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AFC Post-Draft Fantasy Winners and Losers for 2026

By Taylor Lambert | 5/8/26  

With the NFL Draft and free agency now in the rearview mirror, fantasy forecasts are starting to take shape. While there’s still a long road ahead, enough information is available to begin projecting fantasy value.

Now that the incoming rookie class has found homes, which veterans emerged from the offseason unscathed, and which players lost some of their luster?

Winners

QB Cam Ward, TEN

Cam Ward

It was a fairly underwhelming rookie season for Cam Ward. Tennessee didn't exactly provide an ideal environment for him to succeed. His primary receiving threats consisted of an aging Calvin Ridley, who played in only seven games, along with rookies Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike. The team's leading receiver was tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo, who still failed to eclipse 600 receiving yards.

With the fourth pick in this year's draft, the Titans landed a legitimate WR1 prospect in Ohio State's Carnell Tate. The rookie is a versatile playmaker capable of winning at all three levels of the field. Newly hired offensive coordinator Brian Daboll should have plenty of flexibility moving Tate around the formation, giving Ward a reliable weapon he desperately lacked as a rookie.

QB Bo Nix, DEN

While Denver didn't draft a top-tier receiver, they traded away their first-round pick to Miami in exchange for Jaylen Waddle. Prior to the move, the Broncos had a talented collection of pass-catchers, but none who truly projected as a WR1.

Waddle complements Courtland Sutton exceptionally well. Sutton thrives on the perimeter and in contested-catch situations, while Waddle brings explosive speed and dangerous yards-after-catch ability.

Nix is an unconventional winner in the sense that the draft itself didn't directly boost his value. However, Denver's aggressive effort to improve the receiving corps significantly raises the ceiling for the young quarterback heading into 2026.

QB Geno Smith, NYJ

Unless you play in a SuperFlex or two-quarterback league, Geno Smith shouldn't be on your fantasy radar. Still, it's difficult to ignore the Jets using two first-round picks on TE Kenyon Sadiq and WR Omar Cooper Jr. Equally important, New York passing on quarterback Ty Simpson effectively solidifies Geno's status as the starter for this season.

Sadiq is an exceptional athlete at tight end who tested off the charts at the combine and projects as a potential mismatch nightmare. Cooper, meanwhile, served as Fernando Mendoza's top target at Indiana and brings strong ball skills along with big-play ability.

You won't be drafting Geno in standard leagues, but he's worth monitoring as a potential streaming option if the supporting cast develops quickly.

RB Chase Brown, CIN

It always felt unlikely that Jeremiyah Love would fall to Cincinnati at No. 10 overall, but the Bengals' reported interest was enough to create some concern for Chase Brown supporters.

Ultimately, Cincinnati didn't address the running back position at any point during the draft. As things currently stand, Brown's primary competition for touches comes from Samaje Perine and Tahj Brooks.

Brown finished 10th in total running back touches last season and appears positioned for another heavy workload in 2026.

RB David Montgomery, HOU

Houston acquired David Montgomery from Detroit earlier this offseason for a 4th-round pick, pairing him with second-year back Woody Marks in the backfield. Given Montgomery's résumé and the investment the Texans made to bring him in, he projects as the likely Week 1 starter.

While Houston will probably utilize a committee approach, Montgomery should receive the first opportunity at fantasy-relevant volume.

The Texans also helped their rushing attack by selecting Georgia Tech guard Keylan Rutledge with their first draft pick. Houston's offensive line struggled badly last season, so reinforcing the interior should provide a much-needed boost to the run game.

WR Rashee Rice, KC

It's been a turbulent stretch for Rashee Rice. Between injuries and off-field issues, he has appeared in only 12 games over the past two seasons.

As the draft approached, there were whispers connecting Kansas City to Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson in Round 1. Instead, the Chiefs opted to strengthen their secondary by trading up for LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane.

Kansas City eventually selected Louisiana Tech receiver Cyrus Allen in the fifth round, but he projects as more of a depth piece behind Tyquan Thornton.

Travis Kelce continues to age, and Xavier Worthy has yet to establish himself as a reliable top option. For now, Rice still appears to have a firm grip on the WR1 role in Kansas City's offense.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC

Fantasy managers didn't get the sophomore breakout they hoped for from Ladd McConkey. After posting 1,149 receiving yards as a rookie, he failed to reach 800 yards last season.

To be fair, injuries along the offensive line derailed much of the Chargers' offense. This year, Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater return healthy, while the team also signed center Tyler Biadasz and drafted interior lineman Jake Slaughter to further strengthen the unit.

The Chargers also upgraded their offensive play-calling by hiring Mike McDaniel. Combined with minimal additions at wide receiver outside of fourth-round rookie Brenen Thompson, McConkey is in a strong position to rebound.

TE Brock Bowers, LV

Let's be honest: Brock Bowers was already going to be one of the first two tight ends selected in fantasy drafts this year. The Raiders' offseason changes may simply strengthen his case further.

The Geno Smith experiment is over, and Las Vegas responded by signing Kirk Cousins and drafting Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick. Neither guarantees elite quarterback play, but the position should at least stabilize compared to last season.

Meanwhile, the Raiders' receiver room remains underwhelming, featuring Jalen Nailor, Jack Bech, and Tre Tucker. Bowers is unquestionably the focal point of the offense, and his target share could rival Trey McBride's massive 27.4% mark from last season.

Losers

QB Malik Willis, MIA

If Bo Nix benefits from gaining Jaylen Waddle, the opposite applies to Malik Willis.

After an encouraging stint filling in for Jordan Love, Willis signed with Miami in hopes of securing a starting opportunity. Unfortunately, the Dolphins dealt away Waddle and entered the draft with Malik Washington and Jalen Tolbert as their top receivers.

Rather than targeting a receiver early, Miami selected polarizing offensive tackle Kadyn Proctor in the first round.

The Dolphins eventually added several pass-catchers on Day 2, including WR Caleb Douglas, TE Will Kacmarek, and WR Chris Bell, but none project as immediate top options. Miami suddenly has depth, but lacks a clear centerpiece in the passing game.

RB RJ Harvey, DEN

RJ Harvey

Sean Payton and the Broncos surprised many observers when they selected RJ Harvey in the second round of the 2025 draft. One year later, the outlook appears far less optimistic.

Although Harvey scored 12 touchdowns last season, much of that production came while filling in for the injured J.K. Dobbins. Outside of the scoring totals, efficiency was a concern. Harvey ran for only 3.7 yards a clip, and his average yards-per-reception total was just above league-average at 7.6.

Denver re-signed Dobbins this offseason, and Payton's public praise of the veteran has raised concerns for Harvey supporters. The Broncos also added running back Jonah Coleman near the top of the fourth round.

Historically, Day 3 running backs carry a low hit rate, but Coleman was viewed favorably by many evaluators. Combined with Dobbins' return, Denver's backfield suddenly looks crowded.

WR Jerry Jeudy, CLE

Through six NFL seasons, Jerry Jeudy still hasn't fully lived up to expectations as a former first-round pick.

He finally eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in Year 5, but followed it up with a disappointing 2025 campaign. Cleveland responded aggressively by selecting both KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston with premium draft capital.

The quarterback situation remains equally concerning. Deshaun Watson is currently expected to open the season as the starter, though Shedeur Sanders remains firmly in the mix.

Between uncertain quarterback play and a crowded receiving corps, it's difficult to confidently endorse anyone in Cleveland's passing attack.

WR Wan'Dale Robinson & Calvin Ridley, TEN

Heading into draft week, Tennessee had frequently been linked to Jeremiyah Love or one of several defensive prospects at No. 4 overall. Instead, the Titans surprised many by selecting Carnell Tate.

After Brian Daboll arrived in Tennessee, the team reunited him with Wan'Dale Robinson, who quietly expanded his game last season beyond being strictly a short-area target. His familiarity with Daboll's system gave him intriguing late-round sleeper appeal entering the offseason.

The addition of Tate complicates that projection significantly.

As for Ridley, his career trajectory has been trending downward for several years. Entering last season, he was still viewed as the top option in Tennessee's receiver room. Now, he could realistically fall to WR2 or WR3 duties depending on Tate's development.

TE Harold Fannin Jr., CLE

Fannin delivered an outstanding rookie season, leading Cleveland in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns despite inconsistent quarterback play.

That made him particularly appealing from a fantasy perspective heading into 2026, especially given the possibility of remaining the focal point of the passing attack.

However, Cleveland's aggressive investment at wide receiver changes the equation. Adding both KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston creates significantly more competition for targets.

Fannin's chemistry with Shedeur Sanders could help if Sanders wins the starting job, but his path to consistent target volume is much more difficult than it was a few months ago.

TE Mason Taylor, NYJ

Of all the fantasy losers in this article, Mason Taylor may have taken the biggest hit.

The Jets selecting Kenyon Sadiq with the 16th overall pick caused Taylor's fantasy stock to plummet almost immediately. Despite the influx of talent, there are still major questions surrounding New York's offense, making it difficult to justify investing in a player who could realistically be fourth in the pecking order for targets.

Taylor's breakout appeal was always tied partially to opportunity. Before the Jets added two first-round pass-catchers, he had a legitimate chance to finish second on the team in targets.

Now, barring multiple injuries, Taylor likely won't even factor into the streaming conversation.