Week 1
9/8/06
With the preseason completed and kickoff to the 2006 season hours
away, we have a better feel for certain situations around the
league. Some players have seen their stock rise by outplaying
their competition For others, it may have been a trade that's
given them increased opportunity. In the case of running back
Wali Lundy, it is Domanick Davis' knee injury that has seen his
value on the rise. In this column, we'll take a weekly look at
the obvious, and not-so-obvious players whose stock is rising
and falling throughout the year. During the season, we'll have
suggestions on players that may be waiver wire gems, and others
that may be worth acquiring before the cat's out of the bag. Based
on recent happenings around the league, here's a look at players
you may want to squeeze onto your roster, and those you may want
to drop to make the space to add them before the season is officially
underway. We'll also comment on players already owned in your
leagues, but have seen their value change in the past few weeks.
Steppin' Up
Donovan McNabb, PHI: Already
widely considered a top 5 quarterback in fantasy leagues, McNabb
saw a boost in value these past weeks as the Eagles acquired Donte'
Stallworth from the New Orleans Saints. The addition of the Saints'
veteran provides McNabb a legitimate deep threat and presents
Reggie Brown with the opportunity to get open more easily. It
should also open up the middle of the field, making tight end
L.J. Smith an easier target for McNabb to find. With 23 TD receptions
in 56 games over the past 4 years, Stallworth should also provide
a slight boost to McNabb's TD production.
J.P. Losman, BUF: At the start
of the preseason, Losman was in a battle with 10-year vet, Kelly
Holcomb, to be named the Bills starting quarterback. A little
more than a week ago, after a preseason in which Losman completed
67.7% of his passes (42 of 62), averaged 8.3 an attempt, with
2 TDs and 2 INTs for 514 yards and a 90.4 QB rating, he was named
the opening day starter. While Losman is likely going un-drafted
in most leagues, he's worth keeping an eye on. Third-year wide
receiver Lee Evans is poised for a break out season as he steps
into the number one wideout spot following the departure of Eric
Moulds to the Houston Texans. Willis McGahee, a disappointment
in 2005, is capable of rushing for over 1,200 yards and scoring
double-digit touchdowns. Peerless Price also returns to the team
to start opposite Evans in the passing game. There is enough talent
surrounding Losman to make him a useful back-up in fantasy leagues,
but the O-line's performance, and that of Losman himself, will
ultimately determine if he's better left on the waiver wire this
season.
Matt Leinart, ARI: Despite a
holdout that lasted into the second week of the preseason, Leinart
saw action just a few days after coming to terms on a contract
with the Cardinals. In three preseason games, he has completed
61.7% of his passes (29 of 47) for 314 yards and thrown 2 TDs
with no INTs for a QB rating of 95.5. It's rare that a rookie
signal caller makes an immediate impact in the NFL (or fantasy
leagues), but Leinart is one that could break the mold. Kurt Warner
is the Cardinals starting QB, but he's injury prone and isn't
likely to be in their plans after the season. An injury to Warner
could put Leinart on the field sooner than expected, while a poor
record could have Dennis Green looking towards next year and plugging
him into the line-up over the final 4-6 weeks of the season. With
Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin at wideout, and Edgerrin James
in his backfield, Leinart will be a useful backup in fantasy leagues
once he's on the field. Come fantasy playoff time, he might even
be starting for some of us. It may be difficult to use a roster
spot on a back-up QB early in the season, but if you own Warner,
I'd suggest grabbing Leinart if he's available. If you're weak
at the QB position and want someone who could produce better than
what you have late in the year, you should also think about picking
him up.
Steppin' Down
Rex Grossman, CHI: Not really
a hot commodity to begin with, Grossman has done nothing to silence
his critics this preseason. Instead, his poor performance (51.9%
completion percentage, 1 TD, 2 INTs and a 60.7 QB rating) has
sparked a QB controversy in Chicago. Brian Griese was signed as
a free agent in the offseason to be an insurance policy to the
oft-injured Grossman. After a strong preseason campaign, coupled
with Grossman's poor efforts however, there are those that feel
he should be starting on opening day. Head coach Lovie Smith hasn't
wavered on his stance that Grossman is the starter, but a few
poor games early in the season, and the former Florida Gator could
be holding a clipboard as Griese takes over under center for the
Bears.
Mark Brunell, WAS: Prior to
the start of the 2006 preseason, there was reason to be optimistic
about Brunell's chances for success. The Redskins signed Antwaan
Randle-El in free agency and traded with the San Francisco 49ers
to acquire the services of three-year vet, Brandon Lloyd. Joe
Gibbs also made the decision to add former Kansas City Chiefs
offensive coordinator Al Saunders, to his staff and hand over
play calling responsibilities to the new arrival. With Santana
Moss, Clinton Portis and Chris Cooley already in place, the new
additions were expected to propel the Redskins offense to one
of the better units in the league. Instead, Portis' status is
up in the air after dislocating his shoulder in Week 1 of the
preseason. Meanwhile, Brunell has posted a 49.0 QB rating as he
completed just 16 of 35 attempts (45.7%) for 174 yards (5.0 yards
per attempt) with 0 TDs and 1 INT in 4 preseason games. With Portis
at less than 100%, and Brunell no longer being the player he once
was, it's time to look for a better QB option if Brunell is on
your roster.
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT: After
being involved in a motorcycle accident during the offseason that
doctors say nearly cost Roethlisberger his life, the Steelers
quarterback was back on the field and ready to go for the start
of preseason. Just days before Pittsburgh's kickoff to the regular
season however, Big Ben found himself sidelined due to other circumstances.
Having fell ill before practice on Sunday, Roethlisberger was
sent to the hospital to have an emergency appendectomy performed.
The surgery will prevent the two year vet from starting Thursday's
opener. His status after week one's game will be day-to-day, but
he could miss anywhere from 1-3 games. The missed time lowers
his value and is not the best way for him, or his fantasy owners,
to start the season.
Steppin' Up
Thomas Jones, CHI: After skipping
"voluntary" workouts in the spring, Lovie Smith demoted
the Bears leading rusher in 2005 and 2004 to second on the depth
chart behind 2006 first round pick, Cedric Benson. Benson however,
suffered a shoulder injury early in camp that prevented him from
participating in the preseason. Jones was dealing with a hamstring
injury of his own that kept him from getting on the field, but
he returned in time to see limited action in the last two games
of the preseason. With neither back seeing much, or any action
leading up to Week 1, it was uncertain which back would be Chicago's
primary ball carrier. Within the past few days, Lovie Smith cleared
things up for fantasy owners as he named Thomas Jones the opening
day starter. Benson will pressure him throughout the year, but
as long as Jones retains his position atop the depth chart, you
can expect him to see nearly 15-20 carries a game.
Wali Lundy, HOU: A sixth round
pick out of Virginia, Wali Lundy wasn't expected to factor into
fantasy rankings this season. With Domanick Davis missing all
of the preseason with a knee injury, and eventually being placed
on injured reserve as a result however, Lundy finds himself atop
the Texans depth chart as the 2006 season sets to kickoff. Consider
him a solid #3-4 RB as it's likely he'll be part of a RBBC in
Houston. Considering second year man Vernand Morency, and the
newly acquired Ron Dayne will be his only competition in the backfield
however, there's a chance he could develop into a #2 fantasy back
should he impress beyond the coaches expectations.
Correll Buckhalter, PHI: With
three knee surgeries in the past four years, Buckhalter was considered
a longshot to make the Eagles final roster at the start of the
preseason. He sat out the Hall Of Fame game against the Raiders
then missed the following weeks match-up against the Browns. When
Buckhalter made his 2006 preseason debut against the Baltimore
Ravens he only carried 5 times for 8 yards in his first action
in over a year, but it was a 48-yard catch and run that had Buckhalter
looking like his old self. The following week he provided another
encouraging performance as he carried 7 times for 31 yards an
added 16 more on 4 receptions. Currently, he stands to be the
primary back-up to Brian Westbrook on the Eagles roster, but with
the rotation Andy Reid uses at the position, you can be sure Buckhalter
will prove valuable in fantasy leagues.
Steppin' Down
Clinton Portis, WAS: No secret
here. The dislocated shoulder Portis suffered in week 1 of the
preseason has clearly hurt his value. While he's expected to return
early in the year (he may only miss a game or two), the Redskins
were concerned enough that they sent a 3rd round pick Atlanta's
way to acquire T.J. Duckett. The 5'11", 254-pound Duckett
is built to handle the dirty work in short yardage and goal line
situations--two areas of the game in which Portis isn't likely
to be used as often this season. As a result, Portis may rack
up plenty of yards, but his TD totals are likely to take a hit.
Depending on how successful the Redskins offense performs as a
unit, Portis could still reach double-digit touchdowns this season,
but expect Duckett to take 5-8 away from him at the goal line.
Chris Brown, TEN: Unhappy with
the Titans selection of LenDale White in the second round of this
years draft, Chris Brown made it known by asking Tennessee to
trade him. Now with Week 1 of the regular season approaching,
there are reports Travis Henry has taken his place atop the team's
depth chart. True or not, head coach Jeff Fisher has acknowledged
he'd like to get back to a more run-oriented offense using all
three backs on his roster. While establishing a more productive
ground game should be encouraging news to Brown owners, the rumors
of Travis Henry taking over the top spot, and Fisher's suggestion
that he'll work all three backs into the rotation are not. At
this point, only Fisher and his staff know which back they plan
on giving the majority of the Titans carries to this year.
Steppin' Up
Greg Jennings, GB: Jennings
was a second round pick by the Packers in this years draft and
expected to provide much needed depth at the position. Heading
into Week 1 however, head coach Mike McCarthy named him the starter
opposite Donald Driver. Robert Ferguson had the inside track on
the #2 spot at the start of camp, but after the rookie recorded
12 receptions for 328 yards and 1 TD in the preseason, it's now
his job to lose. Rookie wide outs don't often make an immediate
impact in the NFL, but as long as Favre is under center, and Jennings
is in the starting lineup, he should be no worse than a #4 receiver
in fantasy leagues.
Braylon Edwards, CLE: Edwards
posted 32 receptions for 512 yards and 3 TDs as a rookie last
season, but was forced to the sidelines and missed the rest of
the year after tearing his ACL in a Week 13 match-up against the
Jaguars. The injury was expected to keep him off the field until
mid-to-late October. Turns out Edwards is a fast healer. After
limited action in the preseason, the number three overall pick
in the 2005 draft will be starting Week 1 as the Cleveland Browns
host the New Orleans Saints. Likely a back-up in most leagues
at the moment, Edwards is somebody to attempt acquiring as a starter
if you're weak at the position and start 3 wide receivers. If
he doesn't have any setbacks with his knee, Edwards could push
the 1,000 yard mark and haul in 5 or more touchdowns in his first
full season as a starter.
Steppin' Down
Deion Branch, NE?: Unhappy with
his current contract, the Patriots lead receiver wants a new deal
before stepping back on the field. Branch has been holding out
since camp opened in New England and there's no signs he'll be
back anytime soon. The Patriots gave the four-year vet permission
to seek a trade last week, but despite coming to terms on a contract
with both the Jets and Seahawks, neither side was able to work
a deal out with New England. The holdout is now about to head
into the regular season and those that drafted him need to decide
if he's worth holding onto in the hopes he returns, or dropping
him to free up a roster spot. At the moment, there's little optimism
Branch will return anytime soon.
Ashley Lelie, ATL: Don't be
fooled into thinking Lelie's move to Atlanta increases his value.
At the moment, he sits third on the depth chart behind Michael
Jenkins and Roddy White. He'll also be contending with Falcons
tight end Alge Crumpler, for receptions. He's a decent receiver
for your bench, but his name recognition is more valuable than
the production you are likely to get from him this year.
Steppin' Up
Ernie Conwell, NO: Zach Hilton
filled in for an injured Ernie Conwell and posted 35 receptions
for 396 yards with 1 TD in 6 starts last season. As a result,
there were those that felt he'd be a reliable option at tight
end this year. Instead, Hilton didn't make the final cut with
the Saints and is no longer on the team. Conwell regains his starting
position and if he remains healthy, could have 30-40 receptions
on the year. If you only carry one TE on your roster, consider
Conwell a solid option off the waiver wire during your starters
bye week. If you're weak at the position, pick him up and play
him when he has a favorable match-up.
Steppin' Down
Tony Gonzalez, KC: Don't be
alarmed to see Gonzalez listed here, as he is likely to finish
among the top three fantasy players at his position. The retirement
of left tackle William Roaf however, means Gonzo could be relied
on to block more this season. As a result, you may see a dip in
his production. The heavily run oriented offense that Herm Edwards
will install in Kansas City could also take some looks away from
Gonzalez, but his TD total should climb back into the 6-9 range
after scoring only twice in 2005.
Steppin' Up
Michael Koenen, ATL & Stephen Gostkowski,
NE: Two kickers that won battles in the preseason to earn
their spot on the roster (Koenen in Atlanta; Gostkowski in New
England). Keep an eye on their performance early in the year and
grab one of them if the kicker you own isn't playing up to par.
Steppin' Down
Mike Vanderjagt, DAL: A groin
injury has bothered Vanderjagt throughout the preseason and after
missing two makeable field goals (32 and 33 yard attempts) in
the final preseason game, there's cause for concern. At the moment,
Parcells is uncertain whether Vanderjagt will be handling kicking
duties in the Cowboys opener. Hold onto to Vanderjagt to see how
he performs in the regular season, but he may not be your best
option early in the year.
Steppin' Up
Arizona Cardinals: Need a sleeper
defense for Week 1? Take a chance on the Cardinals who have a
home game against the San Francisco 49ers. With young players
starting in a few positions for the 49ers offense, there's sure
to be some turnovers.
Steppin' Down
New York Giants: The Giants
should be a solid defense throughout the year, but their Week
1 match-up against the Colts is reason to bench them. Peyton Manning
rarely turns the ball over and he doesn't get sacked much either.
There's always the chance of letting up alot of points when facing
the Colts as well. Start the Giants D at your own risk this week.
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