However, we still have a race to run this season and our experts are deep into the thick of it. RotoWorld has a slight lead while FFToday and others are closing in. The lack of differentiation among our experts is startling as all are separated by a very thin margin. A number of readers have emailed me saying they will be basing their future picks on our results and I say, “Go to it, with reservations”. So far, no one has proven they are much better than anyone else and, given the small sample team we are using, I wouldn’t want to place the fate of my fantasy team in the hands of an “expert” just because he has done well so far. The perfect example of this would be Roger Rotter at FoxSports. When I reviewed his selections earlier in the season, they blew and I made sure everyone knew how badly they sucked. Yet, during this contest, his results have been decent, if erratic. Did he have a bad week when I looked at him earlier? That is quite possible. Or, is he just another clueless expert who has gotten lucky so far?

Our rankings for the First Annual Analyzing the Experts Competition after six of our ten weeks are:

The Team

I made no transactions this week. With a nice winning streak under my belt, I took the easy way out and said everything was good. While there are some decent running backs available in our very shallow league, I just can’t bring myself to drop LaMont Jordan, Patrick Crayton, or Roddy White. Stupid – yes, as Jordan should be long gone. He looked so good earlier this season I don’t know if swapping him out for a Fred Taylor-type guy is worthwhile. In the mental ward known as the Raiders organization, anything can happen other than success.

A starting lineup consists of 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 Def, or eight starters and ten bench players.

These start recommendations were all taken from the experts’ published fantasy football player rankings for Week Eleven. The highlighted names were the most advantageous picks for the team.

Amazingly, with 18 players to choose from, our experts projected almost identical line ups. RotoWorld, FoxSports, and FFToday each changed out a single player from the standard while ESPN, Yahoo!, and my Starters sported the exact same picks. With this kind of consensus, I expect the numbers for the week to be astounding. This many “experts” can’t all be wrong, can they?

Fantasy owners who look over a single site’s rankings and set their line up accordingly need to recognize a couple things. First, if you ever get a chance to review multiple recommendations over the course of numerous weeks, as I have this year, you will find some lists are almost identical every single week. This week in particular I could have swapped out some of these experts recommendation lists and no one would have known the difference. They were almost identical and not just for our players, but across the board.

Alternatively, some rankings tend to get off the beaten path more often than others. I group FFToday and, surprisingly, FoxSports in this group. Being different just for the sake of uniqueness doesn’t help owners at all, but it is important to find an expert who isn’t afraid to stand out from the crowd. Of course, that chutzpah intrigues me, whereas it may be more risky than other owners would enjoy. RotoWorld, by the way, falls somewhere in the middle.

The Results

The best lineup I could have put on the field in Week Eleven would have been:

• Jon Kitna
  
• Steven Jackson
  
• Selvin Young
  
• Larry Fitzgerald
  
• Dwayne Bowe
  
• Eric Johnson
  
• Josh Brown
  
• Packers Defense

Jon Kitna narrowly beat out Derek Anderson while Selvin Young eclipsed Clinton Portis and Steven Jackson continued to roll. Travis Henry and LaMont Jordan enjoyed the view from the sidelines. God, I hate the Raiders. Larry Fitzgerald was the right pick here and rookie Dwayne Bowe barely squeaked by Torry Holt. Roddy White and Patrick Crayton were invisible this week, particularly on the stat sheet. Todd Heap sat out another one and our experts have finally learned to assume he will miss games until he is seen on the field when it counts. Josh Brown scored a couple more points than Jeff Reed and the Packers dominated on defense.

This was freaking ugly. With all our experts on the same page, I would have thought some good numbers would be in order. I guess not. In their defense, many of the best starters were determined by only a handful of points. However, just like in the real games, being close doesn’t earn a win. Interestingly, the three experts that deviated from the status quo were rewarded while the herd held their collective heads in shame.

Here are the contestant success rates for Week Seven of our contest:

• RotoWorld 62.5%
  
• FFToday 62.5%
  
• FoxSports 62.5%
  
• Starters 50.0%
  
• ESPN 50.0%
  
• Yahoo! 50.0%

What a depressing week for anyone following the advice of our contestants. When the best any of them can do is five out of eight picks, this far into the season where most of the surprises have already worked their way through the system, it calls into serious doubt whatever value they bring to the table. I could almost throw darts at my roster (and how often I have wanted to toss sharp objects at Jordan and Henry) and done as well, as evidenced by the Average Joe Starters.

After seven weeks, the official King of the Experts standings are:

First Annual Analyzing the Experts Competition Official Standings

1. RotoWorld 73.2%
   
2. FFToday 68.9%
   
3. FoxSports 67.9%
   
4. ESPN 66.1%
   
5. Yahoo! 64.3%
   
6. Starters 62.5%
   

Conclusions

No one did much of anything in a week where someone desperately needed to make a move on RotoWorld. All of our contestants are doing better than the Starters, but not by much and the bottom guys continue to slowly slide further behind the leaders. Yahoo!, sucking wind at the back of the pack, needs to make up five picks on RotoWorld to pull even. That will be a challenging task with only three weeks remaining. FFToday and FoxSports are in a position to take the lead with a single good week while ESPN has an outside chance of getting to the top. Considering how consistent RotoWorld has been, our challengers need to put it all together as we hit crunch time.

Positional Success Rates

Team personnel continues to dominate any other factors as our contestants strive to optimize my line up. Anderson versus Kitna is a toss up and no one has managed to get a good handle on it yet.

QB: 50%
RB: 68%
WR: 74%
TE: 60%
K: 64%
Def: 80%

Final Thoughts

A disappointing week for everyone involved this time. When half of the contestants grade out at 50%, no one deserves to be crowned King of the Experts. With a full roster, no bye weeks, and few injuries, our experts have looked pretty mundane, if not a little below average. The top guys continue to build their lead, while the rest will have a tough climb to get back into the race. Hopefully, next week provides some good picks and reason for optimism. I am still holding out hope that someone will prove why I should be listening to them, but it hasn’t happened yet.