I thought I would run a little contest between some of the bigger players in the fantasy football information realm. So, I invited a handful of experts to take part in a test of their abilities. None of them answered my phone calls and one even mentioned a restraining order, so I guess they are still upset about my earlier critiques. No hard feelings here though….

The Contest

Using a real fantasy team in a standard scoring format, compare the rankings from multiple websites to see which is the most adept at setting the starting lineup optimally. We will do this for ten weeks, starting in Week Five. This removes the first four weeks of the season from play, arguably the toughest ones to call. It also cuts the last couple weeks out to avoid having to deal with stars resting up for the playoffs and silliness of that nature. The goal is to have a fair and representative sample to determine which experts know their stuff and which do not.

The Prize

The First Annual Analyzing the Experts trophy is up for grabs. A trophy? Sweet! Keep in mind that budgets are pretty low around here so the trophy is actually an old Cellar Dweller booby prize with the engraving scratched out and replaced with a Sharpie inscribed “#1 Expert”. Worth playing for? You bet!

The Contestants

The ESPN.com Fantasy Staff
The Yahoo! Sports Staff
Gregg Rosenthal of Rotoworld.com
Roger Rotter of FoxSports.com
Mike Krueger of FFToday.com

I will set my own lineup, largely ignoring the advice of these experts, so I will be keeping track of my own accuracy as well. We have brought together a pretty good lineup of experts, however unwillingly. I tried to get Matthew Berry into this to guarantee I don’t come in last place, but he doesn’t publish an actual rankings list, excluding him from the action.

The Team

Unfortunately for me, this is an actual team I own in an experts league. When I drafted it, I thought I had the Super Bowl already won. Don’t we all? I make no excuses though, even if it is obvious the fantasy gods hate me. I have picked up and dropped a few guys since the beginning of the year and will continue to do so as conditions warrant. This team has struggled to a 3-2 record while having one of the lowest points scored in the league. I will call that a middle of the road team and am perfectly willing to sacrifice its fantasy life to further the burgeoning field of fantasy football science. It is full of decent to slightly below average players, making for some close calls in picking out a starting lineup. I had to make sure I was carrying two kickers, defenses, and tight ends since I usually do not. This team won’t be making the playoffs anyway and carrying eight running backs won’t change that.

A starting lineup consists of 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 Def, or eight starters and ten bench players.

These were all taken directly from their published fantasy football player rankings for Week Five. The names in blue were the most advantageous picks for the team. ESPN, Yahoo!, and RotoWorld were a bunch of copycats, sporting identical lineups. FoxSports dumped Holt for Bowe while FFToday definitely stepped outside the box benching Henry for Young, Holt for Bowe, and Reed for Feely.

The Results

The best lineup I could have put on the field in Week Five would have been:

Derek Anderson
Clinton Portis
Travis Henry
Larry Litzgerald
Torry Holt
Jeff King
Jay Feely
The Seattle and Houston defenses tied.

Jon Kitna’s struggles surprised everyone while Derek Anderson continues to shine while keeping the seat warm for Brady Quinn. No big surprise at running back as Henry was able to play. How long he can stay on the field is anyone’s guess. The big names excelled at receiver and Patrick Crayton almost made it, falling just short of both Fitzgerald and Holt. Heap tossed us a goose egg by missing out on the Week Five tilt with a hamstring injury. I wasn’t worried about his questionable status as he is always dinged up but hasn’t missed a game since 2004. That bond of trust has been shattered and I will monitor Heap’s health a little closer from now on. Feely lit it up, which only FFToday saw coming. The defenses tied in our non-decimal scoring format, giving everyone as easy out.

So, one week into our experiment, the standings are thus:

ESPN: 62.5%
Yahoo! 62.5%
RotoWorld: 62.5%
FFToday: 57.1%
FoxSports: 50.0%
Starters 50.0%

Conclusions

Conclusions? Nah, not after a single week. I thought it was interesting that even with a lineup limited by byes and injuries, the best performance got only five out of eight selections correct. It also looks like the big guys (ESPN, Yahoo!, RotoWorld) are a bunch of lemmings, following the sexy names wherever they go. This week it was relatively successful but I will be intrigued to see what happens when the stars don’t shine. FFToday had no problem taking some risks and that paid off at the kicker and tight end positions. After FoxSports completely hosed their analysis in an earlier Experts article, I may be a little biased, so I will withhold judgment.