Week 7
10/30/09
Every industry has experts; those sages that dispense wisdom
and truth from atop the mountain. In philosophy these learned men
wear long, flowing robes and an equally lengthy beard is required.
In fantasy football, a backwards ball cap, clipboard of notes, and
half empty bottle of Coors Light is more likely. But are these guys
truly experts? Do they know any better than the rest of us schmucks?
Each week Analyzing the Experts will take aim at one or more of
these so-called oracles and find out…
Week Seven marks the halfway point of our thirteen game regular
season, so it’s time to change things up a bit. I’ve
spent the better part of two months tearing apart our Experts, ridiculing
their rankings, and demeaning their highly esteemed knowledge and
experience. It is only fair that they should get a chance to respond
to my continual jibes. As usual, this concept came to me shortly
before deadline, so I turned to the one contestant I could count
on to get back to me relatively quickly. Please welcome Mike Krueger
of FF Today to the Analyzing the Experts interview room.
I emailed him a short list of questions readers have been asking
me or I’ve wanted to ask myself. He was kind enough to share
his thoughts for your enjoyment.
Me: After seven weeks, you are 1-4-2 and
sitting in the damp, smelly basement of the West division. How the
heck did you get there?
Mike: Hmmm, reasons for my poor showing in the
league. I’m not sure. Are you calculating the scores correctly?
This certainly isn’t my fault. My rankings can’t possibly
be this bad. I’m blaming the system… or my poor showing
in the wide receiver category. I’ve been burned by Marques
Colston (ranked too high) and Mike Sims-Walker (ranked too low).
Vincent Jackson and Steve Smith also have cost me valuable points
in this league.
Me: What should we expect in the second half
of the year as you try to get back into the race? Any changes to
methodology? Selling your soul to the Devil?
Mike: No changes to my methodology. I project
stats for all players, predict the game score and sprinkle in some
matchup analysis along with “gut feel” to create the
rankings. It’s served me well in making lineup decisions for
my leagues this year but hasn’t translated to points or wins
in this format. I’m a stubborn red-head so I’ll be sticking
with my philosophies, trusting that better fortunes are right around
the corner. Or, maybe I’ll just cut-n-paste FF Toolbox’s
rankings from here on out.
Me: Why don't you rank team defenses? Most
leagues start one. Aren't you leaving readers hanging by not doing
this?
Mike: One of the general rules of thumb on draft
day is “don’t take a defense too early”. It’s
a common mantra repeated year after year. Why? Because there are
plenty of serviceable defenses to be had, especially this season
when you have so many weak teams in the league. The Eagles and Vikings
are the only two defenses that are performing up to expectations
and perhaps worthy of where owners reached for them in August. Otherwise,
I’m assuming the FF Today readers are astute enough to grab
one of the nineteen other Team D/STs that are averaging 5.0-7.0
FPts per game and plug them into their lineup. I suppose putting
them in list form each week would be of some value and will consider
doing so, but in the meantime I can give some general guidance.
D/STs that are playing against the Rams, Browns, Titans, Buccaneers,
Chiefs, Raiders, Redskins, or Lions, are good plays. If none of
those D/STs are options for you, play the D/ST currently on your
roster.
Me: What makes FFToday's rankings better
than others? No need to be humble or nice here.
Mike: Despite my 1-4-2 record (damn, another
tie!) I think we’ve had a decent track record ranking players
over the years. We’ve done some internal studies on the subject
and FF Today has performed admirably in outside studies as well.
In fact, FF Today’s preseason rankings (offense) finished
fifth overall in a study done by the Fantasy Sports Trade Association
last season. I certainly know the time and effort that is put in
and I think we’ve done a good job of refining our process
of projecting performance over the years. Given the subjective nature
and the various factors that affect rankings there are certainly
going to be up and down seasons and we’re certainly not immune,
but in any given year, I’m more than willing to stack our
numbers and cheatsheets (preseason or weekly) up against any other
free or pay service out there.
Me: Why do you publish AtE when it is often
critical of you and your work? Many websites would have shut me
down long ago.
Mike: Really, do you think they would shut you
down? Accountability is a word we cherish around here so I don’t
have a problem with the critiques as long as they are fair for everyone
– good or bad. And, as you’ve so delicately pointed
out, I’m 1-4-2 in this league and stinking out loud, so I
suppose a little criticism is justified…. as long as it’s
done with a little bit of tongue in cheek. ;)
And a big thanks to Mike for taking the time to help clarify things.
I do still think he needs to rank team defenses…Don’t
worry – all the Experts will get their chance. I am very curious
how many of them will be interested in answering these possibly
awkward and uncomfortable questions. I expect that the Experts who
have completely sucked and the cold, inhuman, corporate competitors
will be less friendly and accommodating than FF Today. On to the
games….
This week’s team owner, Scott, submitted his lineup after
reading a few comments concerning the “short bus”
and my diatribe about the perils of playing fantasy football with
a spouse. The dubious intelligence of our Experts and the hidden
pain buried deep in my fantasy football past inspired him to share.
Scott’s league is named Short Bus and his excellent team
name is World-Famous Hoecakes. Unfortunately, I missed helping
him the week he played his wife. It’s ok Scott; just keep
telling everyone that you let her win….
- QB: Brady, Hill, McNabb
- RB: Brown, Choice, Fargas, Grant, McCoy
- WR: Driver, Ginn, D. Jackson, Nicks, Wade
- TE: Cooley, Keller, Shiancoe
- K: Folk, Kasay
- Def: Bengals, Vikings
It isn’t the most star-studded line up we’ve examined,
but many of these players ended up in the news for one reason
or another by the end of the week, completely messing with the
carefully crafted rankings of our Experts. The incompetence of
Shaun Hill and poor catching of Ginn may have cost both of them
starting jobs, not to mention the significant injury to Cooley.
I’m returning this roster to the owner in significantly
worse condition than I received it.
Week Seven’s Games
| Pick Color Codes |
|
| Correct |
|
| Missed by: 1 |
|
| Missed by: 2 |
|
| Missed by: 3 |
|
|
| |
B
r
a
d
y |
H
i
l
l |
M
c
N
a
b
b |
R.
B
r
o
w
n |
C
h
o
i
c
e |
F
a
r
g
a
s |
G
r
a
n
t |
M
c
C
o
y |
D
r
i
v
e
r |
G
i
n
n |
D.
J
a
c
k
s
o
n |
N
i
c
k
s |
W
a
d
e |
C
o
o
l
e
y |
K
e
l
l
e
r |
S
h
i
a
n
c
o
e |
F
o
l
k |
K
a
s
a
y |
B
e
n
g
a
l
s |
V
i
k
i
n
g
s |
TPts |
| Correct |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
| Fox |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
86 |
| Yahoo! |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
86 |
|
Why do we always seem to start out with a tie? I really need to
set up some sort of tie-breaker for next season. Two respectable
scores here. Fox was one of only two Experts to get the defenses
correct. Chris Cooley’s early injury doomed the TE rankings
of everyone this week.
| |
B
r
a
d
y |
H
i
l
l |
M
c
N
a
b
b |
R.
B
r
o
w
n |
C
h
o
i
c
e |
F
a
r
g
a
s |
G
r
a
n
t |
M
c
C
o
y |
D
r
i
v
e
r |
G
i
n
n |
D.
J
a
c
k
s
o
n |
N
i
c
k
s |
W
a
d
e |
C
o
o
l
e
y |
K
e
l
l
e
r |
S
h
i
a
n
c
o
e |
F
o
l
k |
K
a
s
a
y |
B
e
n
g
a
l
s |
V
i
k
i
n
g
s |
TPts |
| Correct |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
| Huddle |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
NR |
1 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
80 |
| FB
Guys |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
90 |
|
Did I call it or what guys? Sure enough, in our Battle of the Pay
Sites, FB Guys beat the snot out of The Huddle. FB Guys was amped
up, setting the high score this week while Huddle limped in at the
low end. At least Huddle is improving – they managed to get
four picks right this week!
| |
B
r
a
d
y |
H
i
l
l |
M
c
N
a
b
b |
R.
B
r
o
w
n |
C
h
o
i
c
e |
F
a
r
g
a
s |
G
r
a
n
t |
M
c
C
o
y |
D
r
i
v
e
r |
G
i
n
n |
D.
J
a
c
k
s
o
n |
N
i
c
k
s |
W
a
d
e |
C
o
o
l
e
y |
K
e
l
l
e
r |
S
h
i
a
n
c
o
e |
F
o
l
k |
K
a
s
a
y |
B
e
n
g
a
l
s |
V
i
k
i
n
g
s |
TPts |
| Correct |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
| KFFL |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
84 |
| NFL |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
NR |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
NR |
2 |
1 |
86 |
|
KFFL continues its losing ways this week, although not as badly
as usual. Meanwhile, NFL Fantasy is showing some signs of life after
a horrendous start to the season. Besides the Cooley injury, all
our tight ends posted very similar scores, costing everyone points.
Only KFFL and The Huddle managed to screw up a pretty easy week
at quarterback. You took Hill over McNabb? Really?
| |
B
r
a
d
y |
H
i
l
l |
M
c
N
a
b
b |
R.
B
r
o
w
n |
C
h
o
i
c
e |
F
a
r
g
a
s |
G
r
a
n
t |
M
c
C
o
y |
D
r
i
v
e
r |
G
i
n
n |
D.
J
a
c
k
s
o
n |
N
i
c
k
s |
W
a
d
e |
C
o
o
l
e
y |
K
e
l
l
e
r |
S
h
i
a
n
c
o
e |
F
o
l
k |
K
a
s
a
y |
B
e
n
g
a
l
s |
V
i
k
i
n
g
s |
TPts |
| Correct |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
| FF
Cafe |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
NR |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
82 |
| FFToday |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
82 |
|
A tough outing for FF Today as they added another tie to their record.
At least it wasn’t a loss….FF Today and Huddle both
scored only eight points for defense as our Experts were almost
universally wrong on those picks. This week’s scores were
in a tight range of 80 to 90, generating a handful of ties. Are
the Experts finally getting a handle on what is going on? Or is
everyone copying off their neighbor’s paper?
| |
B
r
a
d
y |
H
i
l
l |
M
c
N
a
b
b |
R.
B
r
o
w
n |
C
h
o
i
c
e |
F
a
r
g
a
s |
G
r
a
n
t |
M
c
C
o
y |
D
r
i
v
e
r |
G
i
n
n |
D.
J
a
c
k
s
o
n |
N
i
c
k
s |
W
a
d
e |
C
o
o
l
e
y |
K
e
l
l
e
r |
S
h
i
a
n
c
o
e |
F
o
l
k |
K
a
s
a
y |
B
e
n
g
a
l
s |
V
i
k
i
n
g
s |
TPts |
| Correct |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
| Rotoworld |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
86 |
| FF
Toolbox |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
80 |
|
Rotoworld continues its run, soundly beating one of our early favorites.
FF Toolbox has been fading fast, tying the low score this week.
It wasn’t that long ago that they had a very comfortable point
lead over everyone. Ted Ginn Jr.’s dropped passes (and pending
demotion) didn’t help FF Toolbox much.
| |
B
r
a
d
y |
H
i
l
l |
M
c
N
a
b
b |
R.
B
r
o
w
n |
C
h
o
i
c
e |
F
a
r
g
a
s |
G
r
a
n
t |
M
c
C
o
y |
D
r
i
v
e
r |
G
i
n
n |
D.
J
a
c
k
s
o
n |
N
i
c
k
s |
W
a
d
e |
C
o
o
l
e
y |
K
e
l
l
e
r |
S
h
i
a
n
c
o
e |
F
o
l
k |
K
a
s
a
y |
B
e
n
g
a
l
s |
V
i
k
i
n
g
s |
TPts |
| Correct |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
| AOL |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
86 |
| FF
Sharks |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
90 |
|
As much as I would like to rip AOL, they did a pretty decent job,
being close on every pick. They just ran up against a red hot FF
Sharks team. Sharks was only the second team to get full points
for the defensive position. As sad as it is, the kicker and defensive
picks cost AOL Fanhouse the win this week.
| |
B
r
a
d
y |
H
i
l
l |
M
c
N
a
b
b |
R.
B
r
o
w
n |
C
h
o
i
c
e |
F
a
r
g
a
s |
G
r
a
n
t |
M
c
C
o
y |
D
r
i
v
e
r |
G
i
n
n |
D.
J
a
c
k
s
o
n |
N
i
c
k
s |
W
a
d
e |
C
o
o
l
e
y |
K
e
l
l
e
r |
S
h
i
a
n
c
o
e |
F
o
l
k |
K
a
s
a
y |
B
e
n
g
a
l
s |
V
i
k
i
n
g
s |
TPts |
| Correct |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
| ESPN |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
NR |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
86 |
| CBS |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
NR |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
NR |
1 |
86 |
|
And another tie with two more solid scores. Nothing particularly
exciting here. Move along.
| ATE Week 7
Standings - East |
| EAST |
Record |
Pts |
| Rotoworld |
5-2 |
576 |
| Fox |
3-2-2 |
574 |
| FF Cafe |
2-2-3 |
564 |
| ESPN |
2-2-3 |
563 |
| The Huddle |
2-5 |
551 |
| AOL |
1-4-2 |
566 |
| KFFL |
1-5-1 |
546 |
|
|
| ATE Week 7
Standings - West |
| WEST |
Record |
Pts |
| Football Guys |
5-1-1 |
578 |
| FF Toolbox |
4-1-2 |
580 |
| CBS |
4-1-2 |
566 |
| FF Sharks |
4-1-2 |
566 |
| NFL |
2-4-1 |
567 |
| Yahoo! |
2-4-1 |
564 |
| FF Today |
1-4-2 |
558 |
|
|
For the most part, the leaders won and the bottom-dwellers lost
this week. The only changes in the standings were Football Guys
and FF Toolbox swapping positions along with NFL Fantasy and Yahoo!.
Two tiers are beginning to develop across both divisions. The top
guys (Rotoworld, FB Guys, FF Toolbox, CBS, and FF Sharks) have opened
up a nice two game lead on the rest of the field. With the top couple
of teams from each division going to the playoffs along with two
wild cards, it is pretty clear who the favorites are, excluding
that second spot in the East that is still up for grabs.
I am tempted to shovel dirt over the stinking carcasses of AOL,
KFFL, and FF Today, but we still have six divisional games to
go and I don’t want to officially bury FF Today until my
paycheck clears. While it is improbable any of these teams can
dig themselves out of the deep hole they are in, mathematically
it is still perfectly doable. It just doesn’t seem likely
from what we have seen so far.
|
