Week 4
9/29/06
It's still early in the season, but already we're beginning to
notice which offenses in the league are taking off, and which
ones have been major disappointments. Most have already taken
note of the surprise air attack in Chicago, while others are wondering
if the Dolphins will ever get theirs going. There's also been
a couple of injuries to starters within the past week that have
given value to their back-ups. Heading into Week 4, here's a look
at some players who seem to be finding their groove, and others
who can't seem to get themselves on track.
Steppin' Up
Brett Favre, GB: After Favre's
poor performance in Week 1 against the Bears, many were quick
to write off the former 3-time league MVP. He bounced back in
Week 2 however, with a 340-yard, 3-TD outing against the Saints
and followed that up with another 340-yard, 3-TD day in Detroit.
Favre may no longer be the consistent performer he was in his
prime, but he's shown yet again that you can't count him out.
If he keeps at this pace, he's a must start every week. For now,
consider him a solid back up worth playing against mediocre and
poor defenses. He's still just as likely to throw 3 interceptions
in a game as he is 3 touchdowns.
Jon Kitna, DET: Kitna's inability
to throw a touchdown pass two games into the season had many wondering
whether this "sleeper" QB would pan out. He delivered
in week 3, throwing for 2 touchdowns and 342 yards in a loss to
the Packers. Through three games he has completed 64.5% of his
passes and is averaging 7.5 yards per attempt. If he keeps his
accuracy up he should be able to finish the year with 20 or more
TD passes and throw for 3500-3600 yards, making him a productive
#2 QB in fantasy leagues. If you're lacking productivity at the
QB position, Kitna may help you out.
Alex Smith, SF: Three games
into the season and Smith is averaging 1 TD and 271 passing yards
a game. He's also yet to throw an interception despite throwing
40 or more times in two of those outings. Likely undrafted in
most leagues, and possibly still available in others, Smith is
among the hottest QBs going at the moment. Trouble is, his productivity
is such a surprise that nobody's been starting him. With games
against Kansas City and Oakland on the horizon, expect Smith to
continue producing over the next two weeks.
Steppin' Down
Daunte Culpepper, MIA: Culpepper's
arrival in Miami during the offseason was expected to provide
a boost to the Dolphins offense. Instead, the one time Viking
is off to a poor start. He has thrown just 1 touchdown pass to
3 interceptions. His poor outings the first two weeks could be
chalked up to playing tough defenses, but his 168-yard, zero touchdown
pass performance against the Titans last Sunday makes one wonder
not only when, but if the Dolphins offense will begin turning
things around. If Culpepper sputters again this week against the
Texans, it could be a long season for his owners.
Kurt Warner, ARI: After throwing
three interceptions and losing one fumble against the Rams last
Sunday, Arizona head coach Dennis Green considered benching Warner
in favor of the tenth overall pick in this year's draft, Matt
Leinart. He has since rethought that decision, naming Kurt Warner
the team's starting QB for week four's match-up against the Falcons.
Still, the Cardinals are 1-2 and as the losses pile up, Leinart
gets closer and closer to starting. In order for Warner to hold
onto the starting gig, he won't only have to play well, but the
Cardinals will also need to win enough games to keep themselves
in the playoff hunt.
Steppin' Up
Tatum Bell, DEN: Mike Bell was
named the Broncos starting tailback in the preseason, but it's
Tatum who has been getting most of the work in the backfield.
He's carried 58 times for 295 yards (5.1 YPC), and after rushing
27 times 123 yards last week, appears to be taking over more of
a featured role in Denver. If Tatum continues getting nearly 20
carries a game, he should have no problem going over a thousand
yards this season. If he starts reaching the endzone consistently,
he could become a legitimate #1 fantasy back.
Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC: After
carrying the ball just four times over the first two weeks of
the season, Jones-Drew saw extended action against the Colts last
week. He rushed for 103 yards on 13 carries and had 4 receptions
for 32 yards, including 1 for a touchdown. With the ever fragile
Fred Taylor still leading the way in Jacksonville, Jones-Drew
becomes an important handcuff to his owners. Even as Taylor's
back-up, Drew will likely be a useful #3 or #4 fantasy back as
he becomes more involved with the offense as the season progresses.
Michael Robinson, SF: With Frank
Gore having troubles protecting the football near the goal line,
Michael Robinson is expected to start taking away his looks from
inside the five. San Francisco 49ers head coach Mike Nolan, is
on the record stating that the 6'1", 218 pound Robinson is
better suited to handle the short yardage situations, and after
scoring twice near the goal line last week, he's given his coach
more reason to believe he can be used in that role. If he continues
getting the carries at the goal line, consider Robinson a decent
#4 back in fantasy leagues.
Maurice Morris, SEA: Shaun
Alexander's broken foot is expected to sideline him for up to
four weeks. In the meantime, five-year vet Maurice Morris will
be taking over the starting role. How productive he'll be remains
to be seen, but as Seattle's starter, he should be able to total
at least 60-80 yards a game on a consistent basis and may produce
as a solid #2RB in fantasy leagues. His match-up in Week 4 against
the Bears however, doesn't bode well for him.
Steppin' Down
T.J. Duckett: When the Redskins
traded a 3rd round pick to the Atlanta Falcons in exchange for
Duckett, he was expected to have at least some role within the
offense. Instead, the former 1st round pick has had just five
carries in three games. With the return of Clinton Portis to the
starting line-up, there's little reason to expect an increase
in his production. He may start getting goal line looks at some
point during the season, but at this point, with Ladell Betts
serving as Portis' primary back-up, there's little reason to keep
Duckett on your roster.
Shaun Alexander, SEA: Alexander
suffered a broken foot in last Sunday's 42-30 win over the Giants
last week. The injury is expected to sideline him for up to 4
weeks. Having averaged just 2.9 yards per carry before the injury,
let's hope it isn't something that hampers him upon his return.
Steppin' Up
Javon Walker, DEN: When the
Broncos acquired Javon Walker form the Packers on draft day, it
was undetermined what role he would have in the offense. We knew
he'd be starting, but with Rod Smith still hanging around, it
was unclear which receiver would be Plummer's top target. Three
games in and Walker has 11 receptions, 250 yards and 2 touchdowns.
By comparison, Smith matches Walker with 11 receptions, but has
just 94 yards. If Plummer can turn his slow start around, Walker
could go on to produce as a #1 receiver in fantasy leagues. For
the time being, consider him a high end #2WR.
Antonio Bryant, SF: Bryant may
have had a poor showing last week, but if it weren't for a few
errant passes from Alex Smith, he could have been well on his
way to his third straight 100-yard game this season. He's been
a frequent target in San Francisco, catching 4 balls in each of
those 3 games. With an improved showing from the 49ers offense
this season, Bryan could go on to have a career year. Bryant was
drafted as a #3 WR in most fantasy leagues, but he could be a
reliable #2 if Smith keeps performing like he has.
Steppin' Down
Chris Chambers, MIA: Chambers
is still receiving plenty of looks in Miami (he has 13 receptions
in just 3 games), but the inability of the offense to get anything
going is hurting his production. His yards per catch (11.8) is
nearly three yards below his career average of 14.5 and if the
offense continues to sputter, Chambers TD totals could drop off
quite a bit from the 11 he had a season ago. Going against the
Texans in Week 4, Chambers should have his best game of the season.
Then again, the Titans were able to limit him last week as the
Dolphins squeaked out a 13-10 victory. Chambers was supposed to
be a legitmate #1 fantasy receiver this season, but at the moment
he feels more like a #3 option. If the Dolphins struggle in Houston,
it may be time to accept the fact that none of their players are
going to perform up to expectations.
Rod Smith, DEN: As noted above,
Smith has 11 receptions through three games with just 94 yards
to show for it. With Javon Walker on board, and Smith struggling
to get open downfield, it appears he could be headed for his worst
season since 2003. He's worth owning if you have the roster space
available, but if he doesn't turn things around he'll be no better
than a #4 or #5 fantasy receiver this year.
Steppin' Up
Eric Johnson, SF: With Vernon
Davis expected to miss 4 weeks due to a broken fibula in his right
leg, expect Eric Johnson to become a viable fantasy option at
tight end. He caught 7 balls for 87 yards and a TD last week after
seeing extended time on the field and should continue getting
looks at least until Davis returns. If you're weak at the TE position,
or simply want a better back-up, grab him.
Kellen Winslow, CLE: After missing
nearly the first two entire seasons of his NFL career, it was
unclear what type of impact Winslow would have on the field this
year. His 19 receptions is tops in the league among tight ends,
along with his 197 receiving yards. If he keeps playing at this
level, and there's no reason to think he won't, Winslow could
finish among the Top 5 fantasy tight ends.
Steppin' Down
Randy McMichael, MIA: Like the
rest of the Dolphins offense, McMichael is struggling to be productive.
In fact, he's struggling more than most on the Miami offense as
he has just 6 receptions for 59 yards through the first three
weeks. If you drafted him as your starting tight end, make sure
you have a solid back-up should the Dolphins woes continue throughout
the season.
|
