Target: D.J. Nestrick

IAs much fun as it is to break down all the experts’ picks, I realize that it has been a bit one-sided. These guys don’t get a chance to take their own shots at me. And, if their picks are any indication of their intelligence, I feel comfortable that I can win that battle of insults and putdowns. Truthfully, if their picks have anything to do with it, most of those clowns are asking, “Do you want fries with that?” at their new job.

So I have taken it upon myself to turn a critical eye toward my own 2006 sleeper picks. I will strive to maintain the same level of professionalism, impartiality, and respect I have displayed in my previous articles. No matter how bad my picks, I am sure my fine treatment of these previous experts has assured me a position at Fox Sports. Football knowledge there seems to be a luxury rather than a requirement.

Time to take my own lumps….

Pick #1: QB Michael Vick, Atlanta

Avg. Draft Position: 11th QB taken
Passing Yards: 2,472 - Passing Yards Rank: 22
Passing TDs: 20 - Passing TDs Rank: 10
Rushing Yards: 1,039 - Rushing Yards Rank: 1
Rushing TDs: 2 - Rushing TDs Rank: 5

I love Michael Vick like talk show hosts love Paris Hilton or George W. Bush. There is never a lack of amazingly amusing material when any of them show up. And he’s just sick to play on Madden. Roll out left. Everyone covered? Not a problem, we’ll just outrun the defense for fifty yards and then slide out of bounds. The NFL isn’t quite like that, but Vick was a steal in last year’s draft. Season after season I’ve been a Vick hater. If he were passing to Jerry Rice, the Hall Of Famer wouldn’t have seen a single Pro Bowl. Vick has a penchant for randomly throwing the ball in whatever direction looks interesting. But he was so undervalued last year I, just like Vick, could not pass.

He got his touchdowns, although he should be ashamed of himself for letting Peyton Manning get four rushing TDs compared to his measly two. And his combined yardage placed him solidly in the top ten at his position. In leagues that weight rushing yards more heavily than passing, he probably ended up in the top five for QBs by the end of the season. Along the way, he set career highs in attempts, TD passes, rushing yardage, and, sadly, passing yards.

The other options at that spot: Jake Delhomme, Kurt Warner, Ben Roethlisberger. Not only did he outperform his draft position, he helped you avoid that mess.

Lesson One: The herd often undervalues a player because he has burned them in the past. Don’t be afraid to buck the trend and get laughed at. You can laugh back in a few months while holding your trophy.

Pick #2: QB Jake Delhomme, Carolina

Avg. Draft Position: 9th QB taken
Passing Yards: 2,805 - Passing Yards Rank: 17
Passing TDs: 17 - Passing TDs Rank: 16
Rushing Yards: 12 - Rushing Yards Rank: 47
Rushing TDs: 0 - Rushing TDs Rank: 23

My second quarterback pick was not nearly as successful. Delhomme looked like a great value at #9 before the season started. Surrounded by solid talent and a fairly proficient offense, I had him penciled in for a top five finish. He had already made Muhsin Muhammad extremely rich by locking onto him for an entire season in 2004. Muhammad parlayed that year into a huge contract in Chicago. Steve Smith looked pretty darn good in 2005 and they added some guy named Keyshawn in the off-season. What wasn’t to like?

Someone on the team forgot to knock on wood, throw salt over their shoulder, or some other stupid superstition, because karma was not kind to this team. The offensive line spent the season in shambles, Smith missed a couple games early, and Jake missed three towards the end of the season. In my defense, when both Smith and Delhomme were on the field together, some solid fantasy numbers were posted even with the turnstiles up front trying to block. Delhomme on the run is a frightening image as evidenced by his amazing 12 yards rushing on the season. Unbelievably, Jake trying to throw on the run is even worse.

Who else was available? Dog-fighting aficionado Michael Vick, the elderly and broken Kurt Warner, and the eternally broken Daunte Culpepper were all there. As we’ve already covered, Vick was a great pick here. The rest were worse than Delhomme.

Lesson Two: The offensive line is just as important to quarterbacks as running backs.

Pick #3: RB Corey Dillon, New England

Avg. Draft Position: 20th RB taken
Rushing Yards: 812 - Rushing Yards Rank: 27
Rushing TDs: 13 - Rushing TDs Rank: 4
Receiving Yards: 147 - Receiving Yards Rank: 48
Receiving TDs: 0 - Receiving TDs Rank: 37

Looking at the New England backfield before the 2006 season, I saw two very good backs behind a solid offensive line, in an excellent offense. So where to take these guys? Listening to Bill Belichick spout inane coach-speak is like John Daly in a 12-step program. It all sounds good, but none of it means anything. Going with my gut, I thought Belichick would favor the veteran for at least 2006. Add in a dash of Maroney injuries and a pinch of rookie fumbilitis and I had high hopes for Dillon.

And he ended up churning out TDs like a poor man’s Jerome Bettis. I’ll take a top five finish in rushing touchdowns from a #2 RB. Dillon was drafted as a backup in some leagues where the flash on Maroney was just too powerful.

The running backs picked around Dillon were Warrick Dunn, Jamal Lewis, and Reuben Droughns. Right pick this time.

Lesson Three: Sports writers have very little to do in the off-season and spend inordinate amounts of time penning articles about flashy rookies and the backup who will break out this season. Don’t buy the hype.

Pick #4: RB T.J. Duckett, Washington

Avg. Draft Position: 43rd RB taken
Rushing Yards: 132 - Rushing Yards Rank: 72
Rushing TDs: 2 - Rushing TDs Rank: 45
Receiving Yards: 16 - Receiving Yards Rank: 127
Receiving TDs: 0 - Receiving TDs Rank: 37

Sometimes I think I’m a lot smarter than I really am. And it makes be look really, really dumb. This is one of those times. I’m sure it will happen again soon. Duckett averaged nine TDs a year over his last three seasons in Atlanta. So, when Daniel Snyder said, “Let’s throw a lot of money at this guy”, I was thinking he might be in line for a job share or at least Clinton Portis insurance.

Nope. Snyder was just throwing money away. If you have any doubt about his proclivity for doing so, please also note Brandon Lloyd, Antwaan Randle El, and Mark Brunell. Clinton did get injured of course. But Ladell Betts stepped in without missing a beat.

Who did you pass up to get this loser? Wali Lundy, Musa Smith, and Marion Barber might have all been available. Ouch!

Lesson Four A: I am occasionally an idiot.
Lesson Four B: Daniel Snyder is an even bigger idiot.

Pick #5: WR Terrell Owens, Dallas

Avg. Draft Position: 8th WR taken
Receiving Yards: 1,180 - Receiving Yards Rank: 9
Receiving TDs: 13 - Receiving TDs Rank: 1

Although TO lost his crown as NFL drama queen to the aforementioned Vick, he owned the media leading up to the 2006 season. Screaming matches with coaches, forgetting to read the playbook, and, oh yeah, a little suicide attempt made Owens the epitome of high risk. But looking over his career, year one is always the honeymoon with his new team. And if anyone could keep a tight rein on him, Bill Parcells would. Plus, my wife is a die-hard Cowboys fan who will never forgive Owens for desecrating the Dallas star. So, this was an easy pick, if only to nettle her.

The man who is the antithesis of team player made it through the season while only stabbing one quarterback in the back. Not that Bledsoe was doing himself any favors on the field. TO did manage to end the season tops in touchdown catches, putting his play on the field into focus for a pleasant change of pace.

In this tier of receivers could be found Anquan Boldin, Reggie Wayne, and Chris Chambers. TO certainly ended up as best of the bunch.

Lesson Five: Wives will always pay you back for being a jerk. Always.

So, let’s tally how I did. Add all the figures up, calculate the standard derivation, carry the one, and divide by pi….

Michael Vick: Yes
Jake Delhomme: No
Corey Dillon: Yes
TJ Duckett: Oh God No…
Terrell Owens: Yes

I owe everyone a huge apology for Duckett. Delhomme was disappointing but not complete abysmal. Vick was a sleeper but often impossible to start because of his inconsistency. The same could be said for Dillon. TO was a solid sleeper though.

I’ll give myself the benefit of the doubt, because I’m a good guy like that, and call it three out of five. Does that qualify me to forecast new sleepers for the 2007 season? Well, I’ve only received a pitifully small handful of hate mail, so I am good to go!

DJ’s Magnificent, 100% Guaranteed, Mega-Sleepers for 2007

Pick #1: QB Jake Delhomme, Carolina

Yeah, I’m a glutton for punishment. But I will stand by my prediction from last year, especially with Jake being taken in the 15 – 20th QB range. This guy is starter quality material. Projection: 3,700 passing yards and 23 passing touchdowns. Steve Smith helps make any QB look better. Add in a solid rushing game and a healthy offensive line and I see a top five finish for Delhomme. Even if he just finishes in the top ten he is a great value here.

The downsides are there of course. Keyshawn Johnson is now talking rather than playing. Wait – that’s what he has been doing for years. The elephant in the room is David Carr. Carolina paid a lot of money to bring him in and owners are concerned Jake’s job is in jeopardy. It isn’t. Remember that Carr is still a young quarterback with the extra baggage of having played in Houston, from underneath a pile of defensive lineman, the last few years. He will take the helm eventually, but not this year.

Pick #2: QB Brett Favre, Green Bay

At 37 years old, Favre isn’t getting any younger, better, or healthier. But no one in Green Bay is going to show the old man to the bench. If Favre wants to play, he’ll be out on the field representing the cheese state. Green Bay still doesn’t have a running game, leaving Brett to air it out consistently. He may throw a few more picks than owners would like, but he’s a lock for 4000 yards and 21 combined touchdowns. He’s being taken as a backup in drafts today, somewhere around the 16th QB. I can promise you there will not be 15 other quarterbacks ahead of Favre with 4,000 yards.

So what’s the problem? Um…he’s old. And his team sucks. But Favre is the Cal Ripken of the NFL. You won’t find a more durable player at any position in the league. Aaron Rogers will get his turn but not until Favre decides he is sick of playing with a bunch of no-talent clowns.

Pick #3: RB Carnell Williams, Tampa Bay

I’ve never climbed aboard the Carnell Williams bandwagon. Following his great rookie season, owners were overpaying for an injury-prone back. But, after a dismal sophomore year, his stock is cheap. While I have some concerns about whether he can stay healthy, 1,400 combined yards and 8 TDs are realistic. The team’s quarterback play has to improve, maybe giving Caddy a few more chances in the red zone.

Williams is often falling to the fourth round in standard drafts, going right around RB #21. Yeah, he is an injury risk. But there is a limited supply of starting running backs out there. Alstott and Pittman are still there, but the team made a point of not bringing in another back to compete.

Pick #4: RB Cedric Benson, Chicago

Another running back I don’t like all that much…However, the starting RB for Chicago should be going before the 3rd round. He certainly has the skills to put up 1,200 yards and 8 TDs. Who else on the team is going to do it? There is no competition for the main running gig and Chicago running backs totaled almost 1,900 yards on the ground last year, plus 14 touchdowns. Getting him as a cheap #2 RB can’t hurt you and the upside is astounding.

There are some concerns about whether Benson can stand up to a full season of pounding. He has a reputation as a bit of a crybaby. Some analysts see Adrian Peterson (the other one) stealing touches but it isn’t going to happen barring injury. Peterson will see action on third downs and occasionally spelling Benson.

Pick #5: WR Lee Evans, Buffalo

Last season Evans racked up 82 catches for 1,290 yards and 8 scores. So why is he sliding all the way down to the 15 – 20th WR bracket? What has changed in Buffalo? Evans, JP Losman, and the entire very young team have gotten another year of experience. They drafted an explosive young RB to replace McGahee. And their defense was gutted in the off-season. Expecting a similar season would once again place Evans inside the top ten at his position.

The biggest concerns about Evans are his size and whether he’s coming off a career year. He is on the smaller side for a receiver. But, other undersized wideouts have had great success. Steve Smith is the best recent example of that. Evans has never missed an NFL game. He also averaged 8 TDs per year before last year’s break out performance. So, this guy has been churning out productive numbers for three years in Buffalo.

There you have it - five guys who are a lock to outperform their draft position. Hopefully, they are more Michael Vick (minus the dog fighting, marijuana, and venereal diseases) or Terrell Owens (minus the drama and suicide attempts) and less like that waste of roster space, TJ Duckett. So why should you listen to me after I’ve spent the last bunch of articles dissecting the intellect and abilities of various experts? I have no idea. But there are no shortage of fantasy football experts and readers who follow their advice. And, as we have already seen, some of them are complete idiots while I am only occasionally one.