A quick summary of where we are before we get to the good stuff. Entering the final week, RotoWorld has built a two-pick lead over FoxSports who, in turn, has a two-pick advantage on everyone else. My Average-Joe Starters are bringing up the rear, puffing and wheezing in a feeble attempt to stay up with the pack (and failing miserably). I wish there were more drama involved, but unless RotoWorld completely hoses this week they will become King of the Experts and hold the coveted title that proves their fantasy credentials.

One last item that probably should be addressed comes from a reader who asks, “you realize this has no scientific basis, right? It was all about luck, with some more luck added in, and a dash of chance.” My sleuthing leads me to believe that someone from the ESPN Sports camp is trying to undermine the importance and relevance of our title, but yes, the reader does have a point. Considering the tight race, limited player pool, and a number of other factors, chance may have played an inordinate factor in the outcome. How much I will let everyone determine. Rest assured, next years’ contest will be bigger and better as we reinforce the shaky scientific underpinnings of the current process.

Going into the final week, the standings were:

The Team

Dropped: Bernard Berrian Signed: Roddy White
Dropped: Eric Johnson Signed: Leonard Pope
Dropped: Todd Heap Signed: Tony Scheffler
Dropped: Detroit Lions Defense Signed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense

After getting destroyed by my opposition last week, some changes were in order. Roddy White was picked up yet again while Bernard Berrian, signed as a last-minute fill in the prior week, got kicked to the curb. Anyone catching passes from Kyle Orton has no business being on my roster. My tight end position had degenerated to absolute crap with Todd Heap’s never-ending injury problems and Eric Johnson’s lack of performance. I decided to bring some new blood in and Leonard Pope immediately dislocated his ankle. On the plus side, Tony Scheffler’s value got boosted at the same time when Daniel Graham suffered a high-ankle sprain. Rough week for tight end ankles—at one point this season the Detroit Lions possessed the #1 fantasy defense. That mirage had been shattered over the last few weeks while Tampa Bay continued to show that they are the real deal. The Buccaneers also play in a division where ball security and pass blocking are just rumors.

A starting lineup consists of 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 Def, or eight starters and ten bench players.

These start recommendations were all taken from the experts’ published fantasy football player rankings for Week Fourteen. The highlighted names were the most advantageous picks for the team.

For the first time in weeks, we have some divergence among our expert picks. So many weeks it seems like these clowns roll out of bed, realize their rankings are due in thirty minutes, and jump over to a competitor’s page, hastily scribbling down their selections. Swap some middle-of-the-road guys around just to keep up appearances, and a weekly rankings list is born. Or maybe most of our experts are secretly lemmings, following the popular picks off a cliff. Whether or not they are successful, props have to go to FoxSports and FFToday for not only jumping out of the box, but also stomping it into wreckage on the way out. Each week these two experts can be counted on to take the road less traveled. Unfortunately, that middle road, with RotoWorld stomping right down it, has been the most consistent week-to-week.

Derek Anderson has been too good for anyone to ignore. Everyone loved Steven Jackson and Clinton Portis except Mike Krueger at FFToday, who was brave enough to wade into the Denver backfield mess. Our receivers were some combination of Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald, and Torry Holt, while the experts split on recommending a tight end. FFToday uniquely selected Jeff Reed at kicker and ESPN surprisingly did not follow the crowd (as they seem to do every week), instead taking the Buccaneers at defense over the Packers.

The Results

The best lineup I could have put on the field in Week Fourteen would have been:

Derek Anderson
Fred Taylor
Selvin Young
Larry Fitzgerald
Roddy White
Tony Scheffler
Josh Brown
Green Bay Packers Defense

It was a crazy week, particularly at running back where no one picked either of our top guys. Steven Jackson and Clinton Portis were decent, but Fred Taylor and Selvin Young were clearly the top picks this week. FFToday tried to guess which Denver back would be the man, reminding all of us why we hate Mike Shanahan. Derek Anderson continued his breakout season. So much for Brady Quinn, eh? I still can’t figure out which commercial is funnier: the Subway spot where Quinn says he is too busy on Sundays or the Citizen watch ad stating that Eli Manning is unstoppable. I can think of a couple advertising agencies that have some explaining to do….

Our experts were kind of right as, between them, they picked the top three receivers, leaving Torry Holt as the odd man out when the points were tabulated. Roddy White is having an unbelievable season in spite of the team around him. Tony Scheffler was the better tight end as Leonard Pope’s season ended early, Josh Brown beat out Jeff Reed, and the Packers defense was huge while the Buccaneers only average.

For all those owners out there frustrated that they never seem to make the right picks, this week should make you feel better as our experts couldn’t either. The weekly results are:

• RotoWorld 62.5%
  
• FoxSports 62.5%
  
• Yahoo! 62.5%
  
• Starters 50.0%
  
• ESPN 50.0%
  
• FFToday 47.5%

Once again, only a single pick differentiated our experts. Whether it was a receiver, tight end, kicker, or defense, the margin was pretty minimal. FFToday was double-penalized as they get the average defensive pick factored in, thereby losing .2 points due to ESPN’s poor defensive selection.

Now, for the moment we have all been waiting for. Cue the impressive, drama-inspiring music. A silence falls across the crowd….

First Annual Analyzing the Experts Competition Official Final Standings

1. RotoWorld 71.3%
   
2. FoxSports 68.8%
   
3. Yahoo! 66.3%
   
4. FFToday 65.3%
   
5. ESPN 65.0%
   
6. Starters 61.3%
   

Conclusions

Not much changed in this final week. Yahoo! was able to leapfrog FFToday as those out-the-box picks didn’t pan out this time. After 80 picks made over the course of our ten-week contest, the margin of victory from top to bottom was still only five selections. This excludes the Starters, who had a miserable showing from start to finish. All that research does make a difference and taking five minutes Sunday morning to set a line up puts an owner into a big hole.

Positional Success Rates

Not a lot of statistically relevant information here as far as I can tell. Defense surprisingly seemed to be the easiest pick for our experts to make while the rest were about the same.

QB: 63%
RB: 58%
WR: 69%
TE: 67%
K: 65%
Def: 82%

Final Thoughts

We now have our First Annual King of the Experts! Not surprisingly, the weekly consistency of RotoWorld was enough to squeak out a victory. FoxSports surprising second place finish is the big news to me. My apologies to Roger Rotter as I spent a lot of time bashing his fantasy prowess earlier in the season and he has conclusively proved me wrong. Yahoo!, FFToday, and ESPN got to the middle of the pack in very different ways. Yahoo! and ESPN were the consensus guys, almost always in the majority for each of their picks, and seldom taking a stand. FFToday went the opposite route, selecting players others were scared of. Mike Krueger’s rankings seldom looked much like anyone else’s. This led to inconsistent results over the duration of our contest. And, although we tried to compensate for it, FFToday’s lack of a defensive selection did not help their final standings either.

Next week we will have wrap-up of our contest where we take a harder look at what enabled RotoWorld to come in first and everyone else to trail from the start. We will also provide a glimpse of what will be coming next season. I have been poring over all the reader suggestions and many of them will be integrated into a deeper, more relevant contest next season. However, a big congratulations to Gregg Rosenthal and RotoWorld for their success this year!