that position
rounded down. In all cases this week, that number ended up being
nine out of ten points.
| |
B
r
e
e
s |
G
a
r
r
a
r
d |
R
o
m
o |
C
h
a
r
l
e
s |
G
o
r
e |
M
o
r
e
n
o |
C.
W
i
l
l
i
a
m
s |
R.
W
i
l
l
i
a
m
s |
F
i
t
z
g
e
r
a
l
d |
H
o
l
t |
H
o
u
s
h |
K
n
o
x |
M
a
c
l
i
n |
M
o
s
s
W
A
S |
W
i
n
s
l
o
w |
W
i
t
t
e
n |
R
e
e
d |
S
t
o
v
e
r |
C
o
l
t
s |
R
e
d
s
k
i
n
s |
TPts |
| Correct |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
| CBS |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
NR |
2 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
90 |
| NFL |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
4 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
NR |
82 |
|
Our high score this week was 90 and CBS was one of two teams to
get it. Everyone hosed the quarterback position, but CBS was solid
otherwise. Obviously Jamey got lots of good karma for being such
a nice guy in our interview. NFL continues bouncing along at the
bottom of everything.
| |
B
r
e
e
s |
G
a
r
r
a
r
d |
R
o
m
o |
C
h
a
r
l
e
s |
G
o
r
e |
M
o
r
e
n
o |
C.
W
i
l
l
i
a
m
s |
R.
W
i
l
l
i
a
m
s |
F
i
t
z
g
e
r
a
l
d |
H
o
l
t |
H
o
u
s
h |
K
n
o
x |
M
a
c
l
i
n |
M
o
s
s
W
A
S |
W
i
n
s
l
o
w |
W
i
t
t
e
n |
R
e
e
d |
S
t
o
v
e
r |
C
o
l
t
s |
R
e
d
s
k
i
n
s |
TPts |
| Correct |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
| Rotoworld |
1 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
88 |
| Huddle |
1 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
6 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
83 |
|
One of the best teams in our competition went against one of the
worst with Rotoworld coming out on top. Moreno and Housh caused
some issues, but both scores were decent, if not awe-inspiring.
All of our Experts agreed that Witten was clearly the better start
over Winslow at tight end, and they were all 100% wrong. That is
a first for us here at Analyzing the Experts.
| |
B
r
e
e
s |
G
a
r
r
a
r
d |
R
o
m
o |
C
h
a
r
l
e
s |
G
o
r
e |
M
o
r
e
n
o |
C.
W
i
l
l
i
a
m
s |
R.
W
i
l
l
i
a
m
s |
F
i
t
z
g
e
r
a
l
d |
H
o
l
t |
H
o
u
s
h |
K
n
o
x |
M
a
c
l
i
n |
M
o
s
s
W
A
S |
W
i
n
s
l
o
w |
W
i
t
t
e
n |
R
e
e
d |
S
t
o
v
e
r |
C
o
l
t
s |
R
e
d
s
k
i
n
s |
TPts |
| Correct |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
| Fox |
1 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
84 |
| ESPN |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
90 |
|
ESPN was our second team to hit 90 points this week. Fox was solid;
however that wasn’t good enough this week. ESPN, CBS, and
Rotoworld all nailed the wide receiver position, making for some
really nice scores.
| |
B
r
e
e
s |
G
a
r
r
a
r
d |
R
o
m
o |
C
h
a
r
l
e
s |
G
o
r
e |
M
o
r
e
n
o |
C.
W
i
l
l
i
a
m
s |
R.
W
i
l
l
i
a
m
s |
F
i
t
z
g
e
r
a
l
d |
H
o
l
t |
H
o
u
s
h |
K
n
o
x |
M
a
c
l
i
n |
M
o
s
s
W
A
S |
W
i
n
s
l
o
w |
W
i
t
t
e
n |
R
e
e
d |
S
t
o
v
e
r |
C
o
l
t
s |
R
e
d
s
k
i
n
s |
TPts |
| Correct |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
| KFFL |
2 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
6 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
76 |
| AOL |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
82 |
|
Stop me if you’ve heard this one – KFFL once again managed
the low score for the week. This time it was an absolutely miserable
76 points. It’s time for heads to roll over at that football
site. They only got three picks right and two of them were pretty
darned obvious. AOL will take any win it can get at this point….By
the way, KFFL was also the only Expert to get the defense wrong.
| |
B
r
e
e
s |
G
a
r
r
a
r
d |
R
o
m
o |
C
h
a
r
l
e
s |
G
o
r
e |
M
o
r
e
n
o |
C.
W
i
l
l
i
a
m
s |
R.
W
i
l
l
i
a
m
s |
F
i
t
z
g
e
r
a
l
d |
H
o
l
t |
H
o
u
s
h |
K
n
o
x |
M
a
c
l
i
n |
M
o
s
s
W
A
S |
W
i
n
s
l
o
w |
W
i
t
t
e
n |
R
e
e
d |
S
t
o
v
e
r |
C
o
l
t
s |
R
e
d
s
k
i
n
s |
TPts |
| Correct |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
| FFToolbox |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
88 |
| FF
Cafe |
1 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
86 |
|
And our idiot game (since I can’t count to seven properly)
goes to FF Toolbox, further cementing their dominance. FF Cafe didn’t
do anything wrong, but just got matched up against a streaking Expert.
Of course, the Holt pick was a little suspect.
| ATE Week 9
Standings - East |
| EAST |
Record |
Pts |
| Rotoworld |
6-3 |
756 |
| Fox |
4-3-2 |
748 |
| ESPN |
4-2-3 |
745 |
| FF Cafe |
3-3-3 |
744 |
| AOL |
2-4-3 |
738 |
| The Huddle |
2-7 |
723 |
| KFFL |
1-7-1 |
710 |
|
|
| ATE Week 9
Standings - West |
| WEST |
Record |
Pts |
| FF Toolbox |
6-1-2 |
760 |
| Football Guys |
6-2-1 |
756 |
| CBS |
6-1-2 |
750 |
| FF Sharks |
4-3-2 |
734 |
| FF Today |
3-4-2 |
732 |
| Yahoo! |
2-6-1 |
743 |
| NFL |
2-5-2 |
739 |
|
|
There was a lot of movement in the rankings this week. Once again,
I can’t mathematically eliminate anyone. However, with four
games left in the regular season, everyone can see the situation
pretty clearly. Remember, the top two teams in each division get
into the playoffs along with two wild card teams. The six-win Experts
should be there while the teams with only one or two wins are pretty
much toast. The five teams in the middle with only two playoff spots
available are the most intriguing.
I also took time to analyze some of our numbers this week. In
particular, the total points for each competitor. This is obviously
based on partial data from our currently uncompleted season, but
it highlights both the similarities between Experts and some of
the differences.
The process was pretty simple. All I did was determine which
teams were ‘outliers’. These are the ones who are
either doing extremely well or horribly. There are, of course,
many teams bunched in the center who have displayed approximately
the same level of incompetence. However, on the good side, both
Football Guys and Rotoworld are currently averaging two picks
better than the average each and every week. FF Toolbox? They
are doing an amazing job, averaging three picks better every week.
Flipping over to the dark side, Huddle is currently two picks
per week below par and KFFL (poor, sad, KFFL) is grossly slanting
all my numbers by crashing and burning each week to the tune of
four picks worse than average. So, from best to worst, listening
to FF Toolbox would net your fantasy team seven better picks than
KFFL. That is certainly a significant amount and likely the difference
between being the trash talker and trash talkee.
|
