Week 1
9/18/09
Every industry has experts; those sages that dispense wisdom
and truth from atop the mountain. In philosophy these learned men
wear long, flowing robes and an equally lengthy beard is required.
In fantasy football, a backwards ball cap, clipboard of notes, and
half empty bottle of Coors Light is more likely. But are these guys
truly experts? Do they know any better than the rest of us schmucks?
Each week Analyzing the Experts will take aim at one or more of
these so-called oracles and find out…
Welcome to Week One of Analyzing the Experts 2009! The first games
of the NFL season are often challenging for fantasy teams. While
the preseason gives some indication of who to start, most of the
pretend games are just that – make believe – and end
up hurting teams who rely too much on the performances and depth
charts we’ve seen over the last month. So, whether we rely
on the preseason, last year’s numbers, the local beat writer,
or our Fantasy Experts, it’s hard to have high expectations
this week. Someone will win and someone will suck. So goes the world
of fantasy football. Hopefully your fantasy teams were on the non-sucking
side Week One. Luckily, not all our Experts were.
This year we lined up fourteen Fantasy Football Experts for your
reading pleasure. Now, I can’t claim all of them are willing
participants, but that’s not really important. Any Expert
who publishes weekly start rankings is fair game. Talk is cheap
and all that sort of thing. Our lineup for this year is:
There is a great breadth of sites represented among these fourteen.
I tried to have a relatively even number of corporate-type websites
along with a representative number of independents. These provide
a good overview of the more popular fantasy football sites out
there, include all of last year’s participants, and also
squeeze in the most requested additions from readers.
Note the two pay sites: Football Guys and The Huddle. A little
explanation is in order here. I sent out an email to ten pay sites
asking them to toss me a free membership so I could include them
in the competition. It was very pleasant, included a link to the
first year’s articles,
and so on. About half didn’t respond (including our two
competitors) while the other half was not at all excited about
the opportunity to display the awesomeness their subscribers are
paying serious cash for. Another completely unauthorized email
excerpt from a pay site editor who responded to my initial request:
Editor: “We’ve found that most grading systems tend
to undervalue our methodologies. We have a very unique system
for grading players based on performance and potential and, unfortunately,
this does not always translate well to competitions like you are
proposing.”
Me: “I just want you to pick starting line ups for a team
each week. I don’t care how you do it, only the results.
If your systems work, you’ll win right?”
Editor: “Yeah, we’ll pass on the opportunity this
year.”
Me: “Schmuck.”
So, after getting my wife’s permission, I ponied
up her hard earned cash to subscribe to our two pay Experts. I’ll
be looking for that reimbursement check in my mailbox FFToday
editors….Both sites charge $27.95 for a season’s worth
of information. There are a lot of bells and whistles involved,
but grading will be simply on the starting line up recommendations.
I am greatly interested in whether these premium sites can justify
their lofty expense when there is so much free advice out there.
Of course, you sometimes get what you pay for.
After determining our Experts for the season, I randomly divided
them into two divisions, East and West because I couldn’t
come up with anything funny that wouldn’t also be offensive.
The pay sites were split as were the corporate and indie Experts
to give each division a bit of everything. Some schedules were
randomly generated, not too tough as each Expert plays everyone
once, and we are good to go.
Our team this week, ‘Apocalypse Now’, was submitted
by Mike, from the land of Mickey Mouse, overweight tourists, and
screaming children - Orlando, FL. Two things I remember from the
last time I made it to Disney World, the people watching is certainly
better than the crappy rides and an $8 amusement park hamburger
never tastes good. Stick with the overpriced beer; it makes the
crying children that inhabit every corner of the place tolerable.
Anyway, Mike plays in a long-running dynasty league and has a
pretty stacked team.
- QB: Warner, Palmer, Delhomme
- RB: MJD, Addai, Rice, C. Johnson, M. Bell, F. Jackson
- WR: Fitzgerald, Jennings, R. Williams, Welker, Avery
- TE: Clark, Cooley
- K: Carney, Graham
- Def: Steelers, Dolphins
I added in the backup kicker and defense, booting off some scrub
running backs that no one would start just to make sure our experts
had the opportunity to be wrong at all positions. This team is either
the product of a small league, some great drafts, or many completely
screw-over-the-other-team trades considering how solid and deep
it is at each position. But that’s not really the point of
all this I guess. With all the talent on this team, it should be
easy for our Experts to rack up some points, right? Scoring
is finely balanced between simplicity, fairness, and depth. Readers
can judge the success I have had with each of those categories
as the season progresses. There are twenty players for each Expert
to rank, by position, in starting order. If they are right, they
get five points. For each rank they are off, they gain one less
point. This gives them a possible 100 points each week.
Example:
FF Sharks ranks C. Johnson as their sixth RB to start this week.
Pretty ballsy, but it ended up being a great call, netting them
the full five points as he was the worst RB on this team’s
roster for Week One.
NFL.com slots Johnson in as their #2 running back. Not a great
call, since he ended up dead last in sixth place. They missed
by four spots leaving them a single point for their crappy projection.
We then total up the points by position and finally, total
points for the week. This is a head-to-head competition, so the
team with the most points wins the matchup. I use Expert rankings
rather than projected points wherever available for selecting
the Expert’s picks. The results are displayed, semi-coherently
and with pretty color coding, on the spreadsheets below. We love
spreadsheets at FFToday because they make us look smart. Occasionally
this can be misleading….Below are the Week One games with
a few comments and a some methodology notes of my own for those
interested in the gritty details:
| |
W
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D
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M
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C.
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M.
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F.
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F
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R.
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W
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A
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C
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C
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C
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G
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P
I
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M
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TPts |
| Correct |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
| AOL |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
78 |
| NFL |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
6 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
78 |
|
I don’t have very high expectations for either of these Experts,
but who knows? I wrote for AOL Fanhouse a couple years back so they
obviously aren’t very discriminating. NFL.com is slowly (and
belatedly) getting into the fantasy game. They certainly have the
financial backing to do great things, but I don’t foresee
lots of risky projections from the most ‘corporate’
of our Experts. This match up ended in a tie (I hate ties), so we’ll
have to wait a few more weeks before judging too harshly.
| |
W
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P
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D
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M
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C.
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M.
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F.
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F
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J
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R.
W
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W
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A
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C
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C
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C
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G
r
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P
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M
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TPts |
| Correct |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
| KFFL |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
6 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
78 |
| CBS |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
78 |
|
CBS Sports is being represented by Jamey Eisenberg just because
he was funnier looking than the other guy at CBS. They do not post
an average ranking for their stable of two Experts and I am too
lazy to do the averaging for them, leaving us with Jamey. KFFL is
an indie site I’ve often perused doing research. Again, another
crappy tie with average scores….
| |
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D
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M
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C.
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M.
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F.
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F
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J
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R.
W
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W
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A
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C
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C
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C
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G
r
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P
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M
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TPts |
| Correct |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
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| ESPN |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
80 |
| Yahoo! |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
6 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
78 |
|
Both of these experts are composite picks. Each site has multiple
experts giving their rankings while also providing an ‘average’
ranking created by mashing all their experts’ opinions together.
I didn’t see any reason to use one of these clowns over the
other, so I included them all. ESPN comes out on top with some slightly
better RB picks.
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F
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G
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P
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TPts |
| Correct |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
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| FOX |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
76 |
| FB Guys |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
78 |
|
I’ve loved picking on Fox Sports for years and this result
holds great promise for the unleashing of massive sarcasm and ridicule
in the weeks to come. I’ll hold back for now so I don’t
end up shoving my foot too far down my throat. Football Guys took
this one, again on the strength of running back selections.
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F
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R.
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W
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A
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C
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C
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C
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G
r
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P
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M
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TPts |
| Correct |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
| Huddle |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
6 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
82 |
| FFToday |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
78 |
|
The Huddle doesn’t post actual rankings (that I can find)
which is unfortunate. There is so much information being thrown
around it may be there somewhere. If anyone knows where, please
let me know. I was left using the projected points to set their
line up. When multiple players have the same projected points (which
happened all too frequently), I left them in the order Huddle used
– alphabetical. Both of these Experts do not post team defense
rankings. Like last year, I will take the average score among our
Experts on defense and apply is to these competitors, rounding down.
FFToday was solid, but The Huddle tied for the week’s high
score. Other than the Fred Jackson fluke, they did amazingly well
in selecting RBs.
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A
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C
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C
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C
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G
r
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P
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M
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TPts |
| Correct |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
| Rotoworld |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
6 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
76 |
| FFSharks |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
6 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
82 |
|
Our returning champion, Rotoworld, started out its title defense
in very poor fashion. It’s a bad week when you end up tied
with FoxSports for low score. FFSharks was one of the most highly
requested Expert additions at the end of last season and, through
this week at least, is justifying the hype.
| |
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G
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P
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M
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TPts |
| Correct |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
| FFCafe |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
78 |
| FFToolbox |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
80 |
|
A couple more highly requested Experts squared off Week One,
both with solid results. FFToolbox managed to squeak out a win
by being just a little bit better with those running back picks
again.
With a possible one-hundred points available, all of our Experts
struggled mightily, particular in the RB and WR rankings. F. Jackson,
M. Bell, C. Johnson, and R. Williams were all big surprises for
most everyone, leaving our Experts with rather underwhelming scores.
Seventy-eight was the popular score and the threshold for respectability.
The competitors below that line in the mud of shame were FoxSports
(no surprise) and Rotoworld (huge surprise). Meanwhile The Huddle
and FF Sharks were top dogs for Week One.
| ATE - Week
1 Standings |
| EAST |
Record |
Pts |
| The Huddle |
1-0 |
82 |
| ESPN |
1-0 |
80 |
| AOL |
0-0-1 |
78 |
| KFFL |
0-0-1 |
78 |
| FF Café |
0-1 |
78 |
| Fox |
0-1 |
76 |
| Rotoworld |
0-1 |
76 |
|
|
| ATE - Week
1 Standings |
| WEST |
Record |
Pts |
| FF Sharks |
1-0 |
82 |
| FF Toolbox |
1-0 |
80 |
| Football Guys |
1-0 |
78 |
| CBS |
0-0-1 |
78 |
| NFL |
0-0-1 |
78 |
| FF Today |
0-1 |
78 |
| Yahoo! |
0-1 |
78 |
|
|
So where do our Experts go from here? Will our pay sites continue
their success? Can Rotoworld rebound? It’s only been one a
single week, so I’ll wait and see before ramping up the ridicule.
I’m excited to see where this takes us by the end of the season.
Our competitors are clumped together right now, but I expect a couple
of them to pull away and start building a lead. After all, if an
Expert is claiming to be the best (or at least competent), shouldn’t
the results prove it? Everyone can have a couple bad weeks and some
Experts are already abusing that privilege. Maybe they ignored Fred
Jackson completely against the Patriots or they got matched up against
an Expert that had his best week of the season. The same problems
that plague fantasy owners can now haunt Fantasy Experts. Grab a
beer and enjoy that first sip, knowing you weren’t the only
one picking the wrong guys to start this week. |
