Week 3
10/2/09
Every industry has experts; those sages that dispense wisdom
and truth from atop the mountain. In philosophy these learned men
wear long, flowing robes and an equally lengthy beard is required.
In fantasy football, a backwards ball cap, clipboard of notes, and
half empty bottle of Coors Light is more likely. But are these guys
truly experts? Do they know any better than the rest of us schmucks?
Each week Analyzing the Experts will take aim at one or more of
these so-called oracles and find out…
Now that we are in Week Three, our Experts should be hitting their
stride after a rocky and underwhelming start to the competition.
They no longer need to rely on inflated preseason numbers, questionable
depth charts, and indecipherable coaching euphemisms. The quality
of opposing defenses is pretty well understood and offensive coordinators
have emptied their bag of tricks during the first couple weeks.
We know what to expect at this point in the season, so this week
should be a slam dunk for our fantasy prognosticators.
Of course, that’s not what really happened. Before we examine
another week of carnage, some housekeeping issues must be addressed.
First, I received about a gazillion emails this week asking me
to explain the scoring system and what all the pretty colors mean.
This was discussed at length earlier
in the series, but a short review is in order.
A user-submitted team is compared to the published
rankings of each Expert. Using those rankings, the Expert ranks
each player on the team by position. Once the games are over,
we compare those rankings with the optimal rankings. If the Expert
was right, he gets five points for that player. For each rank
he is off, he gets one less point.
Example: This week FF Cafe has Kyle Orton ranked as our team’s
worst possible starting quarterback. Orton sucks, so this makes
sense. When all the games have concluded, I look over the stats
and, sure enough, he scored the least fantasy points of our four
QBs. FF Cafe nailed it and received five points.
For some unknown reason, NFL.com says Orton is going to be pretty
darned good this week and ranks him as our second best QB. He
ended up being last (or fourth), giving the NFL only three points
(and an extra large heaping of ridicule) for that poor pick.
We total up the points each Expert has accumulated,
giving us a final tally for the week. The maximum possible score
is 100. Not ranked (NR) is considered a bottom ranking. So, if
someone like AOL chose not to rank LenDale White, he is considered
to be their #5 pick at running back.
As for the pretty color coding, I never really explained
that since it was a last minute addition to the Week One spreadsheets.
Looking over my numerous Excel screens, I realized just how much
information was being displayed and how difficult it would be
to make much sense of it. So my lovely wife, who is also an Excel
goddess, set up the color system. She’s pretty smart, with
the obvious exception of her marriage to me, and deserves all
the credit for keeping the numbers correct and presentable. Yellow
is one rank off. Orange means two and dark orange is three or
more ranks off. This leaves white as being a correct pick.
The second housekeeping item is giving some well-deserved props
to the Experts talking Analyzing the Experts up on their
message boards and forums. I was particularly inspired by the
mention of this series, including a link, by an Expert who is
struggling right now. That shows both some serious rocks and solid
confidence in turning things around. Very impressive and much
appreciated.
Our team this week was submitted by David, who is part of a dynasty
league at work. He never gave me his team name, even after multiple
attempts to contact him, so his team is now called The Little
Fluffy Bunnies. I’m not sure if he was out of town for the
weekend, in a drunken coma, or shackled to the bedpost with padded
pink handcuffs, but we’ll roll with what we have.
- QB: Romo, Sanchez, Orton, S. Hill
- RB: AP (MIN), J. Stewart, LenWhale, F. Jones, C. Taylor
- WR: C. Johnson (DET), Wayne, S. Smith (CAR), Holmes, V. Jackson
- TE: Olsen, Boss
- K: J. Reed, Scobee
- Def: Cowboys, Falcons
I made some minor changes to The Little Fluffy Bunnies since
the league included individual defensive players but no kickers
or team defenses. Overall, this team provided a solid slate of
players for our Experts to feast on.
Week Three’s Games
| Pick Color Codes |
|
| Correct |
|
| Missed by: 1 |
|
| Missed by: 2 |
|
| Missed by: 3 |
|
|
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R
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C
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F
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TPts |
| Correct |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
| FFCafe |
1 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
82 |
| NFL |
1 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
NR |
NR |
2 |
1 |
79 |
|
FFCafe pulls out a win in this tight match up. NFL.com didn’t
even come close on any QB picks or get much right elsewhere. They
also didn’t bother ranking either kicker. That’s a bit
sad since our kickers ended up #10 and #11 in the final rankings
for the week. Next year I may need to reevaluate the methodology
for NR picks…
| |
R
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F
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s |
TPts |
| Correct |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
| Rotoworld |
1 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
78 |
| CBS |
1 |
2 |
NR |
NR |
1 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
NR |
83 |
|
In an upset of sorts, CBS steals one on Rotoworld. There was nothing
terribly impressive or horrible from either contestant. Vincent
Jackson’s surprise fantasy points hurt many of our Experts
and Rotoworld couldn’t get a QB pick even close to right.
Surprising rookie Mark Sanchez and Shaun “Is he still in the
NFL” Hill both topped consensus favorite Tony Romo.
| |
R
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F
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TPts |
| Correct |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
| AOL |
1 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
NR |
2 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
82 |
| Yahoo! |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
NR |
1 |
1 |
NR |
84 |
|
This was one of the higher scoring games of the week. Who could
have seen that coming from these two clowns? I may have to start
being nicer to some of these guys. No one is getting the running
backs right and Steve Smith cost AOL the win here. I hate to admit
it, but this was a nice showing by two often picked-on Experts.
| |
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F
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TPts |
| Correct |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
| ESPN |
1 |
2 |
3 |
NR |
1 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
NR |
NR |
1 |
2 |
83 |
| FFToday |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
83 |
|
I’m starting to feel a little bit bad for FFToday at this
point. They finally get things together and are among the top scores
for the week and their opponent manages to do the exact same thing.
It ended up in a tie when all the points were counted up since FFToday
gets nine for their defensive picks (Experts’ average rounded
down).
| |
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F.
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W
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S.
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H
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B
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C
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F
a
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c
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s |
TPts |
| Correct |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
| Fox |
1 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
80 |
| FFToolbox |
1 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
82 |
|
There were a lot of tight matches this week. FF Toolbox managed
to slide past Fox on the strength of their excellent receiver picks.
Great call on Vincent Jackson, making FF Toolbox one of only two
Experts to nail that tough call. At least it made up for the serious
miss on Sanchez.
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L.
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F.
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C.
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C.
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W
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C
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H
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B
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S
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b
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C
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b
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F
a
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c
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s |
TPts |
| Correct |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
| Huddle |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
NR |
4 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
75 |
| FFSharks |
2 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
84 |
|
FF Sharks was the other Expert picking Jackson to be second among
our WRs. That level of excellence wasn’t really needed since
FF Sharks was matched up against The Huddle, who has become my newest
object of ridicule. At least Huddle ranked most everyone this week
for a pleasant change. Of course, they only got two out of a possible
twenty picks right. Their defensive points are calculated the same
as FFToday’s.
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C
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F
a
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TPts |
| Correct |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
| KFFL |
1 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
74 |
| FB
Guys |
1 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
80 |
|
Our final game of the week included our low score. KFFL completely
hosed their receiver rankings, costing them a possible win against
a surprisingly average FB Guys team this week. Not a pretty game,
but FB Guys continues to roll.
| ATE - Week
3 Standings |
| EAST |
Record |
Pts |
| Fox |
1-2 |
244 |
| ESPN |
1-1-1 |
240 |
| FF Cafe |
1-1-1 |
238 |
| Rotoworld |
1-2 |
238 |
| KFFL |
1-1-1 |
236 |
| The Huddle |
1-2 |
231 |
| AOL |
0-2-1 |
235 |
|
|
| ATE - Week
3 Standings |
| WEST |
Record |
Pts |
| FF Toolbox |
3-0 |
256 |
| Football Guys |
3-0 |
244 |
| FF Sharks |
2-0-1 |
244 |
| CBS |
2-0-1 |
240 |
| Yahoo! |
0-2-1 |
242 |
| NFL |
0-2-1 |
238 |
| FF Today |
0-2-1 |
236 |
|
|
One thing we definitely accomplished this season is replicating
the frustration of fantasy football owners. Excluding the awesomeness
known as FF Toolbox, everyone else is clustered together within
thirteen points of each other. However, the records in that group
vary from 3-0 with Football Guys, down to FF Today and AOL at 0-2-1.
Some luck, both good and bad, is being felt throughout the league.
The disparity between our two divisions may come into play when
we approach the postseason. East is circling the drain three weeks
into our contest while the West looks like they are housing all
the possible contenders. That is interesting considering the completely
random team assignments. Some of you have noticed that all games
right now are inter-division, leaving the most important match ups
until the end of the season. Hopefully, this will let our Experts
continue fine-tuning their fortune-telling abilities and give them
all a chance to make up some ground in the second half of the competition.
And all the Average Joe’s out there, struggling to make
the right picks for their team’s starting line up, can take
a little solace in the overall lack of insight and ability so
far displayed by the Experts. I’m keeping my fingers crossed
that we will begin to see a few more glimmers of excellence from
our competitors, but those have been few and far between through
three weeks. That is bad enough if you are getting your fantasy
information for free, completely disgraceful if you are paying
for it.
|
