Michael Penix Jr. is set as Atlanta’s starter heading into
the 2025 season after replacing a sporadic and ineffective Kirk
Cousins late in 2024. Penix’s numbers from those three starts
last season aren’t eye-popping -- 3 TDs and 3 INTs with
a 58 percent completion percentage. But the signal-caller on a
potentially lethal offense is always an enticing option, regardless
of his recent production. Apparently, his numbers from 2024 haven’t
endeared him to fantasy managers because he's being viewed as
a low-end QB2 heading into draft season.
While I think he’s being valued correctly, I do think the
return on investment could be substantial by year’s end.
First, there is continuity on the offensive side of the ball.
Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson returns, along with a scheme
that helped the Falcons finish with the 5th most passing yards
per game last season (239 yards). Second, Penix has a solid collection
of complementary pieces to throw to. And third, he’s a young,
hungry player with something to prove. For those reasons, Penix
could outplay his draft position and reward his managers. If you’re
waiting to fill your QB2 position, you could do a lot worse than
Penix.
I will never understand why former Falcons’ head coach
Arthur Smith used Bijan Robinson the way he did in 2023. Never.
Those who drafted Robinson at the top half of the first round
last year were hoping for the kind of season many expected him
to have during his rookie campaign in ’23, and he delivered.
15 total TDs, nearly 1,900 scrimmage yards, 61 receptions, and
perhaps most importantly, 61 percent of the team’s rush
attempts. That’s contrasted by getting only 40 percent of
Atlanta’s rush attempts in 2023. Bottom line: Robinson delivered
the goods in a meaningful way.
Entering this third season, Robinson is already considered by
some as the best all-around RB in the league. It certainly doesn’t
hurt that he plays behind one of the NFL’s top O-lines. More than
anything, I think the questions heading into last season are not
relevant now. Entering training camp in 2024, Zac Robinson raised
eyebrows when he praised backup RB Tyler Allgeier, saying the
BYU product was “going to have a big role.” Some considered it
classic “coach speak” while others began questioning if they should
use a top-5 pick on Robinson after his OC implied it would be
some degree of a timeshare in the backfield. In the end, Allgeier
was a non-factor relative to Robinson’s productivity. We should
expect more of the same in 2025. If you have the No.1 overall
selection, Robinson should be your choice.
Drafting Tyler Allgeier as a handcuff for Robinson is about the
extent of his value. If Robinson is not on your squad, I would
not advise selecting Allgeier. He has no stand-alone value and
would only serve to occupy a roster spot that should be reserved
for those better positioned to receive playing time. Last year,
he finished with the fewest rushing attempts (137) and rushing
yards (644) of his career, which, of course, coincides with Bijan’s
ascension. Expect more of the same in 2025.
Along with Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts, fantasy managers expected
the much-needed head coaching change heading into the 2024 season
would greatly benefit Drake London. He finished with career highs
in targets (158), receptions (100), receiving yards (1,271), and
receiving TDs (9). So, yeah. It did. London is a big-bodied receiver
who can make contested catches while also possessing the ability
to break tackles and/or run over DBs. He’s a poor man’s Mike Evans
who, if Penix develops the way the organization expects him to,
could inch closer to reaching Evans’ effectiveness and consistency
as a wideout.
London is not known as a downfield burner, but he’s a monster
in the intermediate areas. Perhaps the one component of his game
that’s stalling his jump into the discussion of one of the
top-5 receivers in the league is his inconsistency. In the middle
of the ’24 season, there was a stretch where he only scored
twice over a nine-game period. Granted, that coincided with Cousins’
struggles, but that’s not going to cut it if he desires
to reach the upper echelon of pass catchers. Still, London is
a solid low-end WR1 heading into this season who could take the
next step if Penix delivers on his tremendous promise.
Few people were talking about Darnell Mooney this time last season.
After four pedestrian seasons in Chicago, Mooney entered the 2025
draft season as WR2 in Atlanta with little buzz about his prospects.
Well, he finished the season with career highs across the board
in targets (106), receptions (64), receiving yards (992), and
receiving TDs (5). Those are solid numbers for what many consider
a low-end WR3/high-end WR4.
To be sure, QB Michael Penix Jr. has the arm to utilize Mooney
as the deep threat of the team. He led the Falcons in yards per
catch with 15.5, and that should repeat in 2025. And since he
has solidified his role on the Falcons as a WR2, he is well positioned
to pick up where he left off in 2024. Target Mooney somewhere
in the low double-digit rounds, and you may have yourself a solid
contributor all year long.
I’m not sure where to begin with Kyle Pitts. Selected fourth
overall in 2021, has his lack of productivity been due to scheme,
injuries, or is he simply not as good as his draft capital suggests?
Perhaps it’s a combination of all three. One thing’s
for sure: he’s finally ranked where he should be: as a TE2.
What a slow, steady decline for a once-promising player many called
a unicorn upon his arrival to the league. It started great—a
1,000-yard season as a rookie. Since then, it’s been anything
but. He’s already entering his fifth season, and it will
be hard to shake his perception of a slightly above-average player
that fantasy owners should not rely on. It's as simple as that.
Take him in the double-digit rounds and hope for the best.
