Target: Roger Rotter of FOXSports.com
Article: Top Sleepers For 2006

According to my Merriam-Webster dictionary, a sleeper is “someone or something unpromising or unnoticed that suddenly attains prominence or value”. For fantasy football purposes, a sleeper is a player who is undervalued for some reason—maybe he is buried on the depth chart or coming back from injury. Everyone else may be ignoring the team’s favorable coaching change or acquisition of a world-class fullback. For whatever reason, a sleeper is someone who is considered a steal at his likely draft position.

Unfortunately, picking sleepers is a challenging endeavor. These selections are intentionally going against the current of popular thought. And we aren’t talking about taking a late-round flyer on your favorite long shot. We expect starter quality players or better from our expert-selected sleepers. This is because we assume the experts to:

1) Be more intelligent than the average fantasy football enthusiast.
2) Have better information than those same owners.

Almost by definition, an expert should satisfy both of these requirements. They write for a living about fantasy football, meaning they must eat and sleep depth charts and waiver wires. And anyone who manages to get a sweet gig like this has to be super-intelligent. We all want that job. Heck, the experts working for ESPN or Fox Sports should have access to players and coaches that the rest of us lack.

So let’s see how Mr. Rotter did in his article.

To be as fair as possible, we aren’t going to break down the borderline, might or maybe picks. We are going to look at only his strongest picks. Rotter lists five “Fantasy Breakthrough Stars” who are “ready to take the next step to dominate their position” and “jump into the top 10 at their fantasy position”. His best ideas, open to us to evaluate a year later. Maybe these insights can give us an idea of how good this expert really is. Can he be our clutch guy, pinch-hitting with two down in the ninth? Or does he hit like an arthritic 70-year old with a walker and one arm in a bad beer league?

Pick #1: RB Reuben Droughns, Cleveland

Avg. Draft Position: 20th RB taken
Rushing Yards: 758 — Rushing Yards Rank: 29
Rushing TDs: 4 — Rushing TDs Rank: 35
Receiving Yards: 169 — Receiving Yards Rank: 37
Receiving TDs: 0 — Receiving TDs Rank: 37

The pitcher lobs the ball over the plate. The batter swings. Owww – not even close. Strike one.

Droughns had a rough year in 2006. Blame it on poor quarterback play, a horrible team, or the ugly orange Cleveland uniforms. The fact remains that Droughns was a dog—not a sleeper. Owners who drafted him to be their #2 RB were horribly disappointed. He was bad enough to get traded to the Giants in the off-season to back up or at best, share time with Brandon Jacobs.

Who else could have been taken at the number 20 spot? How about Frank Gore, Thomas Jones, Tatum Bell, or even Joseph Addai? All of them were taken just after some sucker jumped all over Droughns.

Lesson One: If a team can’t score touchdowns, neither will their running back.

Pick #2: WR Roy Williams, Detroit

Avg. Draft Position: 18th WR taken
Receiving Yards: 1310 — Receiving Yards Rank: 4
Receiving TDs: 7 — Receiving TDs Rank: 15

He steps back up to the plate and waits for the pitch. He winds up and sends a double into the right field corner.

While not exceptional in touchdown heavy leagues, Williams was a yardage monster. With the emergence of Mike Furrey on the other side of the field, Detroit’s best receiver was able to do some serious damage to opposing defenses and help his owners along the way. The fact that almost 200 of his yards and three touchdowns came in weeks 16 and 17, after many of his owners had been eliminated or had completed their season, takes some of the luster off his value.

What were the other options at this spot? Andre Johnson, TJ Houshmandzadeh, and Donte’ Stallworth were next off the board. Not bad. Williams was a good value even if you jumped a few spots to get him.

Lesson Two: Mike Martz is a very good thing for receivers.

Pick #3: RB Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay

Avg. Draft Position: 9th RB taken
Rushing Yards: 798 — Rushing Yards Rank: 28
Rushing TDs: 1 — Rushing TDs Rank: 56
Receiving Yards: 196 — Receiving Yards Rank: 30
Receiving TDs: 0 — Receiving TDs Rank: 37

Confident after his last at bat, he points to the left field fence and waits. The pitcher winds up and delivers. The batter takes a huge whack at the ball, gets nothing but air, and dislocates both shoulders.

Williams was the poster child for under performance last year. Similar to Droughns, poor QB play hurt his numbers. But, Cadillac definitely regressed from his stellar rookie season while the injury issues he fought throughout his college career rose up seemingly every week. The addition of Jeff Garcia to the team ought to reduce the QB problems, at least temporarily. However Caddy needs to stay healthy and produce.

This one hurt. If you had taken Williams in the first round you likely have an early pick in this year’s draft. Running backs that may have been still available when Caddy was taken: Ronnie Brown, Willis McGahee, and Brian Westbrook. Yep, this sleeper sucked.

Lesson Three A: One good season does not make a top ten running back.
Lesson Three B: It’s a dangerous game to be taking risks with those first round picks.

Pick #4: QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh

Avg. Draft Position: 14th QB taken
Passing Yards: 3528 — Passing Yards Rank: 8
Passing TDs: 18 — Passing TDs Rank: 13
Rushing Yards: 98 — Rushing Yards Rank: 20
Rushing TDs: 2 — Rushing TDs Rank: 5

The medics are finally done popping Rotter’s shoulders back into their sockets. He licks his wounds, grabs a new wad of chewing tobacco, and heads back to the plate. A foul tip keeps him alive.

Big Ben threw the ball more than ever, logging 470 attempts. While that helped him to a top- ten, yardage total, his touchdown total wasn’t impressive nor were the league leading 23 throws he made to the other team. In yardage-heavy leagues, Roethlisberger performed up to expectations while certainly not exceeding them. His owners in TD leagues were quickly regretting their decisions to pick the QB, as Ben didn’t score his first touchdown until week six.

What other options did owners have? Not much truthfully. Vick was probably gone leaving such luminaries as Drew Bledsoe and Trent Green.

Lesson Four: $40 million quarterbacks shouldn’t ride motorcycles.

Pick #5: WR Lee Evans, Buffalo

Avg. Draft Position: 25th WR taken
Receiving Yards: 1291 — Receiving Yards Rank: 5
Receiving TDs: 8 — Receiving TDs Rank: 9

Last chance. He cranks the bat around, sending the ball flying out of the park!

Lee Evans was the epitome of a sleeper in 2006. Drafted as a number three receiver in most leagues, he performed like a solid #1 for the second half of the season, including a nice 265- yard, 2-TD outing against the Texans. The emergence of J.P. Losman as a legitimate NFL quarterback certainly helped. This young combo could be doing some very nice things for a long time.

Considering how great Evans played, he was certainly the best value at his draft position. No one taking Evans is upset about missing out on the likes of Eddie Kennison, Terry Glenn, or Keyshawn Johnson.

Lesson Five: Sometimes that 3rd Year WR theory works, especially when the receiver grabbed 16 TDs in his first two years.

So let’s tally how Mr. Rotter did at picking sleepers:

Reuben Droughns – No
Roy Williams – Yes
Cadillac Williams – No
Ben Roethlisberger – No
Lee Evans – Yes

One great pick, one good pick, one that met typical expectations, and two severe disappointments were the selections. And keep in mind these were the expert’s top selections, the “Fantasy Breakthrough Stars.” Rotter gets a big fat ‘F’ grade for his draft picks. He should probably get beat up after school too.

Imagine this scene from the beginning of last season. Your draft is over and everyone is analyzing his respective team. You realize you just bagged every sleeper you had dreamed to get. It’s impossible to do, but you somehow managed it. Now it is time to trumpet your fantasy football greatness. You make sure to talk a lot of smack because you know you will dominate. Hey, you got all your sleepers!

Then your top two running backs spend the next seventeen weeks combining for 1,556 yards and five touchdowns. Yeah, your receivers are looking pretty good but there are 34 running backs that exceed or equal your combined RBs’ touchdown total by themselves.

Fast forward to the end of the season&—all that smack talk comes back to haunt you as your team shamefully grinds its way to a basement finish. You swallow your pride and promising yourself to never listen to the “experts” again.

Is Roger Rotter of FOXSports.com smarter than you or have exclusive inside information? The numbers definitively say no. Or is he just a journalist who happens to be assigned to writing a fantasy football column this month? Could you have done better? If not, drop me a line. We need a couple more owners for our league….

Mr. Rotter wasn’t the only prognosticator attempting to pick sleepers last summer. At FFToday, a handful of local experts embarked on the same task. In the interests of abusing everyone equally, let’s pick apart one of our own and his best and worst sleeper picks.

Target: Sean Gentille of FFToday.com
Article: Overvalued and Undervalued Fantasy Prospects

Best Sleeper Prediction: RB Frank Gore, San Francisco

Avg. Draft Position: 27th RB taken
Rushing Yards: 1695 — Rushing Yards Rank: 3
Rushing TDs: 8 — Rushing TDs Rank: 12
Receiving Yards: 485 — Receiving Yards Rank: 6
Receiving TDs: 1 — Receiving TDs Rank: 16

I’m running out of baseball analogies, so let’s just agree that this was a really good sleeper pick.

Gore was the running back equivalent of Lee Evans. Getting a top-three yardage back from a guy drafted to be your #3 is always a great deal. Regardless of the format, Gore ended up as a top ten RB. Hopefully he stepped up for you when Caddy or Jordan tried to drive a big, rusty stake through your post-season hopes. He emerged out of what was expected to be a crowded preseason backfield on a very young team. The same (or better) talent will be there again this season, with another year of experience under their belts. Was 2006 his career season or will he continue his impressive ascent up the fantasy RB ladder?

Who else was drafted around Gore? Reuben Droughns, Deuce McAllister, Corey Dillon, and Joseph Addai surrounded him in most drafts. While no one would have been disappointed with nabbing Addai, Gore was, not surprisingly, the best possible pick here.

Lesson Six: Don’t ignore the offensive line when selecting your running backs. Having skilled big guys up front can make a huge difference.

Worst Sleeper Prediction: WR Roddy White, Atlanta

Avg. Draft Position: 54th WR taken
Receiving Yards: 506 — Receiving Yards Rank: 62
Receiving TDs: 0 — Receiving TDs Rank: 111

The quarterback drops back, scrambles around like his jock is on fire, then throws a laser beam into the dirt at the receiver’s feet. Wait - wrong sport. Or was I just describing White’s 2006 season?

The biggest question is whether White’s numbers are his fault or that of his quarterback. We may get a good idea of the answer if Vick finds himself sitting for a few games this season. While Ron Mexico smokes a little wacky weed with one of his disease-carrying girlfriends at the dog fights, Roddy may be catching balls from Joey Harrington. Hey Atlanta, wish you hadn’t traded Matt Schaub yet?

Michael Jenkins, Ashley Lelie, and Brandon Lloyd were taken right around White. It should have been indicative that all three Atlanta receivers were taken together. Unless you got Jenkins, who somehow managed to catch some of those ducks Vick kept lobbing, you were not happy with your selection. Lesson Seven: Michael Vick will never make one of his receivers a superstar.

If Gentille had just stopped at Gore everyone would have been happier. His third and final pick was Jon Kitna, which didn’t kill anyone but probably didn’t help much either. But compared to Roger Rotter, Gentille is a freaking genius. Could you have done better on your own? It’s alright to shrug your shoulders – overall these were some solid picks.

Next article we are going to take a look at some more fresh meat – I mean another expert – and see if they can wow us with how deeply they understand the complex art of fantasy football. And then, after digging a hole I could never hope to get myself out of, I will take my own (very large) lumps from last year as well as provide some scintillating selections for the upcoming year. I will shut my mouth, pony up my own predications, and let everyone take their shots at me. It’s only fair and I’ve already ordered my humble pie….