The rest of these clowns, myself included, need a miracle to reenter the fray. Yahoo! Sports and ESPN have had some absolutely horrible weeks, often ranking well behind everyone else in their weekly selections. Similar to drivers slowing down to look over a traffic accident, we just want to check out the carnage and see how bad it may get. My Starters are set up to emulate how most fantasy teams are managed. I get up Sunday morning around 10am and grab a beer, scratch certain unmentionable areas, look over the warm bodies available, and select the ones that look good with a minimum of fuss. Not much research goes into it and a premium is put on speed and minimal effort. Thus far, it hasn’t worked all that well for me, so I guess all the research I put into my other teams may be worthwhile. Disturbingly, even half-asleep, hung over, and nursing my first beer of the morning, I am only a handful of percentage points behind the guys getting paid the big bucks to do this stuff professionally.

With eight of ten weeks down, the standings for these worthy gladiators seeking to become King of the Experts look like this:

The Team

Dropped: LaMont Jordan Signed: Bernard Berrian

Late Sunday afternoon, soundly marinated in Budweiser and wing sauce, I got word that Larry Fitzgerald was a scratch for his sweet match up against the Brownies. Like any good owner, I hurriedly logged on to my league page, took a panicked look over the available receivers who had yet to play this week, and slotted Bernard Berrian into my starting line up at exactly 3:48pm. It was better than a zero from our injured stud. Mr. Jordan, we will miss your diseased and worthless carcass dragging our running back corps down into the depths of mediocrity.

My patience with Todd Heap is quickly waning as well. However, I just didn’t care enough to look for a better tight end this week. The same could be said for a couple other positions, but, since I am somehow in first place in this league, I will continue being complacent until I lose a game or two more.

A starting lineup consists of 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 Def, or eight starters and ten bench players.

These start recommendations were all taken from the experts’ published fantasy football player rankings for Week Thirteen. The highlighted names were the most advantageous picks for the team.

Once again, the story this week is that one expert is about the same as another. There is consensus across the board at quarterback, running back, and tight end. FoxSports gets an advantage at receiver as they updated their rankings on Sunday and were able to pull Larry Fitzgerald from their list. Those Thursday Start/Bench articles are helpful, but timely information is a huge advantage for fantasy players. Kicker was the usual crap shoot and everyone other than me liked the Lions over the Packers.

The Results

The best lineup I could have put on the field in Week Thirteen would have been:

Derek Anderson
Steven Jackson
Travis Henry
Torry Holt
Patrick Crayton
Eric Johnson
Jeff Reed
Lions Defense

Once again the quarterback battle was highly contested. Anderson won it, but Kitna was a solid play as well. Steven Jackson tore things up versus Atlanta while Clinton Portis struggled a bit against the Bills. Travis Henry, coming out of that running back morass in Denver, managed a couple scores. Our experts were understandably wary of the Denver situation and Mike Shanahan’s hate for all fantasy owners. With Larry Fitzgerald being a late scratch, no one had the opportunity to put Patrick Crayton to work as he had already played his game. Of course, he wouldn’t have been anyone’s choice anyway facing a quality Green Bay secondary. Johnson once again won by default, which I will address this coming week via free agency, and Jeff Reed squeaked by Josh Brown. The Lions were a marginally better play than the Packers.

When the only real difference is the kicker, there isn’t much to talk about. Ironically, our two bottom teams got it right over everyone else, inching closer to respectability. My Starters continued to pick the wrong defense for yet another week, this time losing out in a barnburner where the Lions scored three points and the Packers two. Those are the whims of fantasy football. Pass me another beer….

After an uneventful week, here were the numbers for Week Nine of our contest:

Yahoo! 75.0%
ESPN 75.0%
RotoWorld 62.5%
FoxSports 62.5%
FFToday 60.0%
Starters 50.0%

Once again, even though our experts agreed across the board, only a kicker and the Starters’ bad defense pick separated everyone. I take some solace in the fact that my poor defense call only cost me a single point, not that it mattered for our purposes or the game. I ended up getting shellacked by the team starting Peyton Manning and newfound fantasy stud Earnest Graham. I still am barely holding onto first place, but some changes in personnel are necessary to finish the season out strong.

With only a single week remaining, the official King of the Experts standings are:

First Annual Analyzing the Experts Competition Official Standings

1. RotoWorld - 72.2%
   
2. FoxSports - 69.4%
   
3. FFToday - 67.2%
   
4. Yahoo! - 66.7%
   
5. ESPN - 66.7%
   
6. Starters - 62.5%
   

Conclusions

Excluding the Starters, our bottom feeders gained a much-needed pick on everyone else. Going into the final week, a very clear pecking order has emerged. RotoWorld has a two- pick lead over FoxSports, pretty sizeable considering we only select eight each week. Two more picks behind FoxSports is FFToday, Yahoo!, and ESPN. All of them will need a minor meltdown from RotoWorld to seize the top spot. My Starters are all but out of it, needing to make up seven picks in the final week. I guess beer in not an intelligence enhancer, no matter how much I try to convince my wife otherwise.

Positional Success Rates

Other than at defense, the remaining positions are pretty muddled, with none seemingly easier to predict than the others. Defense has been a cakewalk for our experts and a nightmare for me. Ho, hum….

QB: 59%
RB: 64%
WR: 69%
TE: 69%
K: 63%
Def: 82%

Final Thoughts

With one week remaining, will the uber-consistent RotoWorld stumble, opening the door to its worthy competitors? It doesn’t seem likely as our leader has earned its spot through the very consistency everyone else has lacked. The biggest discovery in our contest so far is how similar all the experts have been in both selections and success. When the occasional random kicker pick is all that separates our experts, the weight of luck has to be considered. Four picks divide all our experts after they have submitted 72 each. As much as I hate to say it, four out of 72 certainly falls under the heading of “statistically insignificant”. However, there is one more week to play, allowing someone (hopefully) to step up and declare, “I am the best! And everyone else sucks!” Next week we will crown the King of the Experts.