But last year was horrible. Everything went wrong and I can’t attribute it to bad luck or injuries. I have overcome both many times and at least made a feeble playoff run. The 2006 season was so bad, my wife, my freaking wife, trounced me in one league. I finally know what humiliation is….

I didn’t see much point in beating myself up over all the mistakes I made since my wife still greets me first thing in the morning with a smile and a comment like, “LaMont Jordan – yeah, nice pick”. Nothing like a little smack talk to get me in the mood. Instead, I want to take my abject humiliation and turn it into something positive. What can I do to prevent this horrible travesty from happening again?

Lesson One

All the heavy lifting for the season is done in a single day, sitting around drinking beer, eating pizza, and staring at scribbles on your clipboard or your laptop’s spreadsheet. Sure you can improve or destroy your team later on with trades and free agents. But your draft places significant limits on where your team can realistically go.

Sitting at my desk, staring at my notes from last year’s draft, and trying to forget my wife’s last comment (“The other guys in the league aren’t still picking in you, are they honey?”), I experienced a revelation. I realized what I had been doing for over a decade that has directly led to my continually having good but not great teams.

I spend a lot of time involved in the stock market and have developed some strategies and overarching philosophies. One of these is that, overall, the market is relatively efficient. All the participants have approximately the same information and abilities, so trying to beat the market requires either inside information or unique intelligence. Since the first is illegal and I am sorely lacking the second, it makes sense to just take what the market gives you rather than trying to beat it. This is known as indexing or passive investing in the financial world.

I have strongly applied this concept to my fantasy football career. I know every player’s average draft position and run right down the rankings, taking the best player according to what the fantasy football market says it should be. This always made sense to me because, just like the stock market, everyone has the same information and skills. This is obviously a very general statement as we all know that guy who reaches for every draft pick, makes horrible trades, and has spent so much time in the league’s basement they have started charging him rent.

I still believe that indexing in the stock market is the right way to go. But I now realize my mistake in applying this to fantasy football. My draft is not about maximizing long-term returns. It is about the short term. The fantasy season starts in August and ends in December. That is five months, not the twenty years my investments have. Rather than being similar to my investment portfolio, fantasy football is akin to the stock market games you see on MSNBC where the contestants start with a fictional $1 million and have six months to make as much money as possible. In the short run, there isn’t time for the market to balance out and indexing to work.

Following the crowd only makes you average; or, if you are good at it, a little above average. Just decent enough to make the playoffs but not win without quite a bit of luck. What is the solution? Taking risks. Doing what everyone else does guarantees a mediocre draft. Stepping outside the box and taking intelligent risks wins championships. It may also get you ridiculed, ostracized, and moving your own furniture into that cozy basement apartment. But the trophy only goes to first place. Everyone else is just a loser.

Remember that I said intelligent risks. Priest Holmes may be back this season, but let him come to you rather than jumping up and taking him as one of your starters. If you think Adrian Peterson truly is the next big thing, take him a round or two early. If you are certain Trent Green is going to light Miami on fire, he can be your starter. Take risks, but don’t be an idiot. That is my plan for 2007.

Lesson Two

Sometimes I just fall in love with a player. Everyone else may hate him, but I am loyal, if not intelligent. There are a couple players I have been carrying on my dynasty league roster for years now for no other reason than I think this might be the year! Unfortunately for them, I finally realized something. For some of these guys, even if everything works perfectly and this is their year, it won’t matter. Why? Because their team sucks.

I had Arlen Harris on my roster all last year waiting for the annual Kevin Jones injury. And, like clockwork, down went Jones and in went Harris. But Detroit only had nine rushing TDs the entire year. I could never start Harris because the odds of him scoring were worse than mine throughout my teenage years. Yeah, that bad.

Ernest Wilford is another guy who’s been haunting my rosters for years. He had a chance to be a starter last year. But it’s not like Jacksonville is an aerial juggernaut. They had a laughable passing offense all year and we knew that fact before the season even started. Wilford was a complete waste of space.

If you don’t think the team is at least as important as the player let me throw a couple other guys at you. How about Edgerrin James? Fourteen touchdowns with Indianapolis in 2005 and a measly six last year in Arizona highlights the importance of playing on a team that can score. With Edge gone, Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes stepped up and took the load. However it wasn’t about how talented these guys were, although I hear Rhodes is great at keg stands and beer funnels. Too bad he’s not smart enough to call a cab. Rhodes is now suspended and will be a backup in the offensive powerhouse we call the Raiders while Addai was often the third or fourth option on his college team. Regardless of talent, whoever the Colts put behind Peyton Manning is going to score frequently.

This year, I will draft a mediocre player on Indianapolis, Philadelphia, or San Diego rather than that immensely talented player in Oakland or Cleveland.

Lesson Three

It has long been a given in fantasy football that rookie quarterbacks were completely worthless in non-dynasty leagues. I toed that line until last year when my lovely bride started Matt Leinart against me in Week Twelve. He torched my team for 405 yards and two touchdowns. And to make it even worse, she apologized afterwards for embarrassing me.

Whether it was Leinart, Jay Cutler, or Vince Young, rookie quarterbacks were not only startable last season, but might have even won you a game or two. Is this a new trend in the NFL? I don’t know. But it bears watching and I won’t be dismissing all those freshly drafted college kids this year.

Lesson Four

I’ve always tried to use league rules to my advantage. I am one of those owners who know the scoring system back and forth. Truthfully, this is a no-brainer for any owner as it certainly impacts what players you should be targeting. One of my favorite tricks has been to completely ignore defenses on draft day and play the matchups throughout the season, grabbing whatever defense is playing Oakland, Tampa Bay, or Cleveland that week. And it works great.

Why not do the same thing with my kicker? Every season, whoever I draft always ends up on the waiver wire at some point in the season anyway. Last year guys like Robbie Gould and Nate Kaeding weren’t even drafted in many leagues or got cut during bye weeks. And some team always has to play the Minnesota or Arizona defense. I could use that last round pick on a running back or wide receiver flyer that could, with a lot of luck, be worthwhile. True, he will probably end up on the waiver wire by week two. But there are always startable kickers available.

Lesson Five

I mortgaged the farm last year to ensure I had the best possible starting running backs. They are the backbone, providing consistent scoring for your playoff bound team. But what happens when one of your starters goes down, either with injury or poor production? When Lamont Jordan displayed his complete uselessness to me early last season, I had no one to step up. I had to start Anthony Thomas, hoping he would vulture a TD from McGahee. When Chester Taylor wore down at the end of the season, I had to put a wide receiver in my flex spot, which is the equivalent of dropping the soap in prison.

One of your backs is going to get injured or suck. Face it. It will happen. You will need a backup that you can plug in when the worst happens. Yeah, it is very inefficient to have a solid back riding the pine when you could use some help at wideout. But, it will pay off.

After all that, we now face a fresh, new season, loaded with boundless opportunities. I will not repeat the mistakes that have doomed my previous teams. I will no longer need to listen to the obviously insincere condolences of my significant other. When she utters platitudes like, “You’ll do better next year”, I will do more than roll my eyes and hang my head in shame. I will have a plan, and stick to it. I won’t be an idiot. I don’t think my pride can take another year of my wife being fantasy football champion in our home. A man has to set some boundaries….