Thus Far

LThe experts aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire and are currently well below the coveted two-thirds mark in projection accuracy. We try to make this contest as real world as possible, with a limited roster, bye weeks, and the ever present injury bug floating around. Our team is no exception and it hasn’t been unusual to have only a single choice at some positions, so this reported accuracy is actually a bit inflated….

Yahoo! 62.5%
RotoWorld: 62.5%
FFToday: 57.1%
ESPN: 56.3%
Starters 56.3%
FoxSports: 50.0%

The Team

I had to make a couple minor shifts in the lineup this week. Even though I have donated this team to science, I still am trying to put together a winning record, maybe even a playoff run. Nah, the Rams struggles have probably doomed my team to a .500 record Obviously, I am not doing an awe-inspiring job as owner…

Dropped: Jeff King Signed: Eric Johnson
Dropped: Seattle Defense Signed: Saints Defense

That leaves me with the following group of losers.

A starting lineup consists of 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 Def, or eight starters and ten bench players.

These start recommendations were all taken from the experts’ published fantasy football player rankings for Week Seven. The names in blue were the most advantageous picks for the team.

With Derek Anderson on a bye this week, Kitna was the only possible choice. Kudos to the experts for getting that one right. There was some disagreement on which running backs to start, although LaMont Jordan and Clinton Portis were the most popular choice. Everyone was getting votes at receiver. Torry Holt had four starts, Larry Fitzgerald three, Patrick Crayton another three, and Dwayne Bowe a couple. In unison, the experts screamed, “Screw You Heap!” after he had dissed them in back to back weeks and no one risked starting the injured tight end. It probably helped that he was declared out pretty early and Baltimore had a bye in Week 8, making it likely he would rest up and get healthy rather than risk playing. Everyone liked Jeff Reed at kicker and the experts went mostly with the Texans, although the Saints got a little love, and FFToday, as usual, abstained from the team defense selection.

The Results

The best lineup I could have put on the field in Week Seven would have been:

Jon Kitna
Clinton Portis
LaMont Jordan
Larry Fitzgerald
Torry Holt or Dwayne Bowe (tie)
Eric Johnson
Jeff Reed or Jay Feely (tie)
Houston Defense

A couple revelations quickly hit me. First, I hate non-decimal scoring. It completely messes with my system and gives the experts another out. Second, our contestants are finally getting on track. RotoWorld scored our first perfect lineup selection. Of course, this week’s scintillating success is mitigated by a number of selection limitations. The only choice they could have possible gotten incorrect were: someone other than Portis/Jordan at running back, Crayton at receiver, or the Saints on defense. The other positions were limited by either: byes, injuries, or stupid ties.

I have to say though; this is more like what I expected when I began this endeavor! I am beginning to see why these experts make the big bucks, drive expensive foreign made cars, and hang out with sports icons and Hollywood starlets. Our rankings for the week:

RotoWorld 100%
ESPN 87.5%
FFToday 85.7%
Starters 75.0%
Yahoo! 75.0%
FoxSports 75.0%

RotoWorld has been in the top three each week while both ESPN and FFToday have made the top four in every contest. Over ten weeks, that kind of consistency will win it all for someone. Yahoo! has bounced around from first to worst while FoxSports has been by far the most consistent, ranking dead last in all three weeks. That type of consistency will get you ridiculed mercilessly.

Throwing together the statistics for all three weeks, we arrive at our current contest standings.

First Annual Analyzing the Experts Competition Official Standings

1. RotoWorld 75.0%
   
2. FFToday 66.7%
   
3. ESPN 66.7%
   
4. Yahoo! 66.7%
   
5. Starters 62.5%
   
6. FoxSports 58.3%
   

Conclusions

Hhmmmm…I’m beginning to see a pattern here. Most importantly, I need to start doing a better job picking my own team and can’t embarrass myself with a further slide down the standings. I believe a little too much over-analyzing may be going on. That’s my excuse anyway. Also, if I ever see my picks match up with those of FoxSports I really need to reevaluate because their picks are sucking while comfortably bringing up the rear. I have to point out once again RotoWorld’s great picks this week and I will give a shout out to my guys at FFToday. They are tied at second while not picking the relatively easy defense category.

Now that we are getting a little more information to work with, let’s take a quick glance at a positional success rate breakdown for the contest.

QB: 67%
RB: 78%
WR: 67%
TE: 39%
K: 72%
Def: 60%

Maybe that defensive pick isn’t the slam dunk I would have expected. I’m not going to spend too much time on this as the data is still skewed quite a bit by Heap’s injury and bye weeks.

Three weeks down and seven to go. There is still time for teams to jockey for position as the spread between the best and worst teams is only about 17%, or four picks. While that may not seem like a lot, how many times have you watched your bench guys erupt for twenty or more points while your starter struggles? Or, even more embarrassing, had your bench outscore your starting lineup? If you listen to the experts and take their advice, they will make or break your season. Let’s make sure you are listening to a true “expert” and not some schmuck who doesn’t have a clue.