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Steppin' Up Steppin Down
Week 1
9/8/06

With the preseason completed and kickoff to the 2006 season hours away, we have a better feel for certain situations around the league. Some players have seen their stock rise by outplaying their competition For others, it may have been a trade that's given them increased opportunity. In the case of running back Wali Lundy, it is Domanick Davis' knee injury that has seen his value on the rise. In this column, we'll take a weekly look at the obvious, and not-so-obvious players whose stock is rising and falling throughout the year. During the season, we'll have suggestions on players that may be waiver wire gems, and others that may be worth acquiring before the cat's out of the bag. Based on recent happenings around the league, here's a look at players you may want to squeeze onto your roster, and those you may want to drop to make the space to add them before the season is officially underway. We'll also comment on players already owned in your leagues, but have seen their value change in the past few weeks.

Quarterbacks

Steppin' Up

Donovan McNabb, PHI: Already widely considered a top 5 quarterback in fantasy leagues, McNabb saw a boost in value these past weeks as the Eagles acquired Donte' Stallworth from the New Orleans Saints. The addition of the Saints' veteran provides McNabb a legitimate deep threat and presents Reggie Brown with the opportunity to get open more easily. It should also open up the middle of the field, making tight end L.J. Smith an easier target for McNabb to find. With 23 TD receptions in 56 games over the past 4 years, Stallworth should also provide a slight boost to McNabb's TD production.

J.P. Losman, BUF: At the start of the preseason, Losman was in a battle with 10-year vet, Kelly Holcomb, to be named the Bills starting quarterback. A little more than a week ago, after a preseason in which Losman completed 67.7% of his passes (42 of 62), averaged 8.3 an attempt, with 2 TDs and 2 INTs for 514 yards and a 90.4 QB rating, he was named the opening day starter. While Losman is likely going un-drafted in most leagues, he's worth keeping an eye on. Third-year wide receiver Lee Evans is poised for a break out season as he steps into the number one wideout spot following the departure of Eric Moulds to the Houston Texans. Willis McGahee, a disappointment in 2005, is capable of rushing for over 1,200 yards and scoring double-digit touchdowns. Peerless Price also returns to the team to start opposite Evans in the passing game. There is enough talent surrounding Losman to make him a useful back-up in fantasy leagues, but the O-line's performance, and that of Losman himself, will ultimately determine if he's better left on the waiver wire this season.

Matt Leinart, ARI: Despite a holdout that lasted into the second week of the preseason, Leinart saw action just a few days after coming to terms on a contract with the Cardinals. In three preseason games, he has completed 61.7% of his passes (29 of 47) for 314 yards and thrown 2 TDs with no INTs for a QB rating of 95.5. It's rare that a rookie signal caller makes an immediate impact in the NFL (or fantasy leagues), but Leinart is one that could break the mold. Kurt Warner is the Cardinals starting QB, but he's injury prone and isn't likely to be in their plans after the season. An injury to Warner could put Leinart on the field sooner than expected, while a poor record could have Dennis Green looking towards next year and plugging him into the line-up over the final 4-6 weeks of the season. With Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin at wideout, and Edgerrin James in his backfield, Leinart will be a useful backup in fantasy leagues once he's on the field. Come fantasy playoff time, he might even be starting for some of us. It may be difficult to use a roster spot on a back-up QB early in the season, but if you own Warner, I'd suggest grabbing Leinart if he's available. If you're weak at the QB position and want someone who could produce better than what you have late in the year, you should also think about picking him up.

Steppin' Down

Rex Grossman, CHI: Not really a hot commodity to begin with, Grossman has done nothing to silence his critics this preseason. Instead, his poor performance (51.9% completion percentage, 1 TD, 2 INTs and a 60.7 QB rating) has sparked a QB controversy in Chicago. Brian Griese was signed as a free agent in the offseason to be an insurance policy to the oft-injured Grossman. After a strong preseason campaign, coupled with Grossman's poor efforts however, there are those that feel he should be starting on opening day. Head coach Lovie Smith hasn't wavered on his stance that Grossman is the starter, but a few poor games early in the season, and the former Florida Gator could be holding a clipboard as Griese takes over under center for the Bears.

Mark Brunell, WAS: Prior to the start of the 2006 preseason, there was reason to be optimistic about Brunell's chances for success. The Redskins signed Antwaan Randle-El in free agency and traded with the San Francisco 49ers to acquire the services of three-year vet, Brandon Lloyd. Joe Gibbs also made the decision to add former Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator Al Saunders, to his staff and hand over play calling responsibilities to the new arrival. With Santana Moss, Clinton Portis and Chris Cooley already in place, the new additions were expected to propel the Redskins offense to one of the better units in the league. Instead, Portis' status is up in the air after dislocating his shoulder in Week 1 of the preseason. Meanwhile, Brunell has posted a 49.0 QB rating as he completed just 16 of 35 attempts (45.7%) for 174 yards (5.0 yards per attempt) with 0 TDs and 1 INT in 4 preseason games. With Portis at less than 100%, and Brunell no longer being the player he once was, it's time to look for a better QB option if Brunell is on your roster.

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT: After being involved in a motorcycle accident during the offseason that doctors say nearly cost Roethlisberger his life, the Steelers quarterback was back on the field and ready to go for the start of preseason. Just days before Pittsburgh's kickoff to the regular season however, Big Ben found himself sidelined due to other circumstances. Having fell ill before practice on Sunday, Roethlisberger was sent to the hospital to have an emergency appendectomy performed. The surgery will prevent the two year vet from starting Thursday's opener. His status after week one's game will be day-to-day, but he could miss anywhere from 1-3 games. The missed time lowers his value and is not the best way for him, or his fantasy owners, to start the season.

Running Backs

Steppin' Up

Thomas Jones, CHI: After skipping "voluntary" workouts in the spring, Lovie Smith demoted the Bears leading rusher in 2005 and 2004 to second on the depth chart behind 2006 first round pick, Cedric Benson. Benson however, suffered a shoulder injury early in camp that prevented him from participating in the preseason. Jones was dealing with a hamstring injury of his own that kept him from getting on the field, but he returned in time to see limited action in the last two games of the preseason. With neither back seeing much, or any action leading up to Week 1, it was uncertain which back would be Chicago's primary ball carrier. Within the past few days, Lovie Smith cleared things up for fantasy owners as he named Thomas Jones the opening day starter. Benson will pressure him throughout the year, but as long as Jones retains his position atop the depth chart, you can expect him to see nearly 15-20 carries a game.

Wali Lundy, HOU: A sixth round pick out of Virginia, Wali Lundy wasn't expected to factor into fantasy rankings this season. With Domanick Davis missing all of the preseason with a knee injury, and eventually being placed on injured reserve as a result however, Lundy finds himself atop the Texans depth chart as the 2006 season sets to kickoff. Consider him a solid #3-4 RB as it's likely he'll be part of a RBBC in Houston. Considering second year man Vernand Morency, and the newly acquired Ron Dayne will be his only competition in the backfield however, there's a chance he could develop into a #2 fantasy back should he impress beyond the coaches expectations.

Correll Buckhalter, PHI: With three knee surgeries in the past four years, Buckhalter was considered a longshot to make the Eagles final roster at the start of the preseason. He sat out the Hall Of Fame game against the Raiders then missed the following weeks match-up against the Browns. When Buckhalter made his 2006 preseason debut against the Baltimore Ravens he only carried 5 times for 8 yards in his first action in over a year, but it was a 48-yard catch and run that had Buckhalter looking like his old self. The following week he provided another encouraging performance as he carried 7 times for 31 yards an added 16 more on 4 receptions. Currently, he stands to be the primary back-up to Brian Westbrook on the Eagles roster, but with the rotation Andy Reid uses at the position, you can be sure Buckhalter will prove valuable in fantasy leagues.

Steppin' Down

Clinton Portis, WAS: No secret here. The dislocated shoulder Portis suffered in week 1 of the preseason has clearly hurt his value. While he's expected to return early in the year (he may only miss a game or two), the Redskins were concerned enough that they sent a 3rd round pick Atlanta's way to acquire T.J. Duckett. The 5'11", 254-pound Duckett is built to handle the dirty work in short yardage and goal line situations--two areas of the game in which Portis isn't likely to be used as often this season. As a result, Portis may rack up plenty of yards, but his TD totals are likely to take a hit. Depending on how successful the Redskins offense performs as a unit, Portis could still reach double-digit touchdowns this season, but expect Duckett to take 5-8 away from him at the goal line.

Chris Brown, TEN: Unhappy with the Titans selection of LenDale White in the second round of this years draft, Chris Brown made it known by asking Tennessee to trade him. Now with Week 1 of the regular season approaching, there are reports Travis Henry has taken his place atop the team's depth chart. True or not, head coach Jeff Fisher has acknowledged he'd like to get back to a more run-oriented offense using all three backs on his roster. While establishing a more productive ground game should be encouraging news to Brown owners, the rumors of Travis Henry taking over the top spot, and Fisher's suggestion that he'll work all three backs into the rotation are not. At this point, only Fisher and his staff know which back they plan on giving the majority of the Titans carries to this year.

Wide Receivers

Steppin' Up

Greg Jennings, GB: Jennings was a second round pick by the Packers in this years draft and expected to provide much needed depth at the position. Heading into Week 1 however, head coach Mike McCarthy named him the starter opposite Donald Driver. Robert Ferguson had the inside track on the #2 spot at the start of camp, but after the rookie recorded 12 receptions for 328 yards and 1 TD in the preseason, it's now his job to lose. Rookie wide outs don't often make an immediate impact in the NFL, but as long as Favre is under center, and Jennings is in the starting lineup, he should be no worse than a #4 receiver in fantasy leagues.

Braylon Edwards, CLE: Edwards posted 32 receptions for 512 yards and 3 TDs as a rookie last season, but was forced to the sidelines and missed the rest of the year after tearing his ACL in a Week 13 match-up against the Jaguars. The injury was expected to keep him off the field until mid-to-late October. Turns out Edwards is a fast healer. After limited action in the preseason, the number three overall pick in the 2005 draft will be starting Week 1 as the Cleveland Browns host the New Orleans Saints. Likely a back-up in most leagues at the moment, Edwards is somebody to attempt acquiring as a starter if you're weak at the position and start 3 wide receivers. If he doesn't have any setbacks with his knee, Edwards could push the 1,000 yard mark and haul in 5 or more touchdowns in his first full season as a starter.

Steppin' Down

Deion Branch, NE?: Unhappy with his current contract, the Patriots lead receiver wants a new deal before stepping back on the field. Branch has been holding out since camp opened in New England and there's no signs he'll be back anytime soon. The Patriots gave the four-year vet permission to seek a trade last week, but despite coming to terms on a contract with both the Jets and Seahawks, neither side was able to work a deal out with New England. The holdout is now about to head into the regular season and those that drafted him need to decide if he's worth holding onto in the hopes he returns, or dropping him to free up a roster spot. At the moment, there's little optimism Branch will return anytime soon.

Ashley Lelie, ATL: Don't be fooled into thinking Lelie's move to Atlanta increases his value. At the moment, he sits third on the depth chart behind Michael Jenkins and Roddy White. He'll also be contending with Falcons tight end Alge Crumpler, for receptions. He's a decent receiver for your bench, but his name recognition is more valuable than the production you are likely to get from him this year.

Tight Ends

Steppin' Up

Ernie Conwell, NO: Zach Hilton filled in for an injured Ernie Conwell and posted 35 receptions for 396 yards with 1 TD in 6 starts last season. As a result, there were those that felt he'd be a reliable option at tight end this year. Instead, Hilton didn't make the final cut with the Saints and is no longer on the team. Conwell regains his starting position and if he remains healthy, could have 30-40 receptions on the year. If you only carry one TE on your roster, consider Conwell a solid option off the waiver wire during your starters bye week. If you're weak at the position, pick him up and play him when he has a favorable match-up.

Steppin' Down

Tony Gonzalez, KC: Don't be alarmed to see Gonzalez listed here, as he is likely to finish among the top three fantasy players at his position. The retirement of left tackle William Roaf however, means Gonzo could be relied on to block more this season. As a result, you may see a dip in his production. The heavily run oriented offense that Herm Edwards will install in Kansas City could also take some looks away from Gonzalez, but his TD total should climb back into the 6-9 range after scoring only twice in 2005.

Kickers

Steppin' Up

Michael Koenen, ATL & Stephen Gostkowski, NE: Two kickers that won battles in the preseason to earn their spot on the roster (Koenen in Atlanta; Gostkowski in New England). Keep an eye on their performance early in the year and grab one of them if the kicker you own isn't playing up to par.

Steppin' Down

Mike Vanderjagt, DAL: A groin injury has bothered Vanderjagt throughout the preseason and after missing two makeable field goals (32 and 33 yard attempts) in the final preseason game, there's cause for concern. At the moment, Parcells is uncertain whether Vanderjagt will be handling kicking duties in the Cowboys opener. Hold onto to Vanderjagt to see how he performs in the regular season, but he may not be your best option early in the year.

Defenses

Steppin' Up

Arizona Cardinals: Need a sleeper defense for Week 1? Take a chance on the Cardinals who have a home game against the San Francisco 49ers. With young players starting in a few positions for the 49ers offense, there's sure to be some turnovers.

Steppin' Down

New York Giants: The Giants should be a solid defense throughout the year, but their Week 1 match-up against the Colts is reason to bench them. Peyton Manning rarely turns the ball over and he doesn't get sacked much either. There's always the chance of letting up alot of points when facing the Colts as well. Start the Giants D at your own risk this week.